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Berrios has been uneven, at best, in his initial exposure to the majors. Hopefully he'll find his way. Regardless of what happens with the electric youngster, the Twins are going to need much more quality pitching in order be considered a credible contender within the coming year or two.
Here's an in-depth look at five prospects that could be considered the next wave, when combining closeness and caliber. At the end, we'll review some conclusions that can be drawn from where things stand with the foremost incoming arms.
Adalberto Mejia, LHP (23) - Class-AAA Rochester
Mejia, who came over in the Eduardo Nunez trade, was a particularly important addition because he slots into a Rochester rotation that is otherwise devoid of potential impact talent. Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean and Logan Darnell may get some looks but they are marginal big-leaguers. Mejia could really be something.
He's a big, sturdy, durable left-hander with good breaking stuff and an improving strikeout rate. He has made 10 starts at at Triple-A and has mostly looked up to the task, commanding the zone and inducing plenty of swings and misses. He is closest to the majors among Minnesota's higher-tier pitching prospects. Most believe he'll end up being a mid-rotation type if he pans out, though.
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP (22) - Class-AA Chattanooga
While Mejia is closest to the big leagues, he is not Minnesota's top pitching prospect. That honor, almost indisputably, goes to Gonsalves at this point. The southpaw ranked sixth on our preseason Twins top prospect rankings and has done nothing but enhance his luster this summer. He made short work of the Florida State League in his second stint with the Miracle (2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 11 starts) before moving up to Chattanooga and not missing a beat (2.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in nine starts).
The jump from Single-A to Double-A is considered perhaps the toughest for prospects, especially for a pitcher like Gonsalves who is said to lack a quality breaking ball. The lefty is simply dominating from his 6'5" frame and has been on an insane run lately with a 4-0 record and 0.80 ERA over his past seven starts.
In total this year, he has held opponents to a .187 average with three homers in 119 innings.
The fast-rising 22-year-old is prone to command issues that will likely become more pronounced as he starts regularly facing more patient hitters (by his own admission he got some help in his last outing – a complete game victory – because opponents "kept swinging at anything close to the zone") but that's not unusual for someone his age with his body type.
Gonsalves is the kind of guy that scouts would describe early on as "projectable," meaning that he had big room for improvement with his tall lanky build and improving feel for pitching. He is now turning into exactly the pitcher that evaluators optimistically projected. His ceiling exceeds any other starter in the system and it wouldn't be a huge shock if he got a look this September.
Tyler Jay, LHP (22) - Class-AA Chattanooga
Jay was a gamble. With the sixth pick in last June's draft, the Twins took the Illinois closer just ahead of Andrew Benintendi, who is currently batting .350 for the Red Sox, and Carson Fulmer, who mowed through the minors and has been on the White Sox roster for a month.
Rather than go after the dynamic offensive talent or the established collegiate starter, the Twins decided to pick Jay with hopes he could successfully transition into a rotation piece. The results, thus far, have not been great.
After signing, Jay went to rookie ball and finished out his season in his familiar relief role. This year the switch to starting got underway, and right now there is no indication that it will stick. Jay pitched well, albeit not amazingly, for 13 starts in Fort Myers before moving up to Chattanooga. There, he made two starts and a few relief appearances before being shut down amidst some pain. He was diagnosed only with nerve irritation in his neck, which is mostly good news but still not entirely encouraging.
In 15 starts between Single-A and Double-A this year, Jay pitched past the fifth only five times. He never exceeded 100 pitches. And at the end of July, with 83 total innings thrown, he came down with neck and shoulder problems. At the very least, this looks like it is going to be an extended project. Meanwhile, the players that Minnesota passed up to select Jay have rocketed to the big leagues and are already auditioning for prominent roles in 2017.
Not ideal.
Kohl Stewart, RHP (21) - Class-AA Chattanooga
When the Twins made Stewart the top high school player selected in the 2012 draft, no one really balked at the decision. He was widely viewed as the best prep arm in the nation. He lived up to his billing with a nice debut in rookie ball, and with a little projection, one could envision the athletic teenager growing into a frontline starting stalwart.
But he really hasn't developed. Sequencing, approach and fastball movement have enabled Stewart to continually achieve good results while climbing the minor-league ladder, but his peripherals have lagged behind. Strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't everything but it says a great deal about the sustainability of good performance and Stewart's 1.90 career mark is flat-out unimpressive, even when you ignore the expectations and pedigree. A 14.9 percent overall strikeout rate in full-season baseball just doesn't equate to a premium prospect, and that's mostly why Stewart has fallen off every list.
He's still young – one of the younger starting pitchers in the Southern League at 21, in fact – so there is time for Stewart to improve and find a way to overpower pro hitters. The innate ability is there, I think. But he's not really one to count on at this point.
Felix Jorge, RHP (22) - Class-AAA Chattanooga
A skinny hurler who also has never missed many bats, Jorge is not any analyst's idea of a premier prospect talent, but he deserves mention because of his consistent penchant for getting outs. Like the three above him on this list, Jorge has reached the Double-A level by age 22, a noteworthy feat. He was fantastic earlier in Fort Myers, posting a 1.55 ERA in 14 starts, and has performed well enough with the Lookouts following a rocky debut.
In the past, Terry Ryan has compared Jorge to current Twins starter Ervin Santana, noting similiarities in their build and fluid mechanics. Given his youth and sterling results – he has a 2.68 ERA in 278 innings dating back to the start of 2015 – Jorge demands some attention, but he has tallied a lackluster 213 strikeouts during that span. In order to become a real factor in the rotation conversation over the next couple of years, he's got to find a way to start missing some bats.
SUMMARY
Berrios was the clear prize of the Twins pitching prospect pool. The jury is still very much out on him based on his stunningly poor early results in the majors, but of course there is plenty of time left.
His troubling transition increases the urgency of finding potential rotation-fronting talent. The Twins will head into 2017 with few reliable commodities. While the organization could certainly be worse off with their top upcoming pitching talent than the five names listed above, especially after graduating the top arm, none of them realistically boast No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside, other than maybe Gonsalves.
The free agent market for starting pitching this winter is lacking at the high end, especially with Stephen Strasburg inking an extension in Washington. Options will be limited for finding true impact arms. This is why I feel that the Twins need to consider a major shakeup via trade – such as trading Brian Dozier this offseason – in order to infuse more pitching promise into the system.
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