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Back in 2019, when the Twins signed 16-year-old Dominican outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez for a $2.5 million as an international free agent, MLB's Jesse Sanchez described him as "the next Eddie Rosario." It's easy to see why that comparison would feel natural.
At the time, Rosario was a leading figure on the breakthrough Bomba Squad, who ended up winning 100 games and setting the all-time home run record. Rodriguez, like Rosario, was a lefty-swinging outfielder with surprising power from his smallish frame. Even right down to their makeup and mannerisms, you can see similarities between the two: their competitive swagger, their contagious smiles, their flair for dramatics.
One can understand why the Emma/Eddie parallel felt fitting at the time, and in some ways, it still feels fitting. But in another way, it has proven to be hilariously off-base, because the ways in which these two approach hitting could not be more different.
Rosario has carved out a very nice major-league career, while establishing a firm reputation as one of the least disciplined sluggers in the league. That hyperaggression keeps his ceiling something less than vaulted. During the Bomba Squad season, when he launched 32 homers to contribute to their historic total, Rosario drew 22 walks in 590 plate appearances. His 3.7% walk rate was was fifth-lowest in the league. Throughout his career, he has routinely been one of the hitters most likely to chase pitches out of the zone.
Rodriguez, on the other hand, is among the most patient hitters ever to come through the Minnesota system. His 20.2% walk rate at Cedar Rapids last year led the Midwest League by a sizable margin. The prior season, he had a ridiculous 28.6% walk rate in the Florida State League, before going down with a knee injury.
It's a strength that could become a weakness for the 20-year-old, making his big-league outlook tough to confidently project. "At times, Rodriguez’s extreme patience can border on passivity, and he’ll likely need to get more aggressive to combat polished strike-throwers," wrote Aaron Gleeman in his top prospects list at The Athletic. "Constantly being in deep counts without great contact skills has led to an underwhelming .242 batting average and 30 percent strikeout rate, both potential red flags for such a talented top prospect."
The reality is that a lot of pitchers in the minors have a hard time throwing strikes consistently. Certain hitters are good at taking advantage of this, leading to inflated walk rates, and often, those hitters are treated as novelties. Edouard Julien, for example, was still not much on the national prospect radar after leading the Double-A Texas League with a 19.3% walk rate in 2022. He also ranked third in OPS. He appeared on zero prominent top-100 lists last spring.
In a recent video breaking down the Emmanuel Rodriguez experience, Tom Froemming noted the statistical similarities between Rodriguez and Julien, who has ended up being the better "Eddie" comp. Both have been outliers when it comes to drawing walks in the minors. We saw how well that translated to the majors for Julien, who was a unicorn in terms of discipline and also one of the league's best rookie hitters.
The key for Julien has been his ability to selectively attack early in the count and punish mistake pitches. He has legitimate power, and in this regard, Rodriguez has a bigger edge. As we saw, power was the outfielder's calling card when he signed at age 16, and it continues to flash in big ways on the field. When Rodriguez gets a hold of one, he can crush it, helping him produce 35 home runs and a .495 slugging percentage through 183 games as a pro.
While Julien was largely flying under the radar as a prospect, Rodriguez is not. MLB Pipeline currently has him ranked as the No. 48 overall prospect in baseball. It's generally agreed that while he ranks third in Minnesota's system, he'd be first in a lot of others. Even with his known struggles to make contact, Rodriguez's power/patience combo is too enticing in its upside. You don't find this kind of skill set often.
Last year, only three qualified MLB players had a walk rate above 15%: Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani. Lower the qualified threshold to 300 plate appearances and you've only got eight players (including Julien) who met that standard. That's 2.7 percent of the entire player pool.
You'll be hard-pressed to find a single bad offensive player among this ultra-patient cohort. Each of the eight had a wRC+ of 115 or better. Schwarber had the lowest on-base percentage, at .343, but he had a .197 batting average. He also hit 47 homers and drove in 108 runs. Schwarber exemplifies how this offensive profile can elevate a player beyond his contact struggles. Julien, Ryan Noda and Brandon Belt all had K-rates above 30% to go along with their 15% walk rates, but were solidly above-average offensive producers, nonetheless.
So while the questions surrounding Rodriguez at this point mainly pertain to his floor, there's a good argument that his extreme level of patience–combined with power and defensive value–give E-Rod a fairly sturdy one. Meanwhile, his upside resides at the level of Soto and Aaron Judge: players capable of drawing 100 walks while hitting 30 to 40 home runs. Those are elite offensive forces who can win multiple MVP awards.
All of this the Twins must weigh, in their pursuit of frontline starting pitching. To land a true prize capable of becoming a long-term fixture atop the rotation, they'll likely need to be willing to part with a talent of this caliber. Comparing Rodriguez to No. 2 prospect Brooks Lee (whose name, along with that of Julien, is also being bandied about in hypothetical trade scenarios) creates an interesting floor-versus-ceiling dichotomy. Which do you value more: the colossal upside of a Rodriguez or the stable certainty of a Lee?
We'll likely know a lot more about Rodriguez and his true potential after this 2024 season, as he takes his game to the high minors and contends with higher-caliber pitching. One could very easily see him ascending to the highest tier of prospects, or fading dramatically because of his passivity and contact issues. That's what makes this such a pivotal moment.
I wrote recently about how good the Twins front office has been at replacing stars they trade away. Structurally, they are currently set up to do so in Rodriguez's case, with several lefty-swinging outfielders on hand (including Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach), plus the new No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins poised to rise fast.
But if Rodriguez turns into what he could turn into, there's no replacing that. If he develops into the production equivalent of Eddie Rosario, that's not a horrible outcome. As Rosario has, he can have a solid career. The Twins will still feel okay about trading him to get the rotation boost they needed, just as they feel fine about trading Luis Arráez for Pablo López last January. If Rodriguez turns into anything approximating the production equivalent of Juan Soto, though, that's a franchise-altering miscue that will be lamented for decades.
These are the kinds of weighty decisions being considered by a front office equipped with a top-heavy farm system; a clear need at the front of the rotation; and limited funds with which to address that need. The high stakes make for an exciting yet harrowing moment of reckoning for Derek Falvey and the Twins.
Would you be open to dealing Rodriguez, if that's what it takes to acquire a multi-year Pablo López co-ace, such as Jesus Luzardo or Logan Gilbert (whom Jamie Cameron wrote about here on Monday)? Or is your attitude more of a keep-at-all-costs, even if that means trading Lee instead, or aiming lower in your scale of starting pitching acquisition?
This winter might be the last chance to trade Rodriguez while his value is sky-high--or it might be the last time time trading him even feels remotely plausible.
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