Still so far away/ the time is now.

[Oxtung]

6) Plouffe and Florimon seem to have earned starting spots to begin next year, no more than that.

 

I'm not sure that Florimon has earned anything. His line currently is .216/.273/.325/.598. That is terrible. If he continues to slump he could end up with an OPS in the .550 range.

 

I think that Danny Santana will be given a opportunity to compete in spring training with Florimon.

[stringer bell]

I guess I haven't paid great attention the last couple weeks. Man, Florimon has slumped again since his wrist injury. I noticed that Plouffe had homered a couple of times, but overall he's still not hitting much. I don't see anyone in the organization except for Sano who could start for Plouffe. Santana probably needs some time in Rochester before he can be considered to replace Florimon. So, to rephrase, Plouffe and Florimon may have played just well enough to be "incumbents", but haven't established themselves as part of the Twins' future.

[amjgt]

Dozier is 6th among MLB 2nd basemen in WAR.

 

WAR isn't a perfect metric, of course, but that earns him better than "plug him in until the next guy comes along" status on this team.

 

A mid-2014 lineup of:

Buxton

Mauer

Hammer (healthy)

Sano

Arcia

Kendys Morales - FA signing

(1B????)

Dozier

Florimon

 

Is one that a) has the chance to be potent, isn't filled with 1-year stopgaps, and c) has really good upside youth

[Oxtung]

Dozier is 6th among MLB 2nd basemen in WAR.

 

WAR isn't a perfect metric, of course, but that earns him better than "plug him in until the next guy comes along" status on this team.

 

A mid-2014 lineup of:

Buxton

Mauer

Hammer (healthy)

Sano

Arcia

Kendys Morales - FA signing

(1B????)

Dozier

Florimon

 

Is one that a) has the chance to be potent, isn't filled with 1-year stopgaps, and c) has really good upside youth

 

Buxton won't be up by midseason and might not be at all next season. If the Twins are as terrible as they are this season, which seems likely, Willingham hopefully won't be on the team after midseason. I actually think he was a good signing and like his bat but he won't be a part of our future, might be able to return some prospects and certainly will open up needed AB's. As much as I would like it, I don't think the Twins will sign anyone as good as Morales. Florimon is slowly turning into the player we all feared he would be offensively. Mauer, Sano, Arcia and hopefully Dozier would sure be nice to see.

 

Slight nit-pick but I don't think the Twins would slot Sano, or any player just brought up, into the clean up role. Given your lineup I think it's more likely to be Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon. Or if they aren't comfortable with Buxton batting lead off immediately it might be Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, Doumit, Florimon.

[stringer bell]

I expect that Buxton will start 2014 at New Britain. If (certainly a big "if") he dominates the AA level, there is a chance of mid-season promotion to Rochester and a tiny chance of promotion to the big leagues. I think that he is special enough to immediately bat lead-off, moreso than I think that Sano would start his career as a cleanup hitter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I read that article before I read the one I posted. Did you read the one I posted? It's quite long so I am assuming not.

 

An interesting article but it doesn't prove your point for a few reasons:

 

1. The data used in that article was from 1977-1992. That is... problematic for obvious reasons.

 

2. Even under the "best" of circumstances, the run expectancy for sacrifice bunts was marginally better than swinging away while swinging away held a commanding lead in most situations.

 

3. The author doesn't do a very good job of analyzing what percentage of sacrifice bunts are actually successful and admits that he can't pull sacrifice bunt statistics from older games at all (basically, he's guessing, which places the entire article in question).

 

4. You started this argument by saying Gardy should have called for a Dozier bunt. Brian Dozier is the second-best hitter on the team. The article clearly states that the only time a sacrifice bunt might break even or take a marginal lead in run expectancy is when you call for it when your worst hitters are at the plate.

[AROG]

An interesting article but it doesn't prove your point for a few reasons:

 

1. The data used in that article was from 1977-1992. That is... problematic for obvious reasons.

 

2. Even under the "best" of circumstances, the run expectancy for sacrifice bunts was marginally better than swinging away while swinging away held a commanding lead in most situations.

 

3. The author doesn't do a very good job of analyzing what percentage of sacrifice bunts are actually successful and admits that he can't pull sacrifice bunt statistics from older games at all (basically, he's guessing, which places the entire article in question).

 

4. You started this argument by saying Gardy should have called for a Dozier bunt. Brian Dozier is the second-best hitter on the team. The article clearly states that the only time a sacrifice bunt might break even or take a marginal lead in run expectancy is when you call for it when your worst hitters are at the plate.

 

I appreciate the time you took to read the article. It was long. I think you misunderstood the part about the older games, he left them out of the table for the reason that he wouldn't just guess. In the final table there was only one situation where it wouldn't create more runs in the AL and that is by the 5 hitter, equal. He didn't use the clean up for obvious reasons, the never bunt. The time frame he used was because it is the only play by play data available. It is also useful because through it you can extrapolate what actually happened when a team bunted vs. not bunt.

 

Oxtung, my point was that stats don't tell everything, not that they lie. And if you are comfortable having a computer as a coach, that's fine too. I am not, you can get a picture of our game from stats but that isn't the whole game, unlike chess, the pieces in our game are people, they are not just numbers. That is why so many people ask about seeing the minor league players in person so that they have context to the stats we see.

 

The article wasn't written to say you should always bunt as much as to disprove the notion that bunting is always bad. Like I said before, I understand the math, I disagree with your interpretation of result. That doesn't make you wrong and me right, although it is obvious that we both think we are. We will disagree and I am ok with that.

