Article: MLB Power Rankings #29: Minnesota Twins

[Willihammer]

I say this every year but I think team Cuba could surprise some people. 3 pretty good lefties in that rotation and if the timing is right, they could match up favorably in 3-4 game series within the division, with Detroit being the only real RH-heavy lineup.

 

I think Abreu will rake. Dunn is always a threat (contract year). Eaton, Viciedo, Garcia... definitely upside.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Boy, it's hard to be a Twins fan right now.

 

"Hey, I think the White Sox are the 28th best team in baseball."

 

"No, the Twins are 28th. The Sox are 29th."

 

"I'm gonna go watch some soccer."

[bird]

You guys crack me up....As Chief says, we are arguing over which team is likely to be bottom 5 vs bottom 10 in the entirety of MLB.....both teams are likely to BAD again this year. Sure, they both have some hope....but hope isn't "likeliness".....

 

You're absolutely right, mike, there's practically zero chance either team will even reach the level of mediocrity in 2014. But there's nothing wrong with hope unless it's false hope, and that's the difference between the teams. I certainly wouldn't tune in to watch the Twins if there was little hope. But here's why I'm willng to tolerate whatever happens in 2014: Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, Gibson, Tonkin, Meyer, and Sano. I hope they ALL contribute by or before 2015, and it's very highly likely that most of them will. That's a boatload of hope,and then it gets even better: Buxton, Rosario, Santana, May, Gilmartin, Baxendale, and Turner. Another seven who could possibly arrive as early as 2015. So that's 14 players that make the hope very real and huge improvement very likely, starting in 2014 and accelerating.

 

The Twins have 12 prosects who have been ranked among baseball's top 125 prospects by various credible sources. Twelve!! The White Sox? Three.

 

The Twins will be more fun to watch in 2014. ecae wehave real hope arriving.

[bird]

Twelve prospects ranked among MLB to 125 in the past tw years: Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, Rosario, Pinto, Berrios, Gibson, Hicks, Arcia, Kepler, and Thorpe.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, 2015 and beyond looks promising....but this is about 2014 and outcomes. It isn't even about if they are more or less fun to watch due to youth, which is what I think will happen this year, finally. The discussion was about outcomes in 2014.

 

As a warning on "prospects" and the future, there is a nice article on Fangraphs reminding us that SD had traded a bunch of vets for prospects, and had the #1 farm system in the league three years ago.....and thanks to injuries and other problems, they now have a mid-tier farm system, and little improvement (or actual worsening) at the MLB level. Not trying to say I think that will happen, but it reminds us that until a guy is good at the MLB level, its all projection.

[ashbury]

Those two take away hits. ...

UZR? I don't belong to that church.

 

If they take away hits, it should show up somewhere in the record, and should be measurable (even if indirectly). What way of verifying a middle infielder's hits-taken-away do you like, instead?

[ashbury]

What a sad state of affairs for our favorite team...we're reduced to arguing whether the Twins or the Sox are really the worst team in the league.

 

Don't overlook the Astros. It's hard to repeat but they have a shot.

[bird]

Sorry, I missed the fine print that restricted the conversation about the power rankings to 2014 outcomes.

 

So, sticking to that, the outcome for 2014, for me, will be a much more fun, interesting, and hopeful season and the Twins will end up with a better poewr ranking than #26. Even better that Chicago.

 

And San Diego's farm system was no match for the Twins in 2014, not even close.

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins haven't hauled in the quality or quantity of starting pitchers we've seen this offseason since, what, 1991? While "we've heard it before", it doesn't really apply here.

 

Well, if you base those acquisitions on their production last year....how much of an improvement will it really be? You are basing the improvement of the staff on the improvement of those pitchers...not their storied histories of success in the AL. So you're writing in as near-certain things that weren't even true last year. Then doing the reverse when you assess the Sox. Just not a fair analysis.

 

The Sox aren't in the midst of deploying five top 100 prospects to the MLB roster in 15 months. They may have optimism but it's not very grounded.

 

How many of those will be here this year and for how much of the year? I don't think that's very settled, that's a major wild card quite frankly. I'd wager most of them are closer to 15 months than 5.

