Article: Revisiting the 4-Man Rotation

[Teflon]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2310-Revisiting-the-4-Man-Rotation

[Rosterman]

The pain now is that with lefty specialists and such, plus relievers only going an inning (Duensing), the long-man has all but disappeared. You need to have three guys, in the least, that can go 3-4 innings, and then they can only be used every other game at the most, and probably every third day at the least, and if they are good enough for that role, why not just make them a starter.

 

My favorite of the old 4-man rotation days (in which you did have a fifth man, by the way, who was around for double-headers or to sometimes give a rest...when starters threw more innings) were the starters like Jim Kaat who also threw 4-5 games out of the bullpen.

 

Right now, I almost wish the bodies were up here that the Twins could go with a 6-7 man rotation for the final two dozen games just to see pitchers (and where is Hermsen...at least let him shine or tank up here to see if he is valuable enough for a 40-man spot).

 

I imagine DeVries and Diamond and Tonkin will join the team momentarily. But who do you drop from the 40-man if you wish to add Beresford, for example.

[Mchans24]

I've never understood how on the modern era of medicine pitchers continue to be able to throw fewer and fewer innings and pitch counts continue to dwindle. My theory is that arms are babied entirely too much. Look at the twins who NEVER challenge pitch counts in the minor league, yet they continue to have a ton of guys needing TJ. It just baffles my mind.

[orangevening]

Weren't the Rockies experimenting with 6 man rotations last year or something in this vein

[Mike Sixel]

I have been suggesting a 3 man rotation, with relievers that throw 2-3 innings covering the other starts for some time. You use AAA to stash guys as you need them, if you need them. The math is not that hard, having the guts to try something new is very, very, very hard in baseball.

[Tibs]

This is definitely an interesting concept to me. How does this rotation work if you have someone like a Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw though? Would they still only be limited to 5 innings?

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I like this idea. A couple of modifications--keep somebody like Swarzek around to cover for doubleheaders or injuries as a long/man and starter. If we find a top of the rotation guy (say Diamond) next year--keep him in thru 7 innings if he is getting the job done (or we have a big lead).

[Wookiee of the Year]

I wish more cellar-dweller teams (like, unfortunately, the Twins over the last few years) showed more willingness to try outside-the-box thinking like this. When it's apparent you're going to be bad, why not dare to be different to see if you can change that?

[h2oface]

Nice! Absolutely. I just put DEVO on.

[Teflon]

This is definitely an interesting concept to me. How does this rotation work if you have someone like a Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw though? Would they still only be limited to 5 innings?

 

It wouldn't be used except when your team has a shabby starting rotation and it wants to limit the exposure of those pitchers in each game. If you have a staff with quality pitchers like Verlander & Scherzer or Kershaw, Greinke, & Ryu there wouldn't be a need to do that.

[Teflon]

Weren't the Rockies experimenting with 6 man rotations last year or something in this vein

 

Yes they were. Nearly identical to what I proposed in the blog, in fact. (I wish I'd been aware of that when I wrote it - I would have referenced it.) Jim Tracy experimented with four starters in the rotation limited to 75 pitches per game and "piggy-backing" relievers.

 

Here are a couple of articles from the Denver Post

 

Rockies four-man rotation gaining traction as season continues

 

Colorado Rockies plan to use "piggyback" four-man rotation in 2013.

 

It seems as if the strategy had the desired effect of improving the overall team pitching performance but didn't seem to spawn any strong support.

[Oldgoat_MN]

This is not the coaching staff that you can hope to bring 'outside the box' thinking to the forefront. I like the idea and would like to see the idea given more of a chance, especially with the staff the Twins currently have to work with.

 

Have the Rockies kept at it? What are/were some of the conclusions drawn?

 

It is amazing how seldom thinking outside the box happens in pro sports. Remember that Bill James changed the way many people look at hitters, and this is simply not very long ago.

[Guest USAFChief]

Great topic. Thanks.

 

At one point, not all that long ago (from my perspective anyway...) 5 man rotations were "outside the box" thinking.

 

Change can ​happen.

[gil4]

Nice! Absolutely. I just put DEVO on.

 

He said "dare to be different," but that's going a bit too far.

[Physics Guy]

I love the idea and agree it would be an optimal way to grind out some wins with a subpar pitching staff. Here's how I could see it working:

 

Starters:

Correia

Diamond

Gibson

Pellfrey/Worley/Deduno

 

Swingmen (6th and 7th inning):

Swarzak

Devries

Pressley

 

Late Inning Guys:

Lefties - Duensing and Thielbar

Righties - Burton and Fein

Closer - Perkins

 

I think you can get by with a 12 man staff with this arrangement. The swingmen are used for 2 innings ionce every three days. If the starters go five, everything works great. If we get a short start, we still have five guys backing up the swingmen that can fill in innings.

[Jeff A]

Twins starters don't often throw much more than five innings anyway. If nothing else, it'd look better if they called it a plan.

[Mike Sixel]

My proposal:

 

Gibson, RP 1 (late inning guy), RP 2 (closer)

RP 3 for 3 innings, RP 4 for three innings, RP 5 for 1-2 innings, closer/whatever

KC

Nice FA

RP 5 for 3 innings, RP 6 for 3 innings, whatever

 

That is 11 pitchers right there....add 1-2 more relievers, have 2-4 guys in AAA that are "starter relievers" to come up as needed, that's a plan that a team like this should be looking at right now. Because they are not going to find 4 new starters for next year.....

[Teflon]

I've been looking at what the Rockies did last year at it appears they had 5 different phases of how they managed their rotation.

 

Phase 1 - Starting Normally

They started the season with a traditional 5 man rotation, pitching all 5 even when off days presented themselves. As a result, there were a number of starts early in the season with 6 days rest. Pitch counts seemed to be limited around 100. They did this up through the end of June.

 

Phase 2 - A Quick 4-man Appearance

For one pass through the rotation at the beginning of July, the Rockies used only 4 pitchers and brought the first one back (Jeff Outman) with only 3 days rest. This may have been in response to his short outing in his previous appearance and a desire not to pitch the normal next pitcher in the rotation, Alex White, who had gotten clobbered in his last start.

 

Phase 3 - Back to the 5-man Routine

After the single 4-man pass, the Rockies returned to the 5-man set-up for two more trips through the rotation sandwiched around the off days for the All-Star game.

 

Phase 4 - The 4-man Test

The Rockies' experimentation with the 4-man starting staff lasted 8 trips through the rotation, from the middle of July to the Middle of August. Starters were cutoff at 75 pitches and faced around 19 batters per game.

 

Phase 5 - The 5-man Test

For the remainder of the season (9 trips through the rotation) the Rockies reverted to 5 man rotation but kept the same reduced pitch count limits as they had used in the 4-man trial.

 

I'm in the process of trying to quantify the results from each of the phases and will post them when completed. My early take on the numbers is that the 5-man trial with reduced pitch counts at the end of the season was the most successful phase, but will do comparisons before stating that as a fact.

[Mike Sixel]

But heres' the thing, from that, it is obvious they did not strategically PLAN to do a 3 or 4 man starting rotation. An organization that plans for it, that organization could be successful. An organization that does it because, well, they had not good SP and this might work, they aren't as likely to be successful.

[orangevening]

Off topic:here we are talking about 75 pitch count limits, when back in the day (cue the "we-walked-to-school-in-2-feet-of-snow-uphill-both-ways" grumpy old man speech) Cy Young competed 749 of the 815 games he started. 511 wins and 316 LOSES. His stats just boggle the mind compared to what pitchers do today.