Josh Willingham will have knee scoped

[TheLeviathan]

There was a fair amount of risk with trading for Willingham and if I was a GM, I certainly wouldn't have offered much for him. Would you?

 

No, but by that standard I can't explain somewhere around 70% of the trades that happen in MLB.

 

I understand your perspective, I just tend to believe we held too high of value on him. I think he could've fetched a B level spec, but I don't think Ryan would've taken that deal. Obviously, neither of us know for sure, but I'd err on the side of dealing him last year simply so we didn't have him blocking anyone now or next year.

 

As annoying as it's been to see Parms on the bench lately, imagine how we'll feel next year doing the same thing again. It feels like spinning our wheels when we should be moving forward.

[Nick Nelson]

People play through injuries all the time, on the Twins and on every other team. Do we have to search for someone to blame every time it occurs?

 

Willingham is an aging player with a lengthy history of injuries. This kind of stuff just happens. It's part of the reason he didn't draw a ton of interest in FA, and also part of the reason his trade value was never as high as some would like to think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No, but by that standard I can't explain somewhere around 70% of the trades that happen in MLB.

 

I understand your perspective, I just tend to believe we held too high of value on him. I think he could've fetched a B level spec, but I don't think Ryan would've taken that deal. Obviously, neither of us know for sure, but I'd err on the side of dealing him last year simply so we didn't have him blocking anyone now or next year.

 

As annoying as it's been to see Parms on the bench lately, imagine how we'll feel next year doing the same thing again. It feels like spinning our wheels when we should be moving forward.

 

Hey, I would have loved to see Willingham traded last July but I think there were some really good reasons not to trade him given the market at the time.

 

He was over 30, had 2 1/2 years on his contract, and was in the middle of a career season. At that point, JR had some tough decisions to make. If the offer is too low, you don't just offload Willingham for junk because he is a valuable player and this team certainly doesn't need salary relief.

 

If the offers are crap compared to the value he brings the Twins, you keep the guy and try again later in hopes that the market will come around on him as a player. Ryan did it with Span and it worked out pretty well for the Twins. It's hard to believe that he wasn't hoping for the same result from Willingham but injuries have caused his value to plummet.

 

So, the question I would ask myself is "Was risking Willingham's health from July 2012 to July 2013 worth the (inference by me) difference between a C-level and D-level prospect in hopes that a healthy 2013 and one less year of a contract will help deliver a B-to-B+ prospect?"

 

And the answer to that question is "hell yes".

 

I know that if I was a GM, no way in hell would I have offered a B-level prospect for 2012 Josh Willingham. And if I won't make a deal, I certainly won't assume that other GMs out there, who have far more information than myself, would offer more than that. It's a bit presumptuous to assume that other GMs are kinda slow and can't see what is pretty obvious to everyone with a brain, and that is "Josh Willingham is incredibly unlikely to repeat the first half of 2012 and has 30 months left on his contract".

[stringer bell]

I understand your point and I agree with it but I have to admit that banging on the payroll drum is getting a little tired, jokin. It doesn't need to be brought up in every thread that involves a Twins player.

 

No matter whether the Twins spent that extra money or not, Willingham is younger and has offered more production than Cuddyer has in Colorado. Money aspects aside, that means it was a good, smart acquisition by Ryan.

 

 

 

You're making the assumption that Ryan was offered something of real value for Willingham. It's possible he was. It's also possible that he wasn't. Ryan did not hesitate to trade two outfielders this offseason. It stands to reason that had he received a quality offer on the third, he would have made that deal in a heartbeat.

 

I think it's pretty clear that Occam's Razor applies to Willingham. Ryan traded Denard Span, a very good outfielder because it brought back Alex Meyer. He then traded his only other centerfielder, Ben Revere, because it brought back Trevor May and Vance Worley. It's unlikely that Ryan so prized Josh Willingham that he refused to trade him while his two younger centerfielders were completely expendable.

Small quibble with you Brock. Hammer is a month older than Cuddy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Small quibble with you Brock. Hammer is a month older than Cuddy.

 

Really? I could have sworn Cuddy was a year older. Hrmph.

 

Instead of admitting that I was mistaken, I'm going to accuse Michael Cuddyer of actually being from the Dominican and lying on his birth certificate.

 

There you go. I am the first Michael Cuddyer Birther. The line queues up behind me. Don't be the last one on the bandwagon.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've said this in other threads, but part of what makes Ryan a good trader is his ability to say no. That is something Smith never did, and it showed. That's how a Ramos-Capps or Hardy-crap deal is made. Other GMs figured that out and stopped offering Smith anything of value.

