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    Which Catcher Should the Twins Trade This Offseason?

    Eric Blonigen

    By Eric Blonigen

    To make the 2025 team better, one of the Twins' starting catching duo is likely to be traded. But which one?

    Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

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    Following the collapse of the 2024 Twins, everyone involved--from ownership down--agreed on one thing: the 2025 team will be better. That said, there are two facts that make this endeavor more easily said than done. First, the Twins will face similar payroll constraints to the 2024 season. Second, their in-house players are set to consume virtually all of the budgeted payroll, with no fewer than 13 guys set for raises through arbitration. To square these challenges with Joe Pohlad’s promise of improvement, some tough decisions will need to be made.

    One such decision is around the Twins’ catching tandem, as it seems almost certain that one of Ryan Jeffers or Christian Vázquez will be traded to improve the team, through freeing up cash or trading for value. A club paying $36 million to its shortstop, $21 million to its ace starter and $15 million to its center fielder can also pay $15 million for its catchers, but only if they're willing to carry a total payroll in excess of $160 million. Since it looks like the Twins will be at least $25 million shy of that mark, they need to make a move.

    The Case for Trading Christian Vázquez
    The defense-first Vázquez is entering the final season of his three-year, $30-million free-agent deal. As a backup catcher, he’s been good. Trading him would make sense purely from a cost-cutting angle, as he’s set to be the fourth-highest-paid guy on the team, behind Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton. That’s tough to justify when there are multiple holes on the roster that need filling.

    It’s unlikely a team would take his contract on in full, without some other enticement. Baseball Trade Values has him worth -$7.8 million compared to his contract. As a result, moving on would require the Twins to include at least one prospect to even the books. If they can swallow that bitter pill, the newfound flexibility could help the team accomplish any number of free-agent signings. They could add a couple legitimate weapons to the bullpen, sign a real first baseman or DH, or sign a mid-rotation starter with some yellow flags to their name.

    Should the Twins trade Vázquez, they would likely need to sign another defensive-minded catcher to a cheap, one-year deal, but there's good depth in that class of backstop on the market this winter.

    The Case for Trading Ryan Jeffers
    Offense-first Jeffers is hitting arbitration for the second time, and MLB Trade Rumors has him set to earn around $4.7 million. For a typical team with a typical payroll, this would be a drop in the bucket and well worth the expenditure.

    For the Twins, having an extra $5 million could translate into a legitimate role player elsewhere on the field--for example, it could be enough to re-sign Carlos Santana. The player they would find instead of Jeffers would almost certainly carry a higher workload than the 218 games and 800 plate appearances Jeffers has amassed over the last two years.

    Beyond the payroll re-allocation, Jeffers would carry some real surplus value, too. Baseball Trade Values has him worth $13.1 million beyond his likely arbitration salaries the next two seasons, so he would net legitimate prospects or be a significant piece toward acquiring a contributing major leaguer. He could be bundled with prospects toward a cost-controlled frontline starting pitcher or impact bat. Another benefit to trading him could be the (relative) predictability associated with a less streaky player.

    Should the Twins decide to trade Jeffers, they would either need to sign or trade for a bat-first catcher to complement Vázquez, or decide to forego offense from the catcher position and sign a defensively-minded backup catcher on the cheap.

    Which option will the Twins take? Which option should they take? Will they focus on cost-cutting, or upside? Prioritize offense, or defense? It likely comes down to the relative offers, and how the front office prioritizes roster construction once the Pohlads issue their payroll edict for the season.

    Eric has been a Twins fan for 35 years. He is thrilled to be participating in this amazing community of fans and writers.
    Follow Eric Blonigen on Twitter: Ericblonigen

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    stringer bell

    stringer bell 25,880

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Just a note about caught stealing percentages--most of the time a stolen base is on the pitcher, not a catcher. Of all stolen base attempts, a catcher only truly has a chance on maybe 30% of the time. This is especially true when a right hander is on the mound and the Twins probably threw the highest percentage of right handed innings in the majors last year. 

    The way to limit stolen bases is not allow runners on base and to have a lead. I think Vázquez is probably .01 second quicker releasing the ball than Jeffers and might have a little bit stronger arm. In a situation where hundreths decide safe and out, that is significant. That said, Jeffers is about average in today's game as a thrower in limiting stolen bases. 

    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,204

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    18 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Why did the Twins sign Vazquez in the 1st place? Because Jeffers can't handle primary catching duties. FO's hope after trading away Garver & Rortvedt was that Jeffers could, but he has bombed. Later hoped with the help of Vazquez, Jeffers would grow into it, but he hasn't. After Vazquez leaves, we have nobody to take his place. And I'm afraid Jeffers will flounder again because we have no one in the system that can take up the slack. Going to FA agency again will not be cheap & because we have no one else I'm afraid that the Twins will extend Jeffers with a ridiculous contract because Boras is his agent for an average at best catcher. What should the Twins do?

