Brian Dozier: I'll Be A Free Agent

If someone gave me a lottery ticket to scratch off in nine months, and said it was guaranteed to be worth between $18 and ??? Million Dollars, I'd say I was excited about that.  Even if it meant I had to move to another state for a few years.  

 

So what?  There is one thing wanting to do something, and another publicly saying that you want to do something.

 

So you're not upset with what he said, you're just upset that he said it? What did you want him to do? Lie?

My guess the Twins have told Dozier's agent that they are not interest in a 3 year or longer extension. Dozier understands either he gets traded at the deadline, he accepts the QO if he continues playing well, or becomes a Free Agent.

 

The Twins must set aside budget for extensions for their young players (Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Sano, Polanco, Berrios) starting in 2020 or sooner.

 

If he is on the roster all year, then he probably gets the QO and the market will dictate where he plays next year.

 

For valuation: it's not just the 2nd round pick but also the compensation that needs to be included. Is Morrison, Gordon, 2nd pick at $7 million better value than Dozier at $15 million for three years?

 

So you're not upset with what he said, you're just upset that he said it? What did you want him to do? Lie?

 

Exactly. This is burying your head in the sand -- which serves no purpose.

You both may be interested to hear that I talked with Dozier a bit about the free agent market and what he expects next year. I'll include it in the Twins Daily Nightly Wrap later tonight.

Did you ask him what is important to him in his next contract? And how much would it take to get a deal done?

I honestly don´t have a strong feeling about what the Twins should do about Dozier. I read and value most of the articles and comments here recently but I've yet to be swayed one way or the other. Its pretty much the same for me with the Vikings QB situation. But while the Vikes have to make a firm plan now, maybe it´s best for the Twins to let the coming months play out before committing to anything. I see the progress of both Gordon and Polanco as wild cards this spring. As someone mentioned earlier, if Lewis keeps advancing at a rapid pace, he becomes a factor in this. I love Dozier and think he has a couple of outstanding seasons left in the tank and the team can be contenders for a couple of seasons. Balance that with the potential damage of locking Dozier into a reasonably hefty 5-year contract that could negatively affect the team in the last couple of years when they could be stronger contenders. Best case scenario for me is that the young guys step up this summer and show that they can close the clear gap in production and provide solid middle infield defense in 2019. Until then, I´m on the fence. 

 

 

Again:  If the baseball industry perceived that Dozier had as much value as some of the Twins' fans around here do, he would had been a Dodger right now.   Also, the people are talking about the value of Dozier's "leadership" to the Twins seem to keep forgetting that in his career year the Twins lost 103.

 

I value him as much as the industry does.

 

You don't know what the Twins were asking for in order to trade Dozier, so how can you even make such a claim?  

 

This is not about Cuddyer.  That's another story, but since you brought it up, the issue I had with Cuddyer started with his performance at game 163 at the WSux and what he said just afterwards.  Another story and long time ago. 

 

Again:  If the baseball industry perceived that Dozier had as much value as some of the Twins' fans around here do, he would had been a Dodger right now.   Also, the people are talking about the value of Dozier's "leadership" to the Twins seem to keep forgetting that in his career year the Twins lost 103.

 

I value him as much as the industry does.

 

 

 

 

Well, these comments make it pretty clear that, like with Cuddyer, you in fact DO have an issue with Dozier's "leadership". For a guy who would castigate anyone who even mentioned a pitchers W-L record, it's amusing that you are informing us that Dozier must not be much of a leader, you know, because 103 losses. 

 

Dozier's value will likely be higher than it might otherwise be because of his almost unimpeachable character. I'm liking that Falvey isn't clamoring to hand out a huge contract to him on one hand, because, I certainly don't think he's irreplaceable. In fact, he may be adequately replaced by Nick Gordon, the guy you think has a ceiling in line with Ahire Adrianza but with worse defensive chops. If he has a good start, he could fetch value from a team looking for a rental. If not, getting a 2nd round draft pick would be disappointing but not disastrous I guess.

