The Minnesota Twins Project to Have Baseball’s Best Bullpen, With Room to Improve

[big dog]

On 1/16/2025 at 7:59 PM, ashbury said:

Brock Stewart has never pitched as many as 35 major league innings in a season.  He's already 33 years old.  To expect a pitcher with this kind of resume to be a major reason that the Twins' bullpen could be one of the best is just wishful thinking.

Aside from that, with Cleveland's bullpen mostly intact from last year, I don't see how our top-4 plus a cast of thousands can be considered on a par with the best.

Yeah, I'm counting on Stewart for at least 15 quality innings but only six weeks or so on the active roster. Too bad, but the track record is brutal.

[big dog]

OK, I haven't done a math problem in a day or two. Let's try this one.

The Twins played 14 extra-inning games and had 24 extra innings in them, so those runners were 24/83 = 12% of the inherited runners- I assume they count as inherited, but I don't know that for sure.

They lost 9 of those games so at least 38% of them scored...probably. Five of those games went more than one inning, so multiple phantom runners could have scored in the same loss, and of course phantom runners could have also scored in games the Twins won. I have zero interest in figuring out what that number actually is.

If those 9 were the only ones who scored, then in other situations there were (203 – 24 = 179) inherited runners and (83-9 = 74) non-phantom inherited runners who scored, for a 38% rate, basically the same as the overall 41% rate.

So let's make a wild assumption that 75% of the phantom runners scored and see how it affects the math. 24 phantoms score 18 times. That means that (83 – 18 = 65) of the 179 non-phantoms scored, for a rate of 36%.

It looks to me like the presumption is correct- that rate's possibly worse because of phantom runner disasters, but it's bad if we ignore them too.

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, big dog said:

It looks to me like the presumption is correct- that rate's possibly worse because of phantom runner disasters, but it's bad if we ignore them too.

That was more work than I wanted to undertake, so thanks for doing it.

Keep in mind, though, that my posts have been in reference to an article with a title suggesting the Twins' bullpen could be THE best.  Regardless of where the inherited runners came from, they scored, and the IS% (bad either with or without your analysis) can not be consistent with a shutdown bullpen.

"Best bullpen" simply didn't pass the eye-test for me when I watched Twins games last season, either.  They have a few good relievers.  The best bullpens are deep.  Many of the inherited runners scored against pitchers who won't be with the team in 2025; big deal, if those arms get replaced in the usual way, which at the moment it looks like.

[big dog]

24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That was more work than I wanted to undertake, so thanks for doing it.

Keep in mind, though, that my posts have been in reference to an article with a title suggesting the Twins' bullpen could be THE best.  Regardless of where the inherited runners came from, they scored, and the IS% (bad either with or without your analysis) can not be consistent with a shutdown bullpen.

"Best bullpen" simply didn't pass the eye-test for me when I watched Twins games last season, either.  They have a few good relievers.  The best bullpens are deep.  Many of the inherited runners scored against pitchers who won't be with the team in 2025; big deal, if those arms get replaced in the usual way, which at the moment it looks like.

Sorry if I was unclear- I meant that your presumption that the extra innings probably didn’t affect the season statistic looked correct. It’s a bad outcome no matter what. 
There is no chance I’m jumping on the “Best Bullpen” bus until mid-August at the earliest. 

[JD-TWINS]

So, many thoughts here and not many are very upbeat. I like our talent in the PEN ……our consistent health outlook is sketchy! Certainly reason for skepticism.

My PEN (blended as is possible through the year):

Paddack - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Henriquez - Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Blewett - Tonkin - Jax - Duran ………..12 possibilities (maybe 1 or 2 are traded?) ……a potentially effective group!

[stringer bell]

19 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, many thoughts here and not many are very upbeat. I like our talent in the PEN ……our consistent health outlook is sketchy! Certainly reason for skepticism.

My PEN (blended as is possible through the year):

Paddack - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Henriquez - Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Blewett - Tonkin - Jax - Duran ………..12 possibilities (maybe 1 or 2 are traded?) ……a potentially effective group!

They’ll need ‘em all and more. 

[tony&rodney]

It was a stretch to suggest the Twins have the best bullpen. Perhaps an optimist would suggest one of the best or possibly a strong relief corps. The Twins bullpen should be ok. They  signed another guy.

Minor league free agent, and former 19th round pick by the Colorado Rockies, Jacob Bosiokovic has agreed to a deal with the Minnesota Twins. Bosiokovic spent time at North Carolina’s Tread Athletics this offseason and transformed his abilities.

It is way too winter for baseball but nothing much is happening. Maybe all the GMs are playing a game of I'm not calling him, he should call me.