2014 MLB Draft Thread

[maxisagod]

Matt Garrioch North Region write up, Includes MN, WI, IA, ND, and SD.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/15/5717610/2014-mlb-draft-north-region

[nicksaviking]

I just can't see Gatewood sliding to 46. Even if he doesn't go in the 1st round, which I find pretty suspect, 12 teams get thier 2nd pick before the Twins while division rivals Kansas City and Cleveland along with Houston get their third picks before the Twins get their second and Miami will pick 4 times before the Twins get their second.

 

The Twins will NOT be getting the cream of the crop of the second round bargains. Houston and KC in particular have shown that they like to go with this underslot/overslot stratagy in fact. If the Twins really like Gatewood, it will have to be at #5, and I don't see that happening though I do like the guy a lot.

[nicksaviking]

Matt Garrioch North Region write up, Includes MN, WI, IA, ND, and SD.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/15/5717610/2014-mlb-draft-north-region

 

Ineresting, only 10 college players out of 51. None of them currently play for the Gophers either.

[Mike Sixel]

I just can't see Gatewood sliding to 46. Even if he doesn't go in the 1st round, which I find pretty suspect, 12 teams get thier 2nd pick before the Twins while division rivals Kansas City and Cleveland along with Houston get their third picks before the Twins get their second and Miami will pick 4 times before the Twins get their second.

 

The Twins will NOT be getting the cream of the crop of the second round bargains. Houston and KC in particular have shown that they like to go with this underslot/overslot stratagy in fact. If the Twins really like Gatewood, it will have to be at #5, and I don't see that happening though I do like the guy a lot.

 

I agree with all of this.

[maxisagod]

I just can't see Gatewood sliding to 46....

 

The only way it happens, is if the Twins and Gatewood come to a high predraft deal (coupled with savings at 5), and Gatewood's representatives ask him not to be drafted or for the teams to beat the Twins amount. Even if another team drafts him and offers him less, it might make him unsignable, because his self value is viewed to be whatever the Twins offered and he goes the college route.

This happened with that @$$hole catcher from the last draft... Jon Denney who went to The Red Sox in the 3rd. A 1st Round talent with character flaws, that allowed him to fall out of day 1. Twins called to ask his price, and his adviser, let them know they came to a deal with The Red Sox. The Twins respected this and didn't draft him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There's definitely a few teams with sandwich round picks that could do the underslot/overslot thing well. That said, this is a very deep draft and between high ceiling highschool pitchers, guys like Fede and Hoffman, and potentially gatewood, there's a good chance that there will be some highly thought after first round talent available at pick number 46. I don't think the Twins need to set their site on WHO nearly as much as considering the possibilities of grabbing someone.

 

Personally, if they went and took Gordon at 5, I could care less if they ended up with Gatewood, Hoffman, Fede, or any of the high ceiling HS arms that are going to be tough signs, because at the end of the day, they essentially got two first rounders out of the deal.

[zenser]

I would be happy with Gordon, Jackson, any one of the big three pitchers that probably won't be there at 5, or that Touki Toussant.

[kab21]

I will not be happy if Gatewood is the pick at #5 even if it's an underslot deal. His hit tool is frightening. He has awesome power but there's a high likelihood that he becomes a complete bust.

[oldguy10]

Could someone please explain the underslot/overslot situation with the MLB teams plus the rules governing them or direct us to a primer about it.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Kiley McDaniel posted his first mock this morning. All the usual suspects. Nola, Jackson, Finnegan get mentions. Freeland as a dark-horse.

 

After reading the Gatewood stuff yesterday, I did some digging. Obviously I wasn't going to get a "yes" or "no" in regards to the rumor, but the source called it "interesting". I do think, though, that the Twins are convinced he's going to be a package that hits and hits for power and has a rare size/bat speed combo. I read separately that Gatewood wants a chance to play SS in the pros, but there's no chance he sticks there (not really news). I do find it interesting that he's now being listed as an OF quite often.

 

When I did a draft board a few months ago, I had it pretty locked in that at that time the Twins considered him in their Top 10. With that being said, I would put him on the periphery instead of solidly in the mix.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Could someone please explain the underslot/overslot situation with the MLB teams plus the rules governing them or direct us to a primer about it.

