Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

[Brock Beauchamp]

Tell me, other than getting on base, what does Drew do bring to the table that makes him a must have @ 20-26X the price of Florimon + a 2nd round draft pick? He only hit 13HR's last year, so he doesn't bring much power to the table. His career high is 67RBI's so he's not driving in 100+ runs like some players. Speed? Nope, he only had 6 stolen bases to Florimon's 15. Drew also had a career high # of strike outs @ 124. Drew's performance in the playoffs has declined since 2007.

 

I see the value in Drew's OBP, but that's about where it ends. Florimon is younger, faster, more durable, better defensively, and MUCH cheaper. Not to mention Florimon has only played one full season in the MLB and hasn't even been given a chance to improve his hitting.

 

You're looking at the wrong numbers. Drew does everything better with the bat.

 

He hits for higher average. .264 to .219.

 

He walks more. .329 to .278.

 

He hits for more power. .435 to .323.

 

RBI, like always, are irrelevant. They are a corrollary stat that depends on BA, SLG, and team participation to get on base. Homeruns are largely park-dependent and don't tell if a player has gap power. They're particularly useless when examined devoid of other stats.

 

Stephen Drew has a 98 OPS+. Pedro Florimon has a 67 OPS+. That's all you need to know about them as hitters.

 

What really matters is that Stephen Drew, by every measurable statistic we have, is a significantly better overall baseball player than Pedro Florimon. You may argue that he's not better enough. I don't agree (and the statistics show that he's worth between 1-3 more wins than Florimon) but the two shouldn't even be in the same conversation. Admitting that Florimon is good enough is one thing... but suggesting that he's even remotely comparable to Stephen Drew is absurd. One is a quality MLB player and has been for quite some time. The other is a 27 year old journeyman whose numbers project as a spot starter at best, a waiver wire pickup at worst.

 

And you continue to suggest that Florimon will improve with the bat. Why do you believe this? He is 27 years old and hasn't OPSed over .750 in a full season since rookie ball in 2006. While it's nice to wish for player improvement, it's certainly no way to run a baseball team and Pedro Florimon has not given any indication that he will ever hit baseballs at an acceptable clip in MLB. His entire track records suggests that this is who he is as a player.

[Reider]

Particularly when that additional cost comes in at $5-6m per win, which is the typical going rate for free agents.

 

The problem with Reider's cost benefit analysis is that Florimon has little room to improve. That's not opinion, that's just sound analysis of players of his type, history, and age. He's probably close to as good as he'll ever get. Hell, there's just as good a chance that he will regress in 2014 as there is that he will improve.

Florimon is already arguably a top 5 SS and has the tools to be the #2 SS defensively next year. The Twins aren't in "win now" mode as most of their great prospects (Hicks, Buxton, Sano, Meyer etc..) are still developing in the minors. So what's the big deal with giving Florimon another year to work on his hitting, while he does his thing defensively? I'd be more in favor of signing Drew if the situation was different.

 

The reason few want to pick up a centerfielder or a third baseman is because the Twins have legitimate "cost benefit" players in the organization at those positions. As soon as 2014, Miguel Sano could be a 3+ win player at the league minimum. Aaron Hicks is just as, if not more, likely to post a 2+ win season than Florimon for the league minimum. But in 2015 and beyond, Hicks has a ceiling of 3+ wins annually while Buxton has a ceiling of... well, the moon. It makes no sense to pick up players at those positions, and that's not even mentioning that no free agent in their right mind is going to want to sign with the Twins, knowing that Hicks/Buxton/Sano are champing at the bit to take away their position at a moment's notice. You could make the argument that Pinto is another cost benefit player, as he posted some impressive MiLB numbers and had a strong September (though I personally put no stock in that).

Yep, guys like Buxton, Hicks, Sano and Meyer could be very very solid players in the future. In fact, Arcia and Pinto could be as well. The Twins future has the potential to look very bright.

 

That leaves one position on the diamond where the Twins have no players in the minors and a bad player on the MLB roster that is unlikely to improve in a meaningful way. That position is shortstop.

 

This isn't about "winning now", though that could be a nice side effect. This is about replacing bad MLB players who have little or no chance of meaningful improvement at the position. Sure, Florimon might clean up a few of his defensive errors... But he's still going to be an awful hitter, which means he will always be a pretty bad baseball player. He would have to be Ozzie Smith defensively to compensate for his lack of a bat (though it should be noted that even Smith was a better hitter than Florimon by a pretty healthy margin).