[Mike Sixel]

Sorry, I missed the fine print that restricted the conversation about the power rankings to 2014 outcomes.

 

So, sticking to that, the outcome for 2014, for me, will be a much more fun, interesting, and hopeful season and the Twins will end up with a better poewr ranking than #26. Even better that Chicago.

 

And San Diego's farm system was no match for the Twins in 2014, not even close.

 

ha, good one on the "restriction".....I got the feeling you were arguing against a point I was not making, that's what I was trying to say, but didn't.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, if you base those acquisitions on their production last year....how much of an improvement will it really be? You are basing the improvement of the staff on the improvement of those pitchers...not their storied histories of success in the AL. So you're writing in as near-certain things that weren't even true last year. Then doing the reverse when you assess the Sox. Just not a fair analysis.

 

I'm not discounting Chicago at all. Sale and Quintana combined for 10 WAR, yet the Sox only won 63 games. How much more improvement is possible with that staff?

 

I'm expecting improvement for Hughes, sure... But not Nolasco. Considering how he's replacing a negative WAR pitcher, it's not unreasonable to expect a 2-3 win improvement from him alone. As for Hughes, I don't see how anyone would predict him to not improve over 2013 and by a significant margin.

 

Again, it's not so much that either Hughes or Nolasco are amazing pitchers... It's that the guys they're replacing were below replacement level. At that point, it's not hard to see improvement and significant improvement, at that.

 

How many of those will be here this year and for how much of the year? I don't think that's very settled, that's a major wild card quite frankly. I'd wager most of them are closer to 15 months than 5.

 

Hicks, Gibson, and Arcia will see significant playing time out of Spring Training or shortly thereafter (barring implosion). If Sano is healthy, I don't see how he isn't up here by July (unless Plouffe goes nuts, at which point we're looking at a significant improvement at third already). Meyer is more of a question mark. When he gets here is dependent on a lot of factors including how the rest of the pitching staff is performing (again, if he's not up and he's healthy, that's a good sign for the Twins' staff).

[Jim Crikket]

How many of those will be here this year and for how much of the year? I don't think that's very settled, that's a major wild card quite frankly. I'd wager most of them are closer to 15 months than 5.

 

It's certainly not settled, I agree, but that's really the million-dollar question, isn't it?

 

What scenario makes it most likely that we see Meyer, Sano and Buxton all by mid-season? Would a terrible start cause Terry Ryan to trade every player he doesn't see as part of the long-term future and promote these guys (and probably more) by mid-season? Or would an unlikely run that keeps the Twins just within striking distance of contention be more likely to cause the GM to roll the dice and see if his top 3 prospects might improve the rotation (Meyer), defense (Buxton), power (Sano) and speed (Buxton) enough to make things really interesting for fans in August anyway?

[Riverbrian]

If they take away hits, it should show up somewhere in the record, and should be measurable (even if indirectly). What way of verifying a middle infielder's hits-taken-away do you like, instead?

 

The ol' eyeball. I used to pick women the same way.

[ashbury]

The ol' eyeball. I used to pick women the same way.

 

If you pick bats the same way, you can wind up with Joe Benson.

[Guest USAFChief]

Don't overlook the Astros. It's hard to repeat but they have a shot.

Houston is in the National Lea...You're right. Forgot about Houston.

[ashbury]

Forgot about Houston.

 

So have their fans, going by the legendary 0.0 Nielsen rating for one of the games last season.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/astros-drew-0-0-tv-rating-sunday-houston-215342880--mlb.html

[Kwak]

Discussing the White Sox is pathetic--unless you go to a CWS site. They are not the quality standard of MLB that the Twins should use to self-evaluate.

[Riverbrian]

If you pick bats the same way, you can wind up with Joe Benson.

 

Ha!!! I just don't have a lot of faith in defensive statistics. I don't think they are fully cooked yet.

 

Offensive stats... I'm into them... However, just because a player hits .220 it doesn't mean he won't perform better in the future so I go back to the Ol' Eyeball a lot.

 

I'm not a stat prude by any stretch of the imagination. I know them all.

 

I'm just more into the "why" they are producing such stats... Swing... Focus... Approach.

 

Improve those things and the stats look better.

