Article: For Minnesota Twins, the Future is Now

[Oxtung]

Does anyone actually think Pelfrey is going to "build up trade value" by putting together a handful of good starts before the deadline? You're kidding yourselves. The Twins would be lucky to get another team to cover his salary.

 

This line of thought reminds me of Liriano's good streak last season just before the deadline. People were sure that streak meant he was going to bring back good value never mind the previous season and a half.

[PseudoSABR]

Worley might be ahead of Pelfrey by the time he is healthy as well.

 

Pelfrey's role was to buy time, and though he didn't do it effectively, that role has probably closed, and the Twins should explore other options and avoid paying any more incentives to Pelfrey's ineffectiveness.

[Nick Nelson]

Pelfrey's role was to buy time, and though he didn't do it effectively, that role has probably closed, and the Twins should explore other options and avoid paying any more incentives to Pelfrey's ineffectiveness.

This basically echoes my thoughts. I can certainly see the value to Pelfrey of allowing him to keep pitching and build some sort of market for his services going forward. I don't really see any benefit to the Twins.

 

There's just no reason to think he's going to be better than other options they have available -- even when he's going good Pelfrey gives up at least three runs per game -- and the Twins have much more to gain by getting a look at some younger players (such as Worley).

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, if Worley is healthy, it is better for him to be here than Pelfrey, same with Hendriks (though Worley has been effective in the majors). Signing Pelfrey was a good roll of the die, but it seems to be coming up a 1 right now.....

[jay]

I'd like to see the list of players who had, let's say, +25 WAR careers after posting < 9 BB% and >25 K% as a rookie. I'm genuinely curious, but probably don't have the time to research it. My guess is that it's not a very long list, though.

 

We're still dealing with a small sample and even if we did this, it wouldn't reflect the current state of the game today with the K proliferating so quickly. Thirty years ago, that player wouldn't even be in the lineup. Today, it's accepted. Believe it or not, 20% is average.

 

Arcia's K rate shouldn't be completely unexpected based on his minor league numbers. The BB rate is decent and his MiLB record suggests it's sustainable if not improvable.

[stringer bell]

Maybe I like the radar gun too much, but Pelf's increase in velo intrigues me. With the graph still headed north, I would like to see how he produces the rest of the way and perhaps give him a similar contract for 2014. I would guess that Worley will be back within a month or so with his effectiveness in Rochester. Albers will probably get a look sometime after the trade deadline, perhaps when Gibson is shut down. Who is in danger? Well, I would say that Walters is now in the stink hole as the starter in jeopardy with Diamond next in line. I've promised to start a thread calling for these guys to be demoted and I'll give each one more start. If I have the same success with them as Parmelee, I'll have to start calling for everybody to be sent to Triple A.

[PopRiveter]

I like silver slugger's idea of a 6-man rotation as a temporary approach under these conditions. There are a lot of guys with some intriguing potential and all have question marks. I'd like to see as many as possible sharing the major league innings. I also like the idea of allowing the Tommy-John guys a little extra recovery time between starts.

Heading into the season, I thought Pelfrey was the best gamble the team took, but I haven't exactly loved watching him pitch yet. I understand still wanting to get something out of him, but they've kind of run out of time for a payoff. Unless the payoff comes from doubling-down on him in 2014. That just doesn't feel wise right now.

[Mike Sixel]

Doubling down on the starter with the 2nd worst ERA of starters with at least 60 innings pitched? Not a good bet.

[Oxtung]

I think there is going to be a lot of pitchers looking to get time with the Twins next season.

 

Gibson

Correia

Diamond

Worley

Deduno

Hendriks

Walters

De Vries

Hernandez

May

Meyer

Darnell

Albers

Baxendale

Matt Summers

Ryan Eades (assuming he signs he has been touted as quick to the majors)

 

Those are all guys at AA or above who, depending on how the pitch the rest of this year and early next could figure into the rotation at some point next year. Pelfrey has never been a particularly good pitcher even before his TJ surgery. I would think out of that mix the Twins could find 5 starters who are at least as good as Pelfrey next season and even if they can't that is good to know going into 2015. To me resigning Pelfrey would be a mistake. We need to see what we have with these young guys and the only way to do that is play them.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Heading into the season, I thought Pelfrey was the best gamble the team took, but I haven't exactly loved watching him pitch yet. I understand still wanting to get something out of him, but they've kind of run out of time for a payoff. Unless the payoff comes from doubling-down on him in 2014. That just doesn't feel wise right now.

 

Yeah, I think they got what they needed from Pelfrey - time. My guess is neither side saw this as a long-term relationship. We were bridging a gap to Gibson/Meyer/May being ready, and Pelfrey saw this as an opportunity to build credentials for another FA run this offseason. All in all, I think this worked out better for us than for him. Both sides wished it had been better, though.

[Shane Wahl]

Pelfrey might have been worth something if he was in EST until mid-May or so building arm strength. Now there is no value to be had for him. People thinking he can be traded are not being realistic in the slightest. And signing him next year for $4 million? Wha????

[Mike Sixel]

I think there is going to be a lot of pitchers looking to get time with the Twins next season.

 

Gibson

Correia

Diamond

........

 

You forgot Wimmers.....agree on Pelfrey 100%

[diehardtwinsfan]

You forgot Wimmers.....agree on Pelfrey 100%

 

Wimmers hasn't pitched about A+. I doubt highly that he'll be pushing to spend time in MN come 2014.

[FanFromAffar]

The Twins are only 6 games behind the Tigers which is still within the realm of possibility. I'm hoping for a sweep of the Marlins. If the Orioles give a good licking to the Tribe (as they are capable of doing) then the Twins could be in second place at the end of this series with Miami. That'll give us a good basis for Gibson to work with.

 

well I was wrong. I can't believe the Twins lost to the Marlins. How do you sweep the White Sox and then lose to the Marlins!?

[jokin]

Pelfrey might have been worth something if he was in EST until mid-May or so building arm strength. Now there is no value to be had for him. People thinking he can be traded are not being realistic in the slightest. And signing him next year for $4 million? Wha????

 

That post probably put you on "negativity watch". Too close to the truth for some tastes on this board. I was stunned that Pelfrey was with the big club on opening day, 11 months out of TJ surgery. What did the Twins see going in to April 1st that suggested that Pelfrey could defy historical medical trends?

[jokin]

well I was wrong. I can't believe the Twins lost to the Marlins. How do you sweep the White Sox and then lose to the Marlins!?

 

Answer. A very good starting pitcher for the Marlins, who are actually playing quite well of late (13-9), haven't given up more than 3 runs in 9 straight games. Red Dog is doing a good job in Miami, and they got back a couple of good bats off the DL. The Twins looked like they were coming off a South Beach hangover, 3 errors and a few other botched efforts in the field and at the plate.

 

Tomorrow should be better, Tom Koehler is awful in day games (.939 OPS, 6.75 ERA) and is very hittable overall by lefities (.463 SLG, .807 OPS). If the Twins do as well as they should against a guy so hittable, I expect this will be Koehler's last start for the Marlins, for now , anyway.