 

There are certain players that I think get traded regardless of what they get back (Pelfrey comes to mind on this one), but with some guys, you need to bring back value. I'm with Brock on this, Ryan has shown that he will execute a trade if gets what he feels is good value. I have no doubt he would have done that with Willingham if someone had offered an Alex Meyer type propspect for him. That said, there was no MLBTR rumors indicating such offers were availalbe, just as there were no actual trades made that indicated he had that value.

[John Bonnes]

People play through injuries all the time, on the Twins and on every other team. Do we have to search for someone to blame every time it occurs?

 

Willingham is an aging player with a lengthy history of injuries. This kind of stuff just happens. It's part of the reason he didn't draw a ton of interest in FA, and also part of the reason his trade value was never as high as some would like to think.

 

And people go on the DL all the time, too. It's not a personal failing. It shouldn't be treated as such.

 

For the record - I'm not blaming Willingham for trying to tough it out. I'm blaming the organization for not stepping in at some point. And I don't necessarily mean at the first tweak. But at some point, when they realize the meniscus is torn, or that it keeps getting worse or when Arcia is called up and the roster gets crowded, the org needs to say that for the good of the organization/team, they need to get him on the DL. Or even a week off. Or just get him out of the cleanup spot.

 

I just don't think this a leg injury suffered in April is going to get worse when you play on it every day. And even if you think it won't, when it does keep getting worse, that you change paths.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have no doubt he would have done that with Willingham if someone had offered an Alex Meyer type propspect for him.

 

I don't think it would have taken that much to pry Willingham from the Twins. Alex Meyer is a good haul in return for almost any player.

 

If I was a GM, I wouldn't have offered JO Berrios for 2012 Josh Willingham. Too much contract, too much risk for regression.

 

And if you can't get good (not great) upside low minors guys for Willingham, you just hold off and take your chances.

[johnnydakota]

Yes. Without a doubt.

 

2012-13 Salary:

Cuddyer: $21m

Willingham: $14m

 

2012-13 WAR:

Cuddyer: 1.9

Willingham: 3.6

 

That swap was and is a no-brainer. Great move by the Twins and the type of move they should be making eleven out of ten times.

 

I said it at the end of last season and it still stands: Willingham came close to earning all $21m of his contract last season. He was an extremely valuable player, especially on the Twins, who always seem to need a potent RH bat. Any production he provides in 2013 and 2014 is just icing on his cake of a 2012 season.

 

 

Wrong answer, ignore , abort, try again!!!!!! You take a classic DH and make him your starting outfielder, on a pitch to contact team....Not a smart move .

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wrong answer, ignore , abort, try again!!!!!! You take a classic DH and make him your starting outfielder, on a pitch to contact team....Not a smart move .

 

Yes, because we all know how Cuddyer was a defensive ninja out there in right field.

[kab21]

In reality though none of us know what was or would have been offered but I remember several that flat out wouldn't have traded Willingham last offseason for a myriad of reasons. And those same people insisted that he wasn't injury prone. The injury doesn't bother me much right now since it guarantees Parmelee full time AB's and might get Colabello some part time AB's.

 

Willingham is a nice bat to have in the org next year but it's possible that the Twins could have gotten a decent prospect if they had shopped him harder. I think the Twins focused on trading one of their 2 CF'ers to free up playing and they ended up trading both because they liked the offers. At that point they weren't going to trade a 3rd OF'er in one offseason.

[johnnydakota]

There's a huge difference between 2012 Ryan Dempster/Shane Victorino and Josh Willingham. I'm pretty sure you know what it is just as well as I do.

 

 

 

 

I almost edited that post to say "some players" instead of just "players". Go ahead and just mentally slip that word into that sentence.

 

Some players are highly sought after in July. Others are not. Given the abundance of aging outfielders with crappy defense on the market every July, it's not surprising that Willingham wasn't the darling of the market. There was a fair amount of risk with trading for Willingham and if I was a GM, I certainly wouldn't have offered much for him. Would you?

 

And yet you applaud the signing of Josh to a 3 year contract?

[Brock Beauchamp]

And yet you applaud the signing of Josh to a 3 year contract?

 

Absolutely. Because you don't have to give up a prospect to sign a guy in free agency. Prospects are a very limited resource. Money is not nearly as limited and it's pretty easy to shrug off $20m over three years. It's not so easy to shrug off trading an Aaron Hicks or JO Berrios.

