One Key Offseason Question the Minnesota Twins Face at Each Position

14 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

These are pretty good questions, i think.

Catcher: yes, they can move Vazquez's contract and they probably should. Too many payroll limitations, and while he's capable of a hot month or 2, the overall performance at the plate is almost certainly going to be poor. The defense may be quality, but $10M is too much for a backup so if they can find someone to take him without throwing in more than like a C prospect, let's do it.

1B: tough call on Kirilloff. Such a sweet swing when he's healthy. he's never healthy. I'm less concerned about his defense; I think he'd probably end up doing fine at 1B if he played there consistently and knew that was his spot going in to a season, but how's he supposed to play consistently if he's never healthy? I think the answer is..."how much is he actually making?" UGH.

2B: I still believe in Julien, and hopefully a new hitting coach can help get him out of his own head. The talent is there, but he seemed to stop trusting his own pitch recognition abilities. Fixing him makes it easier to move on from Kirilloff too, as Julien could slide to 1B.

SS: I think Lee is the backup here. He looked solid enough, has been playing the spot fairly regularly, and it keeps Castro free to float (and not get exposed by playing him too much).

3B: Time to have a good conversation in the offseason about where Lewis fits best and involve him in the decision. Maybe it's 2B, maybe not, but this is the time to decide. Miranda should be the backup at at 3B and platoon with a LH hitter at 1B.

LF: I still think Martin has more to give, but he's better suited to a 4th OF role. Figuring out the platoon advantage might need to be something that is the lowest priority for now and gets "solved" when someone like Keaschall or Rosario breaks through. I think I'd rather patch it together with Martin, some Castro, and letting guys like Larnach and Wallner get exposed to more ABs against LH pitching. While I agree that you should take advantage of the platoon splits, the twins have overused this and run themselves into late-inning disadvantage. Maybe this doesn't need to be as much of a priority.

CF: I'm not opposed to giving Kiersey more of a chance. he certainly has nothing left to prove in AAA. I don't think there's much payroll money to fill here, and i don't want another Margot. let the "young" guys play.

RF: Wallner is going to have a slump, and it's going to make people crazy. Wallner is also going to work out of it. He's earned the right to do that. Give him RF and try not to let the K's make you too crazy.

Well-said. I especially like your comments about Julien. I think half of his problem is that he has so much pressure on him when he comes to the plate that it obviously has affected his performance, and if ANY team brings in a lefthander, even in the 3rd or 4th inning, he's out of the game. He has a very good hitter's approach when his head is screwed on right. IMHO, he will hit lefthanders over time, but he has to sometimes get a chance to do so...and I think his defense will be fine. Again, you can't just keep yanking him out of the game anytime a lefthander is warming in the bullpen...

...I also want to commend Nick on a very thought-provoking read (although I still think Lee is a AAA player at the moment).

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You don't sound too optimistic and your #9 suggests that perhaps it is Falvey.

I'm sensing that many believe in the core team and that a few subtle changes will bring different results. This is difficult for me to see. Without changes the Twins could easily slide below .500 next season. I'm trying to find out any information that ties a player on another team that the Twins could use to a player on the Twins team that that other team wants/could use to both teams better. These are challenge type trades and it is time for several of these transactions.

I really tend to agree.  I don't discount any opinion on this page, as all have the teams best interest in mind.  But the majority of the posts here tend to just move the same guys around the diamond, trying to find the best fit for everyone.  In my extremely humble opinion it isn't the position each guy on the roster is playing, or should play, it is the roster itself.  Just moving the same 26 guys around, giving them different roles or different positions, doesn't change the roster that finished 4th in '24.  I am not going to pretend to give advice on what free agents to target or what players to trade and for what return, but we can't go into April with the same roster, no matter where you play each of them.  We need a full time first baseman, someone who plays the position well and isn't a liability at the plate.  If not Santana, then trade for one; the current roster does not have one and this organization can't seem to develop one.  And we need a full time left fielder to take the roster spot Kepler had.  Buy one, or trade for one; again, he isn't on the current roster (it wouldn't hurt if he has a little experience covering center in a pinch, but not mandatory).  We can figure out 2nd and 3rd base from within; there is more than enough infield competition to fill those two spots; it may turn into a game of musical chairs, with one or more guys left without a chair at the end, but that is what healthy competition is.  Castro (if they are smart enough to sign him) can back up Correa if it all hits the fan again, and everywhere else as usual.  We have enough trade capital to get the two components I laid out above if the exiting ownership gives them the resources, and it will fill two holes that just can't be filled from within at this stage (again, assuming we don't resign Santana).  As for center......good luck as long as Buck is the main man.  Hope for health.  But it doesn't do any good to change coaches if you just give the newbies the same old same old.   

