CBA: Food for thought

[Riverbrian]

I'm just starting a thread to ask a question. 

The CBA states that until a player reaches 3 years of service time... they are paid the minimum. 

Let's Imagine that this clause doesn't exist. Let's imagine for the purposes of my upcoming question that players are eligible for free agency whenever contracts expire regardless of age. Let's Say Roman Anthony or Nick Kurtz could sign with any team and hit the free market as a 20, 21, 22 or 23 year old player.    

Doesn't it stand to reason... that Nick Kurtz or Roman Anthony would most likely get the largest contracts offered? Possibly instantly larger contract than a 27 year old like Juan Soto. Certainly length of contract could exceed what Soto was offered.  

Yet due to the terms of the CBA. The talented 23 year old must make the minimum until 3 years of service time is reached. Doesn't this CBA limitation on young talent...  create a synergistic increase in value for someone like Kurtz or Anthony.   

Just food for thought as the Twins go through this current rebuild process and try to acquire young talented players. 

Value exists in youth yet the CBA pays vets.   

 

[nicksaviking]

Based on how things typically go for Minnesota teams, if the Twins WERE to acquire some young top end talent, your proposed giant payday for young players will probably come to fruition with the new CBA, leaving the Twins in a spot where they can't or won't pay them.

[tony&rodney]

Since Curt Flood won his case, MLB and MLBPA have had a long wrestling match over how and in what fashion players can be tied to a club. The arrangements have changed over the last 50 years and now include foreign players as well, but the clubs still want control of where a player can work for at least the years now in the CBA. That system won't be abandoned imo. Skenes would maybe even break Ohtani's record. We will almost certainly see a few minor changes to the CBA and some of those will benefit the younger/less experienced players. 

[jorgenswest]

It is much more rare to acquire a talent the level of FV55 or better this decade. In the 2010s teams were willing to trade those top flight prospects like Anthony or Kurtz. Other than DeVries who was acquired for an all star with 5 years of service time, has there been a top flight player moved in the last three seasons?

I don’t think they get better than a Martin/Richardson or Tait/Abel type return by trading Ryan or Lopez. I think they were a 50 and 45 using Fangraphs.

Just for scale here is the number breakdown from the current fangraphs

FV60: 9 prospects

FV55: 11 prospects

FV50: 79 prospects

FV45: 192 prospects

FV40: 637 propects

How many significant players will result from those 928 prospects or the 908 after the top 20? How many of those 908 are going to need to use up two or three options before they settle in?

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

It is much more rare to acquire a talent the level of FV55 or better this decade. In the 2010s teams were willing to trade those top flight prospects like Anthony or Kurtz. Other than DeVries who was acquired for an all star with 5 years of service time, has there been a top flight player moved in the last three seasons?

I don’t think they get better than a Martin/Richardson or Tait/Abel type return by trading Ryan or Lopez. I think they were a 50 and 45 using Fangraphs.

Just for scale here is the number breakdown from the current fangraphs

FV60: 9 prospects

FV55: 11 prospects

FV50: 79 prospects

FV45: 192 prospects

FV40: 637 propects

How many significant players will result from those 928 prospects or the 908 after the top 20? How many of those 908 are going to need to use up two or three options before they settle in?

Exactly...  those deals are just not done anymore. This is a big part of why I'm asking this almost rhetorical question. 

If the Twins wanted to trade Joe Ryan. Pretty well established top of the line starter. Could he bring Eldridge or McGonigle to the Twin Cities in return?

I don't think he would. I started thinking about why wouldn't he. Ryan has two years of control at what will be increasing salary through arbitration. He's pretty established now as one of the top pitchers in baseball. Teams would love to have him on their roster. So why wouldn't he?

It occurred to me. If all contracts were null and void and everyone was free to sign with anyone. Roman Anthony at age 21... or Nick Kurtz at age 22 or Jackson Chourio at age 21... these 3 players could get the largest contracts offered. Bigger contracts than Soto, Ohtani or Judge. Maybe not in terms of AAV but after length of contract is factored in. 

