Grading the Minnesota Twins’ 2024 Offseason

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Noah Miller has the potential if the bat comes along, to be a key piece in an organization.  However we got an outfield and flipped prospects for someone who has a high ceiling as well but a much lower floor,  as Miller could be your defensive shortstop/no bat player right now.  

The bat is a big if. Let's say his bat does play. How many years will be needed before Correas skills erode enough to give Miller that opportunity? 2,3, maybe 5. A lot can happen between now and then.

Other than starting pitching, where would it have made sense to spend big on a free agent?  Who would they replace.  Certainly not Lewis, Correa or Kirilloff.  The combination of Julien and Farmer is great and we have Lee in the wings.  Buxton who is finally healthy, Kepler or Wallner?  No.  

How about the BP.  Spending big for the BP is the riskiest move in MLB.  They put together one of the top BPs in the league.  So, not the BP which leaves us with the obvious answer, starting pitching.  

There were 4 free agent SPs that are true playoff caliber SPs.  Nola and Yamamoto.  Were we getting either of them?  Snell and Montgomery’s demands have been so high that no team has been willing to sign them.  The other were not difference makers.  So, we can come up with some places they could have spent but none of them crucial.

How about a trade for a young/cost controlled playoff caliber SP.  Which SP matching this description were traded this year.   No doubt, several teams attempted to get this type of SP from Seattle/Miami or any other team like CWS with Cease.  Yet, none were made so the twins had a lot of company in their unwillingness to pay the price required to obtain these players.  Should we give them a bad grade for not over paying?

The thing that is being absolutely ignored is the potential to pick-up a SP at the deadline like the Rangers did last year.  We have talked all off-season about the many question marks on this team.  We will have answers to most of those questions at the deadline so why not wait until then to determine if we should give away assets like Brooks Lee that would contribute this team for several years into the future?  The first rule of business decision making is to have the best information possible.  That’s definitely not the case in making this decision now.

Some of the takes here are amazing.

”This roster is better than last year’s playoff team.  Period.”

Huh?  By what measurement?  We replaced the Cy Young runner up and a gold glove caliber CFer who hit over 20 HRs with an oft injured 5th starter and a replacement level back up OFer with no power.  We lost one of the more professional and accomplished hitters in the lineup (Polanco).  The difference between Carlos Santana and some combo of Donny Barrels/Alex K at first base doesn’t even come close to compensating for the losses.

“ I give ownership a B.  They said they were going to cut payroll, and that’s what they did.”

Not sure why that’s worthy of a B.  Everything they did this off-season screams, “we don’t give a **** what the fans think.”  The way they explain their financial situation with the team is competent fraudulent (if I hear “they’re losing money” one more time).  They basically confirmed the fact that they are the supervillains of the sports world.  The few remaining accounts defending their handling of the offseason have to be bots.

An F is generous for this club.  I’d vote to expel them for cheating on the exam, habitually lying about other kids to cover for themselves, and stealing other kids lunches just to throw them in the garbage.

This franchise is a joke.  Everyone has this delusion about being the Rays, and that being the way.  We’re actually more like the Oakland Athletics, and Kate Upton will show up at my door riding a unicorn with a giant blank check before this team wins a real playoff series (not the fake 3 game “play-in” wild card MLB money-grab round).

Ownership gets an F.  Not for cutting payroll perse but the way it was handled.  The TV situation had been promised to be fixed 4 years ago to get more people the ability to watch.  We are still waiting.  The FO only gets a c- this team is not better than last year.  Way too many "what ifs" and maybe in this lineup.  Overall off season grade D.  Let's also not forget they cut some scouts and pushed out Dick Bremer as tv announcer after 40 years and handled it very poorly.  

I give them a solid D. When you look at the prices on the trade market for Tyler Glasnow and Corbin Burnes I would have been pretty excited to see the Twins make one of those two moves. Both would have made them a playoff run contender.  

I think they will be a solid team that makes the playoffs but without the firepower to compete with the deeper and stronger rotations.  
 

If Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan step it up to near Sonny Gray level performance I could be proven wrong, but I think the chance of an injury in the rotation is high and the depth is not enough and not with enough upside.  
 

Too much was spent on platoon split type guys as well. If one half of the platoon goes down with an injury it leaves the team susceptible to being dominated by a certain handed pitcher.  

On 3/2/2024 at 9:04 AM, mikelink45 said:

These grades - all the evaluators - are premature.  It is like me giving grades to my graduate students on the first day of class.  Baseball is a funny sport that requires more patience than I have (although I like that) and the only real grade for the team is the end of the year.

Is the Pohlad grade because we did not like what we heard?  He told us the truth and no matter how we feel, it is his team.

I am ready for the season!

I agree with your comments.  Time and performance will give us our answer.  Ober and Ryan may well be improved and Paddack ought to be a solid starter.  The low grades seem to be based on the lack of movement in top pitching.  Let's see how the Twins do and what the next steps are at the trade deadline.  

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Some of the takes here are amazing.

”This roster is better than last year’s playoff team.  Period.”

