Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Tim Lincecum

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2421-Free-Agent-Pitcher-Profile-Tim-Lincecum

[beckmt]

Agreed, I have been pushing his signing for a long time this year. Price seems about right, qualifying offer hopefully will not detour the Twins from this signing

[shoestrings]

I actually heard Lincecum wants a short term (1-2 year) deal to reestablish a higher value on the market. Quick Hits: McCann, Lincecum, Red Sox, Scherzer: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

[DomeDog]

Timmy hates the cold. And hates humid summers. And he's a diva when it comes to weather. My guess is he lands somewhere in California, Seattle (his native land) or.... Well Anywhere else would completely shock the Bay Area.

 

His arm isn't tired, it's old school rubber. Leave him alone with that pitch count hubub and the DL will leave him alone.

 

He is in transition. He is finally learning how to pitch now that he's lost some velocity. He has it figured he just needs to be consistent and completely let go of the old Cy Young Timmy. I saw most of his starts here in the Bay Area and he is an interesting gamble. he could be a top notch #2 and what you want going in to the playoffs. The Cy Young Freak is no more. Every time he tries to be that again, he fails.

 

The X factor is he could be coerced by a huge contract to be a reliever (2012 playoffs) where he has been infallible.

 

He's not my first pick but I wouldn't complain if we found a way to bring him in. He's fun to watch! Good luck trying to sugarcoat 4 snowless months out of the year.

[Winston Smith]

Until Ryan shows he will spend more than 8 mill a year on a pitcher it's kind of pointless to consider this kind of guy.

It would seem the Phil Hughes/Josh Johnson kind of guy would be more in Ryans range on short term, make good, type contracts in the 6-8 mill range.

[Twins Daily Admin]

I actually heard Lincecum wants a short term (1-2 year) deal to reestablish a higher value on the market. Quick Hits: McCann, Lincecum, Red Sox, Scherzer: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

Yeah, there are varying reports on that. Yesterday, that was reported. But previously, it was reported that he wanted a long-term deal.

 

I wonder if that latest rumor wasn't put out by his team to discourage the Giants from giving him a qualifying offer. Basically, that rumor said to me "If you give me a qualifying offer, you had better be ready for me to take it."

 

So that's the other problem - he might not even be available.

[twinsfan34]

Can't see the Twins entertaining him if he's given a qualifying offer ($14.1M or more annually). This is projected as a deep pitching draft. The Twins have to replace (get significantly better at) 7 position players and 6 pitchers to be competitive in the AL Central. That won't happen by signing Lincecum and giving up a #2 in next year's rule 4 [June College player] draft to do it.

 

If he cost $16M, and the Twins are actually willing to spend, I'd say go another $4M-$6M higher and attempt to get Tanaka. (counting salary and posting offer)

[GoTwins]

Could SF offer less than a 20% reduction for a qualifying offer?

If he earned 22M last year, would he have to be offered at least 17.6M?

[Wookiee of the Year]

Yeah, there are varying reports on that. Yesterday, that was reported. But previously, it was reported that he wanted a long-term deal.

 

I wonder if that latest rumor wasn't put out by his team to discourage the Giants from giving him a qualifying offer. Basically, that rumor said to me "If you give me a qualifying offer, you had better be ready for me to take it."

 

So that's the other problem - he might not even be available.

This makes sense to me--if Lincecum wants a 1-2 year deal, I don't know why he wouldn't take the Qualifying Offer. If he's available with a QO attached, it's safe to assume he's looking for a longer-term deal; if he's available with no QO attached, then he probably is interested in a short-term deal.

[Shane Wahl]

4 years and $64 million? Whoa. I was not expecting that estimate. He would be a fool to pass that lavish contract up. I had been thinking 2 and $28 million.

[JustinCB]

Not that I expect the Twins to engage in a bidding war for Lincecum, but Dan Haren has been a comparable pitcher over the last three seasons. Unlike Lincecum, Haren likely won't cost a draft pick and actually seems like a realistic target, moneywise.

