Baseball Prospectus Goes Twins Crazy!

[cmathewson]

Boy, reading that Buxton profile - I need to take a deep breath. He is really exciting. Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.

 

He has Ricky's legs, Torii's outfield tools, and Eric Davis's hitting tools. Pretty exciting.

[John Bonnes]

Parks also just said that if you took away the Twins numbers 1-10 players and just listed 11 through 20 as numbers 1 through 10, it would still be better than some other minor league organizations, including the Angels, Tigers and Athletics.

[raindog]

For those who cannot read the article, start getting excited about Kohl Stewart. They describe him as both polished and "a no 1 type that could move quickly through a developmental system." 4 potential plus pitches, with the fastball and slider as potential "plus-plus."

They write that he could end up being the top pitcher in the minor-league class...by the end of next season. Nice.

 

Now this makes me excited.

[Ncgo4]

Let me see if I have this correct. In Buxton we have potentially got Willie Mays in center. In Sano we may have Eddie Matthews at third but with more HR's. With Stewart we just may have Nolan Ryan starting. I'd say that's a good start to a sound ML team. This was tongue in cheek...but I'm still giggling.

[Thrylos]

Boy, reading that Buxton profile - I need to take a deep breath. He is really exciting. Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.

 

Yeah. Rickey is a good comparison. But better defense and better concentration than Rickey. The thing is that in the older days they use to run more and get kids up in the majors young, so Rickey's records will stand.

[kab21]

If anything, relievers need better command than starters because they have less margin of error when they come in. It's the primary reason Deduno never made it as a reliever but he does OK as a starter.

 

This isn't really accurate. RP'ers eliminate their worst pitch from their arsenal and just concentrate on 2 pitches. They also only see hitters once in a game and only a couple times per season. So a pitcher with control problems can seemingly be fixed with a move to the bullpen.

[dgwills]

Dan likes this post very much. Dan can't wait to see these prospects with the Twins. Dan thinks we will be seeing the other end of the standings soon. Dan also thinks Rickey Henderson is hilarious.

[biggentleben]

[video=youtube;ozGNfNsnX6g]

[AussieTwin]

For those who cannot read the story, listen to the podcast. I'm only 8 minutes into it and needed to stop to take a cold shower. "[The Twins minor league system] has the depth of the Astros' system and the impact of the Cubs' system."

 

Lol took the words right out of my mouth, I was more than confident that Parks did that whole evaluation with a semi. He was frothing at the mouth over the system. I think there's only 2 options for us as twins fans though and we should split them up evenly

1. PRAY that they all stay reasonably healthy and half develop to be as expected

2. Provide personal bodyguard and security for them to enhance step 1

 

ready? BREAK

[Seth Stohs]

Boy, reading that Buxton profile - I need to take a deep breath. He is really exciting. Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.

 

Just opposite end of the spectrum on personality/humility!! But, I think that's a fair comp.

[Seth Stohs]

Parks also just said that if you took away the Twins numbers 1-10 players and just listed 11 through 20 as numbers 1 through 10, it would still be better than some other minor league organizations, including the Angels, Tigers and Athletics.

 

That is true, but what I'm so impressed with is the depth... 11-20 would be a decent Top 10 compared to some organizations, but what I like is that there are a lot of guys that I'd rank in the 21-60 range that could fill a big league role, out of the bullpen, or as a 4th of 5th OF, or a utility infielder. Also, some of those younger players below 21 could move up quickly in another year. Like they said, it's an organization with lots of high ceiling players and plenty of depth.

[Seth Stohs]

Let me see if I have this correct. In Buxton we have potentially got Willie Mays in center. In Sano we may have Eddie Matthews at third but with more HR's. With Stewart we just may have Nolan Ryan starting. I'd say that's a good start to a sound ML team. This was tongue in cheek...but I'm still giggling.

 

I know you're joking, but frankly... those are the types of names brought up with these guys. I heard a lot of Willie Mays comps in Cedar Rapids, from guys that likely were old enough to remember a 19 year old Mays.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I was listening to this... Interesting comment that Parks made that is debated here often is that he doesn't believe that they try to make players into an "organizational mold". He says they develop guys to be the best guy that this type of player can grow into... Interesting.

