Line up construction and base running

[Trov]

When I was writing a comment on another post I was thinking about how constructing your line up tells a lot about what you think about base running as a whole. In particular base stealing.  In the old days the lead off guy was generally one of your fastest guys that could steal a ton of bases.  You did not care how he got on, because odds were he was going to be at second quickly in the next at bat.  Maybe it did not always work out that way that was the plan. 

Now, the new thought is was want our best on base guy, regardless of speed, and if possible a big bat leading us off to get that quick HR or at least on base for the guys down the line up.  Kyle Schwarber is one of the most famous new style lead off guys.  He has 516 games at lead off in his career, with only 16 stolen bases.  He has hit 46 HR to start a game in his career, with 17 doubles and 1 triple.  He does get on base at about a .350 clip to start games.  (this is not his career states in the 1 whole just in first at bats of games) He has struck out at about a 30% clip as well. 

I do not know what kind of base runner he is in terms of a 1st to third type, but when you have a guy like that leading off, you are saying we are looking to get guys on and hope for the big blast to bring him in, if he did not do it himself.  There is no plans to steal, advance a guy and get a run in by getting ball in play.  To me, if you are setting your line up like that, you are not looking to take the extra bases, stealing, or trying to do the little things to help you win. I am all for having power guys, but when your whole plan is to always hit HR to score, you are leaving a lot of chances on the table.

That was one thing I never liked about Rocco was he was the big HR is the best way to win.  Sure, when it works, but when you are hitting the long balls you need to find other ways to win.  Having a mix of guys, some that can steal bases, get the first to third, advance on balls in dirt that were not very wild, or just be aggressive to draw throws can help the team a ton.  When you plan to play 90 feet at a time, it makes it hard for offenses to win unless you get the big extra base hits.  

Back in the day, there were guys that were not big extra base hit guys, but they still did not need to string 4 hits together to score, they took their extra bases other ways.  Extra bases are the keys to winning, because getting 4 singles/walks, to score 1 run is not viable offense, but there more other ways to get the extra bases that are not just on hits.  Stealing bases, hitting the ball to RF with runner on first to get 1st to 3rd.  Getting a guy over to 3rd with less than 2 outs and getting them in by making contact. 

Do you want all 9 guys to be that way, most likely not? But having 9 3 true outcome guys is just as bad in my opinion. 

 

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Trov said:

When I was writing a comment on another post I was thinking about how constructing your line up tells a lot about what you think about base running as a whole. In particular base stealing.  In the old days the lead off guy was generally one of your fastest guys that could steal a ton of bases.  You did not care how he got on, because odds were he was going to be at second quickly in the next at bat.  Maybe it did not always work out that way that was the plan. 

Now, the new thought is was want our best on base guy, regardless of speed, and if possible a big bat leading us off to get that quick HR or at least on base for the guys down the line up.  Kyle Schwarber is one of the most famous new style lead off guys.  He has 516 games at lead off in his career, with only 16 stolen bases.  He has hit 46 HR to start a game in his career, with 17 doubles and 1 triple.  He does get on base at about a .350 clip to start games.  (this is not his career states in the 1 whole just in first at bats of games) He has struck out at about a 30% clip as well. 

I do not know what kind of base runner he is in terms of a 1st to third type, but when you have a guy like that leading off, you are saying we are looking to get guys on and hope for the big blast to bring him in, if he did not do it himself.  There is no plans to steal, advance a guy and get a run in by getting ball in play.  To me, if you are setting your line up like that, you are not looking to take the extra bases, stealing, or trying to do the little things to help you win. I am all for having power guys, but when your whole plan is to always hit HR to score, you are leaving a lot of chances on the table.

That was one thing I never liked about Rocco was he was the big HR is the best way to win.  Sure, when it works, but when you are hitting the long balls you need to find other ways to win.  Having a mix of guys, some that can steal bases, get the first to third, advance on balls in dirt that were not very wild, or just be aggressive to draw throws can help the team a ton.  When you plan to play 90 feet at a time, it makes it hard for offenses to win unless you get the big extra base hits.  

