The Mocks: 2014 MLB Draft (Twins Pick #5)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

It sounds like the the focus is on about 12-15 guys right now. Obviously that will change over time. Since there is a lot of chatter on here already, I'm going to try to gather some more information and maybe put out a really early draft board sometime over my Christmas break.

[Vervehound]

While Nola screams Twin's type player I just don't see him being a top 5 or top 10 talent. Ryan has gone for upside the last two drafts and I see him doing that again this year.

 

nola has the stuff of a number 3 but the pitchability of a number 1. i think he could pull a danny hultzen and shoot up draft boards, but he's already pretty high. i'm all for upside myself, just stating that the twins are going to have a hard time not calling his name, imo.

[cmb0252]

It sounds like the the focus is on about 12-15 guys right now. Obviously that will change over time. Since there is a lot of chatter on here already, I'm going to try to gather some more information and maybe put out a really early draft board sometime over my Christmas break.

 

Never too early to talk the draft! Definitely would like to see your current board Jeremy and be able to compare it vs mine. I was planning to post mine the week before college baseball season started.

[cmb0252]

Oakland has drafted a college player in the first round with ten of their last twelve picks' date=' since 2002—the last two years being the notable exceptions. In 2013, sixteen of their top twenty picks were college players—fourteen of twenty in 2012, but with five of the top seven picks being high schoolers. Those numbers are pretty close to the Twins,who picked fourteen of twenty college players in 2012, and sixteen of twenty in 2013.

Oakland’s College Draftees by year:[/color']

2011: 19 of 20; 2010; 15 of 20; 2009; 14 of 20; 2008: 16 of20; 2007: 18 of 20; 2006: 15 of 20; 2005: 13 of 20; 2004: 17 of 20; 2003: 20 of20; 2002: 20 of 20.

It appears that Oakland was more rigorous in their pursuit of college ballplayers in the early 2000’s. But even in 2002, several high school players were taken in the later rounds.

 

Given the potential pool of talent in June of 2014, I would be prejudiced toward drafting a college-level arm, without simply making that a default position. If 2014's version of Buxton or Russell are on the board, pick 'em. Problem is--unlike football and basketball drafts--talent scouts don't know if they have a Buxton or a bust until years later. That's why the statistics point toward betting on the college-level talent. That's where I'd lean, plain and simple.

 

Tons of college level guys fail. Painfully Wimmers was considered the safest pick his year and we know how that has turned out. Hultzen was taking in the top 5 because he was a safe quick to the bigs lefty which hasn't turned out well for the Mariners. If you are only going by stats the Twins should take a college position player every year.

 

When you draft in the top 5 you have to go for star power, not safety. You just don't get many chances to draft those guys. (Yes, you can find stars later in the draft but it becomes significantly harder once you get out of the top 5 historically).

[2wins87]

I seem to be in a minority here but so far I'm much more excited about Turner than Gatewood. We'll have to see how things shake out between now and the draft, but Gatewood seems to have too high of a probability of busting for me. Several evaluators have raised questions about his hit tool in games. Watching videos it looks like he's got a really pretty (and long) batting practice swing, but he rarely makes swings like it when facing live pitching, which makes me wonder how much of his raw power he'll be able to use. He'll have to make a lot of adjustments just to make it to the majors. I also don't think he'll stick at SS.

 

I think lots of people are dismissing Turner just based off of a lack of power potential. He doesn't have tons of raw power potential, but that doesn't mean he isn't incredibly athletic. Obviously he's got incredible speed, but I've also read really good reports on his bat speed, and general athleticism. I'm really impressed by the good reviews he's getting defensively despite switching to the position just a year ago and the fact that he wasn't heavily scouted going into college but immediately became a star, and has only continued to improve. To me that just speaks of natural athleticism and an incredibly quick learning curve.

[nicksaviking]

We can forget Rodon and Hoffman--they will be gone when the Twins select.