[Seth Stohs]

For those who cannot read the article, start getting excited about Kohl Stewart. They describe him as both polished and "a no 1 type that could move quickly through a developmental system." 4 potential plus pitches, with the fastball and slider as potential "plus-plus."

They write that he could end up being the top pitcher in the minor-league class...by the end of next season. Nice.

 

FB is ++

SL is ++

CU is above average

CB is above average

 

Also, I participated in the press conference introducing Stewart to the Twin Cities media. He was also working on a sinker to go with it. He's got a ton of confidence, which I think bodes well. And, most exciting for me, he'll be able to focus solely on baseball now. My only concern with him is his shoulder (and because he's a pitcher, his elbow).

[Seth Stohs]

I also feel the need to say this... I wouldn't give up on Kepler at all... he's going to have to figure out how to hit lefties better. And no, he's not going to be a centerfielder (Though, with Buxton and Hicks ahead of him, does it matter?), but he can be a left fielder or a first baseman. He's got the ability to get on base, and he does have some very good power. He hit 9 HR in a little less than half of a season in Cedar Rapids. There's no reason to believe that he can't eventually be a 25 HR a year guy, maybe more.

[Thrylos]

I also feel the need to say this... I wouldn't give up on Kepler at all... he's going to have to figure out how to hit lefties better. And no, he's not going to be a centerfielder (Though, with Buxton and Hicks ahead of him, does it matter?), but he can be a left fielder or a first baseman. He's got the ability to get on base, and he does have some very good power. He hit 9 HR in a little less than half of a season in Cedar Rapids. There's no reason to believe that he can't eventually be a 25 HR a year guy, maybe more.

 

Here is the thing with Kepler:

 

-First base for the Twins is spoken for until 2019.

-Walker, Harrison, DJ Hicks and Vargas at this point seem to have better bats for the DH/1B/OF types. And they have more power than Kepler. And probably better hit tool.

 

 

So I really think that Kepler is a sell high type of guy...

[clutterheart]

That is true, but what I'm so impressed with is the depth... 11-20 would be a decent Top 10 compared to some organizations, but what I like is that there are a lot of guys that I'd rank in the 21-60 range that could fill a big league role, out of the bullpen, or as a 4th of 5th OF, or a utility infielder. Also, some of those younger players below 21 could move up quickly in another year. Like they said, it's an organization with lots of high ceiling players and plenty of depth.

 

I wouldn't say depth, I would say question marks. Twins could go from a Top Tier system to a mid-tier system next year if some of the CR all-stars don't do well. The current top 4 or 5 guys would be the top prospects in any team's system. This is a given and these guys are what makes this system a top tier system. All 4 of those guys have the ability to contribute next year and make this team into a contender comes 2015.

 

But after that there is a huge drop off to guys who were in Cedar Rapids/Rookie Leagues last year. There is no other pitcher who ended the year at Fort Myers or above last year who I have any reasonable hope to be an 1 - 4 type pitcher. (Maybe May, but he looks to be bullpen arm to me) There is lots of interesting pitchers below Fort Myers but we can only reasonably expect 1 or 2 if we are lucky to actually make the Twins due to injury/talent and other TINSTAAPP issues

The current system is weak on OF prospects with power - Outside of Arcia who is there who could help the team in 2014 or even 2015? – Don’t say Walker because he has HUGE contact/SO issues that he hast to fix and he hasn’t been able to fix even though he played college, he needs to prove it against pitchers who can throw with movement. Now that Mauer moves to 1B, this removes a potential problem at this position as there isn't anyone who looks to be a good hitting 1B until we reach Vargas.

I do think Polanco will become the best prospect in the system, and hopefully he can end the year at AA next year – that would be huge!. And I liked a lot of players at CR/E-Town/GCL last year. But I think after the Buxton, Meyer, Sano, Rosario wave graduate, the system could drop to Middle of the pack because of the weakness in the upper levels – Unless of course everything goes right next year with Vargas, Walker, Polanco, Stewart, Thorpe, Rosario, Landa & Felix.