Back in the day, there were guys that were not big extra base hit guys, but they still did not need to string 4 hits together to score, they took their extra bases other ways.  Extra bases are the keys to winning, because getting 4 singles/walks, to score 1 run is not viable offense, but there more other ways to get the extra bases that are not just on hits.  Stealing bases, hitting the ball to RF with runner on first to get 1st to 3rd.  Getting a guy over to 3rd with less than 2 outs and getting them in by making contact. 

Do you want all 9 guys to be that way, most likely not? But having 9 3 true outcome guys is just as bad in my opinion. 

 

If the Twins return to a gent getting on base, just standing there scratching his buttocks, this team will be a very, very boring team.

[chpettit19]

Not sure why who hits leadoff says so much about your desire to steal bases. Can a guy not steal bases if they hit 2 through 9? Corbin Carroll stole more bases hitting in the 3-hole last year (18) than he did hitting leadoff (12). But he hit leadoff in 72 games compared to 41 in the 3-hole. Part of that is that his OBP in the leadoff spot was .332 vs .388 hitting 3rd. But the desire to have him steal, or the team in general, didn't change between him hitting 1st vs 3rd. 

Tampa Bay lead the league in steals last year. Yandy Diaz hit leadoff for them in 64 games (2nd most of the team). He has 11 stolen bases in his career. 3 last year.

Seattle was 3rd in the league in steals last year. Seattle's 2 main leadoff hitters were J.P Crawford and Randy Arozarena. Combined for 15 total steals as leadoff hitters. 

The Cubs tied with Seattle for 3rd. Their main leadoff hitter (84 games) was Ian Happ. He had 4 stolen bases as a 1-hole hitter. Next most used was Michael Busch (52 games), he had 0 steals from that spot in the lineup.

The Mets were 5th in steals. Francisco Lindor was their main leadoff hitter (133 games) and stole 27 bases from the leadoff spot. He's a little tough to judge on why he was there as he's also one of the best hitters on the planet. But Juan Soto hit 2 for them most of the time, and he stole 38 total bases despite never stealing more than 12 in a season before. They were clearly a team looking to steal from any spot in the order.

Milwaukee was 2nd and have a whole team of fast guys you're talking about.

Those are the top 5 teams in steals last year. I don't think who their leadoff hitter was said much about their desire to steal bases as a whole.

[Trov]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure why who hits leadoff says so much about your desire to steal bases. Can a guy not steal bases if they hit 2 through 9? Corbin Carroll stole more bases hitting in the 3-hole last year (18) than he did hitting leadoff (12). But he hit leadoff in 72 games compared to 41 in the 3-hole. Part of that is that his OBP in the leadoff spot was .332 vs .388 hitting 3rd. But the desire to have him steal, or the team in general, didn't change between him hitting 1st vs 3rd. 

Tampa Bay lead the league in steals last year. Yandy Diaz hit leadoff for them in 64 games (2nd most of the team). He has 11 stolen bases in his career. 3 last year.

Seattle was 3rd in the league in steals last year. Seattle's 2 main leadoff hitters were J.P Crawford and Randy Arozarena. Combined for 15 total steals as leadoff hitters. 

The Cubs tied with Seattle for 3rd. Their main leadoff hitter (84 games) was Ian Happ. He had 4 stolen bases as a 1-hole hitter. Next most used was Michael Busch (52 games), he had 0 steals from that spot in the lineup.

The Mets were 5th in steals. Francisco Lindor was their main leadoff hitter (133 games) and stole 27 bases from the leadoff spot. He's a little tough to judge on why he was there as he's also one of the best hitters on the planet. But Juan Soto hit 2 for them most of the time, and he stole 38 total bases despite never stealing more than 12 in a season before. They were clearly a team looking to steal from any spot in the order.

Milwaukee was 2nd and have a whole team of fast guys you're talking about.

Those are the top 5 teams in steals last year. I don't think who their leadoff hitter was said much about their desire to steal bases as a whole.

