Josh Willingham will have knee scoped

[Seth Stohs]

Ron Gardenhire announced after Tuesday night's game that Josh Willingham would be having arthroscopic surgery on his knee. He was already placed on the Disabled List for the next 15 days. He could have come back in 2+ weeks and the rest would have helped some, but not fixed the problem. It was later announced that Willingham will miss 4-6 weeks after surgery.

 

In my mind, this is the fairly easy decision, the right decision.

[nicksaviking]

He had an MRI in May did he not? Did he injure it more extensively since or did they miss the damage the first time? He sure seems to have been hurting this whole time.

[DaveW]

I think he re injured it, it's hard to place blame on this one, the twins and he had every reason to try to "play through it" in order to get some trade value for him.

 

Maybe this is for the bet, ideally he comes back strong and the twins can either keep him as an asset for next year or trade him I. The off season

[Cody Christie]

It's interesting to think about what the Twins could have gotten for him at last year's deadline or during this past offseason.

[DaveW]

It's interesting to think about what the Twins could have gotten for him at last year's deadline or during this past offseason.

There were multiple reports of the offers not being very substantial and a © prospect or #4/#5 type pitcher

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's interesting to think about what the Twins could have gotten for him at last year's deadline or during this past offseason.

 

"Not a lot" would be my guess. Definitely not much at the deadline last year, as teams aren't going to fall over themselves to pay for a guy they could have signed four months earlier and is having a career season. In that situation, I think the contract length actually hurt Willingham's value. Offseason, hard to say. Lots of outfielders on the market, lots of choices.

[jay]

Welp, so much for a trade this summer. Harder to see Doumit or Morneau going anywhere with Hammer out. Maybe Willingham comes back healthy in mid-August, tears it up, and builds value for the offseason.

 

The Twins will have some decisions to make at that point. If they want to keep Morneau, one of Willingham or Doumit will likely need to go so the kids can play.

[Chris Schad]

I just wonder this now. The Twins used Willingham for Cuddyer's replacement. Cuddy is tearing it up with the Colorado Rockies and Willingham is on the shelf.

 

Twins have lost more games than the Rockies have in the past year, but that can be blamed on the staff. Cuddy is more versitile defensively and hits for slightly higher average.

 

We're at the midway point of the two contracts, but was signing Willingham still the right move?

 

Y! SPORTS

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just wonder this now. The Twins used Willingham for Cuddyer's replacement. Cuddy is tearing it up with the Colorado Rockies and Willingham is on the shelf.

 

Twins have lost more games than the Rockies have in the past year, but that can be blamed on the staff. Cuddy is more versitile defensively and hits for slightly higher average.

 

We're at the midway point of the two contracts, but was signing Willingham still the right move?

 

Y! SPORTS

 

Yes. Without a doubt.

 

2012-13 Salary:

Cuddyer: $21m

Willingham: $14m

 

2012-13 WAR:

Cuddyer: 1.9

Willingham: 3.6

 

That swap was and is a no-brainer. Great move by the Twins and the type of move they should be making eleven out of ten times.

 

I said it at the end of last season and it still stands: Willingham came close to earning all $21m of his contract last season. He was an extremely valuable player, especially on the Twins, who always seem to need a potent RH bat. Any production he provides in 2013 and 2014 is just icing on his cake of a 2012 season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Welp, so much for a trade this summer. Harder to see Doumit or Morneau going anywhere with Hammer out. Maybe Willingham comes back healthy in mid-August, tears it up, and builds value for the offseason.

 

I don't think this should change anything except that the Twins will be shopping one less vet in July.

 

The Twins still have too many OF/1B/DH bodies. One or two of them need to go and the logical choices start with Doumit and Morneau.

[jokin]

Yes. Without a doubt.

 

2012-13 Salary:

Cuddyer: $21m

Willingham: $14m

 

2012-13 WAR:

Cuddyer: 1.9

Willingham: 3.6

 

That swap was and is a no-brainer. Great move by the Twins and the type of move they should be making eleven out of ten times.

 

I advocated for the move at the time and welcomed the acquisition of Willingham. The problem was that the "found" money by economizing with the replacements only led to increasing the Twins win total by all of 3 GAMES. You simply have to have other corresponding moves with the found money to replace the gaping holes in the roster going into both 2012 and 2013. Ryan confounded this error of omission by failing to trade Willingham in the offseason.

[jay]

That swap was and is a no-brainer. Great move by the Twins and the type of move they should be making eleven out of ten times.

 

Right. And I'm a Cuddy guy. I'm thrilled that Mikey is having a great year, but making a comparison at this particular point in time with one at a career high and the other freshly on the DL only serves the purpose of making the broader picture harder to see.

[jay]

I don't think this should change anything except that the Twins will be shopping one less vet in July.