 

The Ol' Eyeball tells me the White Sox were a bad baseball team and so were the Twins. They both can get a lot better real quick with better swings... focus and approach.

[twinsnorth49]

Discussing the White Sox is pathetic--unless you go to a CWS site. They are not the quality standard of MLB that the Twins should use to self-evaluate.

 

Well I don't think anyone is saying that, nobody is aspiring for the Twins to be the CWS. They are a good comparison at the moment for current , relative level of competitiveness however, which is close to zero.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not discounting Chicago at all. Sale and Quintana combined for 10 WAR, yet the Sox only won 63 games. How much more improvement is possible with that staff?

 

You're certainly discounting offensive improvement from them. Essentially, that's where their improvement will come from to leapfrog us. Eaton, Abreu, Dunn, Garcia are all potential players to improve production from last year.

 

Nolasco is certain to be improvement. Pelfrey and Hughes? No more or less certain than that group above IMO. A similar case could be made for all of them. I would also mention it wouldn't be shocking if both teams saw a bullpen tumble from last year. The Twins may have more to lose from that than the Sox.

 

Hicks, Gibson, and Arcia will see significant playing time out of Spring Training or shortly thereafter (barring implosion).

 

Arcia likely will. He also started showing some signs of struggle the second half of his time up with the team. Hicks? Would it really be shocking if he was in AAA until August? I'm not sure what the odds are on that but it's far from a given he makes the team before June 1 IMO.

 

Gibson would need to have the Twins have A) significant injuries or give up on Worley and Diamond. I, again, find those odds less than a given.

 

As Jim rightly says, the Twins million dollar question is when those kids come up. At this point I don't see how any of us can do any more than guess on that. I think you're planning on it too much and you're not giving the Sox a fair chance to improve their god-awful offense given their similar acquisitions.

[Mike Sixel]

I will be so frustrated if a 26 year old future number 3/4 starter sits in AAA all year.....or even half a year. There won't be many pitches left in his arm if they don't call him up....

[PseudoSABR]

The Twins have much better depth in the rotation, their best prospects are close to the show, and the young players are more seasoned. It's hard to fathom them doing equally as bad as last year. I expect substantial improvement; though how much improvement largely depends on the contribution from their prospects and other youngsters.

[TheLeviathan]

How does having more 5th starters in AAA and good players in AA impact this year at all? If we're talking 2015, I'm in the Twins camp by a mile.

 

For 2014 the White Sox have plenty of reasons their awful offense wcould improve with Dunn, Eaton, Abreu, PHegley, Davidson, and Viceido all candidates for significant improvement. I just think that should be fairly accounted for.

[jokin]

Discussing the White Sox is pathetic--unless you go to a CWS site. They are not the quality standard of MLB that the Twins should use to self-evaluate.

 

Agreed. Unfortunately, they're the team in our current "peer group"....that's the group that on a daily basis thanks their good fortune of having the Astros migrate to the AL and quickly assume the the "most pathetic" mantle all to themselves.

[jokin]

How does having more 5th starters in AAA and good players in AA impact this year at all? If we're talking 2015, I'm in the Twins camp by a mile.

 

For 2014 the White Sox have plenty of reasons their awful offense wcould improve with Dunn, Eaton, Abreu, PHegley, Davidson, and Viceido all candidates for significant improvement. I just think that should be fairly accounted for.

 

Don't forget Avisail Garcia, the dude's 22, dominated AAA in 2013 with 2 different clubs, #2 prospect behind Castellanos in Tigers org, said to have a Maglio Ordonez floor and a Miguel Cabrera ceiling.... and he acquitted himself well in 250 PAs in 2013. Gotta be a leading ROY candidate, if he still qualifes.

[PseudoSABR]

How does having more 5th starters in AAA and good players in AA impact this year at all? If we're talking 2015, I'm in the Twins camp by a mile.

 

For 2014 the White Sox have plenty of reasons their awful offense wcould improve with Dunn, Eaton, Abreu, PHegley, Davidson, and Viceido all candidates for significant improvement. I just think that should be fairly accounted for.

5th starters have value in that they aren't 10th and 11th starters. (And one of these 5th starters, Worley, was our number one last year, yipes). You're minimizing how bad the back end of the rotation has been and having better depth against failure and injury, will significantly improve the clubs chance for wins. Sano and Meyers in particular have a chance to meaningfully and significantly contribute this year.

