Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Josh Johnson

[Oxtung]

I'm embarrassed to say that I don't know the answer to this question: Do the +/- stats incorporate Innings Pitched (or, in the case of OPS+, Plate Appearances) into their value? My assumption has always been that they do not. If that's the case, then that's pretty big factor in Johnson's potential value that's being left out.

 

No they do not. They only take into account how well a player pitched, not how often.

 

To me though, injury history and IP mean very little with the exception of a player coming off a significant injury, like TJ surgery. If there is a specific reason why a pitcher may not be ready or may not be able to pitch, like Shaun Marcum in 2014, then it is important but I don't believe in "injury prone" as a label. Players are only "healthy" until they aren't and anybody can blow their elbow out, "injury prone" or not. I understand that there are different opinions on this and I am probably in the minority.

[jorgenswest]

I would think Johnson will be seeking a one year deal (no team option) as long as he believes his ace level of performance. In this case money will not be the most important factor. He can give up a few million this year as long as he can find a situation where he will have a big year. If he does that few million will be more than made up in his next contract.

 

He will get one year offers. Will it be the Twins? Will he see the Twins as the best place to build his value for 2015?

[The Wise One]

No they do not. They only take into account how well a player pitched, not how often.

 

To me though, injury history and IP mean very little with the exception of a player coming off a significant injury, like TJ surgery. If there is a specific reason why a pitcher may not be ready or may not be able to pitch, like Shaun Marcum in 2014, then it is important but I don't believe in "injury prone" as a label. Players are only "healthy" until they aren't and anybody can blow their elbow out, "injury prone" or not. I understand that there are different opinions on this and I am probably in the minority.

 

When over a 4 year period a player misses over a season's worth of games there should be concern. If you want to argue over who is the better player then injuries do not factor in. If you want to argue who will help a team out more the injuries matter. For 2013 Marcum's injury was not his elbow but his shoulder. So when you have to ask is this guy going to be healthy, which you have to do for Johnson, IP matters.

[The Wise One]

Also when your metric has predictive value and you call it as more accurate, what are you considering accuracy? If you say something like it means he pitched better or worse than his era and should do better then that is not much of a prediction.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Average Jimenez' and Jonhson's FIPs and see who has the best. I'd argue that Johnson's 2013 FIP was a fluke more than Jimenez' 2012 FIP (compare their xFIPs and BABIPs for those 2 seasons.)

 

And in 2013 Johnson played in AL East while Jimenez in AL Central that had 2 of the worst teams in baseball. Big difference.

 

First off, I'm not sure how you can say Johnson's was more of a fluke than Jimenez's. Jimenez has already proven 2012 was a fluke with 2013 and Johnson is still a question mark.

 

I'm not sure it's such a big difference. I can argue that since Jimenez has pitched more innings than Johnson over the past few seasons, that he's had a more difficult challenge than pitching to the East. I'll take a 4.00 FIP (Jimenez average) with 547 IPs* over a 3.54 FIP (Johnson average) with 333IP.

 

*Jimenez has 547IP in the past 3 seasons and hasn't missed any significant time in his career. Johnson has 333IP in the past 3 years.

[Oxtung]

When over a 4 year period a player misses over a season's worth of games there should be concern. If you want to argue over who is the better player then injuries do not factor in. If you want to argue who will help a team out more the injuries matter. For 2013 Marcum's injury was not his elbow but his shoulder. So when you have to ask is this guy going to be healthy, which you have to do for Johnson, IP matters.

 

Three points. First, IMO injuries only matter if they lead to a pre-existing condition that will prevent a player from pitching or pitching effectively. Johnson's injuries have been unconnected as far as I can tell. Now I'm not a doctor, maybe there is an underlying condition that has caused his problems in which case I would certainly have to reconsider my analysis.

 

Second, I'd rather have, because I think it helps the team more, 20 starts by Johnson and 10 starts by [insert AAAA pitcher here] than 30 starts by [insert #3-#5 starter here].

 

Third, many players have been the definition of durable. Until they weren't. No pitcher is immune to injuries. Hello, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, et. al.

 

Also when your metric has predictive value and you call it as more accurate, what are you considering accuracy? If you say something like it means he pitched better or worse than his era and should do better then that is not much of a prediction.

