How Rocco Baldelli and the Twins Plan “Something Drastic” On the Bases

[The Great Hambino]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You make good points, but you lose me here.

I bet I can find 1 million* articles by the saber crowd that will argue strategy based on run expectancy charts. 1 billion articles damning sac bunting no matter the situation. 15 years ago everyone worshipped at the alter of OBP. The goal is "dont make outs." SLG is overrated. It was literally the whole point of Moneyball. Today? "Swing hard, baby!"

There are rigid Dogmatists on both sides.

 

*If I've told you once, I've told you a zillion times, dont exaggerate.

Strategy based on run expectancy charts =/= strategy with strict adherance to run expectancy charts without any adjustment for the situation.  Even the Twins have sent someone other than Buxton on a stolen base attempt, or attempted a sac bunt on occasion.

I don't need a million articles, but you could start with one.  And I'd be willing to bet that it's second-hand blogger commentary, not original research or a quote from someone in an actual decision-making position with an MLB team.

Edited to add: I see you added the bit about questioning the Twins methods after I quoted you, you sly devil.  I agree that the Twins likely don't apply sabermetrics as effectively as others do.  To me, it's more that they lose the forest for the trees in applying concepts to specific matchups without a broader view of how it affects the rest of the game than it is applying concepts in a blanket fashion, but that's getting pretty deep into the weeds.  Doesn't mean that they should throw the baby out with the bathwater in ditching sabermetrics entirely, which is the argument I'm ultimately pushing back against

 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

 

If that's what you took away from what I wrote, then I don't know what to tell you.

I even used the phrase "And since sabermetrics is a tool, some teams will use it better or worse than others"

If you're going to respond to someone, try actually reading what you're responding to first.  

Agreed!  "Analytics as a philosophy" is how you get to a point where 8 years into his tenure it finally occurs to Rocco that baserunning is a component of baseball and a strategy/tactic at his disposal.

[wornsmooth]

At some point when I followed baseball closely I conclude the two most important ( non fielding) stats for rating a player was RBI's and runs scored. After going many years of not following the sport I came back post retirement to a host of statistics I hadn't heard of. While each stat has its place, and each stat has context, I have slowly come back to my conclusions of 55+ years ago. The point, when not in the field, is to score runs. Smart baserunning is a huge part of that. 

That said, the manager has some influence. Why does the teams leading homerun hitter bat leadoff? (Yeah, I know he's fast) Coupling the next question to the question of what ever happened to the hit and run....why does the teams best bat contact man not bat immediately following the guy with speed most likely to get on base? (Lee should hit right behind Keaschal)

Aggressive and smart baserunning scores runs. 

Ok. Enough for now. Gotta go yell at some clouds or something.

 

 

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm really happy to hear this.....but this shouldn't start with 25 year olds in the majors.

This begins the moment they hit your minor league system. It might even begin before that when you scout players for their acumen running bases.

We heard Brooks Lee had a great mind for the game, but a few years in our minor leagues appears to have wiped this from his brain.  This strategy shift should be organizational.

[AlGoreRythm]

6 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

You have got to be kidding me.

This is not the argument of sabermetrics.  This has never been the argument of sabermetrics.  This is an extreme bastardization of the argument parroted around the internet by those that just have never even made an attempt to understand it because it goes against what their little league coach taught them in 1972.  You will not find a single article from an actual sabermatrician that says you should try to hit home runs with every swing or never attempt to steal a base.

Regarding stolen bases, the argument is there is an optimal success rate in any given situation to make the attempt worth the risk of making an out and removing the runner from the basepaths.  It does not say to apply this evenly across all situations without considering the variables at hand.  If a team did this, they would be using sabermetrics incorrectly.  And since sabermetrics is a tool, some teams will use it better or worse than others.  The idea that it has created some inflexible blanket strategy is pretty easily shot down by the fact that teams - all of which use sabermetrics (except maybe the Rockies) - still have fairly significant differences in things like stolen base rates and bunt attempts.

This idea that our pure game of baseball went unchanged for 150 years until those dastardly nerds got their hands on it needs to die.  Pick a statistic - home runs, stolen bases, whatever - their rates have ebbed and flowed throughout the game's history.  Did the sabermatricians cause stolen base rates to crater in the 1930's?

