Blurred Lines: Can Mauer Return To Form?

I am sure Mauer would have been ripped for sitting out. Well, he gets attacked no matter what he does. Wanting to play should not be one of the reasons however.

I'd have to question whether the decline is actually concussion related or just a player getting older and just not being the same hitter.  Here's his strike out percentage:

2008           7.9%

2009          10.4%

2010            9.1%

2011          11.4%

2012          13.7%

2013           17.5%

2014          18.5%

2015          16.8%

His increase in strike outs appear to be the real reason for the decline. In 2012 & 2013, he got help from a higher than normal BABIP (2012: .364, 2013: .383 compared to career average of .344).  If his BABIP was closer to his career average, he would have batted below .300 in 2013.  Also if his strike out rate was around his pre-2011 average of 10%, he would have batted .315 in 2014 & .293 in 2015.

Since his numbers went down in 2015, we would have to assume his concussion problems are not getting worse not better or it's just following the pattern of a player's production continuing to decrease as he get's older.

And in 2015 Mauer's BABiP was basically a career low, 35 points below his career average. When that happens, it usually means one of two things: injury or bad luck. In this case, we may have both. 

Mauer is still young enough to bounce back and have another stretch of strong seasons and if he puts together a few more seasons like 2012 & 2013 we should be pretty happy Twins fans.

And in 2015 Mauer's BABiP was basically a career low, 35 points below his career average. When that happens, it usually means one of two things: injury or bad luck. In this case, we may have both. 

 

Mauer is still young enough to bounce back and have another stretch of strong seasons and if he puts together a few more seasons like 2012 & 2013 we should be pretty happy Twins fans.

Or it could show aging, better defensive placement etc. He was at his career average BABIP in 2014 and hit .277.  Without power, it would be had to hit over .300 and strike out % 16-18%, unless his luck is a lot better than his career average like in 2012 & 2013. 

With his swing, it's hard to understand why he has been striking out so much.  Since it began prior to the concussion, it probably not due to an injury.  Maybe a change in his approach at the plate would make a difference.

I don't think the concussion in 2013 explains why his OBP dropped from .361 in 2014 to .338 in 2015.

I don't think the concussion in 2013 explains why his OBP dropped from .361 in 2014 to .338 in 2015.

Why? I mean, it's possible it didn't, but it's possible it did. None of us know, I suppose. I'm just curious for your reasons in thinking there was no affect whatsoever lingering from his concussion.

At least the rubes will have something to whine about.

It's possible. Baseball players don't typically start wearing down from age as soon as they turn 30 though, especially those with the natural ability and athleticism of Mauer. 

But I don't see a rapid decline as far as his strike outs.  He been trending down for awhile.  If it wasn't for the high BABIP (especially in 2013), the trending down would be more obvious. 

The one stat that had a big change was his swing strike percentage in 2013 (prior to the concussion).  He was right around 4% every year, then a 50% drop to 6% in 2013.  And it's remained at the level for the last 2 years. 

Why? I mean, it's possible it didn't, but it's possible it did. None of us know, I suppose. I'm just curious for your reasons in thinking there was no affect whatsoever lingering from his concussion.

Because, assuming that the concussion was the driving force behind the drop-off, one would expect that the stats would either improve or at least stay more or less the same the further away from the concussion he got.

Somehow he put up a significantly better OBP in 2014 than he did in 2015. That would seem to indicate that some other factor is in play.

I'd have to question whether the decline is actually concussion related or just a player getting older and just not being the same hitter.  Here's his strike out percentage:

 

2008           7.9%

2009          10.4%

2010            9.1%

2011          11.4%

2012          13.7%

2013           17.5%

2014          18.5%

2015          16.8%

 

His increase in strike outs appear to be the real reason for the decline. In 2012 & 2013, he got help from a higher than normal BABIP (2012: .364, 2013: .383 compared to career average of .344).  If his BABIP was closer to his career average, he would have batted below .300 in 2013.  Also if his strike out rate was around his pre-2011 average of 10%, he would have batted .315 in 2014 & .293 in 2015.

