Article: Inside, Outside And Truth

[diehardtwinsfan]

Adding my voice to the chorus--excellent article.

 

But I want to expand on "That projection is a range of possibilities, but it's a statistically backed range. We average them out and derive a destination." This is completely accurate in the sense of how people on the outside tend to behave. But that behavior represents a gross misunderstanding of statistical analysis. It is not statistically valid to assign characterizations of a sample group to any one data point. You can use statistics to predict an average outcome for a group of people. You can use statistics to say for example (I'm making this up) that 90% of pitchers in AAA who strike out less than 7 batters per nine innings will never win more than 1 major league game. But that doesn't mean that it's unlikely that a specifically idientified pitcher in AAA who strikes out less than 7 per 9 will succeed. People throw out statements like "the odds of Bob hitting above .250 are slim" based on some sort of analysis of other players. But it's meaningless, because there aren't a bunch of Bobs. There's just the one, and he could end up anywhere.

 

Saying the same thing more statistically, if batting averages are normally distributed and the population mean is .250, then when estimating the mean of a sample group you can say that you have x% confidence that it will between .250 plus or minus y. The smaller the sample size, the smaller x is and/or the greater y is. And for a sample size of 1, assuming a large population, either x is so small or y is so big that your conclusion is useless. For example, you could say that you're 99% confident that the one person will hit between .000 and .500. But you didn't need statistical analysis to tell you that.

 

A demographer can tell in a group of 10,000 people all the same age, about how many will die this year. But assuming comparable health, s/he has no idea which ones will die. A sabermetrician can tell you of a group of 1000 ballplayers with a given characteristic, how many will make the majors. But s/he can't tell you which ones. Could be any of them. So like a doctor works with people to assess their health, so the coach has to work with each of the players to figure out which ones will make the grade. And even then, neither the doc nor the coach is going to be right 100% of the time.

 

Well said.

[Since71]

Wow ! Great article. Really improved my insight. I Love Colabello's story and hope that the Twins at least give him a fair look. I thought the way he was used last year was not conducive to getting a realistic look at what he could or could not do. I have no idea if he can be a productive player at the MLB level or not, but I know that giving him a start every 3 or 4 days isn't going to tell us.

[stringer bell]

I'm really hoping for Kyle Gibson to be much improved this year. He's no longer a young prospect, so I hope the breakthrough is this year.

 

As far as Colabello goes, he is a hitter, so he has to hit. I just don't like his approach at the plate and major league pitchers worked him hard. I can't see him hitting big league pitching, but I sure hope I'm wrong.

[cmathewson]

In what role can Chris Colabello possibly help outside of pinch hitting and DH against southpaws. He assuredly cannot help in his defensive outfield play, can he? Again as I said before and maintain strongly peopling a roster with folks like him guarantees a team totaling 90 loss seasons. I wish Chris well but in Rochester not in Minnesota as that is simply not going to happen. If he were to have had a decent MLB career it would have happened five years ago or so.

 

I think he could be a useful bench bat if we had room for a right-handed DH/PH/back-up 1B. Well, not if he hits like he did last year, but if he makes adjustments. He has an unorthodox hitting style with huge holes in his swing. In AAA, pitchers struggle to exploit those holes. In the majors, not so much. The trouble is, the kind of adjustment he needs to make requires daily at bats, typically. It is tough to do as a PH and occasional DH.

 

Also, I don't know if the roster will accommodate such a player. I continue to hear talk of 13 pitchers, which means three back-ups, including a catcher, an infielder and an outfielder. The infielder needs to be able to play every infield position and the outfielder needs to play every outfield position. That doesn't leave much room for a guy like Colabello. If they go north with 12 pitchers, maybe. Even then, they might prefer Kubel in the bench bat role assuming the corners are manned by Parmelee, Arcia and Willingham with the DH rotating among them.

 

If they take 13 pitchers, the bench will have Pinto, Bartlett and Presley, assuming Hicks starts in center and Suzuki starts at catcher. Lots of people think the infielder will be Escobar, but I just don't see him being able to play first base. Bartlett has been working out there a lot. Lots of people prefer Fryer at catcher. I just don't understand that. What does Pinto need to do to earn a job? Some people think Hicks should go to AAA. I don't get that either. He proved he could handle it up here in May and June last year, at least as well as Presley.

[stringer bell]

Hicks only had 25 ABs in June, so basically you are talking about one month where he hit satisfactorily. For one month, Trevor Plouffe was Babe Ruth. I firmly believe Hicks should and will start the season in Rochester. I presume a recall will happen early, but that depends on players' health and Hicks' performance. On Pinto, I think another month of Triple A won't hurt and might help and that it certainly will give the Twins control of his contract for another year.

[cmathewson]

Hicks only had 25 ABs in June, so basically you are talking about one month where he hit satisfactorily. For one month, Trevor Plouffe was Babe Ruth. I firmly believe Hicks should and will start the season in Rochester. I presume a recall will happen early, but that depends on players' health and Hicks' performance. On Pinto, I think another month of Triple A won't hurt and might help and that it certainly will give the Twins control of his contract for another year.

 

If two players have about the same success in the majors, all things considered, you take the more talented guy because he has higher upside. I don't know what Hicks can learn in AAA. When healthy, he did fine in AAA. His problem there was an injury. All that said, the team they go north with is rarely the team they have in June. As long as he's the starter in June, I'll be OK with it. But I still think he's better now and in the future than Presley.

[stringer bell]

If two players have about the same success in the majors, all things considered, you take the more talented guy because he has higher upside. I don't know what Hicks can learn in AAA. When healthy, he did fine in AAA. His problem there was an injury. All that said, the team they go north with is rarely the team they have in June. As long as he's the starter in June, I'll be OK with it. But I still think he's better now and in the future than Presley.