Yep.  100%.  Not sure what any of this has to do with sabermetrics since they don't say to apply the average expected outcome at all times.

Have you considered the possibility that perhaps you have a misunderstanding of sabermetrics?

I was going to reply to Woof, but you've said it much better than I could.

[AlGoreRythm]

4 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Agreed!  "Analytics as a philosophy" is how you get to a point where 8 years into his tenure it finally occurs to Rocco that baserunning is a component of baseball and a strategy/tactic at his disposal.

I don't think anyone has argued Rocco or the Twins system is the best at analyzing or utilizing sabremetrics...

You originally asked "What changed?" Got a response from me of "rules around base stealing" and then went off on an anti-sabremetrics rant lol

[AlGoreRythm]

On 8/27/2025 at 2:37 PM, wornsmooth said:

At some point when I followed baseball closely I conclude the two most important ( non fielding) stats for rating a player was RBI's and runs scored. After going many years of not following the sport I came back post retirement to a host of statistics I hadn't heard of. While each stat has its place, and each stat has context, I have slowly come back to my conclusions of 55+ years ago. The point, when not in the field, is to score runs. Smart baserunning is a huge part of that. 

That said, the manager has some influence. Why does the teams leading homerun hitter bat leadoff? (Yeah, I know he's fast) Coupling the next question to the question of what ever happened to the hit and run....why does the teams best bat contact man not bat immediately following the guy with speed most likely to get on base? (Lee should hit right behind Keaschal)

Aggressive and smart baserunning scores runs. 

Ok. Enough for now. Gotta go yell at some clouds or something.

 

 

 

 

 

I think the reason Buxton often leads off is to get him more at bats, not necessarily because he's fast, though it's certainly a plus.

[NotAboutWinning]

It seems as though Baldelli has attended the Pohlad School of Public Speaking. Talking in circles, contradicting the obvious, and generally sounding clueless.

[Woof Bronzer]

16 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

I don't think anyone has argued Rocco or the Twins system is the best at analyzing or utilizing sabremetrics...

You originally asked "What changed?" Got a response from me of "rules around base stealing" and then went off on an anti-sabremetrics rant lol

I assume you are referring to the rule change about running through 2nd base...or maybe widening the 1st base runners lane....not finding any other recent rule changes.  You are saying these rule changes unlocked baserunning and base stealing as a viable strategy?  That for the previous 150 years teams were hesitant to run the bases aggressively due to these rules?  Interesting take but the data doesn't support that...

[T.O.]

On 8/26/2025 at 6:18 PM, Reptevia said:

What I came on here to say.   Are they finally coming to the conclusion that there is something really wrong with the underlying data?

Naw, that would be admitting mistake.
They just made the biggest discovery of the century. They are genuses. 

[T.O.]

On 8/27/2025 at 2:37 PM, wornsmooth said:

At some point when I followed baseball closely I conclude the two most important ( non fielding) stats for rating a player was RBI's and runs scored. After going many years of not following the sport I came back post retirement to a host of statistics I hadn't heard of. While each stat has its place, and each stat has context, I have slowly come back to my conclusions of 55+ years ago. The point, when not in the field, is to score runs. Smart baserunning is a huge part of that. 

I'm right there with you including the part about not following baseball for years then coming back. Anything that takes thinking out of the game makes the game more boring.

[AlGoreRythm]

On 8/28/2025 at 9:27 AM, Woof Bronzer said:

I assume you are referring to the rule change about running through 2nd base...or maybe widening the 1st base runners lane....not finding any other recent rule changes.  You are saying these rule changes unlocked baserunning and base stealing as a viable strategy?  That for the previous 150 years teams were hesitant to run the bases aggressively due to these rules?  Interesting take but the data doesn't support that...

Funny how you start arguing a completely different point once we've explained that you're arguing against your own imagination. Just like here, where you start arguing against some idea you imagine I'm positing. You're arguing against straw men you're setting up yourself bud.

They literally made the bases bigger and limited the number of times a pitcher can disengage from the rubber to hold a runner on.

How are you unable to find this information? How are you watching baseball for years without realizing any of this? The broadcasters mentioned it like every game multiple times a game that first season like 2-3 years ago lol

Woof, it says you joined Twins Daily in March 2023. That's the year they made multiple rule changes to encourage more base stealing.