 

Last year Manaea was in the same position as Hoffman and by June we were starting to wonder if Manaea would fall to the Twins in the 2nd round. Odds are Hoffman will be picked high but it's no lock. Rodon either. The Pirates picked Appel at #8 just two drafts ago.

[nicksaviking]

A list of Twins 1st round picks this century:

 

[TABLE=width: 269]

2013

Kohl Stewart -

HS

2012

Byron Buxton -

HS

2012

*Jose Berrios -

HS

2012

*Luke Bard -

4Yr

2011

Levi Michael -

4Yr

2011

*Travis Harrison -

HS

2011

*Hudson Boyd -

HS

2010

Alex Wimmers -

4Yr

2009

Kyle Gibson -

4Yr

2009

*Matt Bashore -

4Yr

2008

Aaron Hicks -

HS

2008

*Carlos Gutierrez -

4Yr

2008

*Shooter Hunt -

4Yr

2007

Ben Revere -

HS

2006

Chris Parmelee -

HS

2005

Matt Garza -

4Yr

2005

*Hank Sanchez -

HS

2004

Trevor Plouffe -

HS

2004

*Glen Perkins -

4Yr

2004

*Kyle Waldrop -

HS

2004

*Matt Fox -

4Yr

2004

*Jay Rainville -

HS

2003

Matt Moses -

HS

2002

Denard Span -

HS

2001

Joe Mauer -

HS

2000

Adam Johnson -

4Yr

2000

*Aaron Heilman -

4Yr

 

 

[/TABLE]

 

Even if we're extremely generous and say the jury's still out on guys drafted after 2007, I count Perkins and Garza vs Mauer, Span, Plouffe, Parmelee and Revere. Even if you toss out Parmelee, the Twins had more success 2000-2007 drafting HS kids in the 1st round.

 

If we looked at the developing guys we still have some hope will turn into MLBers, it seems as though college players Gibson and perhaps Bard are all that's standing compared to Hicks, Harrison, Berrios, Buxton and Stewart.

 

League wide maybe college players are better, but the Twins seem to do better identifying the HS kids, at least the more well known guys who go in the 1st round.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

That data was from 1.5 decades ago and it seems that it is not accurate any longer. Buxton and Stewart seem to be thought of pretty highly.

 

Buxton and Stewart offer a small sample size. The benefit of Bill James' longitudinal research is that multiple players were evaluated over several years of draft data.

 

J.C. Bradbury evaluates several of Bill James' theories in the following post. Scroll down to #9 if you want to read his entire rebuttal on James' theory on drafting college players. Here's his argument in a nutshell:

"The college draft pool is more certain: not only do we know the good players, we know the bad ones too. Part of the reason the returns to drafting college players are better is that teams stop drafting college players once the good ones are gone."

 

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/agreeing-and-disagreeing-with-bill-james/

 

Two other writers identify with James' research. Carl Bialik writes "Why it Pays to Go to College"

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/06/10/the-count-why-it-pays-to-go-to-college/

 

Bialik quotes several sources to prove his point, most notably Keith Scherer, an analyst for Baseball Prospectus. His findings:

 

"65 percent of the collegians earned at least one Win Share through their Age 30 seasons; only 41 percent of the high schoolers did the same.

Seven of the top 10 Win Shares earners through Age 30 were collegians.

The collegians account for 64 percent of all Win Shares earned by these two groups (again, through their Age 30 seasons).The high-school draftees earned an average of 15 Win Shares through age 30. Their college counterparts earned 26 Win Shares, a 65 percent lead over the high schoolers. (That difference of 11 Win Shares equals roughly four victories.)

 

Even if we consider only the pitchers who reached the majors, the collegians still do better: an average of 41 Win Shares for the college guys, 37 for the high schoolers.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1811682

 

I've been surfing the net, trying to find other longitudinal studies that include more recent data. All the same, it would take a dramatic shift of success by high school players to overcome the weight of evidence that already exists--drafting a college-level ballplayer is a better bet than drafting a high school player.

[cmb0252]

Buxton and Stewart offer a small sample size. The benefit of Bill James' longitudinal research is that multiple players were evaluated over several years of draft data.