As for the pitching staff.........not tonight, it gives me a headache.  🥴 

Julien was not the only sophomore disappointment.  Should we really have confidence in the future of Louie Varland?  2024 was brutal for him both with the big club AND St Paul, both as a starter AND as a reliever (granted, that latter role was limited).  I mean I get that he is one of us, but in my opinion everybody seems to be willing to hold out hope for him, probably because he does have the stuff to strike out guys.  Unfortunately, he was a frequent server of hard contact when he couldn't get the strikeout.  

As bad as the Vazquez investment is turning out to be, it is true that the Twins do not have someone banging on the door to take his place.  Williams continues to show he can hit, but was hurt a chunk of the season and does not get high praise for his defense.  Camargo took a huge step backwards even though he was promoted for some time on the big league roster.  No one else has shown a glimmer of hope that they are a better option than Vazquez, and any available free agent is likely not going to contribute, either.  

As frustrating as it sounds, I do believe that we should go forward with his final contract year and then perhaps offer him as bait in July to someone that wants him more than we do.

On 10/22/2024 at 10:29 AM, jmlease1 said:

These are pretty good questions, i think.

Catcher: yes, they can move Vazquez's contract and they probably should. Too many payroll limitations, and while he's capable of a hot month or 2, the overall performance at the plate is almost certainly going to be poor. The defense may be quality, but $10M is too much for a backup so if they can find someone to take him without throwing in more than like a C prospect, let's do it.

1B: tough call on Kirilloff. Such a sweet swing when he's healthy. he's never healthy. I'm less concerned about his defense; I think he'd probably end up doing fine at 1B if he played there consistently and knew that was his spot going in to a season, but how's he supposed to play consistently if he's never healthy? I think the answer is..."how much is he actually making?" UGH.

2B: I still believe in Julien, and hopefully a new hitting coach can help get him out of his own head. The talent is there, but he seemed to stop trusting his own pitch recognition abilities. Fixing him makes it easier to move on from Kirilloff too, as Julien could slide to 1B.

SS: I think Lee is the backup here. He looked solid enough, has been playing the spot fairly regularly, and it keeps Castro free to float (and not get exposed by playing him too much).

3B: Time to have a good conversation in the offseason about where Lewis fits best and involve him in the decision. Maybe it's 2B, maybe not, but this is the time to decide. Miranda should be the backup at at 3B and platoon with a LH hitter at 1B.

LF: I still think Martin has more to give, but he's better suited to a 4th OF role. Figuring out the platoon advantage might need to be something that is the lowest priority for now and gets "solved" when someone like Keaschall or Rosario breaks through. I think I'd rather patch it together with Martin, some Castro, and letting guys like Larnach and Wallner get exposed to more ABs against LH pitching. While I agree that you should take advantage of the platoon splits, the twins have overused this and run themselves into late-inning disadvantage. Maybe this doesn't need to be as much of a priority.

CF: I'm not opposed to giving Kiersey more of a chance. he certainly has nothing left to prove in AAA. I don't think there's much payroll money to fill here, and i don't want another Margot. let the "young" guys play.

RF: Wallner is going to have a slump, and it's going to make people crazy. Wallner is also going to work out of it. He's earned the right to do that. Give him RF and try not to let the K's make you too crazy.

I agree with most of what you say.  I'm less sold on Julien, but certainly hope that you are correct.  I especially like the idea of involving Lewis in his go forward position.  What happened last year at 3rd and are you confident you will fix that?  2nd, if planned?  Same for 1b.