    In the 1st place, they shouldn't have traded Garver & Rortvedt & traded Jeffers instead. Then the contract Vazquez wouldn't have been needed & we would gotten much more for Jeffers in trade to plug more of our holes namely pitching at the time. But that time has passed. We desperately need an above-average catcher for the future. Vazquez is gone after this season & Jeffers has 2 more years. IMO extending Jeffers should be out of the question. Since we signed Vazquez, I've advocated trading Jeffers & pick up 2 very promising young MLB-ready catcher for Vazquez to have 3 years to mentor. 2 years have been wasted but we still have one more year for Vazquez to mentor such a catcher.

    I don't see Falvey having vision enough past this offseason so I see the Twins not doing anything & really hurting at catching for many years after Vazquez is gone. Because picking up another decent catcher in FA will not be cheap & I don't see Falvey able to initiate a decent trade for one. 

    I agree - don’t see Falvey making any changes at Catcher due to Vazquez restrictive $$ cost and Jeffers completely unimpressive defense AND his 3.5 months of really poor offensive production to finish the season. Can’t imagine who wants this with any sort of return. No real replacement available in the system that is clear cut right now.

    Garver though, not the answer at Catcher …… no issue with trading him. He’s played 54 - 87 - 114 games over the past 3 years. I don’t think he’s caught more than 40 games in those 3 years combined. He’s hit .207 - .270 - .172 in his last 3 seasons. He has a nice ‘23 but again he played 87 games at nearly all being the DH. His “availability” over his career has been terrible, even when used as a DH. This past season is his total game played high at 114.

    Otaknam

    Otaknam 1,245

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I am all for trading Vasquez. His contract was a major mistake, given his poor offensive production. His above average defense and framing does not justify a $10 million per year contract. But who would take a backup catcher at that price? So that means that Jeffers is the more likely trade candidate and would bring more value in a trade. The problem with that is the team is left with Vasquez, an offensive black hole being paid $10 million. 

    Fire Dan Gladden

    Fire Dan Gladden 4,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I asked this elsewhere, and I will ask it again here:

    As a group, where do the Twins catchers rank amongst teams in the major categories?  I would bet they are top 10 compared to other teams in most of the big stats.  Doesn't seem like a great reason to break up a pairing that seems to work well within the system and has been healthy (not easy at this position). 

    bean5302

    bean5302 9,277

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    35 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    I asked this elsewhere, and I will ask it again here:

    As a group, where do the Twins catchers rank amongst teams in the major categories?  I would bet they are top 10 compared to other teams in most of the big stats.  Doesn't seem like a great reason to break up a pairing that seems to work well within the system and has been healthy (not easy at this position). 

    Twins ranks from their catchers (while playing catcher)
    fWAR = 15th
    wRC+ = 16th
    CS% = 27th

    Also, just as a side note, other posters are not your research team. 
    fangraphs.com
    baseballreference.com
    baseballsavant.com

    Use them on your own sometime.

    bean5302

    bean5302 9,277

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

    Just a note about caught stealing percentages--most of the time a stolen base is on the pitcher, not a catcher. Of all stolen base attempts, a catcher only truly has a chance on maybe 30% of the time. This is especially true when a right hander is on the mound and the Twins probably threw the highest percentage of right handed innings in the majors last year. 

    The way to limit stolen bases is not allow runners on base and to have a lead. I think Vázquez is probably .01 second quicker releasing the ball than Jeffers and might have a little bit stronger arm. In a situation where hundreths decide safe and out, that is significant. That said, Jeffers is about average in today's game as a thrower in limiting stolen bases. 

    KC had a 48% CS rate as a team this year, though they were a huge outlier. 9 TEAMS were above 30.00%. Guess their catchers must be better than perfect.

    TopGunn#22

    TopGunn#22 4,223

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    So bean has answered the question of where Twins catchers rank and they are middle of the pack and then downright horrible at throwing out base  stealers (which is probably more on our pitchers ability to hold runners than on their throwing ability).

    I don't think Jeffers is any better than mediocre.  I'd trade him to Miami for Sandy Alcantara or Jesus Luzardo.  Then I'd deal Buxton to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing.  Rushing is blocked by All Star Will Smith.  The Dodgers even had Rushing playing some outfield to see if they could get his bat up to the big leagues but they never pulled the trigger.

    The Dodgers need a CF.  When was the last time you couldn't name who was playing CF for the Dodgers.  They have a gaping hole there.  Buxton's $15 million dollar contract would be a drop in a bucket to them.  The Dodgers currently have 2 other highly rated minor league catchers in addition to Rushing so they would be dealing from a position of surplus.

    You'd add $10 million for Alcantara but subtract $15 million for Buxton and nearly $5 million for Jeffers.  You'd get a highly rated young catcher and finish out the final season of Vasquez.  If Rushing plays well in 2025 the Twins could always look to deal Vasquez at the trade deadline.  You'd also create some space to add around the fringes, to the bullpen and a RH outfield bat.

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,262

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    One down year shouldn't automatically create a dismissal of any prospect, but Winkel, Cardenas, and Cosetti all had down/disappointing seasons.  Baez and Ruiz weren't great by any means, but didn't bottom out either. Olivar clearly seems to have the best offensive potential at this point, but he's barely played at AA, and I'm not sure about his defense at this point.