 

J.C. Bradbury evaluates several of Bill James' theories in the following post. Scroll down to #9 if you want to read his entire rebuttal on James' theory on drafting college players. Here's his argument in a nutshell:

"The college draft pool is more certain: not only do we know the good players' date=' we know the bad ones too. Part of the reason the returns to drafting college players are better is that teams stop drafting college players once the good ones are gone."

 

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/agreeing-and-disagreeing-with-bill-james/

 

Two other writers identify with James' research. Carl Bialik writes "Why it Pays to Go to College"

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/06/10/the-count-why-it-pays-to-go-to-college/

 

Bialik quotes several sources to prove his point, most notably Keith Scherer, an analyst for Baseball Prospectus. His findings:

 

"65 percent of the collegians earned at least one Win Share through their Age 30 seasons; only 41 percent of the high schoolers did the same.

Seven of the top 10 Win Shares earners through Age 30 were collegians.

The collegians account for 64 percent of all Win Shares earned by these two groups (again, through their Age 30 seasons).The high-school draftees earned an average of 15 Win Shares through age 30. Their college counterparts earned 26 Win Shares, a 65 percent lead over the high schoolers. (That difference of 11 Win Shares equals roughly four victories.)

 

Even if we consider only the pitchers who reached the majors, the collegians still do better[b']:[/b] an average of 41 Win Shares for the college guys, 37 for the high schoolers.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1811682

 

I've been surfing the net, trying to find other longitudinal studies that include more recent data. All the same, it would take a dramatic shift of success by high school players to overcome the weight of evidence that already exists--drafting a college-level ballplayer is a better bet than drafting a high school player.

 

Here:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-100-draft-flashback-what-does-it-all-mean/

[kab21]

You continue to reference articles from a decade ago using draft data from 2 decades ago. That had some relevance a decade ago but it doesn't matter when you are talking about individual top of draft talents. At #5 talent needs to evaluated on a case by case basis. It would be extremely foolish to form an opinion 7 months before the draft that ALL high school players should be avoided at pick #5.

[Kwak]

Draft decisions should be made on present-day, individual analyses and not on past results. It doesn't matter what happened in the past--it's what is now. There are advantages in both: the HS kid is younger, is more malleable for training, and has less wear-and-tear--he also has less experience and all of of it at lesser competition. The individual(s) is what matters, not past results. Example: Twins results with college pitchers in 1st round has been poor, but that that shouldn't affect this year's decision. In the same vein, the success of other franchises with college pitchers doesn't mean that the Twins will have the same result(s)--so that should not be the basis for decision. The decision must be made on the individuals this year​ and not on previous years.

[twinsfan34]

Buxton and Stewart offer a small sample size. The benefit of Bill James' longitudinal research is that multiple players were evaluated over several years of draft data.

 

J.C. Bradbury evaluates several of Bill James' theories in the following post. Scroll down to #9 if you want to read his entire rebuttal on James' theory on drafting college players. Here's his argument in a nutshell:

"The college draft pool is more certain: not only do we know the good players' date=' we know the bad ones too. Part of the reason the returns to drafting college players are better is that teams stop drafting college players once the good ones are gone."

 

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/agreeing-and-disagreeing-with-bill-james/

 

Two other writers identify with James' research. Carl Bialik writes "Why it Pays to Go to College"

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/06/10/the-count-why-it-pays-to-go-to-college/

 

Bialik quotes several sources to prove his point, most notably Keith Scherer, an analyst for Baseball Prospectus. His findings:

 

"65 percent of the collegians earned at least one Win Share through their Age 30 seasons; only 41 percent of the high schoolers did the same.

Seven of the top 10 Win Shares earners through Age 30 were collegians.

The collegians account for 64 percent of all Win Shares earned by these two groups (again, through their Age 30 seasons).The high-school draftees earned an average of 15 Win Shares through age 30. Their college counterparts earned 26 Win Shares, a 65 percent lead over the high schoolers. (That difference of 11 Win Shares equals roughly four victories.)