Huh?  By what measurement?  We replaced the Cy Young runner up and a gold glove caliber CFer who hit over 20 HRs with an oft injured 5th starter and a replacement level back up OFer with no power.  We lost one of the more professional and accomplished hitters in the lineup (Polanco).  The difference between Carlos Santana and some combo of Donny Barrels/Alex K at first base doesn’t even come close to compensating for the losses.

“ I give ownership a B.  They said they were going to cut payroll, and that’s what they did.”

Not sure why that’s worthy of a B.  Everything they did this off-season screams, “we don’t give a **** what the fans think.”  The way they explain their financial situation with the team is competent fraudulent (if I hear “they’re losing money” one more time).  They basically confirmed the fact that they are the supervillains of the sports world.  The few remaining accounts defending their handling of the offseason have to be bots.

An F is generous for this club.  I’d vote to expel them for cheating on the exam, habitually lying about other kids to cover for themselves, and stealing other kids lunches just to throw them in the garbage.

This franchise is a joke.  Everyone has this delusion about being the Rays, and that being the way.  We’re actually more like the Oakland Athletics, and Kate Upton will show up at my door riding a unicorn with a giant blank check before this team wins a real playoff series (not the fake 3 game “play-in” wild card MLB money-grab round).

 

Santana is a grossly superior defender and a better hitter against LHP so IDK how you would come to this conclusion.

MAT did hit 21 HRs.  So did Joey Gallo.  Using only HRs as a measure of offensive ability makes no sense.  Using a more inclusive metric like OPS or better yet wRC+, Margot is the superior offensive player.  Taylor’s wRC+ for the past 3 years is 85.  Margot’s is 97.  The ZIPs projection for Margot is 100 and Taylor’s is 81.  Margot also has experience playing all 3 OF positions.  

Why are MAT and Solano unsigned if they are so valuable?  
 

Giving grades before the actual season begins is a good exercise and "everybody does it" even though we all know the real grades come once the season is complete.  That said, the tone-deaf messaging certainly deserves an "F."  

The #1 goal of our off season, by acclamation, was to get a #1 or #2 SP to replace Sonny Gray.  Our #2 goal was to find a solid replacement for Buxton should he spend copious amounts of time on the I.L.  They already had Austin Martin but he's unproven.  They acquired Margot at the cost of a Platinum Glove minor league SS who I will certainly miss, but with Correa, Lewis and Lee, not to mention De Andrande and probably two more SS's drafted this June I can live with that.

The glaring hole is the rotation.  DeSclafani is a major question mark.  Paddack as well.  Both have potential upside.  Both could leave the Twins scrambling with Varland and Festa replacements.   I for one am O.K. with Varland and Festa as well as Matt Canterino if he remains a SP.

However, it's fair to point out that the Twins still lack a LHP in their rotation and that the two best pitchers on the FA market are a 2-time Cy Young Award winner and a guy who pitched very well in the playoffs as a key member of the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers.  And both are Left-Handed.  

It's a little frustrating...BUT...I've never seen so much ambivalence toward a 2-time Cy Young winner.  It's not just the Twins ! EVERY team in MLB is hesitating to sign Blake Snell at the price Scott Boras wants.  Montgomery is a nice #3 SP.  He's not an Ace!  Montgomery is solid and he would slot at #2 ahead of Ryan and Ober.  But would he be significantly BETTER than them in 2024?  I'm not so sure he would.

I can forgive a lot of the off season because the Twins are bursting with young talent who while they may have some growing pains, they project to be pretty darn good in the years ahead.  I'm looking for a BIG deal at the deadline if the Twins are in position to make a run.  That's been my frustration with the Pohlad's ever since they bought the team.  All through the 2002-2010 era, with Mauer, Morneau and Santana their biggest deadline acquisition was...Shannon Stewart! 

I can be very forgiving if they make a deadline deal and land an Ace that propels the Twins to the World Series.  At this point, I can't be overly critical because if Blake Snell isn't taking 5-years and $150 million guaranteed from the Yankees what would it take to get him to sign with the Twins??  I don't think he's worth more than $25 million per year!  So far, I can be happy with what they've done and look forward to what Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner can do and hope for better health and production from Buxton and Correa.  That should be enough.   

I would give them a B. 

Team and system has the players to win the division again and has a chance to take the next step forward. Hopefully at the trade deadline or before they add a quality SP but at this point they are in a good spot... could it be better? Sure but they are being responsible with the payroll until the TV situation is resolved.. that is ... next year. 

Have the best roster in the central.. 

Have an Ace... 

Top 3 of staff are very solid and the 4 and 5 pitching spot has a chance to be better than most. 

Offensively we have a MUCH more well rounded team and bats 7 or 8 deep.. Damn good. 

Look at some other rosters around baseball.. WE are GOOD! 

