3 Potential Twins Trades for the Padres' Dylan Cease

The Padres are trying to get past the Dodgers. That being said I'm expect MLB ready or already in MLB would be their primary want. With a little down the road talent. I'd guess it would take Larnach, Vasqueaz and Matthews to make that happen. Plus, from what i have read they are not looking to add much if any payroll. This trade is close to 0 payroll both ways. That feels a bit steep for 1 year of Cease even if you QO him in the offseason. I'd be thrilled to add Cease to the Twins starters, Too make that happen seems like a step backwards in 2025 and beyond.

28 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

The Padres are trying to get past the Dodgers. That being said I'm expect MLB ready or already in MLB would be their primary want. With a little down the road talent. I'd guess it would take Larnach, Vasqueaz and Matthews to make that happen. Plus, from what i have read they are not looking to add much if any payroll. This trade is close to 0 payroll both ways. That feels a bit steep for 1 year of Cease even if you QO him in the offseason. I'd be thrilled to add Cease to the Twins starters, Too make that happen seems like a step backwards in 2025 and beyond.

As I have stated elsewhere, I'm happy with the Twins starting pitching. However, if Larnach, Vazquez, and Matthews sounds a bit steep and you are worried that this move could be a step backward, is there some substitutions possible? Castro and Julien in place of Larnach?

25 minutes ago, gagu said:

I agree with you on Arraez, Mark, but I only partially agree with the wise man. Grounding into a double play is worse than a strikeout. On that point, Arraez GIDP 18 times in each of the last two seasons, the 7th most times in the NL in '24, and 9th most in '23. (Note that Arraez totaled six GIDPs with MN in '22. A H&R issue?) While that is a negative, his overall ability to put the ball in play AND having his league's highest batting average in the last three seasons is a much bigger positive. His OBP last year was his worst, but it ranked 9th in MLB in '23.                                                            Arraez is due $14 million in his final season of arbitration, Cease at 13.75M.   Arraez's slash at home last season was .268/.308/.328, (2 for 11 vs Twins at Petco) compared to .359/.385/.456 on the road. I'd expect a rebound season if we could get him back at Target Field.

 

Yes he does hit into double plays periodically; it comes with putting the ball in play.  Out of well over 1200 PA's I believe I will live with that.  Overall, someone in MLB thinks he is worth something if his projected arbitration award would be in the neighborhood of 14 mil.  And, yes, it is entirely possible it could be line out DP's or H and R attempts as well.  

By the way, the wise man was me (at least I think I invented that).  🤭

At the end of the day, I would give up a decent amount of capital for a guy who can give you 180-200 hits a year with incredibly few strike outs and puts the ball in play for all sorts of possibilities over someone who produces more extra base hits out of the hits he gets.  I don't know, I guess I still value BA more than a lot of people do these days as well as putting the ball in play.  I remember Molitor, who finished his career here, hit DH the entire time he was here.  Give me Arraez in that role for a few years and let him hit.

(Sounds like we agree on more than we disagree; thanks for the discourse).  

9 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm sorry to break this to you guys but I think all this is a ruse. IMO Preller called up Tingler to make up this story to increase interest in Cease & Twins, Vazquez. Besides a small blimp on MLBTrade Rumors, I've heard nothing on the national social media not even SD websites. No announcements or comments from the Twins, nothing, only TD & possibly Twins X have been buzzing. News like this concerning Cease would light up all national social media & TV, I just haven't seen it. From the beginning, the trade didn't make sense.

No way to tell what has an element of truth. Hayes on The Athletic stated he had a source. His comment was in the comments.

In any event it makes sense. Preller sure would like a LF, DH/1B, C, SP for his team. Look around baseball and examine who can take on the Cease contract for only one year and possibly return all of those needs in a trade. Remember that the Padres are not looking for prospects except as possible additions to a deal. Yes, it is messy, a little complex, and unlikely (largely because the Twins don't like big deals too much), but it is not a ruse and it is within the realm of reality. 

The Twins really could use a young catcher and have some ability to provide surplus assets to send in a possible trade but there hasn't even been a story or hint of action towards that end. 

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

No way to tell what has an element of truth. Hayes on The Athletic stated he had a source. His comment was in the comments.

In any event it makes sense. Preller sure would like a LF, DH/1B, C, SP for his team. Look around baseball and examine who can take on the Cease contract for only one year and possibly return all of those needs in a trade. Remember that the Padres are not looking for prospects except as possible additions to a deal. Yes, it is messy, a little complex, and unlikely (largely because the Twins don't like big deals too much), but it is not a ruse and it is within the realm of reality. 