 

Even if we consider only the pitchers who reached the majors, the collegians still do better[b']:[/b] an average of 41 Win Shares for the college guys, 37 for the high schoolers.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1811682

 

I've been surfing the net, trying to find other longitudinal studies that include more recent data. All the same, it would take a dramatic shift of success by high school players to overcome the weight of evidence that already exists--drafting a college-level ballplayer is a better bet than drafting a high school player.

 

 

There has been a shift to HS players, even Oakland and the Mets GM (both 'college heavy' guys) have picked high school talent over college talent, opting for the best HS hitter over the best college hitter in both cases. McKinney (out of my backyard in West Plano) and Smith (for the Mets).

 

That data from Bill James is dated. It ebbs and flows both ways. I have data in a database since 1970. You will find that more college players make MLB (less distance to go, injuries, etc) but more HS players accumlate WAR over 20, over 30, and over 50. HS picks tend to be better players (that make the pros), but more college athletes make the pros.

 

Looking at the best players in the game you can find most of them are HS players or international signings.

 

Here's a sampling...

 

P - Clayton Kershaw (HS), Max Scherzer (College), Jose Fernandez (HS), Adam Wainright (College)

C - Yadier Molina (Int FA), Joe Mauer (HS), Buster Posey (College)

1B - Chris Davis (CC), Paul Goldschmidt (College), Edwin Encarnacion (Int/HS), Freddie Freeman (HS), Joey Votto (HS)

2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA), Dustin Pedroia (College), Jeff Kipnis (College)

SS - Hanley Ramirez (Int FA), Andrelton Simmons (JC), Troy Tulowitzski (college)

3B - Miguel Cabrera (Int FA), Manny Machado (HS), Adrian Beltre (Int FA)

LF - Jayson Werth (HS), Torii Hunter (HS), Michael Cuddyer (HS)

CF - Mike Trout (HS), Andrew McCutchen (HS), Adam Jones (HS), Carlos Gomez (Int FA)

RF - Jay Bruce (HS), Yasiel Puig (Int FA), Wil Myers (HS)

 

Then the last decade...some attempts...

 

C - Joe Mauer (HS), Yadier Molina (Int FA)

1B - Albert Pujols (CC)

2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA)

SS - Derek Jeter (HS)

3B - A-Rod (HS), Miggy Cabrera (Int FA)

LF - Barry Bonds (College)

CF - Torii Hunter (HS)

RF - Vladimir Guerrero (Int FA)

DH - David Ortiz (Int FA)

[twinsfan34]

Who are the best Twins Draft Picks of the past 25 years?

 

1. Joe Mauer

2. Torii Hunter

3. Justin Morneau

4. Brad Radke

5. Chuck Knoblauch

6. Michael Cuddyer

 

Then maybe...

 

Denard Span (HS), Jacque Jones (CC), Glen Perkins (College)...?

 

Wanna take a guess how the first 6 players were acquired?

[Kwak]

Who are the best Twins Draft Picks of the past 25 years?

 

1. Joe Mauer

2. Torii Hunter

3. Justin Morneau

4. Brad Radke

5. Chuck Knoblauch

6. Michael Cuddyer

 

Then maybe...

 

Denard Span (HS), Jacque Jones (CC), Glen Perkins (College)...?

 

Wanna take a guess how the first 6 players were acquired?

Your header said they were draft picks....

[twinsfan34]

Your header said they were draft picks....

 

Ha, touche...more clear. Which 'pool' were they picked from, the kiddie pool (high school) or the frat party (college)?

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

You continue to reference articles from a decade ago using draft data from 2 decades ago. That had some relevance a decade ago but it doesn't matter when you are talking about individual top of draft talents..