Therefore... could they actually be... the most valuable players in the game right now. 

If so... take those players and now mix in the CBA rules that they make the minimum. (I know that Anthony and Chourio have signed extensions buying up those years). 

If that's the case... Is trading Joe Ryan worth it? 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The CBA states that until a player reaches 3 years of service time... they are paid the minimum. 

This amounts to nitpicking to the nth degree but I don't know whether the CBA says that.  Article VI begins, "Individual Player salaries shall be those as agreed upon between a Player and a Club...." (my emphasis) and then it states what the minimum salaries are to be (increasing each season) and when arbitration becomes available (3 years as you say).  It goes into infinite detail about what happens in split major/minor seasons, and meal money, and so forth.  But I don't see where it says plainly that you can't "agree upon" more than the minimum.

Indeed, b-r.com shows Royce Lewis being paid $745,000 in 2024.  The CBA minimum for that season was $740,000.

I somehow find this very interesting, even if totally unimportant.  How in h-e-double-toothpicks did Lewis pick up an extra $5,000 from the Pohlads???  In his shoes, part of me would want to say, "keep your pity money, I'll get paid later in ways that will dwarf this pittance."  The other part would want to crow, "look at me! I got SOMETHING."

But more importantly, what dark magic does Scott Boras use to pry a few dollars from the Pohlads' cold spectral clutches?  And why does he waste it to get a mere $5K?  (I know, I know: it's to show everyone he CAN. 

Maybe most importantly, it seems to me that the players' association had to know this form of collusion among owners ("I don't have to pay you a penny more than the minimum, that's my 'negotiation' for you") would occur given the wording of the CBA, and chose not to include wording that either sanctifies the practice or somehow forbids it.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Doesn't this CBA limitation on young talent...  create a synergistic increase in value for someone like Kurtz or Anthony.   

Since I nitpicked, I owe you an on-topic response, which is to say that the much maligned Baseball Trade Values website uses exactly this observation as part of its basic approach.  The variability of performance once a prospect reaches the majors serves as a slight damper on a player's trade value (I THINK this is what you approximately mean by "value" in your post) versus the hindsight once he gets established, but there's no question that front offices are looking for "excess value" in any MLB contract and the artificial ceiling on salaries creates a ton of that for the right players.

Yes, a contract like Soto's is nowhere near the maximum if true free agency were possible.  Someday some MLB club is going to mess up the paperwork for a prized rookie, some court will declare the contract void, and we'll find out what the max could be like.

[jorgenswest]

27 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If that's the case... Is trading Joe Ryan worth it? 

They need to hold out for a top flight prospect and more. I said the same for Duran.

There is value in keeping him beyond the hope they are competitive next year. Winning matters. It matters to development. His innings matter. It helps the bullpen and in turn will help the younger starters when the they get a more rested bullpen.

Even if they can acquire that top prospect they need to build their own and be willing to live through their mistakes. 

[Linus]

Interesting conversation. What’s really a head scratcher is that not that long ago the higher paid free agents were veterans over the age of 30.  At the time of the last CBA Clark Griffith had an interesting thought experiment (he knew it wouldn’t ever happen). What would the league look like if every player received immediate free agency but could only sign one year contracts?  This would most accurately reflect the true value of players. Generally 25 - 27 year old studs would be getting the big money but many arbitration eligible players would get less. Trevor Larnach is going to get $5 million next year; the Twins can pay him or cut him. My guess is his value on the open market is $3 million or 40% less than arbitration. 

[Riverbrian]

58 minutes ago, ashbury said:

This amounts to nitpicking to the nth degree but I don't know whether the CBA says that.  Article VI begins, "Individual Player salaries shall be those as agreed upon between a Player and a Club...." (my emphasis) and then it states what the minimum salaries are to be (increasing each season) and when arbitration becomes available (3 years as you say).  It goes into infinite detail about what happens in split major/minor seasons, and meal money, and so forth.  But I don't see where it says plainly that you can't "agree upon" more than the minimum.