 

SIERA is currently considered to be the best ERA Estimator and Projection system available (with the exception of Steamer since I have not seen a direct comparison of the two and don't know how Steamer approaches it's projections). In Mathematical terms it scored the best in both Correlation and Root Mean Square Error in predicting future ERAs.

[The Wise One]

Three points. First, IMO injuries only matter if they lead to a pre-existing condition that will prevent a player from pitching or pitching effectively. Johnson's injuries have been unconnected as far as I can tell. Now I'm not a doctor, maybe there is an underlying condition that has caused his problems in which case I would certainly have to reconsider my analysis.

 

Second, I'd rather have, because I think it helps the team more, 20 starts by Johnson and 10 starts by [insert AAAA pitcher here] than 30 starts by [insert #3-#5 starter here].

 

Third, many players have been the definition of durable. Until they weren't. No pitcher is immune to injuries. Hello, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, et. al.

 

 

 

SIERA is currently considered to be the best ERA Estimator and Projection system available (with the exception of Steamer since I have not seen a direct comparison of the two and don't know how Steamer approaches it's projections). In Mathematical terms it scored the best in both Correlation and Root Mean Square Error in predicting future ERAs.

 

In terms of accuracy it correlates to what? 80% chance that the ERA for a pitcher with a SIERA of 3.75 will be somewhere between 3.25 and 4.25? It may be the most accurate, but again look at you table SIERA and the next year's ERA.

 

The conversation was Jimenez versus Johnson. Jimmenez is now a number 3-5 starter?

 

Fair enough on the comment about durability until they were not. Problem is that Johnson fits the latter category. Lohse had only one season of less than 20 starts when used as a regular starter

[Oxtung]

In terms of accuracy it correlates to what? 80% chance that the ERA for a pitcher with a SIERA of 3.75 will be somewhere between 3.25 and 4.25? It may be the most accurate, but again look at you table SIERA and the next year's ERA.

I'm not sure what your point is here. We use the tools we have available to us. Are any of the metrics perfect? No, but if a point is going to be made using a metric I think the best metrics should be used. In this case that is SIERA.

 

The conversation was Jimenez versus Johnson. Jimenez is now a number 3-5 starter?

He's very volatile and as such might have a few #2 type seasons and a few #4 type seasons, so in the end yes, I think he is a #3 starter. The Twins Daily crew seems to think so as well. Their 4 years for $64 million is right in line with Edwin Jackson's contract last season as well as Kyle Lohse's, after adjusting for the additional influx of revenue and Lohse's draft pick compensation and age.

 

Fair enough on the comment about durability until they were not. Problem is that Johnson fits the latter category.

 

Is there any reason to think that his back problems of 2009 are going to affect his 2014 pitching? Is the fact that he had TJ surgery in 2007 relevant to 2014? He had a bone spur removed in early October and it had a 5 week recovery period. Does that mean he won't be ready to go in 2014?

 

It's easy to say he's "injury prone" but that is lazy analysis. It's one thing if a guy has a reoccurring issue like Johan Santana, who has been out because of his shoulder for multiple seasons. That is obviously a huge red flag. Josh Johnson is a totally different case though. None of his injuries appear to be related. They are all seemingly random.

[The Wise One]

I'm not sure what your point is here. We use the tools we have available to us. Are any of the metrics perfect? No, but if a point is going to be made using a metric I think the best metrics should be used. In this case that is SIERA.

 

 

He's very volatile and as such might have a few #2 type seasons and a few #4 type seasons, so in the end yes, I think he is a #3 starter. The Twins Daily crew seems to think so as well. Their 4 years for $64 million is right in line with Edwin Jackson's contract last season as well as Kyle Lohse's, after adjusting for the additional influx of revenue and Lohse's draft pick compensation and age.

 

 

 

Is there any reason to think that his back problems of 2009 are going to affect his 2014 pitching? Is the fact that he had TJ surgery in 2007 relevant to 2014? He had a bone spur removed in early October and it had a 5 week recovery period. Does that mean he won't be ready to go in 2014?

