Awkward Decisions

Can Cruz really expect a long term deal? I have to admit, I am intrigued by him...

His agent has been saying he wants at least two years.

He's an intriguing guy with an almost unparalleled career track - his best run of seasons has been ages 34-37. He'd certainly be a nice bat in the lineup.

Issues to me are that he's an everyday DH so there goes spelling Sano/Rosario or working in at bats for four OFers. He also has had steroid issues which leave him open to a big suspension and perhaps cloud his late career numbers. He also seems like he'll get at least $10 million per year so the cost is higher.

I wouldn't be averse but there's a lot to unpack with him.

Unless the front office is convinced that both Mauer and Molitor (or another manager, please) would put Joe on the Bench if better options emerge, you can't bring Mauer back if you're planning on competing next year.

 

It's well within reason that Sano, or Austin, or Rooker or someone else will be both a better overall player AND need to play 1B next year. If the front office knows going into this offseason that Mauer's stature is going to prevent them from replacing him, they just can't re-sign him; it would be completely irresponsible.

 

If all parties will agree to the distinct possibility of a greatly diminished role, great, re-sign him. But let La Velle know too so the news is broken to the fans long before that decision has to be made.

I don't see the diminished role.

Brent Rooker isn't going to be ready until June 1 at the earliest. He's dipped a bit in AA this year. Nothing awful, he just needs a bit more seasoning as expected. 

Sano is 3B next year with a sprinkling of 1B and DH. I don't get the people eager to get him across the diamond. He'll end up there eventually but he's an adequate 3B and the Twins have no internal candidates at 3B. They're already replacing 2B so why have to replace 3B too when you have an acceptable guy there already?

Austin will get some time at 1B/DH. But I see him also getting some time as the 5th OF (behind Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Cave) and he's an ideal platoon with Mauer anyway.

Mauer isn't going to play 140 games but there's no reason he can't play a more front-loaded 125. There's not a lot better in free agency and Mauer means something to the team. Bring him back.

Maybe not a full-time, everyday DH, but I think this is an exaggeration. I suspect most teams have a Mauer/Morrison type plan at DH, unless perhaps you are stacked with great position players (which the Twins most certainly are not).

Yeah, this is interesting with Cruz. He's a 150 game+ DH and an amazing bat but he does preclude you from the rest day but still get to hit plan.

It'd be interesting to hear MLB player and staff talk about how that affects a team. Does it make you play guys in the field more and not get those days off? Does it contribute to continuity to have that same bat every day? Interesting topic with so few true DH's left.

This is all speculation though, what if paragraphs 1,2 and 4 aren't true? You're stuck with a subpar 1B you can't move out of the lineup.

 

What if Rooker is ready June 1? You think Joe is just going to go to the bench? I don't, I think Joe keeps his job and Rooker is more likely to bide his time in Rochester whether he's crushing or not all while TD burns down in frustration.

 

What if Sano can't play 3B, maybe because of futility, maybe just because of physical limitations? Then what, clog up the DH all year?

 

Mauer's played in 75% of the team's games this year. Why would we believe that he'd platoon with Austin or have reduced playing time?

Brett Rooker has a .812 OPS at AA for the year. That ain't bad but it doesn't scream "promote me directly to the majors". He's going to start next year in AAA and he will have to adjust again. I think June 1st is a good target date. When he is ready, there's room for him in the majors. He can play corner OF, 1B, and DH. No reason Joe blocks him. And let's flip it. You don't resign Joe and Rooker isn't ready until September 1st. Are you happy having Kennys Vargas at 1B? Adrianza playing every day at 3B while Sano plays 1B? The Twins need a 1B/DH type to being the year and Joe makes as much sense as anyone.

Number 2 is not speculation. Sano has shown nothing to say he's not going to be at 3B next year. If anything it's his bat sending him to the minors that is the problem (BTW, that would make Joe even more necessary).

Assuming Joe plays 20 more games this year he's going to end up with around 120 games. His three year average will be 130ish (and that includes games he pinch hits so it's really like 120). I think 120 is a fair guess for Joe. Gets you 42 games for Rooker. Couple that with the inevitable injuries and rest days and you have more than enough time for Rooker or whomever.

This thing isn't about internal candidates. It's about if you think there's a better outside option. If the Twins sign Donaldson and Cruz, yeah, Joe doesn't fit. But I don't know that that would be a wise use of funds and really doubt the Twins are going to commit to several long-term deals to guys north of 35. One short term deal to Joe makes way more sense.

I don't know if Cruz would completely preclude it. Aside from Mauer, the Twins have only had a handful of guys use the DH spot in that fashion, mostly since we punted on the season anyway. A benefit of a mostly young lineup. Cruz will need an occasional day off anyway.