 

The Twins still have too many OF/1B/DH bodies. One or two of them need to go and the logical choices start with Doumit and Morneau.

 

I'd be stunned to see two, but I'd be plenty happy with one. I could only realistically envision the Twins moving one guy this summer prior to this and my point was more on what I think they'll do as opposed to what I think they should do.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I advocated for the move at the time and welcomed the acquisition of Willingham. The problem was that the "found" money by economizing with the replacements only led to increasing the Twins win total by all of 3 GAMES. You simply have to have other corresponding moves with the found money to replace the gaping holes in the roster going into both 2012 and 2013.

 

I understand your point and I agree with it but I have to admit that banging on the payroll drum is getting a little tired, jokin. It doesn't need to be brought up in every thread that involves a Twins player.

 

No matter whether the Twins spent that extra money or not, Willingham is younger and has offered more production than Cuddyer has in Colorado. Money aspects aside, that means it was a good, smart acquisition by Ryan.

 

Ryan confounded this error of omission by failing to trade Willingham in the offseason.

 

You're making the assumption that Ryan was offered something of real value for Willingham. It's possible he was. It's also possible that he wasn't. Ryan did not hesitate to trade two outfielders this offseason. It stands to reason that had he received a quality offer on the third, he would have made that deal in a heartbeat.

 

I think it's pretty clear that Occam's Razor applies to Willingham. Ryan traded Denard Span, a very good outfielder because it brought back Alex Meyer. He then traded his only other centerfielder, Ben Revere, because it brought back Trevor May and Vance Worley. It's unlikely that Ryan so prized Josh Willingham that he refused to trade him while his two younger centerfielders were completely expendable.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't understand why we automatically assume he wasn't offered much. Our best source for that kind of info is an organization that is loyal to a fault. I fully expect a similar version to pop up about Correia this year.

 

It might be true, but I don't see why that's just blindly accepted.

[DaveW]

It was reported twice on MLB trade rumors. Until someone points to something that says else wise I will have to go with that..... Also aging no defensive bats aren't exactly hard to find on the markets both FA and trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't understand why we automatically assume he wasn't offered much. Our best source for that kind of info is an organization that is loyal to a fault. I fully expect a similar version to pop up about Correia this year.

 

It might be true, but I don't see why that's just blindly accepted.

 

I think I pretty clearly explained that with Occam's Razor, Levi.

 

Also, I'm not the one assuming anything. I replied that it's possible he was offered value and didn't take it.

 

But answer this question:

 

Why would Ryan feel loyalty to Josh Willingham, a veteran free agent of four different MLB franchises, but not hesitate to trade Denard Span, a guy Ryan himself drafted and a guy who was so loyal to the Twins that he signed a team-friendly longterm deal, and did not hesitate to trade Ben Revere, an all-around great guy who has spent his entire professional career with the Twins?

 

Does not compute.

[Boone]

"Not a lot" would be my guess. Definitely not much at the deadline last year, as teams aren't going to fall over themselves to pay for a guy they could have signed four months earlier and is having a career season. In that situation, I think the contract length actually hurt Willingham's value. Offseason, hard to say. Lots of outfielders on the market, lots of choices.

 

I agree that his contract probably hurt Willingham's value last trade deadline. I remember reading last year that Willingham having multiple years remaining on his contract made it difficult for teams to assign value to him at the trade deadline.

 

All in all, Willingham having surgery might actually be beneficial.

1. It reduces the outfield log jam. Willingham would have had to play every day to retain/increase value for the deadline, meaning that someone out of Hicks, Arcia, and Parmelee would have had to ride the bench (probably Parm). This situation would be further complicated by the presence of Clete Thomas.

2. I think this makes the Twins more likely to trade our other pieces (Morneau, Doumit, Correia, and hopefully Perkins). Being forced to hang on to Willingham, one of our veteran pieces, reduces the need to keep our other veteran pieces, which makes trading them more likely.

3.Even though his value was probably at an all time low this trade deadline, I think there's a good chance the Twins would have traded him. They certainly won't trade him now, and if he rebounds well he can probably increase by either this off season or next trade deadline.

[TheLeviathan]

I think I pretty clearly explained that with Occam's Razor, Levi.

 

I don't think your conclusion follows because you've cherry picked the information. Occam's Razor only tells us that we weren't offered "enough". The problem is, we don't know what the standard for "enough" was. Here's what we do know:

 

1. MLBTR is largely reliant upon organizational sources, who aren't going to say "our GM passed on a really good deal!" We know there were multiple teams interested, which generally drives up value.

 

2. We know that Ryan is a historically reluctant deadline dealer. He prefers the offseason in part because he believes he gets better value. (And he's right most of the time)

 

3. Willingham's chances of being more valuable as a trade commodity are essentially zero. Where he was at in July of last year was incredible. His final numbers don't even show it because he had a subpar August/Sept (by comparison to the rest of his 2012 season). He was on-fire in the month of July to boot.

