Comparing The Rays, the Brewers, and the Twins, Part 1 (The Draft)

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I've often remarked on TD that as fun as the 2019 season was for the Twins it totally messed up their philosophy going forward and certainly damaged Rocco as a manager from the end of that season onward.  How else can you explain Rocco being completely unwilling to steal a base, even after the rules were changed to improve the success of base stealing?

Because the Twins MLB squad was made up with slow guys who weren't good baserunners, except for Buxton? The idea that Rocco didn't want to run and be aggressive on the bases is really just made up. The weren't drafting/developing speed. Who were the guys that were on the roster in 2020-2024 that you wanted trying to steal more? Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, and Miguel Sano? Ryan Jeffers and Luis Arraez's bad knees? Correa & Urshela? Solano, Polanco, and the corpse of Joey Gallo? Fat Manny Margot (let's be happy with the 4 bags Carlos Santana swiped)?

Unsurprisingly, they ran more in 2025 when it was healthy Buxton, Austin Martin, Luke Keaschall, healthy Royce, Harrison Bader, and Kiersey on the roster. But if you expected Rocco to be sending Wallner, Larnach, and Jeffers all the time...I don't know what to tell you, other than please never manage a baseball game.

Notably, Shelton had the Twins with fewer stolen bases in his first season than Rocco did in his last. But much like Rocco, Shelton was happy to send the guys who could run (Buxton when healthy, Royce when healthy, Keaschall, even Clemens). But he wasn't sending Bell, Larnach, or Lee and who can blame him?

Team should be better defensively if they have Culpepper at SS, Lee at 3B, Keaschall not in the infield, and Rodriguez & Jenkins in the OF and they should be able to run more with Jenkins and Rodriguez, and especially if Buxton's hip is good. The roster is turning over and they're clearly developing more guys with speed in the minors. But I don't expect Shelty to run any more than Rocco did when he doesn't have good runners.

[DataNerd]

The Brewers have some really good pitchers taken later in the draft (Miz, Burns, and ironically Drew Rasmussen now on the Rays) but their hitting picks have been much more average.  Turang is the only 1st rounder in the past decade who has become a star, and he came in a 4 year stretch where they completely whiffed on their other 3 picks.

I'm not sure the Rays are even that good at drafting.  My modeling has their 2 most valuable players drafted the last 10 years being, and I'm not joking, Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley.

It's easy to just say that the best teams are better at everything, but there are plenty of ways to build a team.  IMO the draft is the area the Twins are the strongest at but nobody builds a championship contender solely through the draft.

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The Rays being as good as they are with only three drafted and developed players shows how important it is to remember that acquiring young talent can happen in a multitude of ways.  The Rays churn the trade market and aren't afraid to move players when the timing calls for it.

I appreciate this article though, one of the best on TD in quite some time.  Looking forward to the next one!

I'm sure you know this but I'll mention it for others who may not be thinking about it when they look at 24 players via trade and only 8 homegrown on the Rays roster. 

Draft and Development doesn't always mean playing for the same team. 

Sometimes draft and development success means developing players that have value in trade and are then traded.  

For example (and this is going to end up involving the Rays, Brewers and Cleveland). Caminero was acquired in a trade with Cleveland for Tobias Myers who was a prospect at the time. Cleveland I'm sure regrets this. 

Myers struggled and was released by Cleveland? The Brewers signed him as minor league free agent at age 24. Milwaukee fixed some stuff. Got some production out of him and included him in a deal with Peralta to the Mets for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. 

The Brewers reload and still make the world series. 

The Twins don't do this stuff very well.  

[Mike Sixel]

On 10/25/2026 at 7:51 AM, SE23 said:

They also are better at roster management, trading productive players at peak value to maximize returns. The Rays and Brewers are thinking 3 or 4 moves into the future, while the Twins struggle to solve today's problems (which are all-to-often yesterday's problems as well.).

We are addicted to yesterday's choices and dread admitting mistakes.

What a great post.

[Riverbrian]

On 10/25/2026 at 9:51 AM, SE23 said:

while the Twins struggle to solve today's problems (which are all-to-often yesterday's problems as well.)

This sentence sums it up pretty good for me. 

This constant fixing today at the expense of tomorrow drives me crazy. 

Why is Milwaukee and Cleveland and Tampa consistently beating us today when they consistently make moves for tomorrow? 

Is it possible that you can successfully target tomorrow and still win today?

Milwaukee says yes you can. 

[TopGunn#22]

jmlease, I think you missed the point I was trying to make, which is probably on me for not explaining it well enough.  When a team hits 307 HR's, no one would expect them to lead the league in SB's or even be middle of the pack.  But that first season with Rocco set a tone and philosophy that the Twins would just out slug other teams.

With power such a sought after commodity, and expensive as well, it was never a sustainable model.  I don't disagree with the points you made, in fact I agree.  Guys like Kepler, Polanco and Rosario could have run more, but how that would have improved a team that struck out a lot is questionable. 

