Reusse: Extending Morneau might be better than a trade

[Brock Beauchamp]

Parmelee's OPS is just .009 below Justin now. It's getting harder to justify any kind of contract to Morneau if Chris continues to improve.

[jorgenswest]

Parmelee's OPS is just .009 below Justin now. It's getting harder to justify any kind of contract to Morneau if Chris continues to improve.

 

Does that mean you would trade Morneau and take the best offer?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Does that mean you would trade Morneau and take the best offer?

 

Ooh. Tough call. I don't know if I have enough faith in Parmelee to bet everything on him... But plenty of league average first basemen are available every offseason.

 

So I'm going to say yes, trade him.

[Kwak]

One should consider that if Morneau is not retained that Parmalee is at least as likely to remain in RF as he is to be a 1B. I think that 1B by committee is also a possibility. My point: the discussion should not be Morneau or Parmalee. The criteria to use for retaining Morneau should be what is more valuable to the Twins: Morneau at whatever price; put said money into other players and fill 1B from within the franchise (including minor leaguers); put money saved into Pohlad's pocket. I vote for option #2, but am expecting option #3.

[SpitefulRabbit617]

Who cares? I KNOW Moreneau is a gymnast defensively but honestly, move Parm/Colabello to 1b, open up the spot on the roster for someone younger and move on. Morneau is my favorite player as noted by my number 27 jersey for him but people need to just move on. People will whine either way.

[greengoblinrulz]

Morneau becomes a 10 & 5 guy IF MN resigns him 4 days into the 2014 season.

Do you want to hamstring yourself by giving him this option.

[amjgt]

Reusse changed his tune from a few days ago when he was all for a 3/30 extension. [vomit]

 

I'm good with 2/14, but anything more than that feels like a gigantic "home town" premium.

 

What's Napoli going to get in the offseason? It has to be less than people have been throwing around for Morneau offers. I'm not saying sign Napoli, but I can't remember the last year that Morneau outperformed Napoli.

 

My desire to let Morneau walk and bank on Parmelee or Plouffe is predicated on us using some new-found "cap" room on a top-flight FA starting pitcher. Could we get Hughes for 4/48?

[kab21]

Back to the topic...

 

I did not see any posts agreeing with Mr. Reusse that the Twins should offer a 2/10 per year contract. There is not reason for Morneau to do a team friendly extension during the season. In his mind, he has to believe the power will come back at some level in the second half.

 

There are plenty in this thread that think 2/20 or the 1/14 qualifying offer is reasonable. I'm not against having Morneau on the team next year but it should be on the Twins terms since he hasn't been good for awhile. I also wouldn't mind seeing if Parmelee and/or Colabello are real MLB'ers. That's tough to do with Willingham (won't be traded for awhile now), Morneau and Doumit on the team. Not to mention that Buxton could be coming up next year. And Plouffe needs to play somewhere when Sano comes up. Vargas could even be an option at some point.

 

There are just too many 1B/DH/OF bats to sign a guy simply because the Twins won't spend the money elsewhere.

[jorgenswest]

Morneau becomes a 10 & 5 guy IF MN resigns him 4 days into the 2014 season.

Do you want to hamstring yourself by giving him this option.

 

More reason not to extend him.

 

I think I would keep him the rest of this year and make a qualifying offer if he surpasses 2 WAR for the year.

 

Of course, any one would trade him for a good prospect.

 

The original premise was no easy decision for Ryan.

 

Extend at 2/20

Dump for marginal prospects

Do nothing now keeping open the option of making a qualifying offer.

 

I have seen responses on all sides. Not an easy decision that is guaranteed to draw criticism.

[Kwak]

Hmm, maybe this can simplify matters: Justin Morneau or upgrade in starting pitching?

 

Cast your vote. Me, upgrade in starting pitching.

[ThePuck]

Hmm, maybe this can simplify matters: Justin Morneau or upgrade in starting pitching?

 

Cast your vote. Me, upgrade in starting pitching.

 

There is zero guarantees that an upgrade of pitching would be addressed if Morny wasn't resigned.