 

4. We know several outfielders moved last year and there was interest in adding power bats.

 

I don't deny that offers on Willingham might have came in low. They might have, there are plenty of good reasons why they would. But point number three is the most salient to me. Regardless of what was offered - it was the best the Twins could have ever hoped to get. His trade value will never be at that point again. Now, as expected, he became a block for playing time for young players and has tailed off in production.

 

Does not compute.

 

In the offseason, loyalties seem to die. If you're asking me to explain Ryan's bizarre penchant to clutch on to players at the deadline like a second grader with his oreos at lunchtime....I can't. I think loyalty, in part, drove the deadline decision. Team's expecting to see the real Willingham in 2013 drove the lack of a trade this offseason.

 

I also think, in part, that they felt they could replace what Span/Revere can do with Hicks. I think they worry that they can't replace what Willingham can do. Which is true, but should be irrelevant during a rebuild.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3. Willingham's chances of being more valuable as a trade commodity are essentially zero. Where he was at in July of last year was incredible. His final numbers don't even show it because he had a subpar August/Sept (by comparison to the rest of his 2012 season). He was on-fire in the month of July to boot.

 

Say you were an MLB GM in July of 2012. How would you have viewed Willingham?

 

Because this is how I would have viewed him:

 

1. He's 32 years old

2. He's having a career year

3. He's an injury liability

4. He is signed for 2 1/2 more seasons

 

At that point, I say to Terry Ryan "I'm taking a big risk by trading for this guy so here's my lowball offer. Don't like it? Don't care, then I'll go pick up one of a half dozen OFers with shorter term contracts who can be had for a D-level prospect."

 

It's possible that Ryan felt loyalty to Willingham. It's also just as likely that other MLB GMs are not mentally retarded and didn't offer the moon for the reasons listed above.

 

I don't deny that offers on Willingham might have came in low. They might have, there are plenty of good reasons why they would. But point number three is the most salient to me. Regardless of what was offered - it was the best the Twins could have ever hoped to get. His trade value will never be at that point again. Now, as expected, he became a block for playing time for young players and has tailed off in production.

 

In the offseason, loyalties seem to die. If you're asking me to explain Ryan's bizarre penchant to clutch on to players at the deadline like a second grader with his oreos at lunchtime....I can't. I think loyalty, in part, drove the deadline decision. Team's expecting to see the real Willingham in 2013 drove the lack of a trade this offseason.

 

What is more likely?

 

1. Terry Ryan is overwhelmed with the spirit of Independence Day and irrationally overvalues his players but comes to his senses every November

 

or

 

2. Teams don't offer much of value in July

[Nick Nelson]

So a six-week recovery period would have Willingham back in late August, with a surgically repaired knee. Can't imagine he plays much left field when he comes back, right?

 

He was looking pretty rough even before all this, and while I was watching Oswaldo Arcia (not a defensive stud in his own right) make a nice sprinting catch down the LF line last night that Hammer would have had no chance on, I realized that the Twins are going to have a pretty tough time justifying Willingham back in the outfield. Seems like the better plan is to have him DH next year, but then what of Doumit?

[Brock Beauchamp]

So a six-week recovery period would have Willingham back in late August, with a surgically repaired knee. Can't imagine he plays much left field when he comes back, right?

 

He was looking pretty rough even before all this, and while I was watching Oswaldo Arcia (not a defensive stud in his own right) make a nice sprinting catch down the LF line last night that Hammer would have had no chance on, I realized that the Twins are going to have a pretty tough time justifying Willingham back in the outfield. Seems like the better plan is to have him DH next year, but then what of Doumit?

 

I think the Twins have to trade Doumit at this point. Josh's value is minimal, almost zero. The Twins simply have too many lumbering bodies to keep them all on the roster and Ryan is the odd man out.

[John Bonnes]

I don't understand why we automatically assume he wasn't offered much.

 

Usually, the way I judge such things is by looking at similar players moved at the deadline and assigning similar value. In general, I was underwhelmed by what teams were receiving for hitters at the last deadline. And this offseason, I was underwhelmed by the contracts right-handed power that was similar to Willingham got. So no, there's nothing definitive, but I sure don't see any evidence on the other side.

 

And for the record, I thought that sucked. For some reason, despite an elite year, Willingham was still viewed as a very average player. My hope was that a second year like that would change things.

 

And just so we're clear - when he "tweaked" his knee the first time NINE weeks ago, back on 4/27, he had a 940 OPS, so that wasn't totally crazy. He might very well be that guy. Had he rested it back then, maybe it doesn't get worse and they have that guy for the last seven weeks. And even if he had this same scope procedure back then, or even a week later, he would have been back by now and showing he's the same guy.