[amjgt]

Buxton won't be up by midseason and might not be at all next season. If the Twins are as terrible as they are this season, which seems likely, Willingham hopefully won't be on the team after midseason. I actually think he was a good signing and like his bat but he won't be a part of our future, might be able to return some prospects and certainly will open up needed AB's. As much as I would like it, I don't think the Twins will sign anyone as good as Morales. Florimon is slowly turning into the player we all feared he would be offensively. Mauer, Sano, Arcia and hopefully Dozier would sure be nice to see.

 

Slight nit-pick but I don't think the Twins would slot Sano, or any player just brought up, into the clean up role. Given your lineup I think it's more likely to be Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon. Or if they aren't comfortable with Buxton batting lead off immediately it might be Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, Doumit, Florimon.

 

I'm not totally clear on what Morales could expect to get as a FA. He is having a fine year, but nothing special. My mostly uneducated estimation is something in the neighborhood of 2/16, but looking at a relatively recent Mariners blog ( The Mariners Don?t Need To Extend Kendrys Morales | U.S.S. Mariner ) they seem to thing that Seattle would make a qualifying offer (14 mil) in order to attach some draft pick compensation to him. That seems crazy for a most-of-the-time DH (occasional 1B) who is OPSing around .800 and is north of 30yo. Anything above 2/16 and I start to lose interest.

 

I agree with most of your thoughts on Willingham, but he's either going to return to near 2012 level and have trade value or look like this year and be worth nothing. Given the Twins luck, he will probably mash in April and May and tear up his wrist before we can trade him.

 

I disagree on Buxton. The Twins have shown an aggressive promotion approach with him. I can't see any scenario (baring injury) where he isn't starting the year next year in New Britain. From there, if he plays well, I don't think a mid-season call up is out of the question, especially given the existing CF and leadoff options in this team.

 

You're probably right on the line up construction. It was late and I was more concerned with getting the names in there in some semblance of a batting order than really drilling down on the nuances of the line up.

[amjgt]

One last note on Morales....

 

He is almost a perfect comp to Willingham before we signed him.

Morales: Kendrys Morales Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Willingham: Josh Willingham Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Edge to Willingham in power.

Edge to Morales in BA and OBP

Dead heat on OPS

Within 1 year of age - 30/31

Some injury history

 

One advantage on Willingham was that he was still viewed as a mostly everyday OF. Morales is mostly DHing at this point, but I'm not sure if that's by necessity (because of Smoak) or because he just isn't much of a fielder at this point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I disagree on #6. I think Plouffe needs a huge final 40 games of the season to save his job.

He's regressed in a big way, IMO. His OPS is now below .700, and if it finishes the season there, that is going to be tough to digest, given his really bad defense.

I hate to say it, because for some reason I've really always liked Plouffe, but the clock is ticking on his time here.

 

The key is next year... and not even all year. Plouffe will start at 3rd b/c there won't be other options (unless you think Romero is ready). Sano will likely be up mid year sometime assuming he mashes AAA pitching.

[Mr. Brooks]

The key is next year... and not even all year. Plouffe will start at 3rd b/c there won't be other options (unless you think Romero is ready). Sano will likely be up mid year sometime assuming he mashes AAA pitching.

 

Yeah, I keep hearing he'll get to start 2014 by default, but I'm not so sure of that.

He's ARB eligible this winter, so I could see them non tendering him, and just promoting or signing some AAAA placeholder for the league minimum until Sano is ready.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, I keep hearing he'll get to start 2014 by default, but I'm not so sure of that.

He's ARB eligible this winter, so I could see them non tendering him, and just promoting or signing some AAAA placeholder for the league minimum until Sano is ready.

 

Plouffe is in his first year of arb. He's going to get a couple million. I don't think that's a reason why he'd be non-tendered... not yet at least.

[Danchat]

Plouffe is in his first year of arb. He's going to get a couple million. I don't think that's a reason why he'd be non-tendered... not yet at least.

 

Plouffe will in all likelihood sign his first arbitration. If he has another mediocre season I'd say no to a 2nd ARB.

[Mr. Brooks]

Plouffe will in all likelihood sign his first arbitration. If he has another mediocre season I'd say no to a 2nd ARB.

 

I don't know. I think he needs a huge last 1/4 of the season. He's taken a pretty big step back offensively, and his defense is still awful.

At some point its not about the money, it's about getting away from this habit of wasting roster spots with guys who just are not any good.

[Kwak]

Plouffe is a lock to be signed next year. Given the Hicks disaster in CF there is no way the Twins will leave themself exposed to a rookie as their only option at 3B. The Twins aren't going to give up on him just yet anyway even if they did have plenty of other options at 3B.

[Mr. Brooks]

Plouffe is a lock to be signed next year. Given the Hicks disaster in CF there is no way the Twins will leave themself exposed to a rookie as their only option at 3B. The Twins aren't going to give up on him just yet anyway even if they did have plenty of other options at 3B.

 

Fair enough, but let's not compare Hicks to Sano.

Whenever it is that Sano comes up, he will mash.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Fair enough, but let's not compare Hicks to Sano.

Whenever it is that Sano comes up, he will mash.

 

People said that about Arcia too, and he ended up being sent down a bit. Sano will take some lumps, and if his AA stint is any indication, he's likely going to have to adjust... That said, he's shown (thus far) that he can. I'm not worried about Sano, but these types of expectations tends to lead to little patience when it is often needed.