 

For all the Sox players you mention that could improve, the Twins have a similar number of players who should as well. Your argument seems to simply grant for the Whitesox what you are unwilling to grant for the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

You're minimizing how bad the back end of the rotation has been and having better depth against failure and injury, will significantly improve the clubs chance for wins. Sano and Meyers in particular have a chance to meaningfully and significantly contribute this year.

 

Well, right, but we don't know when either of them will contribute. That's a huge wildcard that isn't fair to plan on for improvement. As for injuries, I find that to be a factor that negates the teams. The Sox have better offensive depth and we have better pitching depth. Those were both of the teams biggest weaknesses last year too.

 

Your argument seems to simply grant for the Whitesox what you are unwilling to grant for the Twins.

 

It's the exact opposite in fact. I've had to take that tact to show exactly what you just posted - that the teams have roughly a wash of players they are hoping bounce back. I posted as much earlier in the thread. It's Brock who is completely unwilling to grant that similar number of players between the teams.

 

My position is simple, given that the two teams do have a roughly similar number of hopes of improvement, I default to the fact that the White Sox underperformed their pyth. and the Twins significantly overperformed theirs. I think that luck/disparity balances out in all likelihood and the Sox are a bit better than we are next year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Sox staff doesn't scare me at all outside of Sale. They were a real bad defensive team last year and I don't see any evidence they addressed that problem and that will keep those lofty projections of the starting staff unrealized in my opinion.

 

The White Sox were horrible to watch last year much like the Twins. Just a team that needed to slug to cover their other shortcomings and they didn't and they packed it in.

 

The Twins defense is OK and that will help them keep games close enough to win a couple but they have a problem with the lack of speed on the current roster because if Willingham and Plouffe dry up this year like they did last year. The Twins don't have another way to get the job done. I don't want another year of station to station baseball but the roster looks like it might be.

 

I know we can't wait for Sano to show up and start hitting bombs but I think decent MLB play from Aaron Hicks would be the bigger boost in 2014. Both teams have to dig in like they didn't do in 2013.

 

We need SPEED... Not stolen bases per se... Just flat out Run of the mill speed.

 

Who's better between the White Sox and Twins? I don't know... But if they both don't start playing better more inspired baseball with pride... Who's taller... Ronnie James Dio or Udo Dirkschneider? Is a similar question.

 

I don't know which is scarier in the outfield the thought of Presley, Mastrioni, and the Hicks we saw last year, or Willingham, Arcia, Parmelee and Kubel.

 

It looks like TR is banking on Hicks putting on his big boy pants, and playing like he owns center field. I hope very much that the Hammer is every day DH. We can only afford one lumbering ox in the outfield, and it should be Arcia because he shows promise for the future.

 

If I get my way and Kubel stays in the minors, Hammer plays DH, and Hicks plays like a big leaguer, what do the corner outfield spots look like? Arcia in RF, and Wilkin Ramirez in LF might be ok.

[oldguy10]

Sconnie, surely you jest about Wilkin Ramirez being ok in LF, he will not even be okay in Rochester.

[Riverbrian]

I don't know which is scarier in the outfield the thought of Presley, Mastrioni, and the Hicks we saw last year, or Willingham, Arcia, Parmelee and Kubel.

 

It looks like TR is banking on Hicks putting on his big boy pants, and playing like he owns center field. I hope very much that the Hammer is every day DH. We can only afford one lumbering ox in the outfield, and it should be Arcia because he shows promise for the future.

 

If I get my way and Kubel stays in the minors, Hammer plays DH, and Hicks plays like a big leaguer, what do the corner outfield spots look like? Arcia in RF, and Wilkin Ramirez in LF might be ok.

 

I think Arcia is in one corner and Hammer/Kubel will be the other corner/DH... Parmelee will get the occasional start in a corner OF. Maybe Herrmann on occasion if he gets the backup C spot.

 

I believe Wilkin is no longer on the 40 man and that makes him a real long shot.

 

In my opinion... We won't get additional speed in the OF until Hicks and Buxton are side by side.