Article: Trading Perkins Makes Too Much Sense

[Brock Beauchamp]

Everyone agrees that Perkins is a valuable player. He is valuable if he remains and he is valuable in trade.

 

The real question is what is the bottom level return they should seek.

 

For me it is a single top prospect starting pitcher or shortstop. One really good prospect.

 

I don't know how you level that out to multiple players. Are two top 250 guys better than one top 100 guy? Maybe, but I think the Twins don't need depth as much as they need top talent so I want them to seek the one guy as the did in the Span deal.

 

As I have written before that level of return is probably beyond what should be expected for a reliever. That doesn't matter. Just keep Perkins if you don't get that deal this summer.

 

What is your bottom line return?

 

No way should the Twins be pursuing two decent prospects for Perkins. This system is flush with decent prospects like Vargas, Kepler, etc. What this team needs are impact players in the rotation and at shortstop.

 

With that said, I want a top 50 prospect for Perkins. If it's a pitcher, I'll consider a top 100 guy, especially one who is putting together an impressive season (such as Zach Lee). Bottom line, one marquee prospect has to be involved in the deal or it's a waste of time and a bad trade.

[ashbury]

The Capps/Ramos trade was awful at the time and it's still awful today. You don't give up top 100 talent during a down year

 

The trade was in 2010. The Twins won the division that year.

 

I hated the trade the moment it was made, too. Just not for that reason. I must be misunderstanding you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The trade was in 2010. The Twins won the division that year.

 

I hated the trade the moment it was made, too. Just not for that reason. I must be misunderstanding you.

 

Ramos was in the middle of a down year, not the Twins. I didn't make that very clear.

[Willihammer]

This system is flush with decent prospects

 

Maybe they should trade one of them insead?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe they should trade one of them insead?

 

Great in theory but incredibly difficult to accomplish in reality for whatever reason.

[ThePuck]

Maybe they should trade one of them insead?

 

We don't seem to do that very often. I think we covet our prospects too much when in reality a small percentage succeed. Then once coveted prospects fail, they have no value. Teams are after quality prospects in trades, especially the teams forced to have a lower budget and/or have a horrible farm system. Since we have the top farm system in baseball, and don't need to have such a low budget, I don't think it's unreasonable to at least look to try and trade one of our better prospects or two.

[Nick Nelson]

With that said, I want a top 50 prospect for Perkins. If it's a pitcher, I'll consider a top 100 guy, especially one who is putting together an impressive season (such as Zach Lee). Bottom line, one marquee prospect has to be involved in the deal or it's a waste of time and a bad trade.

This is pretty much how I view it. Absolutely the Twins need to get at least one premium prospect back in return for Perkins, but I guess I differentiate a bit between high-caliber prospects and guys like Archie Bradley and Allen Webster, who IMO are two of the best near-MLB-ready pitching prospects in the game. I think that's a tad too high to aim. Someone like Zach Lee might be more realistic and is certainly the type of piece I'd target.

[TheLeviathan]

Multiple high-quality prospects at positions of need. I just don't think it's realistic to expect to get back a high-end pitching talent that is close to the majors. As Terry Ryan has frequently said, teams rarely part with that kind of asset, and I can't see anyone doing it for a reliever. I'd love to be wrong.

 

I was just trying to float some names out there, so many people were talking generally about getting a high return and that means different things to different people. Zach Lee, for example, isn't a top 100 spec which wouldn't be high enough return according to most comments here. Now personally I shoot more for the 50-75 level, Alex Meyer type but I get Lee.

 

Just think being specific helps focus the conversation. All of us are totally speculating afterall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was just trying to float some names out there, so many people were talking generally about getting a high return and that means different things to different people. Zach Lee, for example, isn't a top 100 spec which wouldn't be high enough return according to most comments here. Now personally I shoot more for the 50-75 level, Alex Meyer type but I get Lee.

 

Just think being specific helps focus the conversation. All of us are totally speculating afterall.

 

After this season, Lee should be in the top 100. He's a 21 year old in AA, striking out 8.2/9 and giving up less than one hit per inning. Given that his projection is often seen as a #3 starter, he won't be too far up the list but I think he should be an 80-99 on several lists next year.

[Willihammer]

Great in theory but incredibly difficult to accomplish in reality for whatever reason.

 

I suppose when a prospect works out the organization views it as validation of their drafting and development systems as much as the player just being talented. Then again, when a trade works out you can attribute that to good scouting.

 

You would think a NL team in full rebuild mode like the Astros or Marlins would listen on some of our guys. I wonder what it would take to get a Norris or Fernandez?

 

edit: forgot the Strohs were in the AL now.

[jorgenswest]

I guess it depends on what list you look at for Lee making him at least a fringe top 100. I know he is repeating AA, but he hit AA at age 20 and did just OK last year. Not too many 20 year olds dominate AA. Sano isn't yet.

 

I would take Lee for Perkins straight up. I don't think the Dodgers would do it.

[jorgenswest]

I suppose when a prospect works out the organization views it as validation of their drafting and development systems as much as the player just being talented. Then again, when a trade works out you can attribute that to good scouting.

 

You would think a NL team in full rebuild mode like the Astros or Marlins would listen on some of our guys. I wonder what it would take to get a Norris or Fernandez?

 

Norris is 28, earning 3 million and arbitration eligible. His k/9 rate has dropped from 8.8 to 6.4. It might take a couple guys outside the top 100 like Rosario and Berrios. I wouldn't do it unless he was the piece the Twins needed to put them in the playoffs.

 

The Marlins might listen to offers for Fernandez if the Twins offered Buxton or Sano. Neither would be enough.

[kab21]

I suppose when a prospect works out the organization views it as validation of their drafting and development systems as much as the player just being talented. Then again, when a trade works out you can attribute that to good scouting.

