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    Austin Martin Could Be the September Spark the Twins Need


    Nick Nelson

    After a tumultuous run, the centerpiece of the José Berríos trade is re-emerging as a potential difference-maker for the Twins down the stretch. 

    One thing is for sure: Minnesota could sorely use the skills Austin Martin offers when at his best.

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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    It is clear to me that certain people – including possibly the Twins manager – have become overly enamored with Willi Castro. He's gone from folk hero to focal point of the offense, drawing a start in the leadoff spot in Friday night's series opener against the Phillies. 

    Look, I'm not here to knock Castro. He's a valuable piece in the right capacity. But a guy with a career .299 OBP and 89 OPS+ is not exactly the prototype for an effective leadoff hitter. (He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.)

    Then again, I get why Rocco Baldelli and much of the fan base would be drawn to Castro. He's an exciting athlete and he brings qualities to the field that are otherwise lacking on this roster. The 26-year-old hits from both sides, can field capably at a variety of positions, and he's a weapon on the basepaths with 29 steals on 33 attempts.

    The problem is that all these qualities are packaged up in a player who is, overall, not very good. Castro deserves credit for playing to the maximum of his ability, but even at that he's not a starting-caliber player – or he wouldn't be, outside of the circumstances that have put him on a 450-PA pace for the Twins this year.

    Castro was cut loose during the offseason by the lowly Tigers, and he's not a wholly different player for Minnesota than he was for Detroit.

    Imagine if the Twins could access a player who brings many of the desirable qualities boasted by Castro, but with greater talent and far more viable upside? As luck would have it, that player might be just a phone call away at Triple-A.

    Austin Martin was the No. 5 pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and No. 1 prospect in the Twins system heading into last year, based on traits similar to those that endeared fans to Castro: he's scrappy, he's aggressive, he's versatile. 

    "He's electric," I wrote of Martin and his rep at the time. "He's confident. He's a gamer and a playmaker. You want to see him in big spots."

    Seventeen months later, the 24-year-old has since traveled a rough and bumpy road – including a brutal 2022 campaign that he attributes to betraying the strengths that made him effective, and an injury-ruined first half here in 2023. But those traits are still within him, and finally it looks like Martin is feeling good again.

    He missed several months after spraining his elbow in spring training, and then had his rehab disrupted by another injury, but Martin finally made it to Triple-A last month. He was slow to get going, batting just .154 in his first 10 games, but since then he has looked very much like the electric on-base machine that made his name as a prospect. 

    In his past 16 games, Martin is slashing .347/.460/.469 with 11 walks and 10 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances. Here in August he's got eight hits, eight walks and five steals through seven games. 

     

    Like Castro, Martin can play a variety of positions including second and all three outfield spots. (Third and short could be in play, though his elbow issues may discourage the Twins from using him there this year.) Like Castro, Martin is a prolific and effective base-stealer, 11-for-13 this year and 35-for-41 last year. 

    The big difference lies in their specific offensive profiles, which are polar opposite. Whereas Castro is a free-swinger who whiffs a lot and occasionally gets a hold of one, Martin is a highly-patient contact machine. He led all of Double-A in OBP in 2021, his first pro season, and currently has a .374 OBP at St. Paul. Now THAT is the kind of profile you want in the leadoff spot.

    Obviously, it is too soon to officially pronounce Martin fully "back" to his best form after a few good weeks. Even at his best, when the Twins acquired him as headliner in the José Berríos trade, Martin had limitations in his game that kept his projections in check – namely, a lack of power or a clear defensive home.

    Those question marks remain, even as he gets back to excelling on his strengths. Martin has only seven extra-base hits (one homer) in 108 Triple-A plate appearances, and hasn't settled into any specific defensive position there, although he's played a good amount in left and that's somewhere the Twins could use a righty bat ... other than Willi Castro.

    Obviously, eyes are on Royce Lewis as a short-term reinforcement from St. Paul, and rightfully so. But don't sleep on the impact Martin – who's actually a couple months older than Lewis – could yet make in this campaign if his game continues to lock in. 

     

    He still needs to be added to the 40-man roster, but even so, Martin seems like a good candidate to be called up in September when rosters expand. It'll be interesting to see if they try to get him up before then to make him available for the playoffs.

    With his skill set and makeup, Martin is the kind of player you want on the postseason roster. When on his game, you want to see him in big spots.

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    1 hour ago, gman said:

    I think Martin can be the Twins starting center fielder next year. Seem like the Twins finally realized not everyone should or can hit 30 homers. The best teams in baseball figured that out and the Twins are just late for to the party.