Excellent breakdown of the Twins position by position with several possibilities for each position.  My take:

Vasquez---First, I'm in the camp and always have been that he's eminently movable.  I will once again bring up the prospect of the Miami Marlins.  There catching situation might be the worst in baseball.  Starter Nick Fortes hadan OPS of .577 in 2024.  His backup, Pereda hadan OPH of .481.  That my fellow TD'ers is putrid.  They could also use a solid veteran to handle their young pitching staff.  

The target would be to acquire either former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (who is a decent match of salary for salary with the cost averse Marlins) or Jesus Luzardo who is 2 years younger than Alcantara at 27 years old and is LEFT HANDED !  BOTH are coming off injuries so their value is somewhat depressed, but both would be a major addition to the Twins rotation.  Each would need to pass a Twins physical.  Maybe the Twins throw in someone like Julien.  The Marlins were willing to live with Arraez's poor defense at 2B until they traded him to the Padres.  The Marlins currently have a 26 y/o 2B named Otto Lopez who showed some promise last year, and he bats RH.  Julien could be part of a platoon.  

First base:  I'm willing to stick with Kirilloff and Miranda for the time being.  I still love Kirilloff's swing and if Miranda won the job "full time" that wouldn't be a bad outcome either.  Take the "win" on Santana's age 38 season and forget about his age 39 campaign.  Acquire someone at the trade deadline if need be.  If we shed Vasquez and add Alcantara or Luzardo I would consider a trade of Ryan/Ober to add a young talent like Triston Casas.  He would be a tremendous addition for years to come.  I also move Jax into the rotation.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Festa.  Or, Lopez, Alcantara/Luzardo, Ryan/Ober (Casas trade), Jax, Festa.  OR...Lopez, Alcantara/Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Jax for possible rotations.

2nd Base:  We've got enough there with Lee and Castro.  If we dealt Julien I would consider a guy like Jose Iglesias because his defense at 2B/SS would be a tremendous upgrade over anyone else we have and could be a bridge for one year.

SS:  Carlos is our guy and Iglesias/Lee/Castro is plenty of depth.

3B:  This is tricky.  When you consider all the leg issues Lewis was having last year it's no wonder he looked so shaky at 3B.  I think he has the talent to play there but health will ALWAYS be a concern.  Lee as a guy to play there if Lewis spends time on the I.L. is a great fallback if a vet like Iglesias is available for 2B/SS.  I'm rolling with Lee right out of the gate in 2025.  No time in St. Paul.  I've got confidence in him.

RF:  WALLNER.

CF:  Buxton and Keisey.  I still think Buxton is tradable to the right team for the right price.  Part of that price is a VERY GOOD catching prospect.  The Dodgers have several.

LF:  Larnach and maybe a RH hitter that can cover all three OF positions.  If we move Vasquez AND Buxton, off-set with an Alcantara or Luzardo acquisition, could the Twins try to sign a Tyler O'Neill type OF??  Can we spend a little to get an AJ Puk/JKirby Yates type of RP if Jax moves to the rotation?

And one Wild card for the Twins next season is Emmanuel Rodriguez.  What kind of start does he get off to?  How much improvement could he show next season.  Running it back with the same cast of characters doesn't necessarily put us past or ahead of Cleveland, Detroit or Kansas City.  Some changes need to be made

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’ve been touting a sports psychologist for Julien since last June. He’s looked anxious, facially, since he first came up in ‘23……..a mix between anxious and arrogant. Odd for sure. Anyway, I don’t know how one goes from where he was over first 4 weeks of ‘24 to where he languished the next 5 months? Gotta be 95% between his ears. Hopefully, he can get help!! ………to me, any pressure on him above any MLB player is self imposed.

Leave him in AAA forever.

25 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

So, if I interpret you correctly, the player that was playing much improved (over last year) defense for the first couple of months this season, who is also the player that had an OPS+ of 130 last year, isn't worth developing at all?  That seems unusually harsh. 

Not every player development is linear.  It's pretty common to have a dip after a solid debut (the so-called sophomore slump).  I would agree with @JD-TWINS in that the problem seems to be at least as much mental as physical for Julien and that he may be outstanding if he can figure that out.  He may not work out, as may many players not work out, but I think he is certainly worth giving another chance or two to unlock what he can do. 