How do we know if Florimon is going to improve or not if we don't give him an opportunity? An opportunity when the Twins are in the basement is a lot easier than when all the young guys are up and they are competing for a Championship. Drew is not our future. At best he would be our "right now." I don't think there's anything wrong with giving Florimon more time to work on his hitting, while the Twins continue looking for their future @ SS.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How do we know if Florimon is going to improve or not if we don't give him an opportunity?

 

3506 plate appearances of sub-par hitting, for starters.

[JP3700]

Fair enough. I'm defining reliability here as "this is our shortstop, day in, day out, for the foreseeable future." No platoons, no mid-season tryouts for other guys.

 

Since I've been emphasizing middle infield stability, I decided to look up some recent SS/2B combos. I made this chart for JP3700 not to prove a specific point but just to get an idea of the Twins recent middle infield situation. I think a stable middle infield is valuable in intangible ways. Dozier and Florimon are proving to be above average and I'd really like to see the Twins continue to address other needs first.

 

Team leaders, Games started, SS/2B, by year:

[TABLE]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

Twins

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

AL Champ

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2000

[/TD]

Guzman/Canizaro148/85

Jeter/Knoblauch148/82

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2001

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas115/148

Jeter/Soriano150/156

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2002

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas143/91

Eckstein/Kennedy146/123

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2003

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas137/131

Jeter/Soriano118/154

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2004

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas143/95

Bellhorn/O.Cabrera118/57

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2005

[/TD]

Castro/Punto66/63

Uribe/Iguchi143/129

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2006

[/TD]

Bartlett/Castillo99/142

Guillen/Polanco144/107

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2007

[/TD]

Bartlett/Castillo135/85

Lugo/Pedroia139/132

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2008

[/TD]

Punto/Casilla60/94

Bartlett/Iwamura122/151

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2009

[/TD]

O.Cabrera/Casilla57/64

Jeter/Cano147/158

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2010

[/TD]

Hardy/Hudson95/123

Andrus/Kinsler144/102

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2011

[/TD]

Nishioka/Casilla59/53

Andrus/Kinsler142/144

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2012

[/TD]

Dozier/Casilla81/83

Peralta/Infante145/59

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2013

[/TD]

Florimon/Dozier127/141

Drew/Pedroia122/159

[/TABLE]

 

If that's how you define reliability, then Drew better fits your definition.

 

I appreciate the chart, but I'm not following the stability thing. Several of those guys were acquired through trade and free agency (including Drew). Drew/Dozier sounds a lot better for 2014-2016 than Florimon/Dozier?

 

All I really noticed in that chart is that all the shortstops on the championship teams had the ability to hit. Although I believe Lugo had a down year that year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, I'll come out and admit it. I only want the Twins to sign Drew so they can call their middle infield a cool nickname:

 

GIDDDP

The Killer Ds

Drezier

The Venture Bros.

 

Okay, so the last one doesn't make any sense. Screw you guys.

[JP3700]

But all things considered, just as good a bridge as Florimon would.

 

I think that is the crux of our argument. I think some of us have seen too many Tolberts and Nishiokas pass through in recent memory and are ready for a decent fielding, stable middle infield, which we might very well have in Florimon and Dozier.

 

The problem with Tolbert and Nishioka is that they were bad baseball players. Florimon is much closer to a bad baseball player than Drew.

 

Not that I'm hard opposed to Drew, but I'd rather see the Twins slot Florimon ninth and worry about getting Arcia and Hicks straightened out, than to suddenly just turn to free agency for every need.

 

Two things.

 

1. Slotting Drew in the lineup takes quite a bit of pressure off of Arcia and Hicks to produce.

2. While I agree that free agency isn't always the best avenue to use, it should be used when it is the best option. In this case it is. Signing Drew is filling one gaping need through free agency, similar to pitching.

[Reider]

Which we've been saying for, what, three off-seasons now? That was the book on him when he was picked up off waivers. He has improved on that. Some.

What do you expect from him? He is already arguably a top 5 SS, so even if he doesn't improve much, he's still very solid defensively. But he could still improve a bit more. #2 is not out of the question. #1 is not likely unless Simmons gets injured and can't play.

[Mike Sixel]

Why is FA inherently worse than drafting a player? Other than cost, but since they have more than $30MM available right now, why is that even an issue to you?

[Doomtints]

This is the last I'll weigh in on this one:

 

- Florimon does not really seem to be the 'SS of the future' -- so I completely understand looking at Drew.

- Florimon's defense may have been overstated last year. But to the same token, his hitting may have been understated by an equal measure.