 

Each pick in the top 10 rounds has a specific dollar amount tied to it. The teams pools are determined by adding up all of those picks. The Twins first pick is worth $3,851,000. So essentially whatever they don't spend on their first pick, they can re-allocate to the rest of the draft. Rounds 11-40 can go as high as $100,000 without counting towards the pool. Anything over that counts against the cap.

 

On the flip side, if it's going to take more than "slot" to sign a guy, you're borrowing against your other picks and likely taking lesser players.

 

If you go over your pool, you face penalties of fines and the loss of draft picks.

[tobi0040]

Kiley McDaniel posted his first mock this morning. All the usual suspects. Nola, Jackson, Finnegan get mentions. Freeland as a dark-horse.

 

After reading the Gatewood stuff yesterday, I did some digging. Obviously I wasn't going to get a "yes" or "no" in regards to the rumor, but the source called it "interesting". I do think, though, that the Twins are convinced he's going to be a package that hits and hits for power and has a rare size/bat speed combo. I read separately that Gatewood wants a chance to play SS in the pros, but there's no chance he sticks there (not really news). I do find it interesting that he's now being listed as an OF quite often.

 

When I did a draft board a few months ago, I had it pretty locked in that at that time the Twins considered him in their Top 10. With that being said, I would put him on the periphery instead of solidly in the mix.

 

Jeremy, what is your sense on the Twins interest in Nola? Based on Keith Law and others, he is a guy that could be up quick but lacks plus pitches and projects as a #4 starter. I would be extremely dissapointed if that was haul at #5 overall.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Jeremy, what is your sense on the Twins interest in Nola? Based on Keith Law and others, he is a guy that could be up quick but lacks plus pitches and projects as a #4 starter. I would be extremely dissapointed if that was haul at #5 overall.

 

It's hard to ignore all the reports. Add in the fact that the Twins have gotten a long look at the LSU product and there might be something cooking. The Twins have been very active in drafting pitchers from that area as well. Area scout Greg Runser has been behind the drafting of Stewart, Eades, Duffey, Chargois and Duffey (and maybe more) in just the past two years.

 

For me, it's going to come down to the number the scouts put down as their expected bonus. (And I have no idea what those numbers are, but let's play a little game.)

 

Which do you choose?

 

Alex Jackson at #5, who will cost every penny of the bonus and might prevent you from taking a high-schooler who dropped in round 2, leaving you with a low-ceiling, high-floor college pitcher.

 

Nick Gordon at #5, who might save you a couple hundred thousand that you could then invest in a player (probably singular) that dropped (either in round 2 or later on Day 2).

 

Aaron Nola at #5, who might sign for $3m and save $800K. Now you can have your pick of the h.s. litter at 46, probably can roll the dice on another high schooler on Day 2 that fell (think Gonsalves-ish) and might even leave you enough that you can sign another guy in the middle rounds that you had no chance to sign before (think Logan Shore-ish). Maybe $800k doesn't get you all of those things, but it does go a long way.

[tobi0040]

It's hard to ignore all the reports. Add in the fact that the Twins have gotten a long look at the LSU product and there might be something cooking. The Twins have been very active in drafting pitchers from that area as well. Area scout Greg Runser has been behind the drafting of Stewart, Eades, Duffey, Chargois and Duffey (and maybe more) in just the past two years.

 

For me, it's going to come down to the number the scouts put down as their expected bonus. (And I have no idea what those numbers are, but let's play a little game.)

 

Which do you choose?

 

Alex Jackson at #5, who will cost every penny of the bonus and might prevent you from taking a high-schooler who dropped in round 2, leaving you with a low-ceiling, high-floor college pitcher.

 

Nick Gordon at #5, who might save you a couple hundred thousand that you could then invest in a player (probably singular) that dropped (either in round 2 or later on Day 2).