[Oxtung]

Parmelee has actually been hitting the ball really well over the last month and a half. In his last 38 games (May 23) he is hitting .277/.365/.495/.860. He has a 14BB/19K's which is real nice rate. I don't know that he can continue that going forward but he has shown a real nice string of games recently and I think he deserves some recognition.

 

If he keeps hitting well over the next month I think trading Morneau becomes much easier to do.

[kab21]

 

I have seen responses on all sides. Not an easy decision that is guaranteed to draw criticism.

 

So far the only arguments for extending him at 2/20 (or give him a qualifying offer) are because his name is Justin Morneau and the Twins won't spend the saved money elsewhere. I think this is a poor way to run a team. The Twins are stacked with guys that play OF/DH/1B with more coming up next year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Morneau is my favorite player, so I'm a bit more tied into him than most. He's not going to bring back what we had hoped he would this year, though his play of late has been good enough that he may bring back more than nothing...

 

I'd be fine keeping him around another year so long as the Twins can find a way to keep giving Parmelee playing time, but that means Doumit or Willingham gets traded, or Morneau is signed with the knowledge that he won't be a consistent starter. As a fan, seeing him retire in a Twins uni would be nice too. I'm not sure I agree that nostalgic signs are a horrible way to run a team. You have to keep fans in the seats, and fans like Morneau. Next year is going to be a year of promise, and likely a .500 bid, but not playoffs. 2015 is going to be a different story. The question would be if Morneau would be better served in Thome type role for the next wave or playing as a starter somewhere else...

 

Also of note, people mention that that resigning him kicks in his 10/5 rights. This is true for any team that signs him.

[snepp]

Also of note, people mention that that resigning him kicks in his 10/5 rights. This is true for any team that signs him.

 

Last 5 years with the same team. If he signs with someone else 10-5 goes away.

[jorgenswest]

So far the only arguments for extending him at 2/20 (or give him a qualifying offer) are because his name is Justin Morneau and the Twins won't spend the saved money elsewhere. I think this is a poor way to run a team. The Twins are stacked with guys that play OF/DH/1B with more coming up next year.

 

I don't read their responses the same way. I sure don't read Reusse's column this way. The reality is 2/20 doesn't buy much in free agency. USAChief questions whether the Twins would spend that money in a better way. No one signed for those exact terms last year. Maybe a Cody Ross at 3/26 was a comp.

[Guest USAFChief]

So far the only arguments for extending him at 2/20 (or give him a qualifying offer) are because his name is Justin Morneau and the Twins won't spend the saved money elsewhere. I think this is a poor way to run a team. The Twins are stacked with guys that play OF/DH/1B with more coming up next year.

 

My argument is, I don't think the Twins have a better option at first base over the next couple years.

 

Morneau was, at one time, one of the best hitters in the American League. He's had a rough go for 3 years now, I get that. But good hitters don't suddenly lose all of their ability to hit. I'm not convinced Morneau won't ever return to being a damn good middle of the order hitter. Maybe he won't. Maybe he'll get injured again. But maybe he will.

 

Chris Parmelee isn't ever going to be as good as Morneau was. I'd bet a lot of money on that. Useful player? Sure. The kind of hitter you build around? No chance, IMO.

 

2/20 does almost nothing to limit the Twins options going forward. Having Morneau around sounds a lot better to me than whatever he'll bring in trade, and sounds better to me than ownership pocketing the money, to boot.

 

And for the record, while the Twins may be "stacked with guys that play OF/DH/1B with more coming up," I disagree that they're "stacked" with guys that can do so on a 95 win team. Morneau was once that guy. He's not that old. I'd gamble on him before I staked the future on the guys that have never proven anything.

[kab21]

Chris Parmelee isn't ever going to be as good as Morneau was. I'd bet a lot of money on that. Useful player? Sure. The kind of hitter you build around? No chance, IMO.

 

Let me help you with this.

 

Justin Morneau is never going to be as good as Justin Morneau was. I'd bet a lot of money on that. Useful player? Sure. The kind of hitter you sign for 10+M/yr? No chance, IMO.