How are you ignorant of these changes and how can you not find this info on the internet? Are you watching the games? Listening to them? Not watching but just posting complaints after looking at the box scores in the paper?

I need to understand how you can simultaneously have such strong opinions, have so little of the information one would want to come to an informed opinion, and be so inept at finding basic information on the internet regarding the subject you're forming your opinion on...

On an unrelated note, you don't happen to watch Fox News do you?

[Woof Bronzer]

On 9/1/2025 at 7:38 AM, AlGoreRythm said:

Funny how you start arguing a completely different point once we've explained that you're arguing against your own imagination. Just like here, where you start arguing against some idea you imagine I'm positing. You're arguing against straw men you're setting up yourself bud.

They literally made the bases bigger and limited the number of times a pitcher can disengage from the rubber to hold a runner on.

How are you unable to find this information? How are you watching baseball for years without realizing any of this? The broadcasters mentioned it like every game multiple times a game that first season like 2-3 years ago lol

Woof, it says you joined Twins Daily in March 2023. That's the year they made multiple rule changes to encourage more base stealing.

How are you ignorant of these changes and how can you not find this info on the internet? Are you watching the games? Listening to them? Not watching but just posting complaints after looking at the box scores in the paper?

I need to understand how you can simultaneously have such strong opinions, have so little of the information one would want to come to an informed opinion, and be so inept at finding basic information on the internet regarding the subject you're forming your opinion on...

On an unrelated note, you don't happen to watch Fox News do you?

Wow you sound like a pleasant person. I hope the rant made you feel better, but you don't really state any facts or useful information whatsoever, other than that you seem to have some anger issues you may want to work through.  In fact it seems to me that for all your baseball genius you don't understand the difference between baserunning and base stealing. And you didn't address my point that teams didn't invent base stealing in 2023.  Why, in your godlike brilliance, do you think that plenty of teams decided to steal bases prior to that?  For example, the As stole 341 bases in 1976.   What was the size of the base, O Holy One?  And why, milord, would the As choose to do this?      

[AlGoreRythm]

21 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Wow you sound like a pleasant person. I hope the rant made you feel better, but you don't really state any facts or useful information whatsoever, other than that you seem to have some anger issues you may want to work through.  In fact it seems to me that for all your baseball genius you don't understand the difference between baserunning and base stealing. And you didn't address my point that teams didn't invent base stealing in 2023.  Why, in your godlike brilliance, do you think that plenty of teams decided to steal bases prior to that?  For example, the As stole 341 bases in 1976.   What was the size of the base, O Holy One?  And why, milord, would the As choose to do this?      

I'm not here to make friends, but no one's mad unless you are lol

I'm simply blown away by your inability to locate the most basic information regarding what you comment about.

You don't seem to actually be watching the games, just posting half informed opinions based around the idea that things were vaguely better before.

I'm more interested in you than I am base stealing at this point. You've been, at best, half right and half informed throughout this thread, confidently telling others they must answer your points without admitting you're not fully informed on points such as the latest rule changes that affect the exact point you're trying to make. 

Didn't know something? Blow right past it and change the subject by demanding someone answer a different question or point lol

Do people often just stare at you with a bewildered look on their face?

[Woof Bronzer]

1 minute ago, AlGoreRythm said:

I'm not here to make friends, but no one's mad unless you are lol

I'm simply blown away by your inability to locate the most basic information regarding what you comment about.

You don't seem to actually be watching the games, just posting half informed opinions based around the idea that things were vaguely better before.

I'm more interested in you than I am base stealing at this point. You've been, at best, half right and half informed throughout this thread, confidently telling others they must answer your points without admitting you're not fully informed on points such as the latest rule changes that affect the exact point you're trying to make. 

Didn't know something? Blow right past it and change the subject by demanding someone answer a different question or point lol

Do people often just stare at you with a bewildered look on their face?

Haha more ranting and abuse.  You sound like a Trump cabinet member.

Whatever went wrong in your life, to make you spend your time belittling internet strangers - I hope you find peace and happiness someday.  Free bit of advice - maybe instead of working through your anger issues online, try doing so in a therapist's office.  There are resources out there and therapy can help.  Peace and be well.