 

You would think a NL team in full rebuild mode like the Astros or Marlins would listen on some of our guys. I wonder what it would take to get a Norris or Fernandez?

 

Norris will become available at some point but he will be a FA in 2.5 yrs I think. I could see Norris costing a Berrios/Rosario level prospect. Definitely someone in the 50-100 range.

 

Fernandez will require the moon to trade for. At least Sano if you are not familiar with the moon.

[drjim]

Everyone agrees that Perkins is a valuable player. He is valuable if he remains and he is valuable in trade.

 

The real question is what is the bottom level return they should seek.

 

For me it is a single top prospect starting pitcher or shortstop. One really good prospect.

 

I don't know how you level that out to multiple players. Are two top 250 guys better than one top 100 guy? Maybe, but I think the Twins don't need depth as much as they need top talent so I want them to seek the one guy as the did in the Span deal.

 

As I have written before that level of return is probably beyond what should be expected for a reliever. That doesn't matter. Just keep Perkins if you don't get that deal this summer.

 

What is your bottom line return?

 

I want most (if not all) of the value in one prospect and I want that prospect to be on the major league roster by the start of next season, or extremey close to ready. I agree the system doesn't need depth, that it needs to focus on more elite talents.

 

Anything short of that and this trade is an unnecessary step backwards imo. I think the team will be a fringe contender next year and shouldn't be moving good players that will contribute next year for prospects that would only help in a later season.

[ThePuck]

 

Fernandez will require the moon to trade for. At least Sano if you are not familiar with the moon.

 

That pretty funny right there!:-)

[TheLeviathan]

After this season, Lee should be in the top 100. He's a 21 year old in AA, striking out 8.2/9 and giving up less than one hit per inning. Given that his projection is often seen as a #3 starter, he won't be too far up the list but I think he should be an 80-99 on several lists next year.

 

And that makes sense, but he wouldnt have met the criteria of a lot of your earlier comments. Thats why name dropping, no matter how speculative, helps clarify. That's all.

[cmb0252]

From Jim Bowden:

The Justin Morneau era is about over in Minnesota. The Twins are prepared to trade him, with the Yankees, Pirates and Rays all being rumored as possible destinations. In other Twins news, the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, andAtlanta Braves are all chasing bullpen arms but have been told no on Glen Perkins. Those clubs all are monitoring Jesse Crain's health, as he might be the best reliever available.

[TheLeviathan]

From Jim Bowden:

The Justin Morneau era is about over in Minnesota. The Twins are prepared to trade him, with the Yankees, Pirates and Rays all being rumored as possible destinations. In other Twins news, the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, andAtlanta Braves are all chasing bullpen arms but have been told no on Glen Perkins. Those clubs all are monitoring Jesse Crain's health, as he might be the best reliever available.

 

Ugh. You have to listen. You don't have to deal, but you have to listen. I hope that report isn't true.

[Monkeypaws]

Ugh. You have to listen. You don't have to deal, but you have to listen. I hope that report isn't true.

 

We don't know that he didn't listen before saying no....

[Willihammer]

Norris will become available at some point but he will be a FA in 2.5 yrs I think. I could see Norris costing a Berrios/Rosario level prospect. Definitely someone in the 50-100 range.

 

Fernandez will require the moon to trade for. At least Sano if you are not familiar with the moon.

 

Really? My understanding was that the Astros are taking a very long view in their rebuild. Might even listen on a few Elizabethton or Cedar Rapids outfielders with upside (like Kepler). Hard to say.

 

And if Fernandez keeps representing the marlins at the all-star game then Loria is going to have some expensive Arby years to pay for. Might they listen to a trade involving Kohl Stewart?

[ThePuck]

And if Fernandez keeps representing the marlins at the all-star game then Loria is going to have some expensive Arby years to pay for. Might they listen to a trade involving Kohl Stewart?

 

We can't trade Kohl Stewart right now, but would we even want to do that? I'm not sure we would.

[nicksaviking]

We don't know that he didn't listen before saying no....

 

Yeah, to teams making the offer, "not enough" likely sounds the same as "no."

 

Ryan has already said everyone is available.

[TheLeviathan]

We don't know that he didn't listen before saying no....

 

Generally, that's not how the rumor would be stated if that's true. We'd hear the "price is too high" then. You could be right, but that's not how it usually is stated.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, to teams making the offer, "not enough" likely sounds the same as "no."

 

Ryan has already said everyone is available.

 

We also know he told Perkins he isn't going to trade him.

[nicksaviking]

We can't trade Kohl Stewart right now, but would we even want to do that? I'm not sure we would.

 

I would and wouldn't think twice about it. Stewart is where Fernandez was two years ago, the odds are slim he will get to Fernandez' level.

[nicksaviking]

Ryan has already said everyone is available.

 

We also know he told Perkins he isn't going to trade him.

 

I hadn't heard that one. In my opinion, only one of those statements is foolish for a GM to make.

[ThePuck]

I would and wouldn't think twice about it. Stewart is where Fernandez was two years ago, the odds are slim he will get to Fernandez' level.

 

Okay, just wondering. I think the scenario was Stewart and other(s). Out of curiousity, how many drafted high school arms have you figured wouldn't end up being ace material but ended up being ace material. It's not a post meant to attack but would you have said that two years ago about Fernandez and player X dominating in the bigs?

[TheLeviathan]

I hadn't heard that one. In my opinion, only one of those statements is foolish for a GM to make.

 

It was noted on broadcasts a few times.

[Willihammer]

We can't trade Kohl Stewart right now

 

Why not?

[Mike Sixel]

Why not?

 

Stupid MLB rules say a player has to be a year from the draft date to be dealt. MLB has a lot of odd rules....