2014 to 2017 Cruz averaged 155 games. This year he missed two weeks with a sprained ankle but will still hit 140+ games. He's pretty much an everyday DH.

You're right that the Twins won't need it as much next year. Dozier was the guy who used that DH day the most and he's gone. But Rosario has done so on several occasions and it's probably not a bad idea for Sano and some other guys. 

It's not about the upgrade, it's about the team not being able to fix a problem if Mauer is on the team. You can't fix 1B if he's re-signed because they'll have to play him there no matter what his production is. 

 

And free agents shouldn't have anything to do with it because there's still the strong possibility that internal options like Sano, Austin or Rooker will need the spot. But if they want a free agent, yes, sign Matt Adams over Mauer, he's a better hitter, can play OF and can be dealt or benched without anyone wringing their hands about it.

How do you want to fix it?

Sano is a third baseman. What good does it do to "fix" 1B and then need to fill 3B? Especially when you make Sano significantly less valuable in the process.

Rooker has an .812 OPS in AA. He'll be fine but he is going to need at least a half season in AAA. This isn't Kent Hrbek or Joe Mauer blasting out of AA.

If you make Austin your 1B everyday, then you need a DH and have to go outside to get it. That means getting a 1B/DH type. That market is limited and Mauer is one of those guys you're looking at anyway.

Matt Adams is a reasonable option. So are Cruz and Smoak IMO. But you need to weigh the cost of those guys (no guarantee they want to sign in Minnesota or aren't more likely to stay where they've been) against the benefit of Joe. It comes down to the contract they all want to sign and the intangibles of keeping one of the best players in franchise history. I'd need to see a big upside to moving from Joe to Matt Adams and that would depend on the varying contract demands.

It's not a cut and dried thing, there are lots of variables.

Maybe you're right, but on the Sano thing, finding infielders should not be an issue in this year's free agent crop. Sign Escobar to play 3B, sign Jed Lowrie to play 2B. Plenty of other options beyond those two, if they don't move the needle for you. 

 

On 1B/DH options, those names you listed are far from the only options available. There's always trades.

 

Anyway, my sincere hope is that Joe Mauer comes back, stays healthy and keeps up his solid play, but I'm worried that wouldn't happen. But if he does return, you've gotta make sure then to mold the roster around him correctly.

There are trades, though trades cost prospects and have their own cost. Certainly should explore every avenue and I'm sure the Twins have and will.

I'm hesitant to sign two middle infielders that will require longer deals. Escobar will get three to four years and Lowrie likely gets at least two and maybe three depending on the market. With Araez, Lewis, and Gordon all relatively near the majors, you're setting up a backlog in the middle infield that I don't relish. I get you can always trade guys but that's never a given if the MLB guy is producing. I'd much prefer the Twins kick the can down the road a year with Mauer (or Adams or Smoak) at 1B, preserve Sano's value at 3B, and fill 2B with Escobar or someone like him. I think getting the extra year to see guys develop is worth it.

No, no it is absolutely not about that. If you sign Joe, you're stuck with him at 1B, good or bad. If you sign, promote or move literally any other player to 1B, you are not stuck with that option because sentimentality and seniority won't be a factor.

Okay Nick. Set your dream Twins position players using only internal options (and Escobar at 2B because that's fun and we all know the Twins are going to need to fill that hole in FA). How are you doing it? Assume 13 pitchers?

He won’t start that many games this year. He only started 131 in 2017, easily his most productive season offensively in years. 126 starts in 2016, 154 in 2015, 118 in 2014, his first year as a non catcher. IMO 125 starts in 2019 is extremely unlikely. Even if he doesn’t land on the DL, which is pretty likely to happen given his age and injury history. 110 is a more realistic number I think. And therein lies the problem. You have a wasted roster spot for 50 games, almost 1/3 of the season. Some said he can pinch hit. Sure. The Twins have used a pinch hitter in less than half their games this year. And how many of those were “throw away” at bats in blow outs? The kind Mauer wouldn’t get anyway. Point being, the days of having a dangerous pinch hitter lurking are gone in the AL.

I think you're undervaluing the benefit of having a good pinch hitter but that's likely something we just disagree on.

If he's injured, it's not a wasted roster spot, they can bring someone else up. And I don't see it as a wasted spot either. It's an opportunity for guys like Garver to get in the lineup more. Or a way to get a young guy coming up (Gordon, Rooker) into 2 of the 4-5 times a week you want them to play. A chance to get a backup on a hot streak (Cave) an extra game. It's not a wasted roster spot. You can't have everyone play 160 games. Mauer playing 110 just means 50 extra games to spread around to other guys.