 

Aaron Nola at #5, who might sign for $3m and save $800K. Now you can have your pick of the h.s. litter at 46, probably can roll the dice on another high schooler on Day 2 that fell (think Gonsalves-ish) and might even leave you enough that you can sign another guy in the middle rounds that you had no chance to sign before (think Logan Shore-ish). Maybe $800k doesn't get you all of those things, but it does go a long way.

 

I am guessing these conversations have taken place. But picking at #5 overall based on what you may end up getting at 46 is a lousy strategy in my opinion.

 

Here are the last ten players the Twins have selected between 40 and 50 overall:

 

Eades, Tyler, Bozied, Sents, Bell, Davidson, Durant, Newman, Gassner, and Niewenhuis.

 

Looking at the drafts between 2002 and 2009, picks 4-7 you have 32 total picks. I find 10 absolute studs and 5 more decent players.

 

Studs - Greinke, Fielder, Bailey, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulowitski, Kershaw, Wieters, Posey, and Wheeler.

 

Decent to good players - Markakis, Ricky Romero, Andrew Miller, Mike Minor, Brandon Morrow.

 

If we have a 31% chance at the stud list and a 16% chance at the second list, seems like a no brainer to me, makes more sense than even a 100% chance at getting a #4 starter.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg

[nicksaviking]

It's hard to ignore all the reports. Add in the fact that the Twins have gotten a long look at the LSU product and there might be something cooking.

 

The Twins have been very active in drafting pitchers from that area as well. Aaron Nola at #5, who might sign for $3m and save $800K. Now you can have your pick of the h.s. litter at 46, probably can roll the dice on another high schooler on Day 2 that fell (think Gonsalves-ish) and might even leave you enough that you can sign another guy in the middle rounds that you had no chance to sign before (think Logan Shore-ish). Maybe $800k doesn't get you all of those things, but it does go a long way.

 

There will be 12 teams picking their 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th selection or a total of 18 players before the Twins pick their second. I really, really want a high upside HS with the second, but the Twins can't go into this thinking they'll get thier pick of the litter. They'll get stuck with the runt, at least comparativley speaking as Houston, KC, Clevland, Miami and 8 other teams are going to get first crack at the thoroughbreds.

 

I know the Twins have watched Nola a lot. Man I hope the Cubs take that possibility away from them. I don't see it happening though. I don't recall Epstien/Hoyer going after control pitchers in the past. They've seemed to target guys who were perceived to miss bats at the next level.

[tobi0040]

There will be 12 teams picking their 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th selection or a total of 18 players before the Twins pick their second. I really, really want a high upside HS with the second, but the Twins can't go into this thinking they'll get thier pick of the litter. They'll get stuck with the runt, at least comparativley speaking as Houston, KC, Clevland, Miami and 8 other teams are going to get first crack at the thoroughbreds.

 

I know the Twins have watched Nola a lot. Man I hope the Cubs take that possibility away from them. I don't see it happening though. I don't recall Epstien/Hoyer going after control pitchers in the past. They've seemed to target guys who were perceived to miss bats at the next level.

 

The other point is, Kohl signed at slot value last year and we still were able to sign Gonslaves.

 

Nola will be available at #5. I really hope we pass and take the upside. I don't want Kevin C. at #5 overall.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I really, really want a high upside HS with the second, but the Twins can't go into this thinking they'll get their pick of the litter. They'll get stuck with the runt

 

Maybe not the right choice of words, but they're should still be some high-upside arms available.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The other point is, Kohl signed at slot value last year and we still were able to sign Gonslaves.

 

The Twins saved money on Garver, who was a senior and signed for only $40K. A steal to be sure.

[tobi0040]

The Twins saved money on Garver, who was a senior and signed for only $40K. A steal to be sure.

 

Garver was a 9th round pick. I like the save money on the 9th rounder option much better. Heck, I would rather we draft Gardy's dog in the 9th round if it meant we are taking BPA at #5.

[nicksaviking]

Maybe not the right choice of words, but they're should still be some high-upside arms available.

 

Sure there will, but I guess my point is that the Twins draft too far down in the 2nd this year. I find it very unlikely they get a shot at this years, Lance McCullers or Sean Manaea. The other "upside" HS kids likely will still be signable regardless of who the 1st pick.