[Thrylos]

Unless of course everything goes right next year with Vargas, Walker, Polanco, Stewart, Thorpe, Rosario, Landa & Felix.

 

That's a name that nor really mentioned among the Twins top prospects, but is a guy who is about to surprise a lot of people next season in the Midwest league...

[howieramone1406390264]

 

But I think after the Buxton, Meyer, Sano, Rosario wave graduate, the system could drop to Middle of the pack because of the weakness in the upper levels – Unless of course everything goes right next year with Vargas, Walker, Polanco, Stewart, Thorpe, Rosario, Landa & Felix.

 

 

The goal never was to have the top farm system indefinitely. Of the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, only Buxton is in the first wave.

[gunnarthor]

Not going to argue with you Clutterheart but I will say that Parks noted that the Twins had depth throughout the org - not just in the low minors or rookie ball.

 

Some of these guys will fail but others will step up. No one saw Thorpe exploding this year and he's already at the point where prospect guys are weighing in on him, some pretty heavily. Sure, he has a long way to go.

 

Now, obviously, if the Twins graduate Buxton, Meyer, Sano and Rosario this year (with fellow top 100 guys Gibson, Arcia and Hicks graduated this year) the team rankings will fall. I'm ok with that. 7 top 100 guys reaching the majors in two years is great. That's the type of fall you want.

 

After that, you have one potential ace in Stewart, a #5 pick in the next draft and maybe one or two players break out (say 2 of Thorpe, Berrios, Polanco and Harrison) and the team could conceivably still have 4 top 100 guys for the 2015 season. (Berrios and Thorpe could be top 100 guys in some lists this year). That's a strong system and still better than middle of the pack.

[gunnarthor]

That's a name that nor really mentioned among the Twins top prospects, but is a guy who is about to surprise a lot of people next season in the Midwest league...

 

All right, I'll bite. Who is this Landa guy? B-R lists him as a 6'0" righty we apparently signed out of Venezuela. His peripherals don't look great (although at rookie ball it doesn't really matter)

[kab21]

I do think Polanco will become the best prospect in the system, and hopefully he can end the year at AA next year – that would be huge!. And I liked a lot of players at CR/E-Town/GCL last year. But I think after the Buxton, Meyer, Sano, Rosario wave graduate, the system could drop to Middle of the pack because of the weakness in the upper levels – Unless of course everything goes right next year with Vargas, Walker, Polanco, Stewart, Thorpe, Rosario, Landa & Felix.

 

Good grief. I think your argument could be made about any system that will graduate two top 10 prospects and two top 50 prospects right after graduating 3 top 50 prospects (Hicks/Arcia/Gibson).

 

The great thing is that there is still some nice talent in the system despite up to 7 young players being up with the Twins for good by opening day 2015.

 

I completely disagree with thrylos's analysis of Kepler. Vargas (I like) and Hicks (I don't) are completely limited to DH and Walker has big plate discipline issues. Harrison and kepler are kind of comparable but I wouldn't say that Harrison is better (unless he sticks at 3B). Kepler's poor season was almost entirely BAPIP driven. He showed great plate discipline and pretty good power. These are things that I look at in prospects and Kepler has them.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Pretty awesome and crazy fellas. The craziest thing about all of this, is that we get to add another top 5 draft pick to this group. Also if we keep our 2nd rounder, that should be of high quality as well. Draft well this year and we will be set up for the next 5-10 years.

 

I hope as many prospects pan out as possible.

[B Richard]

Good grief. I think your argument could be made about any system that will graduate two top 10 prospects and two top 50 prospects right after graduating 3 top 50 prospects (Hicks/Arcia/Gibson).

 

The great thing is that there is still some nice talent in the system despite up to 7 young players being up with the Twins for good by opening day 2015.

 

I completely disagree with thrylos's analysis of Kepler. Vargas (I like) and Hicks (I don't) are completely limited to DH and Walker has big plate discipline issues. Harrison and kepler are kind of comparable but I wouldn't say that Harrison is better (unless he sticks at 3B). Kepler's poor season was almost entirely BAPIP driven. He showed great plate discipline and pretty good power. These are things that I look at in prospects and Kepler has them.