    I think it's a little unfair to use Baldelli's use of Camargo as an automatic negative. IMO, there is a tendency for Rocco to often work young guys in slowly, more slowly than I would agree with. And Camargo's time with the Twins was kind of a mixed baggage, but seldom for long. He battled an injury or two this season, but was very productive in 2023. FWIW, Williams wasn't quite as good this season as last, but it's my understanding he's worked very hard the last couple of years on his defense. But even with a poor 2024, if you look at Camargo the orwvious 2 years, and his career 31% caught stealing %, he's definitely the #3 catcher currently. Very frustrating to me he didn't get any legitimate looks in 2024. 

    Sysrem catching didn't look this bad coming in to 2024, but it sure doesn't look very good going in to 2025 at this point. 

     

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

    Just a note about caught stealing percentages--most of the time a stolen base is on the pitcher, not a catcher. Of all stolen base attempts, a catcher only truly has a chance on maybe 30% of the time. This is especially true when a right hander is on the mound and the Twins probably threw the highest percentage of right handed innings in the majors last year. 

    The way to limit stolen bases is not allow runners on base and to have a lead. I think Vázquez is probably .01 second quicker releasing the ball than Jeffers and might have a little bit stronger arm. In a situation where hundreths decide safe and out, that is significant. That said, Jeffers is about average in today's game as a thrower in limiting stolen bases. 

    Jeffers pop time is actually better than Vazquez's, and not really bad at all. Vazquez was 1.96 (54th percentile) and Jeffers 1.93, which was 75th percentile. 

    Fire Dan Gladden

    Fire Dan Gladden 4,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    Twins ranks from their catchers (while playing catcher)
    fWAR = 15th
    wRC+ = 16th
    CS% = 27th

    Also, just as a side note, other posters are not your research team. 
    fangraphs.com
    baseballreference.com
    baseballsavant.com

    Use them on your own sometime.

    Thank you for putting me in my place.  Your positive communication towards me is a beacon for all.

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,948

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Also, just as a side note, other posters are not your research team. 

    While I was a charter subscriber to Baseball America, created my own analytics in the 1990s as a manager, and have been tuned to the sources you mention since their beginnings, not all people follow numerous baseball sites or resources. 

    You add a number of useful comments to Twins Daily but should not let the poor close to the 2024 Twins season be reflected in turning negative on other posters. Sorry to be the corrective person but you have added too many reasonable posts to digress into personal attacks.

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,948

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    So bean has answered the question of where Twins catchers rank and they are middle of the pack and then downright horrible at throwing out base  stealers (which is probably more on our pitchers ability to hold runners than on their throwing ability).

    I don't think Jeffers is any better than mediocre.  I'd trade him to Miami for Sandy Alcantara or Jesus Luzardo.  Then I'd deal Buxton to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing.  Rushing is blocked by All Star Will Smith.  The Dodgers even had Rushing playing some outfield to see if they could get his bat up to the big leagues but they never pulled the trigger.

    The Dodgers need a CF.  When was the last time you couldn't name who was playing CF for the Dodgers.  They have a gaping hole there.  Buxton's $15 million dollar contract would be a drop in a bucket to them.  The Dodgers currently have 2 other highly rated minor league catchers in addition to Rushing so they would be dealing from a position of surplus.

    You'd add $10 million for Alcantara but subtract $15 million for Buxton and nearly $5 million for Jeffers.  You'd get a highly rated young catcher and finish out the final season of Vasquez.  If Rushing plays well in 2025 the Twins could always look to deal Vasquez at the trade deadline.  You'd also create some space to add around the fringes, to the bullpen and a RH outfield bat.

    Like many Twins fans, I have wondered how the team roster can be tweaked over the offseason to improve the talent for 2025. This seems like something we always did once the World Series was completed but the disappointing conclusion to 2024 has us searching now.

    Byron Buxton has a no trade clause so the impetus would need to come from him on any trade. He has likely reached some point of frustration and may be open to a move. The Dodgers do make sense because they actually have some pieces in place for replacement value, such as James Outman. I put this exact trade idea (Buxton for Rushing) down as one of my early choices for change. The loss of Buxton would hurt deeply inasmuch as Byron provides name recognition, excitement, and great value .... when he is actually in the lineup. 

    Luzardo or Alcantara would both look like decent gambles as well. Miami may be open to a trade. I do wonder what Seattle would want for their blocked minor league catcher, Harry Ford. 

    In any event, as I work through my guesses (like others) the main focus for me is talent that includes athleticism. Athleticism to me means speed, fielding ability, arm strength, and ability to hit. Tough task for Falvey ahead.

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,948

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 hours ago, RpR said:

    Trade Jeffers for Rortvedt - Although - his batting average is up but his defense fell to Jeffers  level this  year.

    Some thing screwed him up.

    Doubt that the Twins or many Twins Daily fans see Rortvedt as an option at catcher. Yet, if Tampa Bay would include Uceta and/or Rasmussen along with BR then perhaps that works. Ideas are worth a thought at the very least.



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