 

Instead he toughed it out, put up a 600ish OPS out of the cleanup spot for two months, plugged up the DH which reduced roster flexibility, played defense even worse than normal, hurt himself further, and is still going on the DL only now it's at the worst possible time - just before the trade deadline.

 

And the best part - for those who want to look at his stats, they can claim he's not the person he was last year, or that it was a career year, because his OPS has dropped 200 points trying to fight his way through this thing. Even though he might very well be that guy.

 

(Which is similar to Trevor Plouffe's numbers last year, but I digress.)

 

A hell of a lot of this could have been avoided, regardless of whether they had good offers last year or this offseason or not.

[TheLeviathan]

At that point, I say to Terry Ryan "I'm taking a big risk by trading for this guy so here's my lowball offer. Don't like it? Don't care, then I'll go pick up one of a half dozen OFers with shorter term contracts who can be had for a D-level prospect."

 

And yet teams take chances on oft-injured, soon to be free agents like Victorino. Or Dempster. Or any number of other past examples. I never suggested they were offered the moon.

 

I'm suggesting the Twins shouldn't have been holding out for that. IMO, we were offered deals that the vast majority of us would've considered sufficient to move him for EXACTLY the reasons you listed above. I'm suggesting Ryan had an irrationally high bar for sufficiency.

 

2. Teams don't offer much of value in July

 

You realize that this just isn't true right? I mean, how many hundreds of "valuable" trade packages would you like me to cite. It's not the issue and it's a vast over simplification - which is really what your entire argument is premised on.

 

I'm not being overly simple here, I think it may well be true that we got crap offers. But I know, with about 99.9% certainty, that Willingham's peak trade value was last July. I think, given all the reasons you listed, we were offered a sufficient package to move him. In part because the line of sufficiency shouldn't have been that high (B level prospect IMO) and in part because of Ryan's historic tendencies.

[TheLeviathan]

And just so we're clear - when he "tweaked" his knee the first time NINE weeks ago, back on 4/27, he had a 940 OPS, so that wasn't totally crazy..

 

John, why did it take so long to hear about this? I guess I missed that he's been battling this for two months. I don't want to start a hornets nest, but why wasn't he sat down then to rest?

[John Bonnes]

I think the Twins have to trade Doumit at this point. Josh's value is minimal, almost zero. The Twins simply have too many lumbering bodies to keep them all on the roster and Ryan is the odd man out.

 

The problem with trading Doumit is that I really like Mauer not catching everyday. He's been a different player without that kind of wear and tear. And if it's not Doumit, then suddenly Herrmann (or, shudder, Butera) is a semi-regular.

[John Bonnes]

John, why did it take so long to hear about this? I guess I missed that he's been battling this for two months. I don't want to start a hornets nest, but why wasn't he sat down then to rest?

 

Well, it was reported in the Pi Press back on 4/27, so it wasn't secret. But your guess is as good as mine why they hell they do what they do with injuries. I don't think its on the med staff. I think it's on the culture.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, it was reported in the Pi Press back on 4/27, so it wasn't secret. But your guess is as good as mine why they hell they do what they do with injuries. I don't think its on the med staff. I think it's on the culture.

 

I ask because typically when there is a known injury a player is battling, the announcers don't skimp on using it to explain slumps. But I don't recall that happening with Willingham. Plus, out of sight and out of mind, I thought we were talking about separate issues.

 

Still, we've made mistakes like this many times the last few years. Very frustrating.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And yet teams take chances on oft-injured, soon to be free agents like Victorino. Or Dempster. Or any number of other past examples. I never suggested they were offered the moon.

 

I'm suggesting the Twins shouldn't have been holding out for that. IMO, we were offered deals that the vast majority of us would've considered sufficient to move him for EXACTLY the reasons you listed above. I'm suggesting Ryan had an irrationally high bar for sufficiency.

 

There's a huge difference between 2012 Ryan Dempster/Shane Victorino and Josh Willingham. I'm pretty sure you know what it is just as well as I do.

 

 

You realize that this just isn't true right? I mean, how many hundreds of "valuable" trade packages would you like me to cite. It's not the issue and it's a vast over simplification - which is really what your entire argument is premised on.

 

I almost edited that post to say "some players" instead of just "players". Go ahead and just mentally slip that word into that sentence.

 

Some players are highly sought after in July. Others are not. Given the abundance of aging outfielders with crappy defense on the market every July, it's not surprising that Willingham wasn't the darling of the market. There was a fair amount of risk with trading for Willingham and if I was a GM, I certainly wouldn't have offered much for him. Would you?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The problem with trading Doumit is that I really like Mauer not catching everyday. He's been a different player without that kind of wear and tear. And if it's not Doumit, then suddenly Herrmann (or, shudder, Butera) is a semi-regular.

 

I know. It sucks. But I think you hold your nose, watch Buterrmann for a few months, and then re-evaluate the back-up catcher in the offseason.