 

Like x100. Kab, during my time on this site you have provided some of the more insightful and accurate thoughts I've come across. I'm sure I'm not the only one who appreciates it

[clutterheart]

Good grief. I think your argument could be made about any system that will graduate two top 10 prospects and two top 50 prospects right after graduating 3 top 50 prospects (Hicks/Arcia/Gibson).

 

The great thing is that there is still some nice talent in the system despite up to 7 young players being up with the Twins for good by opening day 2015.

 

I completely disagree with thrylos's analysis of Kepler. Vargas (I like) and Hicks (I don't) are completely limited to DH and Walker has big plate discipline issues. Harrison and kepler are kind of comparable but I wouldn't say that Harrison is better (unless he sticks at 3B). Kepler's poor season was almost entirely BAPIP driven. He showed great plate discipline and pretty good power. These are things that I look at in prospects and Kepler has them.

 

Agree with you on Kepler. One of the few good things about his AFL performance was his ability to take walks despite seeing a quality of pitcher he has never seen before. This is a positive indicator despite his otherwise poor AFL stats. His baseball experience is still pretty low so I expect this portion of his game to improve.

 

Regarding the natural cycle, my point is simply I don't think of what the system has as "depth." I think its top heavy with some super prospects on the verge followed by a bunch of "maybes" in the low minors. I think the team needs to hit on some position players next year in the draft. And of course if they could sign another Sano type player as an international FA, I would take that too.

[kab21]

Regarding the natural cycle, my point is simply I don't think of what the system has as "depth." I think its top heavy with some super prospects on the verge followed by a bunch of "maybes" in the low minors. I think the team needs to hit on some position players next year in the draft. And of course if they could sign another Sano type player as an international FA, I would take that too.

 

For years people have complained about the system being too far away and now top heavy is an issue?

 

And this is still how systems work. If there were can't miss guys in the minors combined with Sano, buxton, Meyer and Rosario then this would be one of the most ridiculous systems ever. And I would still consider a bottom portion consisting of Stewart, pick #5, Thorpe, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Harrison and Gonsalves (among others) to be really good.

[Seth Stohs]

All right, I'll bite. Who is this Landa guy? B-R lists him as a 6'0" righty we apparently signed out of Venezuela. His peripherals don't look great (although at rookie ball it doesn't really matter)

 

He's one of The Big Three that we talked about at E-Town last year and GCL in 2012. He's not quite on the level of Jorge Felix, but he's ahead Rosario. Wiry, hard thrower. Long way to go, but he's got a chance.

[Seth Stohs]

Like I said above, by depth, I mean guys that can make the big leagues as role players... That's why we differentiate those top prospects, but when you've got guys in the 30s and 40s and 50s that you/I think have a chance to be bench or bullpen guys, that's depth.

 

As has been pointed out, if you've got 7 top 50 guys coming up and graduating within two years and that core goes with Mauer and some others, you're still going to need the Caleb Thielbars and Michael Tonkins and Eduardo Escobars to fill roles. When the Twins were successful, they usually had no more than one or two prospects coming up each year and contributing. Hopefully the team gets back to that soon.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wouldn't say depth, I would say question marks. Twins could go from a Top Tier system to a mid-tier system next year if some of the CR all-stars don't do well. The current top 4 or 5 guys would be the top prospects in any team's system. This is a given and these guys are what makes this system a top tier system. All 4 of those guys have the ability to contribute next year and make this team into a contender comes 2015.

 

So after a team graduates seven top 100 prospects in two seasons, they'll be middle of the pack?

 

I'll take that all day.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here is the thing with Kepler:

 

-First base for the Twins is spoken for until 2019.

-Walker, Harrison, DJ Hicks and Vargas at this point seem to have better bats for the DH/1B/OF types. And they have more power than Kepler. And probably better hit tool.

 

So I really think that Kepler is a sell high type of guy...

 

Agreed but the Twins can't sell high on Kepler this offseason. He'll need to put together a strong 2014 before his value rises again... 2013 wasn't horrible but it wasn't very good, either.