Brett’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint: The Kids Are Alright

[Brett]

My one and only blog thus far talked about Willi Castro and how he was a bellwether for roster construction next year, so I start with him.

It's too late, but I would not have tendered him. We just paid Kyle Farmer $6+M to have a subpar season as our primary utility IF and we can't afford that again. Instead, I would go with Brooks Lee to back up 3B/SS/2B. This goes against a lot of folks thinking that Lee could start at 2B or 3B, but I think his flexibility is key for us this year as he provides major injury insurance for Lewis and Correa. I'm not sure another team values Castro as much as we do, but let's just say we're able to trade his salary away for a mid level prospect and (maybe) a lottery ticket pitcher.

My infield to start the year has Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, and Julien at 2B. If he can put whatever that was last year behind him, this actually works. At 1B, I would go back to the well and try to get another year out of Carlos Santana. It's funny he's not even listed among the free agents below, but I would hope his glove, at least, is ageless. We can expect the bat to slow down some, but he was more than serviceable last year. We'll call it $5M to occupy the infield most days and train in Jose Miranda. I might also tell Trevor Larnach to buy a first basemen's mitt and I can't be the first person to think about that.

In the outfield, Larnach, Buxton and Wallner are pretty damn solid. I'd love to see the 3 of them combine for 100 HR's, but I know we're Twins fans and can't have nice things. DaShawn Keirsey provides better OF defense than Austin Martin and probably will hit better. Martin sticks around because he is also the emergency 2B in addition to be adequate in LF and CF.

Hey, teacher: leave those catchers alone! I shudder to think how the pitching staff would look without Vazquez, and Jeffers can literally carry the team offensively for games at a time.

Starting pitching is pretty easy. Letting Paddack go right now when he could be on the cusp of very good/great is short-sighted. I would rather let 2 of SWR/Festa/Matthews marinate in St. Paul instead of depending on 2 (or all 3) to be a major part of the staff for the whole year. That's 7 guys there, plus Andrew Morris AND Cory Lewis AND Marco Freakin' Raya. Feeling pretty good about the picture now and longer term.

Relievers are in good shape as well. I'm less concerned about handedness and more concerned about getting people out. So, sure, I can see Kody Funderburk or I can see Brent Headrick, or I can see both of them if Louie Varland doesn't have a good spring. Ronny Henriquez is also in the picture, especially if someone above in the pecking order gets hurt or can't find the strike zone early on. Seriously, we'll see all these guys at some point.

So, yes, the kids will be alright. And, yes, I know that I'm a Dobnak over budget. In my company, 2.33% over budget is doing really well.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Carlos Santana ($5.00M)
• 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.80M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Jose Miranda ($0.80M)
• 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M)
• Utility: Brooks Lee ($0.80M)
• Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• SP4: Chris Paddack ($7.50M)
• SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($1.30M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 0.08% over budget

[tony&rodney]

I  applaud your confidence in merely putting the same team back out on the field again.

I'm not too worried about the pitching either. However, Paddack hasn't been able to throw since 2019, when Nelson Cruz was a force. I don't see either repeating their 2019 seasons in 2025. I like Larnach and Wallner too, but they need to share the DH/RF spots so at least the pitchers have some hope. 

Love the  positivity you profess in the players.

[goulik]

I also believe we will live and die with how the youngsters perform but it's ironic that in this blueprint we're trying to run it back with the same team minus our all star, silver slugging utility man. This blueprint could prove to be genius self confidence or the whole system gets fired when the Twins fall out of contention because of their blind hubris. Go big of go home I guess...

[tony&rodney]

Is this Falvey's idea of "creative"?

[Twodogs]

So I like your ideas.  But I guess my big thought process here is that this is basically the same exact team Minnesota had least year and they finished 4th.  So I believe somehow the Twins need to sign either a left fielder or a right fielder that can change the clubhouse and provide that extra spark that they didn't have last season.  Maybe doesn't need to be a great player but probably needs to be a spark plug kind of guy.  Then you'd have to get rid of Santana, and probably go full blown Miranda/Larnach at 1B. 

 

This team needs someone who is a quasi everyday player that makes a difference in the clubhouse/adds a spark on the field to light a fire under this team.  Obviously can't spend big on this guy.  The pitchers look ok, again I think an everyday type of player needs to be brought in to change the atmosphere and the attitudes and bring positive energy to the team.  Otherwise you have the same team that finished 4th last season?

[Brett]

On 11/25/2024 at 9:54 PM, tony&rodney said:

I  applaud your confidence in merely putting the same team back out on the field again.

I'm not too worried about the pitching either. However, Paddack hasn't been able to throw since 2019, when Nelson Cruz was a force. I don't see either repeating their 2019 seasons in 2025. I like Larnach and Wallner too, but they need to share the DH/RF spots so at least the pitchers have some hope. 