[johnnydakota]

Yes, because we all know how Cuddyer was a defensive ninja out there in right field.

 

He was better then Josh, not an fleet footed allstar ,by a long shot .

But we continue to take well rounded players and change them out for players who are 1 dimensional....But cheaper

[johnnydakota]

Absolutely. Because you don't have to give up a prospect to sign a guy in free agency.

 

Here is where you and Ryan agree. Me no, when signing a free agent , you want to add an asset, something of value to the team and to other teams, especially when you think you may end up in a rebuilding phase.

[johnnydakota]

And for the record, this may end up being a blessing for us , Having a healthy Josh as a primary DH next year, especially if we find quality pitching this off season

[Brock Beauchamp]

He was better then Josh, not an fleet footed allstar ,by a long shot .

But we continue to take well rounded players and change them out for players who are 1 dimensional....But cheaper

 

Josh Willingham career dWAR: -7.1

 

Michael Cuddyer career dWAR: -13.7

 

To be fair to Cuddy, he has played in 25% more games.

[DaveW]

People play through injuries all the time, on the Twins and on every other team. Do we have to search for someone to blame every time it occurs?

 

Willingham is an aging player with a lengthy history of injuries. This kind of stuff just happens. It's part of the reason he didn't draw a ton of interest in FA, and also part of the reason his trade value was never as high as some would like to think.

Nick is spot on, players play through nagging injuries all the time which is why you see so many guys tough it out and get surgery in the off-season if needed. It's basic freaking human nature to NOT want to go under the knife if necessary, yeah Josh was struggling a bit but he was still hitting some bombs out of the park etc, it really became an issue a week or so ago when he re-tweaked it etc.

 

Also keep in mind that the Twins depth at OF (especially guys that can hit enough to justify a lineup spot) wasn't (and still isn't) exactly bursting at the seams.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here is where you and Ryan agree. Me no, when signing a free agent , you want to add an asset, something of value to the team and to other teams, especially when you think you may end up in a rebuilding phase.

 

They added an asset. A guy who has been nearly three times more valuable than Michael Cuddyer over the past 18 months.

 

"Having value to the team" and "having value as a trade chit" are not synonymous. You got that player for only money but any interested teams have to pay money and give up a prospect. That diminishes the appeal of players signed to long-term deals.

[Kwak]

I think I pretty clearly explained that with Occam's Razor, Levi.

 

Also, I'm not the one assuming anything. I replied that it's possible he was offered value and didn't take it.

 

But answer this question:

 

Why would Ryan feel loyalty to Josh Willingham, a veteran free agent of four different MLB franchises, but not hesitate to trade Denard Span, a guy Ryan himself drafted and a guy who was so loyal to the Twins that he signed a team-friendly longterm deal, and did not hesitate to trade Ben Revere, an all-around great guy who has spent his entire professional career with the Twins?

 

Does not compute.

 

Yes, it can. BB players are not machines--they are people. They have a life outside of BB. By not trading Willingham (who did not publicly request a trade) the Twins can show future FAs that the Twins don't just see them as a thing, but as a person. That FAs aren't just a "collectible" to be swapped for a profit, such that said player can believe that if he signs with the Twins he will stay there until his contract expires (barring a request for trade). Span wasn't a free agent, and truth be told, he was sent to a better place.

[DaveW]

The problem with trading Doumit is that I really like Mauer not catching everyday. He's been a different player without that kind of wear and tear. And if it's not Doumit, then suddenly Herrmann (or, shudder, Butera) is a semi-regular.

Yeah, I don't get where this trade Doumit stuff comes from. Doumit at this point isn't really an everyday player: He doesn't field anywhere well enough to play every day, and honestly prob doesn't hit enough to be an everyday DH for most teams. With that said he does have plenty of value, especially for a team like the Twins with Mauer.

 

There is no reason to trade Doumit, even if Willingham is the "regular" DH next year, if Morneau is gone there is a good chance that 1B will have plenty of days available for Doumit or Mauer to play.

[TheLeviathan]

Kab nailed it. I believe if the Twins had wanted to move Willingham and aggressively shopped ala Span and Revere we could have gotten more than garbage offers. The true simplest explanation is that the TWins never wanted to sell on him last year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes, it can. BB players are not machines--they are people. They have a life outside of BB. By not trading Willingham (who did not publicly request a trade) the Twins can show future FAs that the Twins don't just see them as a thing, but as a person. That FAs aren't just a "collectible" to be swapped for a profit, such that said player can believe that if he signs with the Twins he will stay there until his contract expires (barring a request for trade). Span wasn't a free agent, and truth be told, he was sent to a better place.