 

I have said, and continue to say, that the Twins should be prejudiced toward college-level talent. The statistical data goes back several decades, and continues to this day. This does not mean that a high school-level talent can't overule conventional wisdom. I have not stated that "ALL high school players shoud be avoided at pick #5." Did I say that? But this draft squares up with a number of college-level arms that could be legitimate top 5 picks. Given the statistical preponderance of evidence supporting college talent, and the nature of the 2014 draft, the balances continue to swing in the direction of pitchers like Hoffman, Finnegan and Beede. Cmb0252 refers to http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-100-draft-flashback-what-does-it-all-mean/ but there is no smoking gun here.

 

Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.

 

Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2009/05/final_word_on_top-10_pick_pitc.html?wprss=nationalsjournal

[Lonestar]

Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.

I don't think anyone is arguing that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft. They are just interested in the BPA' date=' whether the P means Player or Pitcher.

 

I don't think you can be convinced.

 

Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2009/05/final_word_on_top-10_pick_pitc.html?wprss=nationalsjournal

Do you know how many MLB starting pitchers drafted after 1965 have made the Hall of Fame? One -- Bert Blyleven. Does that mean we should wait until the 3rd round to draft pitchers and then draft them out of high school.

 

Of course if you followed that author's logic, you would draft position players, not pitchers. And you would be biased (or in your words prejudiced) towards high schoolers.

 

Now there is an apparent bias towards college starting pitchers at the top of the first round. That's because there is more maturity, more refinement, more success against a higher competition. In 2013 it was Appel and Gray. As of now, it appears to be Rodon and Hoffman. That doesn't mean if you are the Twins that you should be prejudiced in favor of a college SP at #4 or #5. As has been said, no one is complaining about Kohl Stewart.

 

I think most of us would boo the Twins if they drafted the 2013 Beede with his poor control (lack of refinement). If he makes that refinement next year, the outlook would be different. That doesn't mean someone else would be wrong to prefer Kolech or Turner or Jackson or whoever they think is BPA.

[kab21]

Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.

 

This is where the disconnect lies. Nobody is arguing that the Twins should take a HS player. They are disagreeing that there should be a preference towards a college pick. The Twins should consider ALL potential picks that are worth the #5 pick. There are college pitchers, HS pitchers, HS hitters and college hitters that are in the mix at #5. Eliminating a talent like Kolek, Gatewood or Jackson from consideration would be foolish for the Twins.

[maxisagod]

At number five the Twins should be targeting someone that is a franchise player. Someone that immediately because #1 or #2 at his position in the minor league system. I think the HOF, college vs High school numbers gets that discussion off track. Who, from this class, today, do you see fulfilling that role? The Twins have broken from their "Twins Player" drafting enough over the last few drafts that the 1st pick is truly wide open. Rodon, Hoffman, Turner, Kolek, Jackson (if he stays at C 1, outfield 2-3), Gatewood (If he stays at SS), and Maybe Toussiant; fit that role in my option. Who do you guys see as a franchise player? (pretend like we don't already have 3-4 in our system already )

[kab21]

The Twins should be targeting whichever top talent is still available at #5 regardless of position or HS/UNI experience. The hope is that there are at least 5 elite talents in the draft. Last year there were 4 imo and the Twins got the 4th which happened to be a HS'er. This year it looks like there are 3 pitchers in that mix (Rodon, Hoffman and Kolek) with Turner, Gatewood (seems like he could drop this spring), Jackson and a couple of others that could rise. but the pool of elite talents could change considerably before the draft. All of them should be on the radar but whether or not they are 1st rd'ers or top 5 picks is unknown.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

This is where the disconnect lies. Nobody is arguing that the Twins should take a HS player. They are disagreeing that there should be a preference towards a college pick. The Twins should consider ALL potential picks that are worth the #5 pick. There are college pitchers, HS pitchers, HS hitters and college hitters that are in the mix at #5. Eliminating a talent like Kolek, Gatewood or Jackson from consideration would be foolish for the Twins.

 

The disconnect lies in a basic misunderstanding between the role of organizational strategy and operational tactics. Draft strategy begins with evaluating player talent over the next seven months. It also includes weighing the relative advantages or disadvantages of drafting a college-level player over/against a high school player. It would be foolish to make decisions without consulting this data, just as it would be foolish to lock in on a decision now.