Presley is a 4th OF, who can play an acceptable center field. This is about Hicks' development. I disagree that he "did OK" at Rochester, he had a .650 OPS in about 80 PAs. I certainly don't think that he mastered the level. I would say that Presley "did OK" in Minnesota, but that only really qualifies him as a fourth OF, if that. Presley is 28. I doubt there is much more development left.

[cmathewson]

Presley is a 4th OF, who can play an acceptable center field. This is about Hicks' development. I disagree that he "did OK" at Rochester, he had a .650 OPS in about 80 PAs. I certainly don't think that he mastered the level. I would say that Presley "did OK" in Minnesota, but that only really qualifies him as a fourth OF, if that. Presley is 28. I doubt there is much more development left.

 

Yes. So you're saying you want a fourth outfielder starting in the majors, with little hope that he'll improve? I don't.

[stringer bell]

Yes. So you're saying you want a fourth outfielder starting in the majors, with little hope that he'll improve? I don't.

Until Hicks finds his footing in Rochester, yes. I think Presley will be acceptable for then and the transition would be easy with Hicks taking over and Presley moving into the 4th OF role. I think Hicks needs more than 100 Triple A plate appearances to build his confidence. It also sends the wrong message to all the other young players. Just because he's a high draft choice with "tools" doesn't mean he can claim a spot on the big league roster. Spring training means something, but spring training stats mean pretty close to nothing. The Twins thought that Hicks could handle the major leagues, but he didn't. Hicks didn't perform well enough in Rochester to be called back in September. I think he now has to prove it outside of spring training that he's ready to go back to Minnesota.

[h2oface]

What I remember about Gibson last year was that he got pinched on the strike zone drastically. So many of his great pitches just on the plate, especially the low part of the zone, were called balls. Bad umpiring making one almost throw it right down the middle to get a strike call. It is hard to not be nervous in those conditions. Until fx calls the balls and strikes, and it will and should, the game will continue to be compromised by blue, and the fake strike zones will affect the game more than can be quantified.

[cmathewson]

Until Hicks finds his footing in Rochester, yes. I think Presley will be acceptable for then and the transition would be easy with Hicks taking over and Presley moving into the 4th OF role. I think Hicks needs more than 100 Triple A plate appearances to build his confidence. It also sends the wrong message to all the other young players. Just because he's a high draft choice with "tools" doesn't mean he can claim a spot on the big league roster. Spring training means something, but spring training stats mean pretty close to nothing. The Twins thought that Hicks could handle the major leagues, but he didn't. Hicks didn't perform well enough in Rochester to be called back in September. I think he now has to prove it outside of spring training that he's ready to go back to Minnesota.

 

That wouldn't suck. Pretty much what they did last year after the all-star break. It would take a roster spot to move Mastro off the 40-man to fill the fourth outfielder spot. And since he's out of options, you'd have to DFA him to send him down when you want to call up Hicks. Maybe they'd do that. Not sure 100 PAs against weaker pitching makes that much difference in the grand scheme of things.

[Dman]

You could say the exact same thing about Randy Ruiz as well...

 

just sayin'

 

Sure I get that. There is no guarantee he makes the transition to the majors, but I don't think you give up on a guy like that until you know for sure.

[lukingood]

To those who say Colabello cannot be an asset to the Twins, I disagree. He obviously can hit as witnessed by his minor league numbers. And having a home-run threat in the late innings who can come off the bench is a luxury that not many major league teams have. I personally hope that he makes the team and I believe he will contribute.

[old nurse]

Sure I get that. There is no guarantee he makes the transition to the majors, but I don't think you give up on a guy like that until you know for sure.

 

Ruiz was a slow pudgy guy who was only going to get slower as he aged. Colabello would appear to have put up better numbers in the minors than Ruiz. You would be correct until Thyrlos can come up with a better example.

[Thrylos]

Ruiz was a slow pudgy guy who was only going to get slower as he aged. Colabello would appear to have put up better numbers in the minors than Ruiz. .

 

Perceptions

 

Ruiz' career minor league numbers: .305/.377/.535, 229HR, 48SB/31CS (13 seasons)

(and he hit .272/.332/.488 with 12 HR (and 2 SBs) in 217 MLB ABs)

Colabello's career minor and independent league numbers: .315/.389/.522 129HR, 25SB/22CS (9 seasons)

 

So. Their slash lines are pretty much the same and Ruiz has more power and more speed than Colabello. And Ruiz was 30 while Colabello 29 in their first MLB call ups.

 

I'd say they are pretty darn good comparables.

[TKGuy]

While Chris Colabello may be a good person that does not translate into him being able to help the Twins, I do not think. How many posters agree with Seth's assessment of Chris? To me if and when you put people like this on a MLB roster you are heading for another season of 90 plus losses. Gibson on the other hand has potential to help the team, Colabello does not.

 

I disagree, our bench has been atrocious the last couple of years and I believe Colabello is a good RH bench player who can DH against lefties and spell Arcia or Parmalee

[Dman]

Ruiz was a slow pudgy guy who was only going to get slower as he aged. Colabello would appear to have put up better numbers in the minors than Ruiz. You would be correct until Thyrlos can come up with a better example.

 

Call me a sap but there is something special about Collabello. To me I feel like he is sold out on making this team. If he just wanted to make money or security he could have went to that Korean league. If he was afraid he couldn't make it in the Majors he could have run. Instead he seems more focused than ever on realizing his dream. He is not giving up on himself and in my mind he is digging in. Motivated, fearless, talented, I think he could be special. It just feels like he has what it takes to make it to me.