- Drew would have been an exciting signing three years ago, but as it stands now a team would be lucky to get 1-1.5 good years from his bat. I would wager on more like around half a year, but I am on the more skeptical edge of the spectrum when it comes to Drew due to his recent injuries and overall decline.

- We know that the Twins like to be patient with hitters, so Florimon is likely to get more time unless he really annoys somebody.

- The Twins also have Escobar available, who is probably somewhere between Drew and Florimon in ability. Where exactly? No idea.

- Danny Santana should be around should they both fail soon enough (end of 2014 or start of 2015).

 

(Oh, and Jason Bartlett.)

[jokin]

This is the last I'll weigh in on this one:

 

- Florimon does not really seem to be the 'SS of the future' -- so I completely understand looking at Drew.

- Florimon's defense may have been overstated last year. But to the same token, his hitting may have been understated by an equal measure.

- Drew would have been an exciting signing three years ago, but as it stands now a team would be lucky to get 1-1.5 good years from his bat. I would wager on more like around half a year, but I am on the more skeptical edge of the spectrum when it comes to Drew due to his recent injuries and overall decline.

- We know that the Twins like to be patient with hitters, so Florimon is likely to get more time unless he really annoys somebody.

- The Twins also have Escobar available, who is probably somewhere between Drew and Florimon in ability. Where exactly? No idea.

- Danny Santana should be around should they both fail soon enough (end of 2014 or start of 2015).

 

(Oh, and Jason Bartlett.)

 

From Phill Miller today, this disconcerting quote:

 

Among the most notable are former Twins Jason Bartlett, who agreed to a minor-league contract in November, and Jason Kubel, who signed a minor-league deal in December. Those two are projected to make the Twins' 25-man roster, and perhaps earn starting roles.

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/239450721.html

[Doomtints]

From Phill Miller today, this disconcerting quote:

 

Among the most notable are former Twins Jason Bartlett, who agreed to a minor-league contract in November, and Jason Kubel, who signed a minor-league deal in December. Those two are projected to make the Twins' 25-man roster, and perhaps earn starting roles.

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/239450721.html

 

Interesting. The official word seems to be that Bartlett is a long shot, but maybe this message is meant to be motivation.

 

"Good night, Jason. Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely cut you in the morning."

 

- Dread Pirate Ryan

 

This is similar to how they treated Joe Nathan in spring training before giving him the closer's job.

[Thrylos]

From Phill Miller today, this disconcerting quote:

 

Among the most notable are former Twins Jason Bartlett, who agreed to a minor-league contract in November, and Jason Kubel, who signed a minor-league deal in December. Those two are projected to make the Twins' 25-man roster, and perhaps earn starting roles.

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/239450721.html

 

Kubel will likely be the opening day DH. I will take what Miller said re: Bartlett with a huge grain of salt; it's his own assumption. Ryan was quoted to say something like 'nobody has seen Bartlett play for a year and a half and we'll see what he can do'. BTW, in the same piece he also lists Aaron Thompson as a "right hand reliever" (which is wrong & disappointing).

[oldguy10]

As I have posted previously way too much discussion time is being spent on the shortstop subject, let's talk about REAL players already on the roster and/or others who may be acquired this year and in the years to come. Present roster - Mauer, Dozier, Arcia and that is about it, other players to be acquired - who knows at this point? And in fact Bartlett may be a decent stopgap until a really good kid surfaces, in fact he may be as decent as Hardy was minus the homeruns.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If that's how you define reliability, then Drew better fits your definition.

 

I appreciate the chart, but I'm not following the stability thing. Several of those guys were acquired through trade and free agency (including Drew). Drew/Dozier sounds a lot better for 2014-2016 than Florimon/Dozier?

 

All I really noticed in that chart is that all the shortstops on the championship teams had the ability to hit. Although I believe Lugo had a down year that year.

 

Your initial comparisons showed me that a Drew signing would be a considerable offensive upgrade. I value Florimon's defense more than most here and am maybe biased towards that. And I think we just disagree on whether Drew is capable of staying on the field in years two and three of a contract. If he gets hurt, it's a circus again with shuffling the roster, shuffling the lineup. But Hardy has stayed on the field in Baltimore, which I wouldn't have predicted, so I will grant you that possibility.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Your initial comparisons showed me that a Drew signing would be a considerable offensive upgrade. I value Florimon's defense more than most here and am maybe biased towards that. And I think we just disagree on whether Drew is capable of staying on the field in years two and three of a contract. If he gets hurt, it's a circus again with shuffling the roster, shuffling the lineup. But Hardy has stayed on the field in Baltimore, which I wouldn't have predicted, so I will grant you that possibility.

