The Twins Could Look Completely Different After the Trade Deadline

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, mickster said:

Bell is leading in RBI so hits in the clutch, Larnach is one of our best hitters - but won't bring back much more than an A or AA prospect.    Wallner would be a give away.  Banda is one of our better arms.   Go to St. Paul to watch the young guys for some time yet

I'm not sure your point about Larnach?

[mickster]

41 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure your point about Larnach?

Larnach provides more value to stay as a Twin then he nets in a trade.  Plus his average is in the .280 range with gap power.   Other than Buxton, I think he is extremely valuable for the 2026 team

 

[ashbury]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You will have to elaborate.  What statistical bias would be present by using a data set comprised of the highest WAR players or in this case generally the 10-12 highest producing players.   I was looking to identify how the highest producing players were acquired.  How could that result in statistical bias. 

You just spelled out exactly the bias.

I could point to Ryan Kreidler and Yoendrys Gómez as proof of success for the Twins' bottom-feeding tactics for player acquisition.

I don't use the term "bias" to imply bad intent.  But when analyzing large sets of data, some care is needed.  It's fine to use a biased data set if you are intrigued by a potential insight, to see whether something might be there. But then you need to validate the conclusion you want to draw by also looking at the contrapositive.

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You just spelled out exactly the bias.

I could point to Ryan Kreidler and Yoendrys Gómez as proof of success for the Twins' bottom-feeding tactics for player acquisition.

I don't use the term "bias" to imply bad intent.  But when analyzing large sets of data, some care is needed.  It's fine to use a biased data set if you are intrigued by a potential insight, to see whether something might be there. But then you need to validate the conclusion you want to draw by also looking at the contrapositive.

I think you have interpreted the way I approached this to mean the only thing that counts is when an established player is traded for a guy that has no major league experience.  I view Kriedler or Willi Castro the same way at least in the context of this discussion.  When we talk about roster building here, we generally look at through a lens of 4 categories.  1. Drafted by the Organization,  Free Agents, Trading prospects for  established players or Trading established players for unproven players.  There is another category of players like a Kriedler or Wiilli Castro.  I guess I could have created a couple more categories but there just are not enough of those guys to make a couple more categories meaningful.  Conceptually, the way we discuss acquiring players here, they are unproven just like all other prospects so that's where I put them.  If you want to quibble about another category especially for them, OK.  Would that change the percentage of players acquired as free agents or the percentage of production from established players acquired for prospects.?  Of course, the answer is that those categories would not change at all.  The difference is you would have another category of players that were unproven when acquired.  Add all those categories of unproven players up and you have the exact same result.

 

 

[dxpavelka]

On 6/29/2026 at 7:26 AM, MMBoys93 said:

They’re still 24th in baseball against winning teams and I can guarantee you that if they make the playoffs they’ll only be playing teams with winning records 

This seems to always be the twins issue. They feast off weak competition. 2019 they won 101 games, had a record under .500 vs teams with a winning record. Got swept by the Yankees and everyone was somehow shocked.

The point is if you can’t beat good teams, then buying at the trade deadline seems silly

You seem worried about records vs winning teams.  Only one team in last year's playoffs was more than 2 games over .500 against winning teams.  No American League playoff team was more than one game over .500 against winning teams.  Even the two time champion Dodgers were under .500  

Win the games you're supposed to win and let the rest sort itself out.

[JADBP]

On 6/28/2026 at 5:47 PM, DocBauer said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you. I think I stated they SHOULD resign Ryan, but I'm open to the idea of trading him. I just don't LIKE the idea. 

I'm TIRED of the idea that "we're not quite there". But of you DON'T once in a while KEEP a TOP player, how do you EVER actually GET THERE?

Look, if someone offered another TOP SP like Abel, and a TOP Catcher or 2B and another "Varland type" of arm that's ready for a full BP conversion, I could be IN 100%.

Maybe we extend Lopez instead of Ryan as the leader of the staff. I could see that happening. 

Again, I'm not OPPOSED to trading Ryan. But I'd rather keep him as a Twin for the next 4 years. I think that makes more sense than looking for the next Ryan. But you give us the next Abel...which I really dispute a contending team would do...and a TOP CATCHER or 2B, and throw in a 23-25yo ARM who has real talent but is Varland Jr just converting, or ready to convert, my mind can change in a hurry.

That's 2 top 100 prospects ready to debut, and a 3rd who might be the next Varland. Another team offers THAT, I'm on board for a trade.

Hi Doc:

I would LOVE to sign Ryan but I am 99% positive that the Twins have already burnt that bridge.  I highly doubt that he would sign an extension with the Twins...or even, let's say, the LAD if he were traded there.  He knows that if he has another year like this one, he will be earning $20-$30 mill on the open market.  I just can't see the Twins matching those offers, so the chances of him signing an extension are pretty much dead.  That said, all the teams know that he is the best SP available for trade (not named Skubal) and has that 2027 year, so yeah, he will bring a pretty good trade haul.  I think this is our reality, sadly.  

But, we may be at a point where we could get a good deal on an Lopez extension.  I expect he will come back strong and I love him on the team.

A more challenging question:  do you trust Zoll to make a good trade for Ryan?

 

[GopherMike]

On 6/28/2026 at 9:53 PM, Danchat said:

Trading Larnach should rely on whether they will buy his final season of arbitration, if that's going to be too expensive for them then it's better to trade him at the deadline than let him hit the open market and get nothing for him. 

It would be absolutely insane for them to not buy Larnach's final year of arbitration. I cannot even imagine that is a discussion right now. He is arguably the second best hitter on the team.