"Sticking to the Plan": How The Minnesota Twins Quantify Game-Calling

[Matthew Lenz]

There is a quantifiable stat for nearly everything. At catcher, we have “pop time”, as well as pitch framing and blocking metrics that try to paint a picture of their defensive value. One key part of being a catcher is the art of calling pitches and, while a site like Baseball Savant doesn't quantify the impact of this, the Minnesota Twins measure it with their backstops.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

This very topic came up when Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic and our own John Bonnes were interviewing Ryan Jeffers at the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown.

Gleeman was specifically asking Jeffers about learning new pitchers (i.e. when David Festa was promoted) and how the game plan is formed when each player is still getting to know the other. Jeffers pointed out that it's a collaborative effort between the players and coaching staff, but also revealed that the team uses a “sticking to the plan” stat. Jeffers revealed that an intern will track pitches and after the game will determine how well they stuck with the pre-game plan.

While we don't know the details of how this is exactly calculated (and there's some indication that it's more of a tabulated but flexible feedback system than a true stat), it's a fascinating aspect of the game to discuss. It's one of the few things that aren't formally quantified, at least in the public sphere. Regardless, we can use some thoughtful conjecture to hypothesize what this stat may look like.

When game planning, there are two sets of strengths and weaknesses to consider: your pitcher’s and the opposing hitter’s. Of course, you always prefer to lean into your pitcher's strengths, as that is where they are most comfortable, but that's not always the best plan. Not only do opposing hitters have the scouting report on that game’s pitcher, but their strengths may coincide with the pitcher’s. For example, Simeon Woods Richardson’s slider performed really well last year. At the same time, Kansas City's Salvador Perez had a solid .331 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and hit six home runs on sliders from righties in 2024. When those two match up in 2025, should Woods Richardson avoid throwing his slider? That's where the next layer of the plan comes into play.

Pitchers and hitters alike have tendencies and preferences that impact the game plan. Pitchers like to throw certain pitches in certain counts, and that may even vary depending on the handedness of the hitter. 

From Pablo López’s Brooks Baseball page, you can see his tendencies based on the count as well as hitter split.  Generally speaking, left-handed hitters should look for more vertical movement, while their right-handed counterparts will look for more horizontal movement. (This is pretty typical: horizontal movement tends to deceive same-handed batters better than opposite-handed ones. Vertical movement is best leveraged when the hitter has the platoon advantage.) Specifically, in a two-strike count, right-handed hitters have four pitches to stay on, while left-handed hitters can more or less throw out the slider (that's his sweeper; Brooks Baseball just doesn't distinguish sliders from sweepers yet). On the other hand, hitters have their own swing tendencies that will be part of the game plan as well. Check out Byron Buxton’s swing tendencies and outcomes on two-strike counts. Where are you attacking him?

If you said underneath the zone, I would absolutely agree. If you play around on his Brooks Baseball page, you’ll find that while he does relatively well against sinkers and sliders regardless of count, locating well with those offerings can confound him. While the numbers shared are for their careers, it’s also important to consider recent tendencies as well. Has the hitter struggled against a certain type of pitch over the last two weeks? Is the hitter dealing with a nagging injury that may impact their ability to get around on a ball or extend their hands to the outside part of the zone? While quantifiable trends are the most important thing to go into a game plan, it’s also important to have a feel for the game.

“You have to constantly weigh that battle of what you see, what your eyes are telling you versus what the numbers are saying,” Jeffers said at the Meltdown. To supplement what the data is telling you, pitchers and catchers can leverage film to help identify weaknesses in a hitter’s swing. Moreover, in-game observations at the at-bat level can impact how you set hitters up later in the count or in future at-bats. That a player generally struggles with a certain pitch doesn’t necessarily mean it's wise to pummel the zone with that pitch; getting them out still requires a thoughtful approach on how you set that player up for that pitch type.

While we don’t know how the Twins exactly quantify “sticking to the plan,” quantifying this internally is an important part of pitcher and catcher development and deepening the relationship there. Reflecting on the game plan can lead to invaluable discussions and learning opportunities, such as the thought process behind deviating from the plan; why a pitcher may have shaken off the catcher (something that is encouraged by Jeffers); or why the plan may or may not have worked on a particular day. Especially in the early stages of a pitcher-catcher relationship, these discussions can help the two better understand each other’s tendencies, as well as when or how the pitcher prefers to deviate from those tendencies.