 

Like the rest of us, you don't know what his trade value was in the past, is now and will be in the future. Let's stop acting like last year's Dodgers talks, about which you have no proprietary information, did anything to set the market for him. His value won't be low for the reasons you've suggested, but rather, because his contract status eliminates any seller's leverage.

Edited March 1, 2018 by birdwatcher

This really shouldn't come as a surprise. If it is this close to free agency then players rarely give a hometown discount for extensions.

And perhaps I am mistaken but wasn't there a short article (or perhaps a comment) from Dozier last year that he was surprised that the Twins hadn't approached him about an extension last offseason? He didn't sound upset but just thought that he would have been approached about it. That was the opportunity to extend him.

And I already said it but a player's trade value isn't always reflective of his actual value. Contending teams simply didn't need 2B last offseason. I made the argument all offseason that Dozier was going to be hard to trade because of that fact. And he was hard to trade because of that.

These two statements don't really jibe with one another.

 

If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply.

 

But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian).

 

And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season.

 

He's not going to be cheap.

I understand the comment about Doziers market value being depressed, but remember his market value is subjective. Regardless of the top dollar amount of an offer for Doziers services, a home town discount would still be a discount from his top dollar offer. The amounts are irrelevant to the perceived value. I think the new philosophy on paying over 30 yr. old players for their history, the plethora of quality second baseman, and the number of FA available next year will negatively impact Doziers top offers. But that does not make him a steal since the market value is set by next years offers, not by what he would have brought in say, 2015, in the same set of circumstances.

 

Seems kind of disingenuous, after Dozier and his agent publicly prioritized free agency when he signed his first extension with us. If Dozier hasn't given any indications he would sign another extension below his FA market value, why would he expect the Twins to approach him about doing so?

There really isn't much comparison to not agreeing to tack on a FA year (a huge benefit to a team) to an extension signed during arbitration and approaching a top player about a mega extension before he hits FA. Especially for a player that is already hitting FA for the first time in his 30's. He knows that this contract is his one big payday.

 

They didn't even give him a chance to say no. The Twins FO have basically said that he won't be part of the plans after 2018.

 

 

Love having Dozier for 2018.

Pretty certain I'd like having him for 2019, and probably for 2020.

 

Take a look at the top Baseball Ref comps for Dozier though, and what they have done after their early 30's.  It isn't pretty.

 

Dan Uggla 
Kelly Johnson 
Damion Easley 
Rickie Weeks 
Neil Walker 
Bret Boone 
Jose Valentin 

 

With the exception of Jeff Kent, power hitting second basemen don't age well at all.  Father Time is tough to beat.  If Dozier is willing to take a 3 year deal (and he probably won't be) then sure, sign him.  I think after 2021 you can't expect him to be better than replacement level on his offense, and his defense is unlikely to be adequate.

I realize Dozier and Altuve are not the same player, Altuve is also younger and better. But Altuve getting 5yr/$151mil seems like it could affect what Dozier might get in free agency. Not that he will get close to that, but maybe more than the numbers I have seen thrown around so far. Anyone else have an idea if Altuve's contract will have any impact on how much Dozier gets?

 

Next offseason the Angels will let Kinsler walk and have an opening at 2B. They will be able to compete for him in free agency and the Angels have a history of getting Twins in FA. Carew, Blylevin, Revere, Hunter, mudcat Grant, and more....

And let's not forget Lyman Bostock, whose promising career was tragically cut short.

Well, this whole discussion is going to get tiresome, especially if it goes on all year. I don't fault Dozier for wanting to explore free agency. At his age, it's now or never for him. And as a few people have pointed out, the idea of him being "faithful" to the Twins and wanting to stay with the team is naive. But on the other side of the coin, I won't fault the Twins front office for thinking that they will be taking too big a risk by signing him to a multi-year extension or new contract. It may be best for both parties to move on. I really can't get worked up about it either way.