 

Except that Denard publicly stated that he did not want to leave and didn't like that his name was bandied about in trade talks.

 

Do you believe that is somehow less damaging than trading a veteran of four MLB franchises?

 

Very few points being argued here pass the smell test.

[johnnydakota]

They added an asset. A guy who has been nearly three times more valuable than Michael Cuddyer over the past 18 months.

 

"Having value to the team" and "having value as a trade chit" are not synonymous. You got that player for only money but any interested teams have to pay money and give up a prospect. That diminishes the appeal of players signed to long-term deals.

 

Kewl, But as i said , why sign an asset , that has no value to others?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Kab nailed it. I believe if the Twins had wanted to move Willingham and aggressively shopped ala Span and Revere we could have gotten more than garbage offers. The true simplest explanation is that the TWins never wanted to sell on him last year.

 

I think it's far more likely that Ryan was shopping both Span and Willingham but the interest in Span was much higher.

 

Why would Ryan want to keep Willingham but not Span? Again, this argument doesn't follow a very logical train of thought to reach its conclusion.

 

I think the Revere trade kind of fell into Ryan's lap but there's no way you can convince me that Ryan somehow felt loyalty to Willingham but not Span or that he aggressively shopped Denard but not Josh. It's completely counter to what a logical person would do and given Ryan's track record in the trade market, it's impossible to make the argument that he's not logical with his reasoning.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Kewl, But as i said , why sign an asset , that has no value to others?

 

Because it makes the team better. Isn't that why this game is played in the first place?

[DaveW]

I think it's far more likely that Ryan was shopping both Span and Willingham but the interest in Span was much higher.

 

Why would Ryan want to keep Willingham but not Span? Again, this argument doesn't follow a very logical train of thought to reach its conclusion.

 

I think the Revere trade kind of fell into Ryan's lap but there's no way you can convince me that Ryan somehow felt loyalty to Willingham but not Span or that he aggressively shopped Denard but not Josh. It's completely counter to what a logical person would do and given Ryan's track record in the trade market, it's impossible to make the argument that he's not logical with his reasoning.

Yeah I really don't get this.

 

The Twins were shopping Willingham, its just a fact that teams don't give up top tier pitching prospects like Meyer/May etc for guys like Willingham when you can go out on the FA market and get similar production for close to the same cost. Yes, Willinghams contract was nice, but lets not pretend it was Glenn Perkins (prime of his career, 3-4 mil a year) nice.

[kab21]

I think it's far more likely that Ryan was shopping both Span and Willingham but the interest in Span was much higher.

 

Why would Ryan want to keep Willingham but not Span? Again, this argument doesn't follow a very logical train of thought to reach its conclusion.

 

I think the Revere trade kind of fell into Ryan's lap but there's no way you can convince me that Ryan somehow felt loyalty to Willingham but not Span or that he aggressively shopped Denard but not Josh. It's completely counter to what a logical person would do and given Ryan's track record in the trade market, it's impossible to make the argument that he's not logical with his reasoning.

 

I think they were shopping Span aggressively because they had Revere. I think they also put Revere out there but didn't plan on trading both of them. Once that happened Willy was removed from the market and might not have been actively on it while TR was working on a Span/Revere deal.

[Willihammer]

Well the A's parted with AJ Cole in a 3 way deal involving Mike Morse last offseason. Not a perfect comp, Willingham has 3 years on Morse and is owed more money for a year longer, but both are similarly productive, lousy defense righthanded corner bats. Might be the Ms just wouldn't have parted with Jaso to get him and so a Hammer deal never got off the ground. Twins certainly could have sweetened the pot though, and maybe Jr just wasn't willing. Impossible to know for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think they were shopping Span aggressively because they had Revere. I think they also put Revere out there but didn't plan on trading both of them. Once that happened Willy was removed from the market and might not have been actively on it while TR was working on a Span/Revere deal.

 

The Twins have what seems to be about 5,000 outfielders climbing through the system at any given moment. While Ryan probably felt comfortable with Revere taking over for Span, why wouldn't he feel comfortable with someone taking over for Willingham? After all, he had his choice of Parmelee, Doumit, Arcia, maybe even Plouffe.

 

And if he later felt comfortable also trading Revere, his assumed reluctance to move Willingham doesn't make much sense. He was perfectly happy to walk into 2013 with no real centerfielder on the roster. Why would he be so concerned about starting the season with no real leftfielder on the roster?