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[ashbury]

Analytics doesn't have to be about numbers, a simple grading scale of Good/Average/Bad or Green/Yellow/Red can be used.  It almost sounds like this with regard to sticking with the pitch-calling plan.

I'd love to know more, though.  And I doubt they'll tell us.  Sometimes deviating from the plan is the right thing to do, as Jeffers alluded to and the article explains.  Sometimes it's right to stick to the plan.  So the Green/Yellow/Red pattern is really unclear to me.

[Whitey333]

Many times I've heard the Twins say "stick to the plan" and it's the process not the results that are important.  They have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 seasons in perhaps one of the weakest divisions in baseball.  IMO one of the faults of the manager is the unwillingness or inability to make appropriate in game adjustments and decisions.  It's analytics gone wild!

[Matthew Lenz]

22 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Many times I've heard the Twins say "stick to the plan" and it's the process not the results that are important.  They have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 seasons in perhaps one of the weakest divisions in baseball.  IMO one of the faults of the manager is the unwillingness or inability to make appropriate in game adjustments and decisions.  It's analytics gone wild!

It's even more wild to look at some of the rosters (and dwindling resources) Baldelli has been given and attribute the Twins missing the playoffs to him. He's not perfect but far from the reason they've missed in 3/4 seasons. Also, the AL Central had four times finish above .500, three make the playoffs, three make the divisional round, and one make the championship round. 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Doctor Gast]

Analytics is very important & serves a large purpose, especially in pitching. Game calling isn't something easy to do, Some catchers have an easier time than others, very few become very good at it while a vast majority aren't very good at it. So it's easier & more productive for the analytics department to come up with a plan. 

In '22 we had Jeffers & Sanchez, neither were very adept in game calling then. Jeffers got hurt early so it was basically Sanchez, to give you context, Gray refused Sanchez to catch him. Now I usually don't follow pitchers' pitches but I took a special interest in Chris Archer. His best pitches were Slider/ FB & his 3rd pitch was a change-up. So every batter it was the same plan throw the CU early to set up the slider/FB. Although his CU wasn't his best pitch he got a lot of whiffs early in the count on it because they were trying to be on for a slider or FB. Later on in the count he threw slider/FBs & they kept fouling off pitch after pitch, racking up his pitch count. Archer was still recovering from shoulder surgery & the high-pitch counts really took a heavy toll on him. Quickly they knew when the CU was coming & when the slider/FB was coming. Nothing changed throughout the season. If I were the catcher I'd see Archer getting whiffs with his CU, I'd change it up right away & save the CU for the SO pitch. Bringing down Archers pitch counts & extending his innings & make him more effective.

I like to compare this "the plan" to computer dating. For people who are very busy & or lack social skills, this is great. But this can't replace the organic & chemistry that has to happen. This "the plan" can't replace the organic & chemistry that has to happen between the catcher & pitcher. "The plan" can't eliminate the need for organizations to stress catchers to develop game-calling skills throughout their careers or encourage catchers who have this gift. Now days technology has hindered many from developing social skills, many are dependent on calculators, and they don't know how to do simple math. "The plan" catchers can become dependent on it & not know how to call a game. Game calling is very organic, situations pop up & it's very advantageous if a catcher can pick up on it right away & react. But FOs love it because they get to control the game, taking away that feeling the catcher feels when he's in control of the game.

I'm not an expert & I'm not saying get rid of "the plan". I'm saying I'm concerned of the dangers of taking this too far.

[CRF]

Didn't realize there was a plan.

[old nurse]

The idea of a book on the hitter has been around a long time. Technology has made it easier to obtain  having a plan on how to get the hitters out seems logical. Having flexibility in the plan seems logical. There always be an outlier situation. I remember a pitcher stating that they threw a pitch that had nothing on it. Thought the pitch was going to get killed. The batter swung and missed. Said the pitcher, well.  I guess he wasn’t expecting that