The Twins really could use a young catcher and have some ability to provide surplus assets to send in a possible trade but there hasn't even been a story or hint of action towards that end. 

I can see that SD would like a LF, DH/1B, C, & SP, that makes sense. Cease is a SP but they don't want to pay his salary. If they don't want to take on Cease's salary why do they want to pay Vazquez's $10M. OK MN will pay down his salary to $5M so that's a $5M savings. From Cease's $14M that's a $9M increase. For over a year we hear our budget is $130M, we are supposedly around $12M over & instead of cutting they are adding $9M? That doesn't make sense. We need catching, trading away catching doesn't make sense but Twins probably don't care. We aren't situated for a postseason run, a rental would be a waste. SD can get a much cheaper catcher than Vazquez in a trade for Cease somewhere else. But what got me thinking is, trading Cease is a big deal, national media should be all over this but they aren't. They aren't taking this trade rumor very seriously. I hope that there isn't any weight to the Pablo trade rumors but you still hear them on national media. Why isn't this?

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I can see that SD would like a LF, DH/1B, C, & SP, that makes sense. Cease is a SP but they don't want to pay his salary. If they don't want to take on Cease's salary why do they want to pay Vazquez's $10M. OK MN will pay down his salary to $5M so that's a $5M savings. From Cease's $14M that's a $9M increase. For over a year we hear our budget is $130M, we are supposedly around $12M over & instead of cutting they are adding $9M? That doesn't make sense. We need catching, trading away catching doesn't make sense but Twins probably don't care. We aren't situated for a postseason run, a rental would be a waste. SD can get a much cheaper catcher than Vazquez in a trade for Cease somewhere else. But what got me thinking is, trading Cease is a big deal, national media should be all over this but they aren't. They aren't taking this trade rumor very seriously. I hope that there isn't any weight to the Pablo trade rumors but you still hear them on national media. Why isn't this?

Fangraphs and mlbtraderumors among others have discussed this. It isn't an idea that has many hours of discussion yet among the GM's. The Twins fans are hoping for anything that creates interest or a smidgeon of improvement for the roster. The money rants center around statements that another cut was not likely to follow this offseason, which was deeply interpreted as no money at all which morphed into a firm $130M. 

The Padres need multiple players to compete and they are trying to make the playoffs. Their ownership chaos means no big money but they do not need to cut either. The problem for San Diego is that they cannot add much in salary. Preller was counting on getting Sasaki and resigning Profar. Bad luck for the Padres. Now they need to turn elsewhere and are looking. The Twins have some guys. It is best to see both sides of a situation.

Meanwhile the Twins are largely sitting it out right now, fine to a degree with the team they have rostered. It always makes sense to listen and Cease is good. The key is what goes if this deal goes through and even the initial rumor suggested the odds were quite low. The Twins have what the Padres could use. Falvey is in a good spot.

The catching situation is very important to me. In fact my first suggested trade back in October was to trade for Jeferson Quero and my second was to trade for Harry Ford. Later I pushed for ideas to bring in Endy Rodriguez. I didn't ever think Teel was affordable. In the mean time many veteran catchers have signed. Maille is about all that is left. So yes, the catching situation is difficult but Falvey will need to make that call. The Twins are competing for a playoff spot this year.

If Marco Raya is so good, let's give them Marco Raya.

The Twins would go out of business giving up a guy like Keaschall for one-year of Dylan Cease.  Crazy talk.  That goes for Zebby and Morris, too.

Give them Marco Raya, Kaelen Culpepper, Kyle DeBarge, Billy Amick.  Don't give them guys we know are going to be good for six years.  They're getting rid of salary.  They don't get the best Twins.  For one year.

If Marco Raya is so good, let's give them Marco Raya.

The Twins would go out of business giving up a guy like Keaschall for one-year of Dylan Cease.  Crazy talk.  That goes for Zebby and Morris, too.

Give them Marco Raya, Kaelen Culpepper, Kyle DeBarge, Billy Amick.  Don't give them guys we know are going to be good for six years.  They're getting rid of salary.  They don't get the best Twins.  For one year of Cease.

Deal 3 plugs one hole, but creates 2 new ones.

Deal 2 works for me.

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Fangraphs and mlbtraderumors among others have discussed this. It isn't an idea that has many hours of discussion yet among the GM's. The Twins fans are hoping for anything that creates interest or a smidgeon of improvement for the roster. The money rants center around statements that another cut was not likely to follow this offseason, which was deeply interpreted as no money at all which morphed into a firm $130M. 