 

I think you should be holding Morneau to the same standard as you hold the other hitters. I like Morneau a lot. There's also a chance that he could rebound but how many years do you wait?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let me help you with this.

 

Justin Morneau is never going to be as good as Justin Morneau was. I'd bet a lot of money on that. Useful player? Sure. The kind of hitter you sign for 10+M/yr? No chance, IMO.

 

I think you should be holding Morneau to the same standard as you hold the other hitters. I like Morneau a lot. There's also a chance that he could rebound but how many years do you wait?

 

This. Justin Morneau has actually regressed in 2013. That's a terrible sign for him going forward. He had an awful 2011. He was much better in 2012, especially in the second half. Going into this season, it wasn't absurd to expect continued progression to above-average hitting. After 250 PAs in 2013, he's not only failing to progress from the second half of last season, he's actually going in the wrong direction.

 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Parmelee finishes the season with an OPS equal or better to Justin. At that point, how on earth do you justify giving Morneau money? I don't care if the Twins have money to spend, that's just dumb baseball management. You don't take playing time from a 25 (26 in 2014) year old player making the league minimum just so you can spend money on a veteran who is no better than the youngster.

[jorgenswest]

Let me help you with this.

 

Justin Morneau is never going to be as good as Justin Morneau was. I'd bet a lot of money on that. Useful player? Sure. The kind of hitter you sign for 10+M/yr? No chance, IMO.

 

I think you should be holding Morneau to the same standard as you hold the other hitters. I like Morneau a lot. There's also a chance that he could rebound but how many years do you wait?

 

Morneau doesn't have to hit like the Morneau of old to be worth 10 million. Similar performance with a few more home runs in the second half will put him there this year.

 

In any case, I would not extend him 2 years. I do think there is a good chance he will be worth that contract. I am hoping the Twins put together a group of players that will improve together towards their primes. I don't want to mix in decline phase players so that any improvement by the younger players is countered by the decline of the older in future years.

[Mike Sixel]

This. Justin Morneau has actually regressed in 2013. That's a terrible sign for him going forward. He had an awful 2011. He was much better in 2012, especially in the second half. Going into this season, it wasn't absurd to expect continued progression to above-average hitting. After 250 PAs in 2013, he's not only failing to progress from the second half of last season, he's actually going in the wrong direction.

 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Parmelee finishes the season with and OPS equal or better to Justin. At that point, how on earth do you justify giving Morneau money? I don't care if the Twins have money to spend, that's just dumb baseball management. You don't take playing time from a 25 (26 in 2014) year old player making the league minimum just so you can spend money on a veteran who is no better than the youngster.

 

big fan of this post. Platoon Parmelee and colaello, use both at RF, DH, first, and pinch hitter. This Justin is not worth having on a bad team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

big fan of this post. Platoon Parmelee and colaello, use both at RF, DH, first, and pinch hitter. This Justin is not worth having on a bad team.

 

Especially when this team is going to start seeing more OF help come from the minors in 2014 and they're already struggling to get Parmelee playing time every day.

 

Hey, Parmelee could fall on his face in the second half and Justin could dominate. Nothing is set in stone but given how this season is playing out, I don't see the point in keeping Justin just for the sake of keeping him.

[Guest USAFChief]

big fan of this post. Platoon Parmelee and colaello, use both at RF, DH, first, and pinch hitter. This Justin is not worth having on a bad team.

I'm not yet convinced this Justin is all he's capable of.

 

Also, the idea going forward is not to have a bad team, no?

[kab21]

Morneau doesn't have to hit like the Morneau of old to be worth 10 million. Similar performance with a few more home runs in the second half will put him there this year.

 

In any case, I would not extend him 2 years. I do think there is a good chance he will be worth that contract. I am hoping the Twins put together a group of players that will improve together towards their primes. I don't want to mix in decline phase players so that any improvement by the younger players is countered by the decline of the older in future years.

 

You didn't really get the sarcasm in that post. Parmelee doesn't have to hit like the Morneau of old either. The Morneau of old is gone forever. It's quite possible that Parmelee can match Morneau's recent/future performance.