By the way, you know who else wasn't a good second baseman, particularly when he was young?  Rod Carew.  No, I'm not comparing the two of them as complete players, but defensively they are more similar than alike. The solution ultimately was to move Carew over to first base, where he graded out better.  Maybe that's in Julien's future as well.  

Julien is a poor fielder and simply a handi-cap on the field; his numbers in AAA this year were lousy also.

The Twins are not a AAA place to learn.

With the exception of Miranda, none of he Twins rookies were good this year and Julien is on the bottom of that pile.

6 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Excellent breakdown of the Twins position by position with several possibilities for each position.  My take:

Vasquez---First, I'm in the camp and always have been that he's eminently movable.  I will once again bring up the prospect of the Miami Marlins.  There catching situation might be the worst in baseball.  Starter Nick Fortes hadan OPS of .577 in 2024.  His backup, Pereda hadan OPH of .481.  That my fellow TD'ers is putrid.  They could also use a solid veteran to handle their young pitching staff.  

The target would be to acquire either former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (who is a decent match of salary for salary with the cost averse Marlins) or Jesus Luzardo who is 2 years younger than Alcantara at 27 years old and is LEFT HANDED !  BOTH are coming off injuries so their value is somewhat depressed, but both would be a major addition to the Twins rotation.  Each would need to pass a Twins physical.  Maybe the Twins throw in someone like Julien.  The Marlins were willing to live with Arraez's poor defense at 2B until they traded him to the Padres.  The Marlins currently have a 26 y/o 2B named Otto Lopez who showed some promise last year, and he bats RH.  Julien could be part of a platoon.  

First base:  I'm willing to stick with Kirilloff and Miranda for the time being.  I still love Kirilloff's swing and if Miranda won the job "full time" that wouldn't be a bad outcome either.  Take the "win" on Santana's age 38 season and forget about his age 39 campaign.  Acquire someone at the trade deadline if need be.  If we shed Vasquez and add Alcantara or Luzardo I would consider a trade of Ryan/Ober to add a young talent like Triston Casas.  He would be a tremendous addition for years to come.  I also move Jax into the rotation.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Festa.  Or, Lopez, Alcantara/Luzardo, Ryan/Ober (Casas trade), Jax, Festa.  OR...Lopez, Alcantara/Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Jax for possible rotations.

2nd Base:  We've got enough there with Lee and Castro.  If we dealt Julien I would consider a guy like Jose Iglesias because his defense at 2B/SS would be a tremendous upgrade over anyone else we have and could be a bridge for one year.

SS:  Carlos is our guy and Iglesias/Lee/Castro is plenty of depth.

3B:  This is tricky.  When you consider all the leg issues Lewis was having last year it's no wonder he looked so shaky at 3B.  I think he has the talent to play there but health will ALWAYS be a concern.  Lee as a guy to play there if Lewis spends time on the I.L. is a great fallback if a vet like Iglesias is available for 2B/SS.  I'm rolling with Lee right out of the gate in 2025.  No time in St. Paul.  I've got confidence in him.

RF:  WALLNER.

CF:  Buxton and Keisey.  I still think Buxton is tradable to the right team for the right price.  Part of that price is a VERY GOOD catching prospect.  The Dodgers have several.

LF:  Larnach and maybe a RH hitter that can cover all three OF positions.  If we move Vasquez AND Buxton, off-set with an Alcantara or Luzardo acquisition, could the Twins try to sign a Tyler O'Neill type OF??  Can we spend a little to get an AJ Puk/JKirby Yates type of RP if Jax moves to the rotation?

And one Wild card for the Twins next season is Emmanuel Rodriguez.  What kind of start does he get off to?  How much improvement could he show next season.  Running it back with the same cast of characters doesn't necessarily put us past or ahead of Cleveland, Detroit or Kansas City.  Some changes need to be made

It seems so difficult to find a match in trades. My major issue with the Twins putting the same basic team back in place for 2025 is what I perceive as a poor defensive team that really strains the talents of the pitching staff. So I look over the ideas and try to see some benefit in each.