The Padres need multiple players to compete and they are trying to make the playoffs. Their ownership chaos means no big money but they do not need to cut either. The problem for San Diego is that they cannot add much in salary. Preller was counting on getting Sasaki and resigning Profar. Bad luck for the Padres. Now they need to turn elsewhere and are looking. The Twins have some guys. It is best to see both sides of a situation.

Meanwhile the Twins are largely sitting it out right now, fine to a degree with the team they have rostered. It always makes sense to listen and Cease is good. The key is what goes if this deal goes through and even the initial rumor suggested the odds were quite low. The Twins have what the Padres could use. Falvey is in a good spot.

The catching situation is very important to me. In fact my first suggested trade back in October was to trade for Jeferson Quero and my second was to trade for Harry Ford. Later I pushed for ideas to bring in Endy Rodriguez. I didn't ever think Teel was affordable. In the mean time many veteran catchers have signed. Maille is about all that is left. So yes, the catching situation is difficult but Falvey will need to make that call. The Twins are competing for a playoff spot this year.

I was hoping that MN had a legit shot at Sasaki & I think we could've if there were more & earlier preparations. It was a long shot but we can dream. If MN wasn't going to land Sasaki, I figured & hoped that SD was going to land Sasaki, but unfortunately for them, they didn't. After Sasaki, they finally had a market for Cease but now they need Cease, I don't want to begrudge you the right to dream on Cease & I respect your opinion, T&R. I might be wrong, there may be some legitimacy to this.

I fault Falvey for making wrong evaluations & sticking with them for a long time (I could give you many examples but I won't bore you with them), When finally seeing the need, he tries to fix them with a bunch of fringe players. We needed a Cease last season to fill the Gray hole. Desclavani was our savior & trying to extend the rookies & Paddack's innings wasn't the answer. 

But this season the rookies have a year under their belts & Ober & Ryan have taken another step forward. IMO our pitching is in a good place. If we had all our bases covered & had WS aspirations & no budget limitations, Cease could put us over the top. We have to be very solid up the middle to compete. SS, check- CF check- 2B, check if we remove Julien from the equation- catcher, not by a long shot. Increasing Jeffers innings behind the plate dropped us down to #18th in catching. I've always thought Jeffers was only a backup catcher & each year he has proven me right, Every year when used as a backup he thrives, beyond that he falters, more innings beyond backup the more he falters. Still hoping that he'll become better doesn't make it so. We have to be realistic. For us to compete we need to add not subtract from catching. I appreciate you seeing the importance of catching & the addition of a future bonafide MLB catcher, like Jefferson Quero, Harry Ford or Endy Rodrigues. I could add to that list. We are only as strong as our weakest link. Catching is a very critical link, trading away Vazquez leaves us with backup Jeffers & a group of MLB wannabes will put us firmly in last place in MLB catching. When they finally wake up they'll sign an expensive inferior FA catcher that doesn't know our pitchers, wiping away any savings we gained by moving Vazquez. Gaining an inferior catcher to battle out of an impossible situation could raise us up in the bottom quarter. While not making a dent in the Pohlad's paramount budget-cutting from a significant deficit. We are adding $14M? (I don't see the Pohlads doing that). So IMO because of the devasted catching corp we don't have a chance to compete, thus making rental Cease a waste of money. To reiterate if we do nothing we still need & prioritize a bonafide future catcher. If we trade either Vazquez or Jeffers we need to prioritize 1 more to compensate. IMO FA catchers are a waste of money. If we can't develop catchers we need to trade for them.

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was hoping that MN had a legit shot at Sasaki & I think we could've if there were more & earlier preparations. It was a long shot but we can dream. If MN wasn't going to land Sasaki, I figured & hoped that SD was going to land Sasaki, but unfortunately for them, they didn't. After Sasaki, they finally had a market for Cease but now they need Cease, I don't want to begrudge you the right to dream on Cease & I respect your opinion, T&R. I might be wrong, there may be some legitimacy to this.

I fault Falvey for making wrong evaluations & sticking with them for a long time (I could give you many examples but I won't bore you with them), When finally seeing the need, he tries to fix them with a bunch of fringe players. We needed a Cease last season to fill the Gray hole. Desclavani was our savior & trying to extend the rookies & Paddack's innings wasn't the answer. 