[StormJH1]

I'm not yet convinced this Justin is all he's capable of.

 

Also, the idea going forward is not to have a bad team, no?

 

I'm not either, but I am fairly convinced that he can't sustain whatever the best he's capable for more than a week or two at a time. If you look at what's happening to Willingham right now, that's more likely to be the case for Morneau going forward. 2006 (his MVP year) was 7 years ago. In pretty much every year since then, he either struggled or broke down in the last 1/3 of the year. He's had a number of nagging injuries, any one of which could mess up his swing. And the concussion thing is not going away as an issue.

 

I'll admit that trying the one-year qualifying offer thing seems more tempting that I would have thought, but he likely would accept it, and he's just not going to be in the plans going forward. We could probably spend $2 to $6 million and end up with a first baseman (even a right hander!) that has a pretty good chance of producing as much as Morneau would.

[kab21]

I'm not yet convinced this Justin is all he's capable of.

 

I see a lot of warnings issued on here that prospects are not sure things. I think the same is true of injury prone 32 yr old players that haven't been above average for 3 yrs.

[phalvorson]

Maybe this thing will shake out like Rick Aguilera. Aggie was traded in the middle of the 95 season to the BoSox (for Frankie Rodriguez!) and then in the offseason sign as a free agent with the Twins.

Later the Twins traded him and Scott Downs to the Cubs for Kyle Lohse

 

If I'm Terry Ryan, this is the scenario that I hope plays out: Tell Morneau that you're trading him for prospects (or a middle infielder), but you hope he'll consider signing with the Twins at the end of the season when he's a free agent. Morneau has been a team player and will understand TR's need to do this to rebuild the team. This also gives TR a couple of months to have Gardy plug potential 1B replacements (Parmalee, Doumit, Ramirez, Mauer) into the lineup and see if they can outperform what Morneau was giving them. (Maybe Parmalee back at his natural position becomes more at ease at the plate?) Then if the 1B experiment doesn't work out, TR can weigh the production he got from the replacements against what he had been getting from Morneau (pre-trade) and weigh that against the market price for free agent first basemen. Morneau loves the Twins, is best friends with Mauer, and would come back in a heartbeat (and maybe, just maybe with a hometown discount) unless Toronto or someone blew his socks off with an offer he couldn't refuse for his final contract (i.e. 6+ years and over $10M per yr). If I'm the GM, this is how I've got to be thinking right now. After making the trade, I'd even plant the seeds in the press that it was a tough move but we hope he re-signs with the Twins after the season ends. This placates the fans too.

[Willihammer]

Unlike Parmelee, Morneau has proven capable of putting up .900+ OPS production at the MLB level. Maybe those days are over for good, maybe not. I personally would like to see the TWins make a serious pitch to Mike Napoli to fill 1B. He has two .900+ seasons of his own, is still relatively young, bats righthanded, pull hitter, could backup catcher, etc. and isn't as serious of a health risk. I think Parmelee will be on the team in RF again in 2014 though.

[chopper0080]

I would trade him for multiple mid level prospects and move forward. If you don't like what Parmalee and Cabello provide you over the rest of the year, then you can still pursue Justin as a free agent.

 

I get the reasoning behind holding onto Perkins and Correia, but holding onto Morneau and Doumit seems silly at this point. Get what you can and use those at bats to answer some roster questions over the rest of the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Unlike Parmelee, Morneau has proven capable of putting up .900+ OPS production at the MLB level. Maybe those days are over for good, maybe not. I personally would like to see the TWins make a serious pitch to Mike Napoli to fill 1B. He has two .900+ seasons of his own, is still relatively young, bats righthanded, pull hitter, could backup catcher, etc. and isn't as serious of a health risk. I think Parmelee will be on the team in RF again in 2014 though.

 

Trading Doumit and pursuing Napoli would be a great move for 2014.

 

I don't really care who plays first in 2014 but the Twins should be thinking "cheap" or "better", not "stick with what we got".