But year after year, the Twins just didn't add any players who were capable of supplying speed or even a higher level of defense to their lineup or bench.  And even after the rule changes to enhance and encourage the running game were instituted, Rocco was extremely slow to react.  Willi Castro kind of lit the fire somewhat in the 2nd half of 2023 but the Twins under Rocco just generally ignored the SB.  We never added a player like David Hamilton or Chandler Simpson who could pressure a team in late game situations as a pinch runner.

The Brewers employ David Hamilton at 3B.  A generally accepted "power" position.  Would the Twins, under Rocco, ever play a 3B with a .650 OPS and 4 HR's but 30 SB's at 3B?  Probably not.  When Cesar Tovar joined the Twins he played 70 games at 3B in 1967 and 78 in 1968.  Killebrew was primarily playing 1B with a little Rich Reese here and there.

I don't know what kind of manager Rocco was in the minor leagues.  But as a major league manager, he didn't believe in the running game.  If the Twins weren't drafting or developing speed as you say, that's on the FO for sure, but was Rocco requesting some speed and defense guys be included in drafting and developing or had he bought into the 3 run HR or a strikeout and 2 men LOB philosophy?  

The game has changed a little from 2019 and Rocco will probably get another chance to manage somewhere.  It will be interesting to see how Rocco approaches his lineup.  I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but my gut tells me speed will not be a priority to him.   

 

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

jmlease, I think you missed the point I was trying to make, which is probably on me for not explaining it well enough.  When a team hits 307 HR's, no one would expect them to lead the league in SB's or even be middle of the pack.  But that first season with Rocco set a tone and philosophy that the Twins would just out slug other teams.

With power such a sought after commodity, and expensive as well, it was never a sustainable model.  I don't disagree with the points you made, in fact I agree.  Guys like Kepler, Polanco and Rosario could have run more, but how that would have improved a team that struck out a lot is questionable. 

But year after year, the Twins just didn't add any players who were capable of supplying speed or even a higher level of defense to their lineup or bench.  And even after the rule changes to enhance and encourage the running game were instituted, Rocco was extremely slow to react.  Willi Castro kind of lit the fire somewhat in the 2nd half of 2023 but the Twins under Rocco just generally ignored the SB.  We never added a player like David Hamilton or Chandler Simpson who could pressure a team in late game situations as a pinch runner.

The Brewers employ David Hamilton at 3B.  A generally accepted "power" position.  Would the Twins, under Rocco, ever play a 3B with a .650 OPS and 4 HR's but 30 SB's at 3B?  Probably not.  When Cesar Tovar joined the Twins he played 70 games at 3B in 1967 and 78 in 1968.  Killebrew was primarily playing 1B with a little Rich Reese here and there.

I don't know what kind of manager Rocco was in the minor leagues.  But as a major league manager, he didn't believe in the running game.  If the Twins weren't drafting or developing speed as you say, that's on the FO for sure, but was Rocco requesting some speed and defense guys be included in drafting and developing or had he bought into the 3 run HR or a strikeout and 2 men LOB philosophy?  

The game has changed a little from 2019 and Rocco will probably get another chance to manage somewhere.  It will be interesting to see how Rocco approaches his lineup.  I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but my gut tells me speed will not be a priority to him.   

 

I'll add a couple of thoughts to your excellent post.

2019 was also prior to the rule changes limiting the amount of throws to hold runners on and the wider base.

Those rule changes significantly changed baseball in 2023.

I just did a quick AI search and the numbers were generated via AI and sometimes when I do that... They are not accurate so take the numbers with a grain of AI Salt.

Stolen Bases went up 40% league wide. The success ratio went up as well. Twins stolen attempt percentage went up even higher but we were 30th in the league in 2022 so the percentage uptick still left them well below the rest of the league. According to AI... The Twins went from 55 to 99 attempts. To compare... The Reds went from 91 to 238 attempts. Ronald Acuna by himself attempted 87 stolen bases in 2023. Castro was our leader with 38 attempts. 

The Twins were only caught stealing 13 times (Again According to AI). The Reds were caught 48 times. 

In my opinion... we have an opportunity this year to display increased athleticism this year. Don't know if Culpepper, Emma and Jenkins will be big stolen base guys but they should increase the possibility of a stolen base than what we have been typically rostering.  

 

[singlesoverwalks]

There's not a whole lot of new opportunities to exploit in baseball, so it makes sense that, when the rest of the league zigs, you should zag. Most of the GMs out there still want to be Brad Pitt in Moneyball, investing in college players that the scouts think are ugly. So now high school players are relatively undervalued. Or they are still stuck on three true outcomes, so you invest in the mushy stuff, like fielding and batting average. But also, do take advantage when change does happen. The league made new rules that made stolen bases easier and, by banning the shift, made middle infield defense hard again, so steal lots of bases and get good at middle infield defense before the competition wakes up.

I really enjoyed this article. Thanks.