But this season the rookies have a year under their belts & Ober & Ryan have taken another step forward. IMO our pitching is in a good place. If we had all our bases covered & had WS aspirations & no budget limitations, Cease could put us over the top. We have to be very solid up the middle to compete. SS, check- CF check- 2B, check if we remove Julien from the equation- catcher, not by a long shot. Increasing Jeffers innings behind the plate dropped us down to #18th in catching. I've always thought Jeffers was only a backup catcher & each year he has proven me right, Every year when used as a backup he thrives, beyond that he falters, more innings beyond backup the more he falters. Still hoping that he'll become better doesn't make it so. We have to be realistic. For us to compete we need to add not subtract from catching. I appreciate you seeing the importance of catching & the addition of a future bonafide MLB catcher, like Jefferson Quero, Harry Ford or Endy Rodrigues. I could add to that list. We are only as strong as our weakest link. Catching is a very critical link, trading away Vazquez leaves us with backup Jeffers & a group of MLB wannabes will put us firmly in last place in MLB catching. When they finally wake up they'll sign an expensive inferior FA catcher that doesn't know our pitchers, wiping away any savings we gained by moving Vazquez. Gaining an inferior catcher to battle out of an impossible situation could raise us up in the bottom quarter. While not making a dent in the Pohlad's paramount budget-cutting from a significant deficit. We are adding $14M? (I don't see the Pohlads doing that). So IMO because of the devasted catching corp we don't have a chance to compete, thus making rental Cease a waste of money. To reiterate if we do nothing we still need & prioritize a bonafide future catcher. If we trade either Vazquez or Jeffers we need to prioritize 1 more to compensate. IMO FA catchers are a waste of money. If we can't develop catchers we need to trade for them.

Cease is a long shot and I'm not dreaming on him at all. The right trade would add about two wins. Falvey has work to do but there are likely quite a few teams, other than the Twins, who are very leery of trading any of their propsects. This makes acquiring a catcher difficult. It is also why Falvey may stick with the status quo. Falvey is asking but the discussions are tough.

We never hear anything at all from any sources that suggest any of Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, or Seattle are open to trading their young catchers. Boston traded Teel for Crochet. There were other pieces but that is basically the deal. The Twins can't match that at all. The Dodgers are holding Rushing to play outfield and DH. Colorado is not dealing it appears. So .... rock and hard place for teams seeking catchers, which is part of the reason San Diego asks about Vazquez. I think this is where things stand today. Tomorrow? Who knows?

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I can see that SD would like a LF, DH/1B, C, & SP, that makes sense. Cease is a SP but they don't want to pay his salary. If they don't want to take on Cease's salary why do they want to pay Vazquez's $10M. OK MN will pay down his salary to $5M so that's a $5M savings. From Cease's $14M that's a $9M increase. For over a year we hear our budget is $130M, we are supposedly around $12M over & instead of cutting they are adding $9M? That doesn't make sense. We need catching, trading away catching doesn't make sense but Twins probably don't care. We aren't situated for a postseason run, a rental would be a waste. SD can get a much cheaper catcher than Vazquez in a trade for Cease somewhere else. But what got me thinking is, trading Cease is a big deal, national media should be all over this but they aren't. They aren't taking this trade rumor very seriously. I hope that there isn't any weight to the Pablo trade rumors but you still hear them on national media. Why isn't this?

The $130M is a product of assumptions that are not that reliable.  We are currently at $135.4M so we are not $12M over even with that unreliable assumption.  Additionally, if they traded for Cease, they could get rid of Paddack and cut another $7.5M.

39 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The $130M is a product of assumptions that are not that reliable.  We are currently at $135.4M so we are not $12M over even with that unreliable assumption.  Additionally, if they traded for Cease, they could get rid of Paddack and cut another $7.5M.

I sincerely hope you are right ML Ready. It seems budget cuts, budgets cuts has been shoved down our throats for too long we tend to believe it. $135.4 could be closer to reality but it's lower than what I've been hearing. I suggested trading Paddack but a TD member said SD isn't interested in him.

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I sincerely hope you are right ML Ready. It seems budget cuts, budgets cuts has been shoved down our throats for too long we tend to believe it. $135.4 could be closer to reality but it's lower than what I've been hearing. I suggested trading Paddack but a TD member said SD isn't interested in him.

They can trade Paddack to any of the other 28 teams if it's a matter of managing payroll. 

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Cease is a long shot and I'm not dreaming on him at all. The right trade would add about two wins. Falvey has work to do but there are likely quite a few teams, other than the Twins, who are very leery of trading any of their propsects. This makes acquiring a catcher difficult. It is also why Falvey may stick with the status quo. Falvey is asking but the discussions are tough.

We never hear anything at all from any sources that suggest any of Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, or Seattle are open to trading their young catchers. Boston traded Teel for Crochet. There were other pieces but that is basically the deal. The Twins can't match that at all. The Dodgers are holding Rushing to play outfield and DH. Colorado is not dealing it appears. So .... rock and hard place for teams seeking catchers, which is part of the reason San Diego asks about Vazquez. I think this is where things stand today. Tomorrow? Who knows?