 

Since his numbers went down in 2015, we would have to assume his concussion problems are not getting worse not better or it's just following the pattern of a player's production continuing to decrease as he get's older.

Now imagine trying not just to regain your high average, but to start picking pitches to pull and drive over the fence in right field. I remember discussions about the difficulty of Mauer announcing his intention to start pulling the ball more to increase his power numbers, and the inevitable reaction of MLB pitchers, which was of course to start working him low outside and low/high inside, but almost never anything he could pull. When you combine Mauer's concussion symptoms with an attempted mechanical modification, it's not too hard to see how Mauer's batting average would bottom out. 

So far we have every indication that Mauer is going to play this season, so then the question is, will Mauer continue trying to change into a pull power hitter, or will he go back to his career bread and butter approach of being an opposite field wizard? The latter approach seems more likely, at least early on. It won't take long to see if Mauer is still whiffing on pitches he used to flick into left field. 

Now imagine trying not just to regain your high average, but to start picking pitches to pull and drive over the fence in right field. I remember discussions about the difficulty of Mauer announcing his intention to start pulling the ball more to increase his power numbers, and the inevitable reaction of MLB pitchers, which was of course to start working him low outside and low/high inside, but almost never anything he could pull. When you combine Mauer's concussion symptoms with an attempted mechanical modification, it's not too hard to see how Mauer's batting average would bottom out. 

 

So far we have every indication that Mauer is going to play this season, so then the question is, will Mauer continue trying to change into a pull power hitter, or will he go back to his career bread and butter approach of being an opposite field wizard? The latter approach seems more likely, at least early on. It won't take long to see if Mauer is still whiffing on pitches he used to flick into left field. 

He only had 4 HR's in 2014 and 10 in 2015.  If his average is dropping because he trying to hit for more power, I think we can call it a complete failure.

Just do everyone a favor if this is true and retire. If he clearly hid this from the team man up and just retire right now and let the Twins out of this nightmare of a contract.

I think one thing that people often forget in regards to how old Joe has looked is how the concussion has affected his offseason preparation. Take this quote from the article for instance, “Some of the exercises we tried to do last year, I’d come up and be like, ‘Whoa.’ Now it’s gradually getting better,” he said. From what I gather, it sounds like off season prep was hindered no matter how good he said it was going at the time. It's not like the concussion only affected when he was at the plate. Prep also took a hit, which I believe explains some of the "aging" that we saw.

To be fair, every athlete ever says that every single preseason. What else are they really supposed to say? I'm not really in the best shape because I got dizzy doing sit ups? I feel like a player is going to get ripped either way.

Mauer basically did that with the bilateral leg weakness fiasco. He stated he wasn't healthy enough to play, because he wasn't, and still gets ripped for being "soft". Should he have said "I'm in the best shape of my life." play through it, risk chronic injury, and put up numbers that replacement players could replicate?

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20211-mauer-lack-of-training-and-overflow-of-excuses-catching-up-to-him/

So when Mauer says he's doesn't have any symptoms, isn't training by choice, or is in the best condition of his career - we shouldn't believe him.

When is says he has blurred vision and some training problems, we should believe him and conclude that is the reason behind his drop in production?

The photo of him working out with his strength and conditioning coach doesn't get me optimistic.

http://i1.wp.com/www.twincities.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Mauer-workout-001A.jpg?fit=800%2C450px

The photo of him working out with his strength and conditioning coach doesn't get me optimistic.

 

http://i1.wp.com/www.twincities.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Mauer-workout-001A.jpg?fit=800%2C450px

Is it the squatting 8 pounds? Or is it the fact that he uses gloves to squat 8 pounds? Or is it that they don't match his purse?

(Okay, that's my Mauer bashing quota for awhile. Apologies to Joe. I'm gonna assume he's doing four hundred reps.)