Twins (Matthews) vs Tigers (Montero): 09/09/26, 12:10 PM

[MeleMouth]

19 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Do you expect every player to come up and be Ohtani immediately?

Not at all, but I'd like him to hit better than Alan Roden, and at least show something special, like bat speed, the ability to hit the ball hard, or control the strike zone.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Not at all, but I'd like him to hit better than Alan Roden, and at least show something special, like bat speed, the ability to hit the ball hard, or control the strike zone.

He has already shown more to me both on defense and on the bases than Roden ever did. And I even take Roden in both of those categories over Larnach.

Jenkins will be fine. 

[MeleMouth]

26 minutes ago, mrmpls said:

Mike Trout started pretty bad.

So did Aaron Judge.

They turned out ok

Judge had a 104 wRC+ after his first 11 games. That is not "pretty bad."

Trout did start off similarly to Jenkins, but he was called up at age 19 directly from AA. (And the Angels should not be an example to follow.)

Besides, one or two or three examples of someone doing well ignores the hundreds of examples of someone not doing well.

Finally, I don't know how clearly to say this: I still think Jenkins can be quite good, although there should be no expectations that he will become as good as Trout or Judge. His problem is that he looks overmatched right now. People seem to incorrectly interpret every comment that "Jenkins does not look good" as "Jenkins is not good."

[MeleMouth]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

He has already shown more to me both on defense and on the bases than Roden ever did. And I even take Roden in both of those categories over Larnach.

Jenkins will be fine. 

That's changing the goal posts. I said he should hit better than Roden, and your response is that you perceive he runs and fields better. (BTW, FanGraphs rates Roden better than Jenkins on the bases this year, although I agree with you that Roden was disappointing in the field, especially after he was hyped last year as a possible back-up center-fielder.)

[mrmpls]

17 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Not at all, but I'd like him to hit better than Alan Roden, and at least show something special, like bat speed, the ability to hit the ball hard, or control the strike zone.

like bat speed, --  did u look his up ?    

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

That's changing the goal posts. I said he should hit better than Roden, and your response is that you perceive he runs and fields better. (BTW, FanGraphs rates Roden better than Jenkins on the bases this year, although I agree with you that Roden was disappointing in the field, especially after he was hyped last year as a possible back-up center-fielder.)

And I meant more that you can't assume after 38 plate appearances anything about a player's ability. You just can't. So already assuming that he is or isn't better than Roden is foolhardy

[S Bart]

34 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Y'know I wrote Vahn in them I erased him, it seems too soon. Depends also whom else we have available to catch through FA. There's Khadim Diaw too.

Agree...next fall

[MeleMouth]

13 minutes ago, mrmpls said:

like bat speed, --  did u look his up ?    

Jenkins' bat speed is about league average. HIs contact rates and hard hit rates are low.

[MeleMouth]

26 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

And I meant more that you can't assume after 38 plate appearances anything about a player's ability. You just can't. So already assuming that he is or isn't better than Roden is foolhardy

I gave alternates - hit better than Roden or show something special in your skills. Loud outs would be great, as would good strike zone control, but Jenkins hasn't shown either yet. You are right that it's too early to make a final judgment, but it's not too early to become concerned.

For example, max exit velocity is something that stabilizes relatively quickly. Right now, the only players on the 2026 Twins with lower max EV are Fedko, Arcia, Outman, and Gonzalez. All are gone or will be soon.

General exit velocity stabilizes a little later, but not too late. Right now, the only Twins below Walker are Arcia, Keaschall, Outman, and Gonzalez. Keaschall has a much better contact rate. The others are gone or should be soon.

Contact rate stabilizes relatively quickly, also, His contact rate is similar to Kreidler's and Buxton's, but Buxton, as we know, hits the ball really hard. Jenkins has not. Even Kreidler has better hard hit rates, barrel rate, and exit velocities. (Gray, Lewis, Fedko, Outman, and Wallner are below them.)

I'm not looking for results, I'm looking for him to display skills.

Finally, of all fan bases, Twins fans should be among the first to be done with this "it's all going to work out" mantra.

Actually, one possible comp is 2015 Byron Buxton, who had similar barrel, hard hit, and contact rates at age 21 with poor results. He approached sub-par the next year and had a pretty good year the year after that, although it was largely driven by all-world defense as his offense remained below replacement level. After missing most of the next season with an injury, Buxton then had his first above-average year on offense the following year, in 2019 when he was 25 and missed another half-season with an injury.

[RpR]

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

I gave alternates - hit better than Roden or show something special in your skills. Loud outs would be great, as would good strike zone control, but Jenkins hasn't shown either yet. You are right that it's too early to make a final judgment, but it's not too early to become concerned.

For example, max exit velocity is something that stabilizes relatively quickly. Right now, the only players on the 2026 Twins with lower max EV are Fedko, Arcia, Outman, and Gonzalez. All are gone or will be soon.

General exit velocity stabilizes a little later, but not too late. Right now, the only Twins below Walker are Arcia, Keaschall, Outman, and Gonzalez. Keaschall has a much better contact rate. The others are gone or should be soon.

