Does David Festa Have A New Pitch Mix?

[Matthew Lenz]

It's a small sample (literally one start of thirty three pitches), but it seems that David Festa has made some changes to his mechanics that are impacting his pitch movement. Oh, he's added a pitch to his arsenal too. What did we see in his first start of the spring that used publicly accessible statcast technology? Let's dive in.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

It’s been a couple of weeks since David Festa made his spring training debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the surface there wasn't much to the start wherein he faced seven batters across two frames striking out two and allowing one base hit. As you dive deeper, though, you start to realize that quite a bit has changed with the 25-year-old since the last time we saw him on a big-league mound.

In his rookie season, right-handed batters had an opponent batting average of .360 and slugging percentage of .700 against his fastball. To counter that, he’s added a sinker that he will primarily deploy against righties as a different look from his four-seam fastball. The addition of that offering should not only be more effective than his four-seamer, but it should actually help the pitch become more effective as hitters have one additional offering to consider.

In addition to deepening his arsenal, the lanky righty has dropped his arm slot 11 degrees which has impacted the movement pattern of his pitches. 

On the left, you see Festa’s movement patterns from his August 28th start against the Atlanta Braves, and on the right his spring training start. In addition to the added sinker, we can see the following changes in his spring training start:

• The fastball has more arm side action
• The change up has more horizontal and vertical movement 
• The slider has less horizontal and vertical movement

Albeit thirty-three pitches of data, that's a significant change in his profile, so let's dive into the implications of those changes.

The added run to his fastball should counteract the downward movement of the sinker. While less movement in his slider can make it less deceptive, the average velocity on the pitch in this start was two miles per hour faster than it was in August. This will help keep hitters off-balance and potentially offset the hitability of the pitch due to the movement change.

Of all the changes the most significant may be with his changeup that had more run and depth in his spring training start. Of his three offerings in 2024, the changeup was his least used pitch yet (28% of the time) but generated the highest whiff percentage at 39.1%. It was especially utilized against lefties where the usage rate jumped to nearly 40% and carried an opponent wOBA of .304. Especially with the added depth, the 2025 version of the pitch looks to separate itself even more from his four-seam fastball, which should generate even more whiffs this season, particularly against right-handed bats. 

If you read the entire thread above, D.J. Morgan of Medium suggests that Festa’s new and improved changeup isn't only due to his change in arm slot. In one of the subsequent tweets (but seriously, go and read the entire thread…it's very insightful), he shares the following adjustments to the pitch grip from the traditional circle change grip:

• Middle & ring fingers shifted to a two-seam orientation
• Index finger moved lower on the ball.

Like his sinker, this adjustment should not only directly improve his changeup, but we can also anticipate it indirectly helping his fastball.

Festa started Friday afternoon against the Tamps Rays, a game that ended in a 9-9 tie. He gave up five runs in his 3 2/3 innings, with most of the damage coming in the third inning. "I thought in that third inning, I just got too predictable," Festa said after the game. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay’s spring training park doesn't have publicly accessible statcast data, so you’ll need to find a replay of the game and rely on your eye test to see if these changes will stick from start to start.

Regardless, it's encouraging that one of the Twins' top pitching arms is looking to get even better after a rookie season that saw him produce a 19.5% K-BB rate and a 3.76 FIP across 64 ⅓ innings. It's just more evidence that points to the Twins being one of the best pitching development organizations in the league. For Festa, it's more evidence that his prospect pedigree and 2024 success was warranted, and whether he wins a roster out of camp or not, he's not far from having a big impact on the big-league club.

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What are your initial thoughts on the new and improved Festa? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[I Never Bet On Sports]

Any insight into Festa switching to only pitching from the stretch in 2025? Is there data available to compare his 2024 stats from the stretch only to what you show above for 2025? I have tried to research but other than statements that  he was much more effective in 2024 while pitching from the stretch vs the windup I can't find any data to examine. It would be interesting to see the pitch profiler data broken out this way. 

Also, any thoughts in general on a starter pitching from the stretch all season? I would think it would be more taxing on the arm and result in fewer innings pitched, but I don't have any data to back up that belief. 

[bean5302]

A quality 4th pitch would be huge for Festa's long term projections, but it's hard to develop new pitches out of the blue. Joe Ryan has experimented with his repertoire for years with varying levels of success when it comes to adding pitches. We'll have to wait until the regular season to see the impact.

[Linus]

I think his pitches are fine.  I mean improve them if you can but I think his future will be determined by his ability to command his pitches.  

[DocBauer]

I had thought Festa was working on a curveball. Not sure where I got that idea. But based on the OP and what's been presented, it makes a lot of sense that a 2 seamer is his new pitch. It could really mess with RH batters, as well as make his 4 seamer that more effective.

Once again, like Ober in 2023, it almost seems unfair for him to begin the season in AAA with how good he was in 2024 post his first couple of outings. But just like Ober that season, these things tend to work themselves out organically. He's going to be an important part of the 2025 season. And maybe a little time at AAA to refine the 2 seamer is a blessing in disguise.

[jkcarew]

My two cents are that he should have stuck with what got him here for another year and simply worked on command.

He’s clearly taken a step back. Will it result in two steps forward?

When?

Then again, who am I to question an organization with an incredible track record of developing good major league starting pitchers like Bailey Ober and……well, Bailey Ober?