[kab21]

John Manuel posted an interesting mock at BA today. (I don't think it's been mentioned yet).

 

1. Rodon

2. Jackson

3. Aiken

4. Freeland - mentions that the Cubs are looking for a college starter

5. Gordon - Kolek/Gordon mentioned

6. Nola

7. Kolek - specifically mentions the high number of hard throwing HS draftees needing TJ as one reason teams might avoid him.

 

I like Gordon a fair amount but I would prefer Jackson or Kolek if they are available.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Jon Mayo's first mock.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Heck, I would rather we draft Gardy's dog in the 9th round if it meant we are taking BPA at #5.

 

I'm always for BPA. Always. But when there is no clear BPA (and it's rather large group), I will let money factor into the decision.

[tobi0040]

I'm always for BPA. Always. But when there is no clear BPA (and it's rather large group), I will let money factor into the decision.

 

If you look at potential, Nola should not be considered at #5. Nobody is saying his potential matches Jackson, Gordon, Touki, or Freeland.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If you look at potential, Nola should not be considered at #5. Nobody is saying his potential matches Jackson, Gordon, Touki, or Freeland.

 

Right. That clouds up BPA even more. Some might go with ceiling, others might consider floor. Nola certainly has the highest floor of the guys you mentioned. Touki probably has the highest ceiling.

 

Stewart was the BPA last year in that his ceiling was the highest and his present tools - though far from his ceiling - were too much to ignore.

 

There's no slam dunk once Rodon and Aiken go off the board, even Kolek has some questions. Gordon might be the best bet? But all subject to an argument.

[cmb0252]

John Manuel posted an interesting mock at BA today. (I don't think it's been mentioned yet).

 

1. Rodon

2. Jackson

3. Aiken

4. Freeland - mentions that the Cubs are looking for a college starter

5. Gordon - Kolek/Gordon mentioned

6. Nola

7. Kolek - specifically mentions the high number of hard throwing HS draftees needing TJ as one reason teams might avoid him.

 

I like Gordon a fair amount but I would prefer Jackson or Kolek if they are available.

 

Very interesting mock to say the least. Would love Kolek to fall to the Twins at #5.

[tobi0040]

Right. That clouds up BPA even more. Some might go with ceiling, others might consider floor. Nola certainly has the highest floor of the guys you mentioned. Touki probably has the highest ceiling.

 

Stewart was the BPA last year in that his ceiling was the highest and his present tools - though far from his ceiling - were too much to ignore.

 

There's no slam dunk once Rodon and Aiken go off the board, even Kolek has some questions. Gordon might be the best bet? But all subject to an argument.

 

I don't doubt that Nola has the highest floor. Consensus seems to be best case #3 starter, most likely #4 starter. But you have to question the end game to that strategy, because the draft is the best and close to the only avenue the Twins are every going to be able to acquire high ceiling talent, espeically since the international free agent market has exploded. So if you draft five Nola's and you have a rotation of #3/#4 starters, guess what, you are not a playoff team.

 

Even the Twins can afford #3/4 starters on the free agent market. But if you look at some of the talent from the list I put out there of guys drafted 4-7, Braun, Kershaw, Prince, Greinke, Tulo, Posey, etc. Those were not high floor low ceiling picks and we have literally no shot at guys like that in free agency.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Nola is probably the guy I'd be most disappointed in, so you don't have to argue with me about it. I was simply saying that he's probably the Best Player Right Now that will be on the board, so while I support the BPA approach, it's not black and white.

[tobi0040]

Nola is probably the guy I'd be most disappointed in, so you don't have to argue with me about it. I was simply saying that he's probably the Best Player Right Now that will be on the board, so while I support the BPA approach, it's not black and white.

 

Sounds good, what is your sense about Kolek? I would think we have to take Kolek, Rodon, or Aiken if available right, i.e. Manuels mock.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Also, Michael Wacha and Sonny Gray were considered a high-floor, low-ceiling guys when they were drafted and both fell because of it. I'd have to look back through old notes, but I don't think either were considered top-of-the-rotation arms. Instead, they were probably in the category that we're putting Nola in today.