 

Sabermetricians like Bill James have helped general managers devise a draft strategy before a tactical decision must be made in a draft-day "war room." I'm arguing that a good strategy would be to weigh the potential advantage of a college-seasoned draftee against the potential disadvantage of choosing a high school talent that has not faced a higher level of competition.

 

The fun is found in speculating what will happen as the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs make picks 1-4. Then, the Twin's front office will make a tactical decision, based upon a strategic theory. I'm trying to make the case for including Bill James' findings as part of that strategic theory--that's all.

 

Baseball--like war, firefighting, and other strategic enterprises, has interlocking rings of Doctrine (Rule 21:no betting on baseball!), Strategy (sabermetricians' realm), Tactics (filling out a lineup, calling a pitch), and Operations (making that pitch, swinging away, fielding a grounder hit deep into the hole, planting, pivoting, and throwing to first base.) Someday I'll post a blog on this.

[Major League Ready]

Seems reasonable to me to pick the guy you have the most faith in regardless od HS or college. It appears thats what they did with Stewart. If they are on "the fence" between two prospects, I could see taking the college guy from a risk perspective.

[kab21]

The disconnect lies in a basic misunderstanding between the role of organizational strategy and operational tactics. Draft strategy begins with evaluating player talent over the next seven months. It also includes weighing the relative advantages or disadvantages of drafting a college-level player over/against a high school player. It would be foolish to make decisions without consulting this data' date=' just as it would be foolish to lock in on a decision now.

 

Sabermetricians like Bill James have helped general managers devise a draft strategy before a tactical decision must be made in a draft-day "war room." I'm arguing that a good strategy would be to weigh the potential advantage of a college-seasoned draftee against the potential disadvantage of choosing a high school talent that has not faced a higher level of competition.

 

The fun is found in speculating what will happen as the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs make picks 1-4. Then, the Twin's front office will make a tactical decision, based upon a strategic theory. I'm trying to make the case for including Bill James' findings as part of that strategic theory--that's all.

 

Baseball--like war, firefighting, and other strategic enterprises, has interlocking rings of Doctrine (Rule 21:no betting on baseball!), Strategy (sabermetricians' realm), Tactics (filling out a lineup, calling a pitch), and Operations (making that pitch, swinging away, fielding a grounder hit deep into the hole, planting, pivoting, and throwing to first base.) Someday I'll post a blog on this.[/quote']

 

The disconnect lies in you misusing old draft results (20-30 year old drafts) to eliminate half of the draft pool. This college vs HS argument based on James findings from the 80's drafts is a small weighting when it comes draft time.

[twinsfan34]

I'm looking forward to the 2014 MLB Draft...

 

Definitely a lot more production in Starting Pitching (both High School and College) as well as power throughout the draft.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/led-by-north-carolina-states-carlos-rodon-mlbcoms-ranking-of-top-50-draft-prospects-revealed?ymd=20131204&content_id=64354604&vkey=news_mlb

 

"This Draft is pretty good," the AL scouting director said. "I'm excited. I think the pitching is a little ahead of the hitting, but it's actually a really athletic Draft with the high school kids and there's a pretty strong crop of power bats from college. I can't remember a time when there was this much power available."

 

Too bad we didn't have a lot of guys moving on like Fall 2011...I'd love more sandwich 1st RD picks in this upcoming draft.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

The disconnect lies in you misusing old draft results (20-30 year old drafts) to eliminate half of the draft pool. This college vs HS argument based on James findings from the 80's drafts is a small weighting when it comes draft time.

 

Who is eliminating half the draft pool? Me? You have turned my argument--positional bias in favor in favor of college-level pitchers into a straw-man argument where I am now eliminating half the draft pool.

 

Also, James' research was conducted over several years, on a longitudinal basis, beyond just the 80's. So, now you want to narrow his findings too. Why?

