Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober the Two Best Reasons for Twins' Deadline Inaction

Ober and Ryan are fine. Pablo is good enough. Who's the 4th starter for the playoffs? Who's the 5th starter for the rest of the season?

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Deadline is really a bad time to look for a top-tier SP or even a decent SP. Last offseason was the time & we blew it.

They don't look for top pitching at the deadline because it is too expensive. They don't look for top pitching in the offseason because it is too expensive. They don't look for top pitching in the MLB draft because it is too risky. They don't sign top pitching as international free agents because it is too risky. Their plan for developing top pitchers is to grab a bunch of mediocre pitchers and hope some of them get better.

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They don't look for top pitching at the deadline because it is too expensive. They don't look for top pitching in the offseason because it is too expensive. They don't look for top pitching in the MLB draft because it is too risky. They don't sign top pitching as international free agents because it is too risky. Their plan for developing top pitchers is to grab a bunch of mediocre pitchers and hope some of them get better.

I largely agree with this, and like many share the frustrations implicit in this strategy.  I'd add "Their other plan is to trade for potential top pitchers from other teams".  This is how the Twins got Pablo, Ryan, SWR, Duran, and Alcala...likely 5 of their top 8 or 9 guys.  They've also traded for a variety of vets like Gray (a success) and Mahle (a failure).  Obviously they didn't do that this month...perhaps no good opportunities.

Given the payroll limitations, it is actually a fairly logical plan.  The FO can ask for payroll increases every day but have to live with ownership decisions.  Thus the FO has to draft, develop, and scout other organizations very well to succeed.  Drafting at a high success rate means taking mostly position players in the 1st round, because you can't afford too many 1st round flame outs (Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, etc).  Converting promising young position players (Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Arraez, etc) along with expiring vet contracts into viable MLB pitchers can work, and I think is pretty much understood to be their core strategy.  Supplement this with "sign and try to develop mediocre pitchers" as you noted which usually fails, but very occasionally gets them a gem or at least a useful relief pitcher until their arm falls off.   

It isn't an ideal way to get good pitching.  However all the other better ways involve more money, and at least this FO has put together a better and deeper pitching staff today than what the Twins have had for most of the past twenty years.

I think we have a decent 1-3 in Lopez, Over and Ryan. I get that we have some young SP coming up like SWR, Festa and Mathews, but we are one injury away from a pathetic rotation if we lose any of our top 3. We really needed bullpen help. Puk would have been very attainable for us and was the perfect fit for us. We need to play well in our 8 games against the Guardians of we're going to have any shot at all of even making the playoffs. I know anything can happen once you get there, but I have a hard time seeing anything other than a 3 game sweep early exit from playoffs with our pitching staff as it is.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They don't look for top pitching at the deadline because it is too expensive. They don't look for top pitching in the offseason because it is too expensive. They don't look for top pitching in the MLB draft because it is too risky. They don't sign top pitching as international free agents because it is too risky. Their plan for developing top pitchers is to grab a bunch of mediocre pitchers and hope some of them get better.

Off-season trading is like bartering. You give up something you have plenty of, to get something you need. Expensive is relative, if you give away a lot of value in an area you can afford to get a lot of value in an area you are starving that isn't too expensive, That's being smart & producing a healthy well-rounded team. I'll do that all day long. Deadline buying there is usually a premium to pay & less likely to know what shape of player you're receiving especially pitching. I agree FA is absurd & drafting high on pitchers is risky. But drafting HS pitchers & taking them slowly, controlling their development along the way minimizes that risk.

9 hours ago, GNess said:

I and I assume most of us on TD are. not billionaires so I (we) can't fully grasp what financial pressures the ownership of a MLB team face. (Yes, I understand that the value of MLB franchises over time have a strong tendency to grow considerably.)

However, it seems they have an obligation to the fans and regions in which they operate to do their best to pursue reasonable actions to create the best opportunity to win games and contend for the World Series title as often as they can.

The offseason didn't move the needle at all, and the trade deadline was a bust. (No offense intended to the new RP.)

It won't make me care about the Twins any less, but it will make me long for the day that  the Pohlads sell the team to someone or some group interested in competing and overall excellence.

 

What does "overall excellence" mean to you.  The Royals won the WS in 2015 and they are the only team in the bottom half of revenue in recent history.   They also have the worst win / loss record over the past couple of decades.   What team with similar revenues to work with is managing for overall excellence in your view?   

I quibble with the word usage of "reasons" in the title. I think they are the best explanations for the inactivity. The Twins are good enough as-is to compete for a playoff spot which is the bat the Pohlad's have set. Because of this, there was not any need to add payroll. I do wonder if Correa gets moved next year or in the off-season. It seems like the Twins are at the cusp of maximizing the value created by some good prospects to compete for the playoffs while cutting more payroll.