I agree, it is possible to have a non-base stealer in your lead off, and still steal bases generally on the team.  However, what my point is that if you are putting a "slugger" that will hit HR or walk as your main leadoff guy, then it will tell more about the team philosophy as a whole.  There are times, you will not be seeking a to have the lead off guy steal, due to having them not on the bases for your middle of line up.  However, if they are slow plodding guys that will not even do first to third, they will clog the bases as well for the 2 hitter and 3 hitter.  It would make sense that Carrol would steal more as the 3 hitter than the lead off, because if he reaches with 2 outs you want him to steal second to increase the chance he scores in first inning.  However, he still is a guy that can steal, will go extra bases.  I am not saying the lead off guy has to be a guy that will steal a ton of bases, but if you put just an on-base guy that will not take extra bases generally, then your team is most likely a team that will look to hit HR for scores over finding other ways to score.

Is it 100% that way, no just as in anything there will be outliers, but I believe we will be able to glean a bit from who Shelton puts in the lead off spot on how he will generally manage.  Will this be day 1, of course not we will need to see a couple of weeks of games to see the trends. 

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, Trov said:

I agree, it is possible to have a non-base stealer in your lead off, and still steal bases generally on the team.  However, what my point is that if you are putting a "slugger" that will hit HR or walk as your main leadoff guy, then it will tell more about the team philosophy as a whole.  There are times, you will not be seeking a to have the lead off guy steal, due to having them not on the bases for your middle of line up.  However, if they are slow plodding guys that will not even do first to third, they will clog the bases as well for the 2 hitter and 3 hitter.  It would make sense that Carrol would steal more as the 3 hitter than the lead off, because if he reaches with 2 outs you want him to steal second to increase the chance he scores in first inning.  However, he still is a guy that can steal, will go extra bases.  I am not saying the lead off guy has to be a guy that will steal a ton of bases, but if you put just an on-base guy that will not take extra bases generally, then your team is most likely a team that will look to hit HR for scores over finding other ways to score.

Is it 100% that way, no just as in anything there will be outliers, but I believe we will be able to glean a bit from who Shelton puts in the lead off spot on how he will generally manage.  Will this be day 1, of course not we will need to see a couple of weeks of games to see the trends. 

Yeah, I guess I don't see that extrapolation based on 1 lineup spot. I gave you the top 5 teams in steals last year and 3 of the 5 did not have base stealers in the leadoff spot. I think it can tell you whether they're more "new school" in trying to get their best hitters the most at bats, but I don't think it tells you anything about whether or not they want to steal bases. Trea Turner isn't as good of a hitter as Kyle Schwarber. That's why he doesn't hit leadoff. But they still want Trea to steal bases when the time is right. He stole 36 last year.

We have data on Shelton. He's managed many years. Before he was fired last year he had Oneil Cruz leadoff more than anyone else on the Pirates (he had a .298 OBP, FYI). 91 PAs over 20 games with Ke'Bryan Hayes next at 23 PAs in 5 games.

In 2024, Andrew McCutchen lead the team with 364 PAs in the leadoff spot in 81 games. Followed by Isiah Kiner-Falefa (179 in 40 games), Connor Joe (60 in 14), and Oneil Cruz (50 in 11).

In 2023, the leader was Ke'Bryan Hayes with 204 PAs in 45 games. Followed by Ji Hwan Bae (113 in 27 games), McCutchen (101 in 22 games), and Connor Joe (80 in 21 games). I'm not going back any further, but there's 2+ years of data.

[Riverbrian]

Put your best hitters at the top of the order because they will be the guys who have the highest possibility of getting 4 or 5 AB's in any given game. 

There is no reason over think this one. 38 Plate Appearances per team per game is the average. 38 Plate appearences is 4 times through the order plus two. So that's a 5th AB for Slot #1 and Slot #2. And if that is the case... those AB's will occur in the ninth inning. 

That's why you put your best hitters at the top of the lineup. 

Stolen bases... they can occur at any place in the lineup. Batting leadoff in an inning is only guaranteed to happen in the 1st inning... that's it.  

[Trov]

On 3/24/2026 at 10:52 AM, Riverbrian said:

Put your best hitters at the top of the order because they will be the guys who have the highest possibility of getting 4 or 5 AB's in any given game. 