 

It's easy to say he's "injury prone" but that is lazy analysis. It's one thing if a guy has a reoccurring issue like Johan Santana, who has been out because of his shoulder for multiple seasons. That is obviously a huge red flag. Josh Johnson is a totally different case though. None of his injuries appear to be related. They are all seemingly random.

 

You still can't answer how accurate SIERA is. It gives you a ballpark figure what an ERA might be. So to say it is the best metric. It really doesn't measure anything in terms of future success. It fails by definition of a metric. But use it anyway to say one pitcher was better than the other. BTW, one study showed that after 200 innings all the metrics were about the same.

 

Johnson. Chips in the elbow. 2 stints on the dl for triceps issues. One season lost due to shoulder inflammation, and one TJ. Only 2 seasons where he pitched more than 30 games. I never said he is injury prone. I bring up the statistic that he does not pitch for a whole season. You take it to mean what you want. Johnson has had 2 great years of pitching as has Jimenez . Jimenez has had 1 bad year and 3 above average years. A mid 3 WAR pitcher is a number 2 on most staffs. Not pitching at all gives you a number 6 starter.

An icentive based contract with it vesting for IP would be good. Benadino said his agent wants a multi year contract. He is out of luck that Moreno might not be a free spender on pitchers

[Oxtung]

You still can't answer how accurate SIERA is. It gives you a ballpark figure what an ERA might be. So to say it is the best metric. It really doesn't measure anything in terms of future success. It fails by definition of a metric. But use it anyway to say one pitcher was better than the other. BTW, one study showed that after 200 innings all the metrics were about the same.

Again, I'm not saying that SIERA is perfect, only that it is the best available. If we can't use any metrics because "it doesn't measure future success" (which is BS by the way) then how do you suggest we judge pitchers? Could you post a link to the aforementioned study? I'd love to read it.

 

Johnson. Chips in the elbow. 2 stints on the dl for triceps issues. One season lost due to shoulder inflammation, and one TJ. Only 2 seasons where he pitched more than 30 games. I never said he is injury prone. I bring up the statistic that he does not pitch for a whole season. You take it to mean what you want. Johnson has had 2 great years of pitching as has Jimenez . Jimenez has had 1 bad year and 3 above average years. A mid 3 WAR pitcher is a number 2 on most staffs. Not pitching at all gives you a number 6 starter.

An icentive based contract with it vesting for IP would be good. Benadino said his agent wants a multi year contract. He is out of luck that Moreno might not be a free spender on pitchers

 

I'm not really sure how to respond to this. You state that he has missed an entire seasons worth of starts over the last 4 years. Then you list every injury he has had in his career that has caused him to miss time. Now you claim you you're not implying he's injury prone?

 

I have no idea what you're talking about w/r to Berardino. There is a quote from Johnson's agent about wanting a 1 year deal and he suggests it should be around $14 million. I also have no idea who Moreno is in this context.

 

It's clear that you value "health" and innings pitched in previous years. As I've already stated, and tried to explain why multiple times, I don't. I'm sure I'm in the minority. Let's move on.

[ashbury]

Moderator's note: the back and forth between two members on the side topic of metrics has probably about run its course - if by chance either of you feels motivated to pursue it further, how about starting a fresh thread on it?

[AlwaysinModeration]

How about the Twins sign Ubaldo for 4/52 AND Josh Johnson for 1/11 plus hopefully an option year for 12-14?

 

Can the Twins find 24mm in salary space for this year for both of these guys? Getting Johnson the Twins roster, even on a 1-year deal, is the best way to keep him for an extended time (see Pavano, Carl.)

 

Then I'd like to see Ryan round out his über-aggressive pitching spending spree with a flyer on Phil Hughes (3/18?) or Johan.

 

Would anyone else sign on to this plan?

[bl4ckduck]

Let's look back in the past less than one year. In order to get Kevin Correia, the DEFINITION of league average, we had to give him two years. Hometown connection or not, we're still going to have to overpay to get Josh Johnson.

 

I like the 1 year plus options route, but honestly, if we had to guarantee him as many as three years, I say go for it. We've got money to spend. You don't spend FA money on the "one piece", you spend FA money on building certainty, something to build around.

[nicksaviking]

How about the Twins sign Ubaldo for 4/52 AND Josh Johnson for 1/11 plus hopefully an option year for 12-14?