 

You say that college vs. high school considerations are a "small weighting" come draft time. At least you are willing to admit that there is some weight here.

 

Let's call it a draw, kab21, and enjoy the speculation. That's all we're doing here, anyway. Speculating...

[twinsfan34]

On the College vs High School Drafts - I can give you a rundown of total players drafted (4YR, HS, JC, Null (International), by position, who made the pros from each, and as they're incrementally better (5 WAR, 10 WAR, 20 WAR, 30 WAR, 40 WAR, 50 WAR).

 

College will get you more guys who make the pros. Almost double of the -5 WAR to 5 WAR players. Guys like Kyle Gibson (if he never plays MLB again) would fall into this category. His WAR is -0.8. Clete Thomas, 1.3 WAR is another.

 

Then as you go further along, it gets really close, less than 1-2% difference until you reach 30 WAR, then the high school players take off and are anywhere from 3-5 times more prevalent to have WAR over 30, over 40, and over 50.

 

Of the top 7 players drafted by the Twins since 1989 are all high school athletes, but one, Corey Koskie (5th).

 

1. Brad Radke - 44.5 WAR

2. Joe Mauer - 44 WAR

3. Torii Hunter - 42.5 WAR

4. Chuck Knoblauch - 39.8 WAR

5. Corey Koskie - 26.3 WAR

6. Justin Morneau - 19.7 WAR

7. Michael Cuddyer - 16.3 WAR

WAR is from Fangraphs WAR rating.

 

For what it's worth...

 

Billy Beane, supposedly a 'pro college' guy took Billy McKinney (West Plano, TX - HS) in the first round. Sandy Alderson, who trained/groomed Billy Beane while in Oakland, is a pro-college athlete guy, he picked the best HS hitter (Dominic Smith) over the top College hitter, D.J. Peterson (picked next by the Mariners).

 

 

[golfboy1]

I have said' date=' and continue to say, that the Twins should be prejudiced toward college-level talent. The statistical data goes back several decades, and continues to this day. This does not mean that a high school-level talent can't overule conventional wisdom. I have not stated that "ALL high school players shoud be avoided at pick #5." Did I say that? But this draft squares up with a number of college-level arms that could be legitimate top 5 picks. Given the statistical preponderance of evidence supporting college talent, and the nature of the 2014 draft, the balances continue to swing in the direction of pitchers like Hoffman, Finnegan and Beede. Cmb0252 refers to http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/top-100-draft-flashback-what-does-it-all-mean/ but there is no smoking gun here.

 

Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.

 

Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2009/05/final_word_on_top-10_pick_pitc.html?wprss=nationalsjournal[/quote']

 

 

I don't think anyone is claiming that they should look at HS "over & above"" College picks but they shouldn't do the opposite either.

 

I think there is always going to be a higher risk with a HS pick but if the talent warrants the selection they should go for it.

 

There have only been 4 HOF pitchers drafted since 1965 so the odds are against any of them being picked in the top 10. The odds are ALWAYS stacked against anyone being that great. For the record, the 4 are Blyleven, Nolan Ryan, Goose Gossage & Dennis Eckersley. All HS picks. So it appears ,if you want to draft a HOF pitcher pick a HS pitcher.

 

Another case could be made with Mauer. Drafting HS catchers is probably the highest risk possible but it turned out great with Mauer while the "safer" college pick of Prior flamed out. There is not "set in stone" formula.

 

PS..twinsfan34.. I believe Knoblauch was a college draft pick from Texas A&M but your point is still correct.

[twinsfan34]

 

PS..twinsfan34.. I believe Knoblauch was a college draft pick from Texas A&M but your point is still correct.

 

I had thought so...

 

But then I thought I looked it up and didn't see it. Good catch.

[twinsfan34]

This is a snippet...of pitchers only.

 

Randy Johnson (4YR), Greg Maddux (HS), Tom Glavine (HS), John Smoltz (HS), Jack Morris (4YR), Curt Schilling (JC) are also likely HOF candidates, but in Drafts prior to 1990. I haven't entered all the data into my Database before 1985 as there's many phases of the Draft. June Secondary, January Secondary, etc.