    Martin will be a high on base player with 30-40 stolen base ability. He can cover center field and was obviously never a short stop.  It'll be fun to see him hit leadoff and Julian bat second.  with Lewis, Kirilloff, Lee, Wallner, and Jeffers in the lineup. With Correa further down unless he starts hitting again. No telling about Buxton or Larnach.

    In fantasy baseball.

    I don't think adding a spark from a minor leaguer is gonna push this team into anything it is not now.  The team needs to play better baseball.  Is the team looking for a Miracle from St. Paul? I doubt it.  Who do we have over there who will lead us to a successful post season? 

    Cut Gallo. Lol.

    36 minutes ago, joefish said:

    I don't think adding a spark from a minor leaguer is gonna push this team into anything it is not now.  The team needs to play better baseball.  Is the team looking for a Miracle from St. Paul? I doubt it.  Who do we have over there who will lead us to a successful post season? 

    Cut Gallo. Lol.

    Seems like an odd take given the impact that guys like Julien and Wallner have had on this offense. The way to play better baseball is to use better baseball players, and not to have someone like Willi Castro batting leadoff or Jordan Luplow batting second. 

    3 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

    You think that Martin could play shortstop next year for the Twins, or could play shortstop even this year for the Twins if his elbow issues are cleared up? 

    I don't think he'll ever be a regular starting SS in the majors but it could definitely be a tool in his utility kit. 

    6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Did Wallner, Julien, Lewis or Kirilloff compile a .739 career MiLB OPS? With no real demonstrated defensive value?

    The OP is about this year. I'd put the odds of Martin outperforming Castro in MLB this year at...pretty low. Which isn't a defense of Castro, BTW.

    Some people's default is always the backup quarterback, too.

    It's a well known story that they tried to tinker with Martin's approach to hitting in an effort to get more power. And screwed him up. I guess that means he is willing to listen to coaching (maybe not anymore). Anyway, a guy who can run like Castro, but gets on base at a much higher rate (Castro milb .320, Martin milb .397) would look good in front of Julien, Lewis, Kiriloff, etc. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate Castro as a utility player, just not as an everyday starter.

    16 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Two things can be true:

    Castro is wildly overrated and is getting way too much playing time.

    and

    Martin is most likely worse. 

    If Chief means "who is most likely worse right now in August 2023", I think he's probably right. Love me some Willi C but Castro's current slash of .241/.322/.371 (.693), 91 OPS+, is right in line with his career slash of .244/299/.379(.678), 88 OPS+. The only real difference is a few more walks and a lot more steals because Rocco has let him loose on the basepaths. Yes, that's right, Rocco has developed a base stealer. Who knew that could happen? Anyway, Castro is a nice player as a backup UTL guy, hopefully playing 3-4 times a week. Tops. Not an every day starter. I think Martin could be a lot more than that. 

    You know what I think could be fun? Let's be honest guys, I don't think I'm the only one who gets bored of this 2023 team. Jordan Luplow, Joey Gallo and Dallas Keuchel? Why? Not really helping much now, not back in 2024 if there is a God.  Let's use this year to really jump start 2024 even more than they already are. DFA Gallo, Keuchel, and Luplow. Call up Lewis, Martin, and Varland (first to take Keuchel's spot or give Ober a turn off if we go 4 man rotation with the off days coming up, then to the late inning bullpen when Ryan comes back). Option Winder or Sands to AAA when Ryan is ready to come back.

    Trot out this everyday lineup, and I mean every day hitting the young LH hitters against LH pitching:

    Julien 2B/1B

    Lewis 3B

    Correa SS

    Kepler RF

    Polanco 1B/2B (replaced by Kiriloff when he's ready, Polo becomes the INF UTL/part time DH, plays 4-5 days a week) 

    Jeffers C (Vásquez hits 8 when he plays and Wallner and Castro/Taylor move up one)

    Wallner DH/LF

    Castro/Taylor CF (Castro starting a little more and Taylor defensive replacement as well as sometime starter)

    Martin LF

    Or hit Martin leadoff and move everyone back one. 