Additions: 1B Carlos Santana, SP Anthony DeSclafani, RP Justin Topa, RP Jay Jackson, RP Steven Okert, RP Josh Staumont, OF Manuel Margot, OF Gabriel Gonzalez (#4p), RHP Darren Bowen (#27p)

Subtractions: SP Sonny Gray, SP Kenta Maeda, SP Tyler Mahle, RP Emilio Pagan, 2B Jorge Polanco, UT Nick Gordon, IF Donovan Solano, OF/1B Joey Gallo, OF Michael A. Taylor

Infield: B-

Catcher didn’t need to be touched, so no moves there is okay. Trading Polanco hurts but makes sense with Julien. I like Santana as a floor piece, I’d like to see what Kirilloff/Miranda can give you. If you aren’t getting enough production out of those 3, there will be 1B bats available at the deadline. 
 

Outfield: C

The Twins basically swapped Margot for Taylor, at a similar price. Not much else to be said.

Starting Pitching: D-

losing Gray, Maeda and Mahle in one off-season hurts, especially when your replacement starter is…(reads paper)…Anthony DeSclafani. The front office went back to their 2021-22 ways of getting a cheap veteran innings-eater who shouldn’t be on a playoff contender. If they want a legitimate shot in the post-season they’ll need a #2 starter at the deadline. 
 

Bullpen: A-

I actually like what this team did with the reliever core, adding loads of depth to take pressure off of high-leverage guys and turning the bullpen into a competition for hierarchy and having lots of depth. The only reason it’s not an A is because I would’ve liked one sizzled setup-caliber reliever behind Duran, but Jax/Stewart will do for now. I like their number of moves.

Overall Grade: C

Team didn’t improve very much, but did what they could with payroll limitations. I’m expecting a big trade deadline and busy off-season in the coming year, let’s see what the rookies can give us. Go Twins!

22 hours ago, Beast said:

Some of the takes here are amazing.

”This roster is better than last year’s playoff team.  Period.”

Huh?  By what measurement?  We replaced the Cy Young runner up and a gold glove caliber CFer who hit over 20 HRs with an oft injured 5th starter and a replacement level back up OFer with no power.  We lost one of the more professional and accomplished hitters in the lineup (Polanco).  The difference between Carlos Santana and some combo of Donny Barrels/Alex K at first base doesn’t even come close to compensating for the losses.

“ I give ownership a B.  They said they were going to cut payroll, and that’s what they did.”

Not sure why that’s worthy of a B.  Everything they did this off-season screams, “we don’t give a **** what the fans think.”  The way they explain their financial situation with the team is competent fraudulent (if I hear “they’re losing money” one more time).  They basically confirmed the fact that they are the supervillains of the sports world.  The few remaining accounts defending their handling of the offseason have to be bots.

An F is generous for this club.  I’d vote to expel them for cheating on the exam, habitually lying about other kids to cover for themselves, and stealing other kids lunches just to throw them in the garbage.

This franchise is a joke.  Everyone has this delusion about being the Rays, and that being the way.  We’re actually more like the Oakland Athletics, and Kate Upton will show up at my door riding a unicorn with a giant blank check before this team wins a real playoff series (not the fake 3 game “play-in” wild card MLB money-grab round).

 

Even with back-to-back 100+ loss seasons, the As have the highest win percentage in MLB among teams in the bottom half of revenue since the turn of the century.  They also have the most 90- win seasons.  They rank higher than the several large market teams including the Giants / Astros / Angels / Rangers / Phillies and Cubs.

Why are you using the departure of a couple players to rank a team.  Do you realize there is a very sophisticated ranking system used by the gambling industry to rank teams.  Looking across several of them, the 2024 team has slightly better odds of winning the WS.  The baseball industry also ranks team by WAR.  Those ranking also slightly favor this year’s team. Perhaps, it makes some sense to do a quick internet search of these things before making a statement like "some of the takes here are amazing" which of course is a nice way of saying ignorant.

If you listen to this board, signing Joey Gallo was the worst thing in the world. It blocked future stars from the majors, was the missing money to the Ohtani trade and might have caused the COVID epidemic.

This is part of a bigger issue. I personally am sick of the F grades around ownership and the FO.  Was Joe Pohlad impolitic in some of what he said? Yes. Yes he was. New guy. A few dumb words. However, the truth that people don't want to face (especially GATG but I will loop back on this) is that replacing the 2023 Bally money moving forward is a BIG challenge.   

Did the FO want to reduce payroll out of cruelty and the lust for a good challenge? No. No they did not. They were given a budget. They are operating within it.

But this board has increasingly become the home of the hate. Its not so much about the Twins anymore. Its about venting. We used to hate Joe Mauer because he wasn't worth all that money.  Now we love him because he's one of us and headed to Cooperstown.  I would guess in his quiet moments, Joe has a good chuckle about that.

GATG almost connected the payroll dots on a recent podcast. They went through the economics of the Padres streaming service this year ($99) and likely Twins subscribers (50,000) and got an inch way from the rightful conclusion and saying "Holy cow.  That construct leaves a $40-$50 million revenue hole." But they didn't say it.  Perhaps because that would invalidate about ten Patreon episodes ranting about money. Ironic, no? 

Ps. Go Twins. See you at the yard, meat.