I'd like to know more about the offers made for Duran and Kepler.  Duran could have been flipped for a solid pitcher and a prospect. Then give Jax closing duties.

Unfortunate ownership (but predictable) didn't pay up to resign Gray.  Rotation would be very formidable with him along with the current cast of characters.  

Lopez, Ryan and Ober are all capable of pitching well in a playoff game. But none of them are a number one starter. That’s an issue that will continue to plague the team until they get at least a strong number two. It is disappointing that billionaire ownership, with a taxpayer financed ballpark, refuses to spend to make the team more competitive. 

15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We could have been as active as any team in baseball and STILL entered the offseason with all the precious "top 100 prospects." They'd still be there, for folks to salivate over.

 

Why? Not a single top 100 prospect changed hands this deadline. 

Not one.

Zip.

Zilch.

Nada.

You can look it up.

We could have had Puk and Flaherty.  Maybe a better outfielder than Margot.

All without costing a single one of those, based on what they actually cost. 

 

 

 

side note: It won't be 6 or 7, BTW.

Reports are that our division rivals wanted 1 of Jenkins, Lee or Rodriguez. You'd give that up for a Flaherty?

I wish I had your type of risk tolerance.

52 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

What reports?

Nobody traded a Jenkins, Lee or Rodriguez. 

 

If you have the Athletic, then Dan Hayes was the first to mention that. 

52 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They took less from the teams they dealt with. I wouldn't trade any of those players for either pitcher.

It's also an in division trade and I doubt the Tigers would allow the Twins to match their offer. 

If the Yankees would have won that trade then there's a possibility we could have traded for Nestor Cortes. Maybe Flaherty's medical scared some people off.

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

You doubt the Tigers would listen to an in-division trade for a 2 month rental? 

When the teams don't even play each other again this season??

 

Geez, I hope the Tigers are that stupid, but I doubt it.

Why would you want your division rival to go deep into the playoffs, make $$ Millions, and then have bragging rights.

Thats really not hard to comprehend. You ever heard about in-division tax? Thats been coined for a reason.

58 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

So Flaherty was gonna send the Twins deep into the playoffs, make them $$ millions, AND give us bragging rights?

 

That's something Falvine should have avoided??

The point was that the Tigers/White Sox wanted one of our top 3 prospects for a 2 month rental.

Also, I said I doubt the Tigers would allow the Twins to match the Dodgers offer. 

If the Twins and Dodgers offered the same exact value of a trade, why would they accept ours? Thats where the in-division tax comes into play.

What we know right now. Ober is on a heater.

Ryan has been Mr. Consistency while being almost as good as the start of if ‘23.  He may finish ‘24 better that even that. He has quiet confidence.

Lopez is getting sneaky Ace production.  
 

The FO and Ownership is clearly all in on riding the team we have to keep the winning window open for a decade.  The draft, they develop and they trade only to supplement a hole or too.  The gamble on their expertise to get rookies to produce and be above average.  They both have a chip on their shoulders and it just might work. Home grown money ball. 

On 7/30/2024 at 8:06 PM, bean5302 said:

Gleeman thinks the Twins will cut payroll even further this offseason. If ownership is unwilling to even make a minor salary pick up to grab Flaherty when the team is poised for the playoffs, I wouldn't hold my breath on what they'll do in the offseason. Even Cleveland was more in at the deadline than Minnesota.

By the way, the AL Central is winnable this year. The Royals are building. The Tigers are building. There's no guarantee the Twins are even in a position to be .500 next year. A couple injuries, and we're cooked.

A couple injuries and pretty much any team is cooked.

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know where you got that? Teams deal with injuries to their most important players all the time. The Braves, Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Yankees have all lost ace's for a ton of time this year.

Um.  The history of baseball.  The history of sports in general.  Does it always happen?  No.  Does it happen quite routinely?  Yes.  And by the way, take Judge off the Yankees, Gunnar Henderson off the O's and get back to me.  P.S. The two NL teams you mentioned are both behind the Twins in the standings.

On 7/30/2024 at 10:32 PM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

And what if they were worse?   Ask the A’s.  Ask the pre-Pohlad owned Twins.  
I would love a great pickup. I can’t control that. It didn’t happen.  I’ve moved on to the next game and I will continue to enjoy baseball.  

Oakland is presently in a down cycle.  However, the 1st 20 years of this century they were better than most.   They had (8) 93-win seasons.  One more than STL.  The Astros, Cubs, Giants, and Twins had 4.  The Phillies and Nationals had 3.  The Padres had zero.  The Blue Jays and 2 others had 1 while the Padre and 2 others had zero.  They also had the 6th best win percentage which was almost 100 points higher than the Royals.  Sometimes the measure of success seems to be dollars spent over wins achieved.