1st you have to see your need, IMO Twins feel they don't have a need at catching, To where they think Diego Cartaya is the solution to any need at catching & that they can trade Vazquez away & be OK. If they don't see any need then they aren't looking for trades to add needed catchers & not taking seriously any possible trade offers from SEA, MIL, PIT or any other teams. So you don't hear of them. Most teams value good catching, so yeah it'd be difficult, From the BOS camp they said they'd never trade Teel. But with the right bait, a deal can be done. BOS are in win-now mode & their catching core is inexperienced they need desperately veteran catching w/o it they can't compete. If they value well-experienced catchers a trade could hve been had, If not a creative 3-way trade could have been done to where we could obtain Keel either way without hurting. There are a few young players that could be & should be traded to make a trade a reality

But I'm afraid all my advocating & well thought out numerous trade offers at BTV are futile. Because Falvey doesn't care, his head is somewhere else. He'll never be proactive or know what this team really needs. All I can say is the new owners will have their hands full undoing what Falvey has done to make this a winning team again & get fans excited to want to follow the Twins or keep fans from giving up.  

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

1st you have to see your need, IMO Twins feel they don't have a need at catching, To where they think Diego Cartaya is the solution to any need at catching & that they can trade Vazquez away & be OK. If they don't see any need then they aren't looking for trades to add needed catchers & not taking seriously any possible trade offers from SEA, MIL, PIT or any other teams. So you don't hear of them. Most teams value good catching, so yeah it'd be difficult, From the BOS camp they said they'd never trade Teel. But with the right bait, a deal can be done. BOS are in win-now mode & their catching core is inexperienced they need desperately veteran catching w/o it they can't compete. If they value well-experienced catchers a trade could hve been had, If not a creative 3-way trade could have been done to where we could obtain Keel either way without hurting. There are a few young players that could be & should be traded to make a trade a reality

But I'm afraid all my advocating & well thought out numerous trade offers at BTV are futile. Because Falvey doesn't care, his head is somewhere else. He'll never be proactive or know what this team really needs. All I can say is the new owners will have their hands full undoing what Falvey has done to make this a winning team again & get fans excited to want to follow the Twins or keep fans from giving up.  

There may have been a path but the Twins don't have a Crochet to give away, so Teel to Minnesota was not going to happen. The White Sox don't need Crochet because they are going to lose again for a few years. They do have some good pitching arriving soon, but Crochet was never going to pitch on the South Side. The Twins never had a shot at him. A drastic and controversial long shot to throw out one idea would be an exchange of Pablo Lopez for Samuel Basallo. I'm not sure either side agrees to that deal and I totally understand. I think it is better to just be patient as we have no say in the matter in any event.

If the idea is that we re-sign Cease after this season, I would do any of the 3 deals above.  

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

As I have stated elsewhere, I'm happy with the Twins starting pitching. However, if Larnach, Vazquez, and Matthews sounds a bit steep and you are worried that this move could be a step backward, is there some substitutions possible? Castro and Julien in place of Larnach?

Parting with Larnach would push the Twins OF depth. If E Rod is legit not so much. But until he plays at least 1 full season that seems more like hope then reality... It would make Castro probably #1 LF. His value is his flexibility he provides with the silly amount of substituting Roco does...

Subing Julien for Larnach may work. Selling low on Julien hurts. If I remember right the Padres need a starting catcher, 2b and LF along with pitching #4 or #5 starter. Might have to swap out Festa for Matthews. I really like Festa. For 1 year of Cease?...IDK

23 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Subing Julien for Larnach may work. Selling low on Julien hurts. If I remember right the Padres need a starting catcher, 2b and LF along with pitching #4 or #5 starter. Might have to swap out Festa for Matthews. I really like Festa. For 1 year of Cease?...IDK

Trading Larnach is a risk, for sure. Festa is a no though.

Twins and Padres have their work cut out for themselves as they fight to put together rosters that manage to compete for a playoff position without causing any harm to their futures.

All 3 trades are trash. No way any team especially the Twins should give up any of those packages for a rental pitcher. 

And don't forget this is a pitcher from San Diego, they seem to deal a guy and then he ends up getting hurt right away. The master of dealing damaged goods.

I'd like to see the Twins trade for him and then try and extend him with new ownership.  That would be phenomenal.

Looks like the Padres got cheap catcher and outfielder. So no longer need to talk to the Twins, who will not take on the salary.

None of these packages are enough to get Cease for a year plus the comp pick you get when he signs elsewhere next year. Padres want quality, not quantity. Does Erod + Paddack get it done? I would do that trade if I'm the Twins.