Jackson Flora Is Forcing His Way Into the Twins Draft Conversation at Three

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins will have options when they step to the podium with the third overall pick in this summer’s draft, but recent performances are beginning to shape the conversation in a meaningful way. One name that continues to gain traction is Jackson Flora, a college right-hander whose combination of production, stuff, and projection is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Industry outlets are starting to align on his value. Baseball America currently slots Flora as the third-best prospect in the class, while MLB Pipeline has him further back at 14th overall. That gap may not last much longer. MLB Pipeline recently highlighted Flora as the top emerging college pitcher in the draft, and his latest outings suggest that label is more reality than projection.

In his most recent start, Flora worked nine shutout innings while allowing just four hits. He issued a pair of walks and struck out nine hitters, continuing a dominant run. Across eight starts, he has yet to take a loss and owns an ERA under 1.00. In just over 52 innings, he has limited opponents to 26 hits while striking out 65 and walking only 15. It is the type of statistical profile that demands attention, even in a class loaded with talent.

What makes Flora particularly intriguing is how his arsenal continues to evolve. His fastball comfortably sits in the mid-90s and can reach triple digits. The slider has long been considered his primary secondary weapon, operating in the mid to upper 80s with the ability to miss bats consistently. However, it was his changeup that stole the spotlight in his most recent outing. He leaned on it more frequently than his slider against Cal Poly, showing growing confidence in a pitch that could ultimately round out a complete three-pitch mix.

That development matters because Flora is not just overpowering hitters. He is doing so with control. His strikeout rate sits north of 30%, but just as importantly, he is limiting free passes at a rate under 8%. The ability to command multiple pitches in the zone separates him from many of his peers and raises his floor as a starting pitching prospect.

Physically, Flora checks every box teams look for in a frontline starter. At six-foot-five, he generates premium velocity with relative ease and maintains it deep into outings. His fastball has shown strong shape with late life, while his slider usage includes both a sweeping version with significant horizontal movement and a firmer, tighter breaking ball. The changeup continues to trend upward, flashing the kind of late dive that can neutralize opposite-handed hitters.

At the top of the draft, much of the intrigue centers around what happens after Roch Cholowsky, who is widely viewed as the likely first overall selection. The Chicago White Sox are expected to make that call, leaving the next handful of picks open to interpretation. The Tampa Bay Rays go in several directions, including prep shortstops like Grady Emerson or Jacob Lombard, or a college bat such as Justin Lebron.

That uncertainty creates an opening for a player like Flora to climb. Pitching always carries risk, but teams picking near the top of the draft often prioritize impact, and Flora is beginning to look like one of the few arms in this class capable of providing it at a high level.

For the Twins, the decision at three will ultimately come down to how the board falls and how they balance ceiling with certainty. Flora is making a strong case that he offers both. If his current trajectory holds and he continues to dominate while refining his secondary pitches, he may not just be in the conversation. He could be one of the most compelling options available when Minnesota is on the clock.

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[LambchoP]

I like the idea, Twins always need pitching.

[Dman]

We've seen what dominant arms can do for teams.  I think he will likely slot in around pick three in the end.  The Twins getting the best pitcher in the class at number three seems like a good get to me.

Still I would argue they need hitting worse than they need pitching as they have several potential top of the rotation arms in the system, but not much for hitters outside of AAA.  I also would not mind Emerson or Lackey at three either.  

At any rate it's nice to know there is going to be an elite talent when they pick.  Seems like it will be hard to mess this one up with so many good choices likely to be there.

[twinstalker]

There might be others, especially including more dominant pitchers, but Flora seems like #3 to me.  I drafted him last month for one of my teams. 

The most important thing is that the Twins don't draft Justin Lebron:

2026 overall   .263/.397/.563  k rate 19% (2026) may seem good, but it's mostly versus much lesser competition, just like last year.

2025 overall  ,316/.421/.636  k rate 24%

2025 SEC conf:  .258/.361/.476  K rate 30%

Note that 2026 overall right now consists of almost all nonconference (easy) competition, and so it doesn't appear too much has happened to the K rate, which is untenable.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Best player available, every time. I could easily get on board with Flora. I have been impressed with his stat lines and highlight videos. Still, I will leave it to those guys who see him (and others) pitch on numerous occasions. Three months gives the brain trust plenty of time to make a decision. 

FWIW, I'm not as high on Justin Lebron but, again, I am not seeing his games.

[tony&rodney]

FWIW, Keith Law has a new board up at The Athletic. He has Flora #3 with Vahn Lackey at #2.

Seems like Grady Emerson has dropped a bit. He switched to a smaller school, less competition, and not excelling the way people imagined.

Meanwhile, I have not seen any of these guys in game action, so I have no real opinion except BPA as the pick.