C) Vazquez will be difficult to move. It seems like a move to add a catcher can start the ball rolling. I would ask Milwaukee if Lee is sufficient to acquire Jeferson Quero. I would also attempt to find out what the cost is for Harry Ford from Seattle. With a catcher in tow I would look to add some prospects to Jeffers and Paddack (maybe Soto and Amick) and see if this is acceptable to acquire Sandy Alcantara. I would accept Luzardo straight up for Jeffers. If either Alcantara or Luzardo is on board, maybe see if Boston likes Ryan and Topa for Kyle Teel.

Infield) Correa stays put. Lewis moves to 1B where he can relax and work on his footwork around the bag and concentrate on his bat. 3B goes to a rookie, Jordan Lawler (Duran, Kirilloff).Arizona needs a closer. 2B can be Eeles, Castro, or Julien. Keaschall will be ready soon. Miranda is still on the roster.

Outfield) Buck, Wallner, and Larnach return but I'm counting on EmRod and Keaschall at some point. Emmanuel is ready now, if his head is together and he is healthy and focused. Give McCusker a shot to show himself in Spring Training.

Perhaps the budget goes to near $140 million, who knows. There is going to be chaos if injuries happen to the key players again but hopefully some type of change occurs. Either way, we will all still be Twins fans next summer. Four trades should be enough but it is more than Falvey likes. It is his team for 2025 though. We shall see what he comes up with this offseason.

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

It seems so difficult to find a match in trades. My major issue with the Twins putting the same basic team back in place for 2025 is what I perceive as a poor defensive team that really strains the talents of the pitching staff. So I look over the ideas and try to see some benefit in each.

C) Vazquez will be difficult to move. It seems like a move to add a catcher can start the ball rolling. I would ask Milwaukee if Lee is sufficient to acquire Jeferson Quero. I would also attempt to find out what the cost is for Harry Ford from Seattle. With a catcher in tow I would look to add some prospects to Jeffers and Paddack (maybe Soto and Amick) and see if this is acceptable to acquire Sandy Alcantara. I would accept Luzardo straight up for Jeffers. If either Alcantara or Luzardo is on board, maybe see if Boston likes Ryan and Topa for Kyle Teel.

Infield) Correa stays put. Lewis moves to 1B where he can relax and work on his footwork around the bag and concentrate on his bat. 3B goes to a rookie, Jordan Lawler (Duran, Kirilloff).Arizona needs a closer. 2B can be Eeles, Castro, or Julien. Keaschall will be ready soon. Miranda is still on the roster.

Outfield) Buck, Wallner, and Larnach return but I'm counting on EmRod and Keaschall at some point. Emmanuel is ready now, if his head is together and he is healthy and focused. Give McCusker a shot to show himself in Spring Training.

Perhaps the budget goes to near $140 million, who knows. There is going to be chaos if injuries happen to the key players again but hopefully some type of change occurs. Either way, we will all still be Twins fans next summer. Four trades should be enough but it is more than Falvey likes. It is his team for 2025 though. We shall see what he comes up with this offseason.

WOW. If I had to guess or bet, I would put my money on NONE of these suggestions happening. 

Julien looks utterly confused at the plate.  He takes far too many called third strikes for a guy that was the "God of Walks" in the minor leagues.  He still has the potential to be a very good offensive player.  He's improved slightly at 2B but he's still a guy without a position he's above average at, whether that would be 2B, 1B or even LF.  

Because of his offensive potential, he remains an O.K. trade chip.  I've included him in trade speculation because he meets the requirement of a throw in kind of guy to get a deal done.  With Castro, Lee, Keaschall and Eeles there seem to be plenty of options beyond Julien that he could be included in a trade to help the roster in other areas.

Tony&rodney...I like some of your trade suggestions.  None of us here on TD ever speculate as wildly on a possible trade as the "Could the Vikings trade Darnold for Stafford" type of deal.  But trades are so hard to realistically imagine because like beauty, it's in the eye of the beholder.  Who knows what the Red Sox, or Dodgers, or Brewers think of our players and how they could help improve their team.