 

Can the Twins find 24mm in salary space for this year for both of these guys? Getting Johnson the Twins roster, even on a 1-year deal, is the best way to keep him for an extended time (see Pavano, Carl.)

 

Then I'd like to see Ryan round out his über-aggressive pitching spending spree with a flyer on Phil Hughes (3/18?) or Johan.

 

Would anyone else sign on to this plan?

 

I would sign off, but I'm guessing Hughes and Jimenez won't. With the added revenue I'd bet Jimenez gets closer to $15-16M per year. I also don't think Hughes goes for that deal. If he can only get $6M per, he's only going to accept a one year deal to rebuild his value.

 

Still, even if it's 4/64 for Jimenez and 1/8 or 2/16 for Hughes, I'm game.

 

Frankly, any contract the front office gives to any pitcher with plus strikeout potential I will endorse, even if it's a guy I don't much care for or believe in. The effort is what will count in my book as I have been waiting over 20 years for that kind of initiative.

[TheLeviathan]

How about the Twins sign Ubaldo for 4/52 AND Josh Johnson for 1/11 plus hopefully an option year for 12-14?

 

Can the Twins find 24mm in salary space for this year for both of these guys? Getting Johnson the Twins roster, even on a 1-year deal, is the best way to keep him for an extended time (see Pavano, Carl.)

 

Then I'd like to see Ryan round out his über-aggressive pitching spending spree with a flyer on Phil Hughes (3/18?) or Johan.

 

Would anyone else sign on to this plan?

 

In addition to being well argued and something I completely agree with, you sold me with the effort to put an umlaut on "uber".

[nicksaviking]

I'm interested in Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, but is anyone else concerned that they both had rebound seasons the same time they were introduced to Terry Francona and pitching coach Mickey Callaway? What if those men have a knowledge, technique or philosophy those runnig the Twins do not posess?

 

With the track record of the recent Twins pitching staffs, I don't think it's out of line to say it would be best to get pitchers who can bring their A game to town with them and need as little in-season refinement as possible. I don't want to rely on the club's current coaching staff to have to adjust anyone on the fly.

[PseudoSABR]

That JJ didn't receive a QO makes signing him more palatable. And I agree, that if the Twins are interested in Johnson long term if he returns to form, a one year deal is the best way to make that happen. That said, I don't blame the Twins for their apparent lack of interest in JJ, given his health.

[AlwaysinModeration]

In addition to being well argued and something I completely agree with, you sold me with the effort to put an umlaut on "uber".

 

[debating whether to take credit for iPhone autocorrect.]

 

I personally think a rotation of JJohnson, Ubaldo, Gibson, Deduno, and Hughes/Worley would make the Twins pretty competitive, actually.

 

And a lineup of Hicks, Mauer, Arcia, Willingham, Colabello, Plouffe, Parmelee, and Florimon...actually could be productive too.

 

Meyer and Sano waiting in the wings.

 

Then Josh Johnson can start and win the Wild Card game, and get extended for 4/50.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Dozier, too.

[TheLeviathan]

[debating whether to take credit for iPhone autocorrect.]

 

I personally think a rotation of JJohnson, Ubaldo, Gibson, Deduno, and Hughes/Worley would make the Twins pretty competitive, actually.

 

And a lineup of Hicks, Mauer, Arcia, Willingham, Colabello, Plouffe, Parmelee, and Florimon...actually could be productive too.

 

Meyer and Sano waiting in the wings.

 

Then Josh Johnson can start and win the Wild Card game, and get extended for 4/50.

 

I think the offense still would need some serious work, but at least it's a competent pitching staff with upside to be well above that.

 

It's important, IMO, to not let the second biggest mistake of last offseason (And it's not as distant a second place as people think) to ignore the offense and not address needs there.

[Nick Nelson]

Add his more than 1 K/IP to his 93 mph average fastball, to his under 30 age and you got a guy who you (or someone) will want to sign for a 3-4 year contract.

 

And I think that a 3/40 or 4/50 might be what it will take, including incentives. Look at what Lincicum got, and Johnson has fewer questions...

 

Yeah, about that...

 

From Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick (via Parker):

 

There’s no question that we are going to go after a one-year and try to rebuild his value because he’s going to be treated as an injury liability