 

Eh, injury plagued players are always injured until they aren't. Healthy players take the field every day until they don't.

 

Really, I think too many people throw around terms like "everyday" and "injury plagued" far too freely. There simply isn't a good predictor for health. Carl Pavano is a perfect example of such a player. He was a workhorse innings-eater until he wasn't. Then he was injury plagued until he wasn't. Then he was a workhorse innings-eater again until he wasn't. Then he got old and tried to shovel some snow.

 

A famous exception is if you're Rich Harden. Then your arm might fall off doing the dishes one day. But Rich Harden can't be used as an example of anything, not since he killed that gypsy's daughter and had an unbreakable curse placed on him using goat's blood baked into a pie.

[Guest USAFChief]

I think there's a difference in having a chronic problem--Jim Thome's back--and having an injury.

 

Drew's broken ankle was serious, and likely affected him for a year or more, but it's probably not any more likely to be broken again than any other player's ankle.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think there's a difference in having a chronic problem--Jim Thome's back--and having an injury.

 

Drew's broken ankle was serious, and likely affected him for a year or more, but it's probably not any more likely to be broken again than any other player's ankle.

 

Yep. Joe Crede is another guy who had a chronic issue, which is very different than a "I slipped in the tub and broke my face. Hope it doesn't happen again." type of injury.

[jokin]

I think there's a difference in having a chronic problem--Jim Thome's back--and having an injury.

 

Drew's broken ankle was serious, and likely affected him for a year or more, but it's probably not any more likely to be broken again than any other player's ankle.

 

Drew's injury was Joe Theismann-like horrific. Watch the video to the very end if you can stomach viewing a foot pointing the wrong direction from the body:

 

http://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb/video-diamondbacks-shortstop-stephen-drew-suffers-gruesome-freak-injury/

 

He fractured the fibula, which required surgery to install a series of plates, plus, even more importantly he tore numerous ligaments, making this much more than just a broken ankle injury.

[jay]

holding open spots on your major league roster for players in the low minors is a terrible way to run an organization

 

This is the best argument for signing Drew, IMO. We all know Florimon isn't anything special and there isn't anything ready to be harvested from the farm. Even just the opportunity to have an above-average shortstop on the roster probably isn't likely otherwise for the next few years unless it is via trade or FA next year. I'm hoping for a guy like Trea Turner, but Drew still makes sense timeline-wise in that scenario.

 

I see it boiling down to 2 options:

- Give Florimon this year to see if he can show anything more with the bat than he did last year. If not, you assess your 2014 draft and minor league depth while most likely signing a stopgap SS from next year's decent FA crop at the position.

- Sign Drew this year to something like a 2 year deal with a team option and continue to develop the pipeline. I don't see any prospects who would be harmed by 2 more years of development time.

 

Given the Twins payroll flexibility, I'm okay with either but the first option means I'd want them to help the offense in some other way this year.

[stringer bell]

Still not on the Drew bandwagon. The Bartlett note has gotten me thinking to the point that perhaps both Bartlett and Escobar go north as utility infielders. IIRC, Bartlett had pretty good numbers against left handers and after last year's struggles RH for Florimon, he could get at-bats against LH starting pitching. Bartlett being a veteran could also (perhaps) pinch-hit against a tough lefty late in a game and they still would have Escobar. Bringing two utility infielders north would be it for both Colabello or Parmelee, unless Kubel is dreadful.

[Guest USAFChief]

Two light hitting futility infielders, an extra catcher, and a minimum of 12 pitchers on the 25 man roster...sounds like runs!

[TheLeviathan]

Two light hitting futility infielders, an extra catcher, and a minimum of 12 pitchers on the 25 man roster...sounds like runs!

 

Who are you fooling with only 12?

[Guest USAFChief]

Who are you fooling with only 12?

 

Myself?

 

I might be light on the number of catchers too, come to think of it.

[twinsfan34]

With the pending retirement of Derek Jeter after the 2014 season the Yankees appear to be happy with the possibilty of Brendan Ryan being their backup plan for the Yankee's captain in 2014 as well as the STARTER in 2015, despite Stephen Drew being available. Brendan Ryan being a far inferior hitter to Pedro Florimon and by SABR standards, an inferior fielder.

 

ESPN - Source: Yanks still not interested in Drew

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Jeter's retirement is an interesting little wrinkle, no doubt. That the Twins might find themselves in the FA shortstop market the same year as the Yankees.

 

I'm curious to know if this changes any minds on Drew, one way or another. I'd still say no thank you to Drew, roll with Florimon for '14, re-assess in offseason.