Week in Review: Bucking Into The Break

[Nick Nelson]

9 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Nick... you are essentially advocating for prolonged mediocrity.... which for me is the worst place to be in sports. 

Keep everyone under 26 and controllable SP. Trade the rest and build toward being great in 2027-8. 

The second half of this season and next can be like the 1984-1986 Twins.... getting young talent experience and seeing what we have and what we need. 

We do not need to cling to elite bullpen arms until 2027..... 

Ownership would love this plan. Why spend money and try to compete when you can be cheap and suck?!

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

BTW, Twins' odds to make the postseason are 23% per FanGraphs and I'm buying on that estimate over whatever you're putting forth. It's a good team with an elite bullpen, about to get Pablo and Zebby and Keaschall back.

<10% is baseball reference. Their 90% confidence interval is 73 to 86 wins and a median projection of 80-82.

2025 Major League Baseball Playoff Odds | Baseball-Reference.com

It's a mediocre team with a below average offense, about to have someone else get injured (someone always gets injured) and miss part of the season.

[NYCTK]

10 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

It's a good team with an elite bullpen, about to get Pablo and Zebby and Keaschall back.

This "elite" bullpen is 21st in the league in WPA. I tend to look more towards FIP/xFIP which is what you're doing but results matter too, especially considering we're halfway through the season. 

And as much as I like Keaschall going forward, Twins fans have to hit the breaks expecting a kid that didn't even have an 850 OPS at either AA or AAA to save the offense based on a week of results in the big leagues. He's more likely to look like a more athletic Brooks Lee than he is a sudden boost to a struggling offense. 

 

[Nick Nelson]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

<10% is baseball reference. Their 90% confidence interval is 73 to 86 wins and a median projection of 80-82.

2025 Major League Baseball Playoff Odds | Baseball-Reference.com

It's a mediocre team with a below average offense, about to have someone else get injured (someone always gets injured) and miss part of the season.

Yeah. I'm taking the FG projection over BR because I trust the system more. Also maybe it's just me but I'm really bored with treating these playoff projections as gospel. We've all seen how much they can change in a matter of days. 

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This "elite" bullpen is 21st in the league in WPA. I tend to look more towards FIP/xFIP which is what you're doing but results matter too, especially considering we're halfway through the season. 

And as much as I like Keaschall going forward, Twins fans have to hit the breaks expecting a kid that didn't even have an 850 OPS at either AA or AAA to save the offense based on a week of results in the big leagues. He's more likely to look like a more athletic Brooks Lee than he is a sudden boost to a struggling offense. 

 

Less concerned with what they've done vs what they will do, and I think WAR (in which Twins RP lead MLB) is better for that purpose than WPA. We saw what this bullpen can do over the past week, as highlighted in the column.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Less concerned with what they've done vs what they will do, and I think WAR (in which Twins RP lead MLB) is better for that purpose than WPA. We saw what this bullpen can do over the past week, as highlighted in the column.

We've been hearing for two years now about how elite the bullpen is. At what point is the responsibility on them to show it? 

 

[D.C Twins]

10 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Okay. Then what's your plan with these guys? 

1. Correa: Trade him for salary dump alone if possible (probably not); if not squeeze as much as possible out of the next 2 years with 3rd year a possible dump if he has become an albatross at that point. 

2. Lewis: Not part of future plans except maybe 1st base or DH when available (perhaps available more often if 1B/DH). Ride out arbitrary years if reasonable... if not trade or let him go.... let him bolt when a FA. 

[D.C Twins]

On 7/14/2025 at 12:15 PM, Nick Nelson said:

The primary value of these moves would be saving money for ownership. FYI. What "kids" are currently being held back who deserve playing time?

I of course would like the ownership stockpile younger controllable talent so that we have the money available to fill in the holes around them when we find out where they are.

I would play Julian, Miranda, ERod, Keaschall, Martin, and hell even Sabato for an extended period of time the rest of the year. By the end, lets figure out what we have. Let's at least get some questions answered. 

I'd rather see the younger pitchers pitching than Paddack... Trade him if there is value

Let's see Raya and others in the MiLB in the bullpen this year after trading Duran and Jax for value. 

To be clear.... this will probably make us worse THIS year.... but mediocrity means nothing to me personally so I'd rather do the above. 

[Mike Sixel]

On 7/14/2025 at 8:26 AM, Nick Nelson said:

lol I really don't understand why y'all are so eager to give up on the season. Genuinely. Is selling off expiring contracts for middling prospects actually exciting or interesting to you? Is it worth the message it sends to all players and fans?

Selling France or just DFA is giving up the season? What message, that we are going to give guys with upside a chance and not go with bad veterans? 

[Mike Sixel]

The next time you say something positive about Lee might be the first. They really should just give up on young guys right away ....

[Mike Sixel]

On 7/14/2025 at 1:58 PM, Nick Nelson said:

This entire post greatly exaggerates the impact of ownership on a baseball team's outcomes. Cleveland has the most miserly, cheap, opportunity-restrictive owner in the universe and they went to the ALCS last year. I'm sorry but it's just a scapegoating cop-out at this point.

And again, let's be very clear: the single biggest source of the Twins' problems right now is the very player that was by far the biggest and boldest and most ambitious splash this ownership group has made in its decades of existence.

I don't think the Twins will buy at the deadline. I don't think they will sell. I think they will do basically nothing and I think they can have a very successful season in spite of it. 

Cleveland trades guys early and gives youth a shot.... They don't stick with France all year. 

[Mike Sixel]

What's your plan, Nick? Just stick with the team that's likely to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years?

[RpR]

3 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I of course would like the ownership stockpile younger controllable talent so that we have the money available to fill in the holes around them when we find out where they are.

I would play Julian, Miranda, ERod, Keaschall, Martin, and hell even Sabato for an extended period of time the rest of the year. By the end, lets figure out what we have. Let's at least get some questions answered. 

I'd rather see the younger pitchers pitching than Paddack... Trade him if there is value

Let's see Raya and others in the MiLB in the bullpen this year after trading Duran and Jax for value. 

To be clear.... this will probably make us worse THIS year.... but mediocrity means nothing to me personally so I'd rather do the above. 

Wow, a 100 loss team will fill the stands - LOL.

New name, the Minnesota Generals.

[P Meyer]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Selling France or just DFA is giving up the season? What message, that we are going to give guys with upside a chance and not go with bad veterans? 

I agree that moving on from France is not tossing away the season. These are the low cost players you sign in the offseason to hopefully contribute and if they don't pan out, just move on.

 

Columbe and Castro are also UFA at the end of the year. Why not move them if you can get something meaningful for them? They are a little different than France despite also being UFAs.

 

Dumping Correa for nothing is about gaining financial flexibility and realizing he was signed under a different payroll philosophy. 

 

Moving on from players like Joe Ryan, Duran, Jax, or whomever else is about selling high, not selling to sell. 

 

It seems like all of these players tend to get wrapped up into same "selling" convo despite having very different reasons the organization would move them. 

[TheLeviathan]

On 7/15/2025 at 6:06 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What's your plan, Nick? Just stick with the team that's likely to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years?

Apparently.....yes.  That's "exciting" from what I understand.