 

Here's a rundown of pitchers drafted since 1990.

 

[TABLE=width: 441]

Player_Name

Club

School_Type

WAR

Mike Mussina

Orioles

4Yr

83.0

Roy Halladay

Blue Jays

HS

64.6

Andy Pettitte

Yankees

HS

60.8

Tim Hudson

Athletics

4Yr

57.0

CC Sabathia

Indians

HS

55.3

Mark Buehrle

White Sox

JC

53.9

Roy Oswalt

Astros

JC

50.1

Javier Vazquez

Expos

HS

46.0

Brad Radke

Twins

HS

45.5

Cliff Lee

Expos

4Yr

43.3

Justin Verlander

Tigers

4Yr

40.3

Jake Peavy

Padres

HS

37.3

Zack Greinke

Royals

HS

36.9

Cole Hamels

Phillies

HS

34.8

Chris Carpenter

Blue Jays

HS

34.5

Derek Lowe

Mariners

HS

34.5

Josh Beckett

Marlins

HS

33.7

Jered Weaver

Angels

4Yr

33.6

Dan Haren

Cardinals

4Yr

33.4

Barry Zito

Athletics

4Yr

33.0

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

HS

33.0

Matt Cain

Giants

HS

32.5

Brandon Webb

Diamondbacks

4Yr

31.4

Jason Schmidt

Braves

HS

29.6

Adam Wainwright

Braves

HS

29.4

Kevin Millwood

Braves

HS

29.4

Mike Hampton

Mariners

HS

29.0

Alex Fernandez

White Sox

JC

28.9

Jarrod Washburn

Angels

4Yr

28.5

Billy Wagner

Astros

4Yr

28.1

Kerry Wood

Cubs

HS

27.7

Jon Lester

Red Sox

HS

27.6

John Lackey

Angels

JC

27.5

Ted Lilly

Blue Jays

JC

27.0

Joe Nathan

Giants

4Yr

26.9

Bronson Arroyo

Pirates

HS

25.7

Jon Lieber

Royals

4Yr

24.3

Randy Wolf

Phillies

4Yr

24.1

James Shields

Rays

HS

23.8

Josh Johnson

Marlins

HS

23.8

Nick Markakis

Reds

HS

23.5

Ben Sheets

Brewers

4Yr

23.4

Tim Lincecum

Giants

4Yr

23.0

Jon Garland

Cubs

HS

22.4

Keith Foulke

Giants

4Yr

20.9

Aaron Sele

Red Sox

4Yr

20.6

Rick Helling

Rangers

4Yr

20.6

Matt Morris

Cardinals

4Yr

20.5

John Danks

Rangers

HS

20.4

Dontrelle Willis

Cubs

HS

20.3

Jermaine Dye

Rangers

HS

20.2

Mark Mulder

Athletics

4Yr

20.0

Jonathan Papelbon

Athletics

4Yr

19.7

Brad Penny

Diamondbacks

HS

19.6

Ryan Dempster

Rangers

HS

19.2

Kyle Lohse

Cubs

HS

19.0

Jeremy Guthrie

Indians

4Yr

18.8

David Price

Rays

4Yr

18.6

Doug Davis

Dodgers

HS

18.5

Max Scherzer

Diamondbacks

4Yr

18.1

Erik Bedard

Orioles

JC

17.9

Scott Kazmir

Mets

HS

17.8

Rich Harden

Mariners

HS

17.6

Aaron Harang

Rangers

4Yr

17.5

[/TABLE]

[twinsin17]

Thank you for sharing this list. A few things strike me when viewing it. One, Mike Mussina had an excellent career when compared with pitchers in his generation. Certainly HOF caliber. And Brad Radke had a heck of a career! Yes, a handful of the pitchers listed just below him are still pitching and will surely pass him but 45 career WAR is pretty outstanding. Too bad so many of those Twins teams weren't able to showcase his ability more.