Indeed, b-r.com shows Royce Lewis being paid $745,000 in 2024.  The CBA minimum for that season was $740,000.

I somehow find this very interesting, even if totally unimportant.  How in h-e-double-toothpicks did Lewis pick up an extra $5,000 from the Pohlads???  In his shoes, part of me would want to say, "keep your pity money, I'll get paid later in ways that will dwarf this pittance."  The other part would want to crow, "look at me! I got SOMETHING."

But more importantly, what dark magic does Scott Boras use to pry a few dollars from the Pohlads' cold spectral clutches?  And why does he waste it to get a mere $5K?  (I know, I know: it's to show everyone he CAN. 

Maybe most importantly, it seems to me that the players' association had to know this form of collusion among owners ("I don't have to pay you a penny more than the minimum, that's my 'negotiation' for you") would occur given the wording of the CBA, and chose not to include wording that either sanctifies the practice or somehow forbids it.

I didn't know that about Royce and the mystery extra 5 grand. Interesting. 

You can always agree to more money between the club and player. Roman Anthony being a recent prime example. Roman will average 16 million for the next 8 years. Starting at 2 million this year and increasing upward year over year. Roman gets the security in his early days against injuries... doesn't have to go through arbitration. In return the Red Sox will have bought up potentially 3 years of Free Agency. Assuming he never sees the minors again. 

Typically clubs will just pay these players the minimum and don't entertain the thought of an agreement unless they feel the player will be worth buying out a year of two of free agency. 

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, Linus said:

Interesting conversation. What’s really a head scratcher is that not that long ago the higher paid free agents were veterans over the age of 30.  At the time of the last CBA Clark Griffith had an interesting thought experiment (he knew it wouldn’t ever happen). What would the league look like if every player received immediate free agency but could only sign one year contracts?  This would most accurately reflect the true value of players. Generally 25 - 27 year old studs would be getting the big money but many arbitration eligible players would get less. Trevor Larnach is going to get $5 million next year; the Twins can pay him or cut him. My guess is his value on the open market is $3 million or 40% less than arbitration. 

Love this post. It's additional food for thought. True Free Agency... One Year Deals max. The roster turnover would be jaw dropping and the AAV would go through the roof.  

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

which is to say that the much maligned Baseball Trade Values website uses exactly this observation as part of its basic approach

That's what I appreciated about BBTV. Trades are going to be eye of the beholder but it was never maligned by me. 

Ultimately... Years of Control along with performance will determine value. 

Out of curiosity. I've been cheap... actually too lazy to find my credit card and pay for access to BBTV since they decided to try and make money. 

Who is the most valuable player in baseball right now according to BBTV on September 19, 2025? 

Skenes? Anthony?  

I don't know if you are a subscriber. Maybe someone else is. 

 

 

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That's what I appreciated about BBTV. Trades are going to be eye of the beholder but it was never maligned by me. 

Ultimately... Years of Control along with performance will determine value. 

Out of curiosity. I've been cheap... actually too lazy to find my credit card and pay for access to BBTV since they decided to try and make money. 

Who is the most valuable player in baseball right now according to BBTV on September 19, 2025? 

Skenes? Anthony?  

I don't know if you are a subscriber. Maybe someone else is. 

 

 

Yeah, you'll have to ask someone else.  I'm a cheapskate too.  Maybe we can stage a Cheapskate Olympics.  Run a series of cheap-offs.

[Riverbrian]

25 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Yeah, you'll have to ask someone else.  I'm a cheapskate too.  Maybe we can stage a Cheapskate Olympics.  Run a series of cheap-offs.

OK... As long as we don't let my wife in. 

She won't let me leave a penny in the "Take a Penny" spot at a convenience store. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 9/19/2025 at 3:41 PM, Riverbrian said:

OK... As long as we don't let my wife in. 

She won't let me leave a penny in the "Take a Penny" spot at a convenience store. 

You don’t empty it at every stop you make?