    Varland starts until Ryan is back, then move Varland to a 7th/8th inning role out of the BP. Back end of the bullpen is Duran, Jax, Varland, and Pagan. Thielbar is the high leverage fireman. Balazovic and Floro handle the 5th and 6th, Sands, Winder, and Headrick are on the AAA shuttle filling the long man spot. Farmer and Solano play only against LH pitching.  When Kirilloff is ready, either end the Martin experiment, send Castro down, or DFA Solano (need Farmer's glove and Solano is 35 and gone next year). Buxton replaces either Castro or Martin with the winner playing LF. Even better in a weird way, if Kirilloff and/or Buxton comes back 9/1 or later no one goes down. Then you have a very flexible group of 15 fielders from which to pick your 13 man playoff roster. 

    What do you think? Looks to me like a much more fun team to watch and cheer for. Also helps you figure out 2024. Can Martin play at this level? Can Castro play CF well enough to be the guy if Taylor isn't back in 2024? Can Lewis and Kirilloff stay healthy for a 6 week run in September and hopefully October? Will the extra speed help us score more runs, particularly against LH pitching? Can Varland hold down a rotation spot and/or is he a real force out of the bullpen? If this works we've found 4 young starters for 2024 - Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Martin -  found out if we need a Taylor type as Buxton CF insurance for next year or if Castro can handle that job, found out if Varland can be a high end reliever as well as a starter if Paddack shines when he comes back, eased Polo into the role he's likely to have in 2024 if he's retained, potentially identified replacements for Kepler if he isn't retained, and freed up some payroll for a FA starting pitcher. Let's find all this out and have some fun along the way. 

     

     

     

     

    September?  Only if it's a product of injuries.  He is not taking MAT's spot or 2B from Julien or LF from Wallner.  I am also not so sure he is ready right at the moment but I still believe he could contribute significantly at some point.   I sure hope so because we could use more dynamic athletes that can get on base and then run the bases.  He will be fun to watch.

    36 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    September?  Only if it's a product of injuries.  He is not taking MAT's spot or 2B from Julien or LF from Wallner.  I am also not so sure he is ready right at the moment but I still believe he could contribute significantly at some point.   I sure hope so because we could use more dynamic athletes that can get on base and then run the bases.  He will be fun to watch.

    Is he Major League Pitching Ready like Hicks, Larnach, Sano?

    3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    September?  Only if it's a product of injuries.  He is not taking MAT's spot or 2B from Julien or LF from Wallner.  I am also not so sure he is ready right at the moment but I still believe he could contribute significantly at some point.   I sure hope so because we could use more dynamic athletes that can get on base and then run the bases.  He will be fun to watch.

    Agreed

    23 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Great. 

    Those kinds of accolades definitely matter more than performance. 

    I guess we'll see. I'd be surprised if he's a September callup, much less proves useful.

    There’s a reason he was a stud at vandy. There’s a reason he was looked at as a 1-1 pick in the draft. There’s a reason Toronto started him at AA right away. There’s a reason the Twins wanted him in that trade. The Twins screwed around with him trying to get more power out of him and playing him at SS. As a result there’s a reason why he struggled for the last 2 years. I think he dropped in the draft because of his power profile as well as not having the ability to play SS. I don’t believe the Toronto scouting staff is inept. They started him in AA for a reason. They identified right away what he was and what he wasn’t. The Twins then got him hoping he was more than he was. If you look at his minor league stats he’s the perfect guy to plug into this offense. .256/.388/.350/.738. BB/K at 129/159. And those are his numbers trying to hit for power for who knows how long. Even if you drop those numbers a bit with a big league transition he’s still better than 1/2 of this team. 

    22 hours ago, joefish said:

    I don't think adding a spark from a minor leaguer is gonna push this team into anything it is not now.  The team needs to play better baseball.  Is the team looking for a Miracle from St. Paul? I doubt it.  Who do we have over there who will lead us to a successful post season? 

    Cut Gallo. Lol.

    Nobody thinks there’s a savior in St. Paul. Lewis is the closest to that and he’s rehabbing. I think what everyone is saying here is that had the Twins just let him be what he is he’s probably our starting CF right now. MAT wouldn’t have been signed and we’d be realizing that this guy and Julien at the top of our lineup create a lot of opportunities to score runs! He’s not gonna hit 20 bombs but he’s not gonna kill innings and he’s gonna be on base. ALOT! Probably not a superstar but a very solid RH bat. Which is what we should’ve got at the deadline. He’s not as good of a hitter as Arraez but he walks more and plays better D. I don’t remember anyone clamoring for Arraez either back in the day. Why? Cause he wasn’t seen as a superstar with elite power. He’s now the best hitter in the game. Just saying. Good players can come out of nowhere when they bring certain elite skill sets not centered on flashy stats.




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