Contact rate stabilizes relatively quickly, also, His contact rate is similar to Kreidler's and Buxton's, but Buxton, as we know, hits the ball really hard. Jenkins has not. Even Kreidler has better hard hit rates, barrel rate, and exit velocities. (Gray, Lewis, Fedko, Outman, and Wallner are below them.)

I'm not looking for results, I'm looking for him to display skills.

Finally, of all fan bases, Twins fans should be among the first to be done with this "it's all going to work out" mantra.

Actually, one possible comp is 2015 Byron Buxton, who had similar barrel, hard hit, and contact rates at age 21 with poor results. He approached sub-par the next year and had a pretty good year the year after that, although it was largely driven by all-world defense as his offense remained below replacement level. After missing most of the next season with an injury, Buxton then had his first above-average year on offense the following year, in 2019 when he was 25 and missed another half-season with an injury.

Again, 38 plate appearances.

Here is his prospect savant page, which is aaa numbers. He literally had the highest score in the minors this year for anyone, including anyone in the Twins system.

He will be fine. 
https://prospectsavant.com/player/805805

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

I gave alternates - hit better than Roden or show something special in your skills. Loud outs would be great, as would good strike zone control, but Jenkins hasn't shown either yet. You are right that it's too early to make a final judgment, but it's not too early to become concerned.

For example, max exit velocity is something that stabilizes relatively quickly. Right now, the only players on the 2026 Twins with lower max EV are Fedko, Arcia, Outman, and Gonzalez. All are gone or will be soon.

General exit velocity stabilizes a little later, but not too late. Right now, the only Twins below Walker are Arcia, Keaschall, Outman, and Gonzalez. Keaschall has a much better contact rate. The others are gone or should be soon.

Contact rate stabilizes relatively quickly, also, His contact rate is similar to Kreidler's and Buxton's, but Buxton, as we know, hits the ball really hard. Jenkins has not. Even Kreidler has better hard hit rates, barrel rate, and exit velocities. (Gray, Lewis, Fedko, Outman, and Wallner are below them.)

I'm not looking for results, I'm looking for him to display skills.

Finally, of all fan bases, Twins fans should be among the first to be done with this "it's all going to work out" mantra.

Actually, one possible comp is 2015 Byron Buxton, who had similar barrel, hard hit, and contact rates at age 21 with poor results. He approached sub-par the next year and had a pretty good year the year after that, although it was largely driven by all-world defense as his offense remained below replacement level. After missing most of the next season with an injury, Buxton then had his first above-average year on offense the following year, in 2019 when he was 25 and missed another half-season with an injury.

I agree with 98.6 percent of what you wrote.

[SE23]

Just now, RpR said:

I agree with 98.6 percent of what you wrote.

There's all the confirmation I need.

[MeleMouth]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Again, 38 plate appearances.

Here is his prospect savant page, which is aaa numbers. He literally had the highest score in the minors this year for anyone, including anyone in the Twins system.

He will be fine. 
https://prospectsavant.com/player/805805

Looks great! I hope it happens.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Again, 38 plate appearances.

Here is his prospect savant page, which is aaa numbers. He literally had the highest score in the minors this year for anyone, including anyone in the Twins system.

He will be fine. 
https://prospectsavant.com/player/805805

The problem is many if not all of rookies the Twins brought up were "raking" in AAA. sadly that generally means nothing with the bat; if his glove is top line, that means a lot.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, SE23 said:

Willie Mays went 1-for-26 over his first seven games

 

 

Mays was .233 in his first 48 PA.  with the 1948 Birmingham Black Barons,  now Jenkins might go on a hitting streak, so we can compare when Jenkins has 48 PA.

[mrmpls]

2 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Jenkins' bat speed is about league average. HIs contact rates and hard hit rates are low.

38  at bats-  chill out

[knothole61]

8 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I told my Dad at Fan Appreciation Night in 1986 that the Twins would win the World Series the next year.

He looked down at me like I had an until-then undiagnosed brain injury.

Baseball is a funny game. And it's always a little better when you win.

LOP, you should have linked up with Kreskin to do a county fair circuit after that amazing prediction. Have you tried moving things without touching them?  

[knothole61]

8 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Not at all, but I'd like him to hit better than Alan Roden, and at least show something special, like bat speed, the ability to hit the ball hard, or control the strike zone.

MM, I understand your thrust here, but what better way to get this potentially valuable kid some good experience than to play him for the remainder of what is now clearly a lost season? He really does look lost and kind of clunky at bat right now, and I fully expect a strike out or a grounder to first during his at bats. He could become a star or perhaps Wallner, but let's have fun watching him develop and hoping for the best. I don't think that St. Paul has much to offer him at this point, do you?  

[MeleMouth]

5 hours ago, knothole61 said:

MM, I understand your thrust here, but what better way to get this potentially valuable kid some good experience than to play him for the remainder of what is now clearly a lost season? He really does look lost and kind of clunky at bat right now, and I fully expect a strike out or a grounder to first during his at bats. He could become a star or perhaps Wallner, but let's have fun watching him develop and hoping for the best. I don't think that St. Paul has much to offer him at this point, do you?  

Let's see where he's at after about 40 times putting the bat on the ball, unless his contact rates start to plummet. If his exit velocities, barrel or squared up rates, and contact rates are trending up, let him continue. Otherwise, yes, back to AAA to work on skills, not results.