There is no reason over think this one. 38 Plate Appearances per team per game is the average. 38 Plate appearences is 4 times through the order plus two. So that's a 5th AB for Slot #1 and Slot #2. And if that is the case... those AB's will occur in the ninth inning. 

That's why you put your best hitters at the top of the lineup. 

Stolen bases... they can occur at any place in the lineup. Batting leadoff in an inning is only guaranteed to happen in the 1st inning... that's it.  

Do you not want your best hitters to be hitting with guys on base?  So if you put your best hitter number 1, does that increase or decrease someone will be on base and in scoring position for them, as opposed to batting 3rd or 4th?  

I get if your best hitter hits lead off, he will get more at bats than anyone else.  However, if those at bats are in less impactful situations, bases empty, versus people on base, does it help the team win?  You have the 8 and 9 guys hitting down there because they are your worst hitters, which means your best hitter will have less at bats with runners on base for him. This seems counter to what  you want.  

So you say well they will more likely get that at bat in the 9th inning.  So we plan a line up for the expectation that once in awhile we will have a 1 run game in the 9th to have my best hitter come up.  But if my best hitter was maybe hitting 3rd, with 2 good on base guys in front of him, the hit he got early in the game may have created more runs, not requiring him to come up down a run in the 9th, but actually with a lead. 

I guess I am more old school that I like having runners on base for my big bats and not just hope to get a solo HR to start an inning, or a walk and let the guys behind hopefully drive them in. 

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, Trov said:

Do you not want your best hitters to be hitting with guys on base?  So if you put your best hitter number 1, does that increase or decrease someone will be on base and in scoring position for them, as opposed to batting 3rd or 4th?  

I get if your best hitter hits lead off, he will get more at bats than anyone else.  However, if those at bats are in less impactful situations, bases empty, versus people on base, does it help the team win?  You have the 8 and 9 guys hitting down there because they are your worst hitters, which means your best hitter will have less at bats with runners on base for him. This seems counter to what  you want.  

So you say well they will more likely get that at bat in the 9th inning.  So we plan a line up for the expectation that once in awhile we will have a 1 run game in the 9th to have my best hitter come up.  But if my best hitter was maybe hitting 3rd, with 2 good on base guys in front of him, the hit he got early in the game may have created more runs, not requiring him to come up down a run in the 9th, but actually with a lead. 

I guess I am more old school that I like having runners on base for my big bats and not just hope to get a solo HR to start an inning, or a walk and let the guys behind hopefully drive them in. 

That must include the assumption that the 1 - 2 and 3 guys do what we want them to do and even the elite players still makes outs more often than they don't. 

It's all playing small increases in percentages either way. The on-base percentage of your 8 and 9 guy compared to the on-base percentage of your 1 and 2 guy is pretty thin when you break it down to a per AB basis. 

If I can make up numbers for example purposes. The 8 and 9 guy will get on base 31 out of 100 times. The 1 and 2 guy will get on base 38 out 100 times. 7 times extra per 100 AB's is pretty thin in the grand scheme of things on a per AB basis.

While saying that I realize that getting your best hitter that extra AB is also pretty thin so it's really 6 or a half dozen. 

IMO... I don't spend a lot of time worrying about batting order. I don't think the order needs to static. I think managers should players up and down based on hotness and coldness.

If I had one rule with batting order it would be separate your left handed and right handed hitters so the opposing manager doesn't automatically bring in the left hander when 3 left handed hitters in a row are due up.  

 

 

[tony&rodney]

How does one define "best hitter"? Unless a bater hits a home run getting on base is important for a leadoff batter. Schwarber does both. Ricky Henderson is arguable the best ever as a leadoff hitter. He also did both.

The Twins have experimented with a number of guys at the leadoff position, often using OBP. Byron Buxton was one of the better on base choices last year and he hits for extra bases. Until the Twins have a more set/talented roster we should expect different people hitting leadoff. 

Lastly, I will add that some players do not feel comfortable hitting leadoff. This is more common below the MLB level.