Baseball Trade Values at least tried to approximate what a "fair" trade could look like.  But I refuse to pay for what once was free, and there are still limitations as to what that site could actually do.  I agree that some young, currently in the minor leagues catcher who is blocked by an All Star type (Contreras--Brewers, Smith--Dodgers) should be a primary target, based on the lack of any catching prospects in our own system being anywhere close to ready.  I also maintain that Miami had interest once in Vasquez and I think they still do.  If Alcantara was the target (provided Miami would part with their former Cy Young pitcher ready to come off his TJ surgery) the salaries match up for Vasquez for Alcantara.  But not having a sense of what Alcantara's current value is after missing all last season it's tough to determine what else would need to be thrown in to get Miami to agree.  

Your other trade...Jeffers for Luzardo straight up is also interesting.  Vasquez would have to do more than catch 50% of the games.  Another deal would be needed to provide someone to be that #2 catcher.  The Twins would still be stuck with Vasquez's $10 million dollar contract for a poor hitter even by "catcher" standards.  But, the Twins would add an electric arm to their rotation who is also left handed and retain a catcher who is far superior to Jeffers. 

Getting a SP like Alcantara/Luzardo and giving Jax a shot at joining rotation also allows the Twins the ability to assess what they could get in a deal for either Ryan or Ober, or, possibly trade SWR to fortify a deficiency.  I'm not trading Festa.  I like what I saw last year and if I had a rotation of Lopez, (Alcantara/Luzardo), Ryan, Ober, and Jax, I'd consider having Festa in the pen with Varland.  This by no means would banish Festa to the pen forever.  It would just mean he's there until someone in the current rotation needed to go to the I.L. and then I'd build him up and put Festa in the rotation as the replacement.    

On 10/24/2024 at 8:23 AM, Reptevia said:

WOW. If I had to guess or bet, I would put my money on NONE of these suggestions happening. 

Curious as to why. No issues with your thoughts though. Do you believe the trades mentioned are not enough from the Twins? Too much? Don't like the acquired players? Specifics? Why can't these occur?

On 10/22/2024 at 7:28 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

So, go full White Sox?

To “Go full White Sox” would only require moving a couple of veterans. I don’t believe I suggested anything like that. 

On 10/25/2024 at 10:37 PM, tony&rodney said:

Curious as to why. No issues with your thoughts though. Do you believe the trades mentioned are not enough from the Twins? Too much? Don't like the acquired players? Specifics? Why can't these occur?

I don’t see the Twin’s parting with highly touted prospects Willy-Nilly.   Also, the end result would likely end in a payroll increase. I don’t see the payroll going up one penny over last year. More likely the other way. No way they will go after a SP. They will seek out some relievers who are a few years removed from an average season, and run everything else back minus the payroll casualties. 

16 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

I don’t see the Twin’s parting with highly touted prospects Willy-Nilly.   Also, the end result would likely end in a payroll increase. I don’t see the payroll going up one penny over last year. More likely the other way. No way they will go after a SP. They will seek out some relievers who are a few years removed from an average season, and run everything else back minus the payroll casualties. 

Perhaps you are correct that the Twins will run it back. The changes i proposed reduce the payroll a little bit and add players who drastically improve the defensive side of the game. This will make the pitching much better as well. The pitcher I add is capable of throwing high quality innings. Ultimately, Falvey will probably stand his ground with hoped for offense from the same group, as you suggest. I'm just not in favor of that direction and foresee further fourth place finished in the AL Central without some changes that result in better defense. Of course, everyone will see what they want to see, which is fine.

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps you are correct that the Twins will run it back. The changes i proposed reduce the payroll a little bit and add players who drastically improve the defensive side of the game. This will make the pitching much better as well. The pitcher I add is capable of throwing high quality innings. Ultimately, Falvey will probably stand his ground with hoped for offense from the same group, as you suggest. I'm just not in favor of that direction and foresee further fourth place finished in the AL Central without some changes that result in better defense. Of course, everyone will see what they want to see, which is fine.

Oh, I’m not in favor of it either. I just don’t have any confidence change is coming.