 

From Fangraphs today: Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, and Perception Gaps | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Unfortunately, the Twins were on his no-trade list as recently as 2010 when he was with Arizona, so he may have a preference to pitch elsewhere.

[JustinCB]

Could SF offer less than a 20% reduction for a qualifying offer?

If he earned 22M last year, would he have to be offered at least 17.6M?

 

Qualifying offers are the same for all FAs, and are set by the league and the players association on a year to year basis. This year it's set at 14.1 MM.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

This guy has lost 29 games in the last two years with an ERA approaching 5--numbers that are Pelfrey like. Do we want to throw $30 million at him?? Really?? Same with Haren.

[ashbury]

double post

 

A quick tip, for you and others who find this has happened: when you click "Edit Post", you'll find a button allowing you delete the post if that's your preference.

[markos]

I don't like the idea of signing Lincecum. His numbers the past two years make me really nervous. Yes, he has a nice FIP and xFIP, but I don't trust them in this case. In general, I'm skeptical of a pitcher who has significantly under-performed his FIP (and xFIP) while pitching in one of the best pitcher's-parks in all of baseball and pitching in front of a top-10 defense. xFIP normalizes home run rate, but Lincecum's HR% has been much worse than average the last two seasons in one of the best pitching ballparks in baseball. How much hope is there that his HR rate drops significantly when leaving SF and the NL West? Additionally, he has had a large spike in LD% the past two seasons, which again was much worse than average for 2 straight seasons.

 

Baseball-reference has him with -0.6 WAR this past year because he pitched very poorly against below-average competition in front of a good defense in pitcher-friendly parks. In this case, I think their representation is more accurate than FIP or xFIP in determining his ability.

[JustinCB]

A quick tip, for you and others who find this has happened: when you click "Edit Post", you'll find a button allowing you delete the post if that's your preference.

 

Thanks. I tried that once, but wasn't clicking the little radio button for delete post. Got it now.

[TwinsAce]

I just saw that Timmy just signed with the Giants for 2 years.

Really would have liked to see the Twins sign him, but that is no longer happening this year.Giants, Lincecum Agree To Two-Year Deal: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

[Paul Pleiss]

Timmy signed with the Mariners, not the Giants. He's from Everette (40 minutes north of downtown Seattle) and has a condo in Seattle where he lives in the Off-season. Good move for both parties.

[MichiganTwins]

Nope, Tim just signed an extension with the Giants. Not sure where you are getting the Mariners from because it would not even be possible for him to sign with another team right now.

[Paul Pleiss]

Mostly just wishful thinking. Not sure how I put that all together.

[Let It Sano]

The deal is reportedly worth $35 million. Yikes

[GoTwins]

Qualifying offers are the same for all FAs, and are set by the league and the players association on a year to year basis. This year it's set at 14.1 MM.

Thank You

[Shane Wahl]

2 and $35 is much better for the Twins FA signing hopes than 4 years and $64 million!!!

[Dave T]

Wow, 2 years $35 million. Here's what SI had to say about his new contract:

 

"Over the last two seasons, Lincecum has posted a 4.76 ERA, which translates to a 72 ERA+ that is tied for the worst among major-league pitchers with 300 or more innings over those two seasons. The men he is tied with are Edinson Volquez, who was released by the Padres in August, and, in what should have been a giant red flag for Sabean, Barry Zito."

 

Nick, tell me again why this guy made your short list of FAs?

[Wookiee of the Year]

Wow, 2 years $35 million. Here's what SI had to say about his new contract:

 

"Over the last two seasons, Lincecum has posted a 4.76 ERA, which translates to a 72 ERA+ that is tied for the worst among major-league pitchers with 300 or more innings over those two seasons. The men he is tied with are Edinson Volquez, who was released by the Padres in August, and, in what should have been a giant red flag for Sabean, Barry Zito."

 

Nick, tell me again why this guy made your short list of FAs?

I'm going to guess this article comes pretty close to what Nick's answer would be: Tim Lincecum and the Slow Death of ERA.