Love the  positivity you profess in the players.

Appreciate the comment. I share the concern about Paddack, but I also think he’ll only start the year in the rotation, not finish it. Maybe he catches lightning in a bottle, or maybe Festa is up in mid May. It’s nice to have options.

[Brett]

18 hours ago, Twodogs said:

So I like your ideas.  But I guess my big thought process here is that this is basically the same exact team Minnesota had least year and they finished 4th.  So I believe somehow the Twins need to sign either a left fielder or a right fielder that can change the clubhouse and provide that extra spark that they didn't have last season.  Maybe doesn't need to be a great player but probably needs to be a spark plug kind of guy.  Then you'd have to get rid of Santana, and probably go full blown Miranda/Larnach at 1B. 

 

This team needs someone who is a quasi everyday player that makes a difference in the clubhouse/adds a spark on the field to light a fire under this team.  Obviously can't spend big on this guy.  The pitchers look ok, again I think an everyday type of player needs to be brought in to change the atmosphere and the attitudes and bring positive energy to the team.  Otherwise you have the same team that finished 4th last season?

You’re not wrong. Trying to stay within budget and hoping for the best means the majority of the younger players have to be better than last year. It is a big ask.

The spark guy? Tough call. The coach’s son (Lee)? The local kid (Wallner)? Someone who’s not on the radar yet (Eeles)? Maybe we’ll find a Shannon Stewart-type impact at the trade deadline.

[Twodogs]

On 12/2/2024 at 9:59 AM, Brett said:

You’re not wrong. Trying to stay within budget and hoping for the best means the majority of the younger players have to be better than last year. It is a big ask.

The spark guy? Tough call. The coach’s son (Lee)? The local kid (Wallner)? Someone who’s not on the radar yet (Eeles)? Maybe we’ll find a Shannon Stewart-type impact at the trade deadline.

Shannon Stewart is the perfect example.  Somehow the Twins need to find a really inexpensive Shannon Stewart!  I wish them luck, that one will be hard to do nowadays.  

 

But last year they seemed to be a decent team, they just seemed to be missing that spark at times.  So hopefully this year it all turns around.  

[bean5302]

It's not a terrible plan to put it in the hands of the existing young core, but I also don't think it's the best option the Twins have at extending their window. I'd project the roster at about 83 wins.

I think you're being pretty optimistic Santana signs at $5MM since he's expected to get a better offer than that in general. I think he'll probably get $8MM. I'd also suspect he produces more like a 1 WAR season similar to his recent seasons than his unexpected 2024.

While I think Julien at 2B will maximize his value, I don't think expecting him to bounce back to his xwOBA (probably an OPS .780 / wRC+ 115) from 2023 would be likely based on his inability to adapt to the scouting reports exposing his weaknesses. 

Paddack probably isn't a good starting pitcher in my opinion. I don't think he'd be anything better than a #5 guy on most playoff teams, and that's if he remains healthy (which he won't). I'm also not sure his stuff will play up much in the 'pen. He had some impressive K rates in 2023 in a SSSS, but the stuff doesn't really look much better. Paddack is a luxury, and the Twins do not have payroll for luxuries.

The biggest problem I see with this roster is infield/outfield depth. If anything goes wrong or an unexpected injury crops up, it gets ugly quick, and there's a high degree of likelihood multiple players of the Martin/Keirsey/Julien/Lee group aren't up to the task of regular playing time.

[Twodogs]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's not a terrible plan to put it in the hands of the existing young core, but I also don't think it's the best option the Twins have at extending their window. I'd project the roster at about 83 wins.

I think you're being pretty optimistic Santana signs at $5MM since he's expected to get a better offer than that in general. I think he'll probably get $8MM. I'd also suspect he produces more like a 1 WAR season similar to his recent seasons than his unexpected 2024.

While I think Julien at 2B will maximize his value, I don't think expecting him to bounce back to his xwOBA (probably an OPS .780 / wRC+ 115) from 2023 would be likely based on his inability to adapt to the scouting reports exposing his weaknesses. 

Paddack probably isn't a good starting pitcher in my opinion. I don't think he'd be anything better than a #5 guy on most playoff teams, and that's if he remains healthy (which he won't). I'm also not sure his stuff will play up much in the 'pen. He had some impressive K rates in 2023 in a SSSS, but the stuff doesn't really look much better. Paddack is a luxury, and the Twins do not have payroll for luxuries.

The biggest problem I see with this roster is infield/outfield depth. If anything goes wrong or an unexpected injury crops up, it gets ugly quick, and there's a high degree of likelihood multiple players of the Martin/Keirsey/Julien/Lee group aren't up to the task of regular playing time.

Yeah that's why I'm thinking that we can't really expect much out of this team this season.  They finished 4th last year and the Twins are probably going to run the same team back again minus a couple of pieces.  Most likely a 4th place finish again.  But, if those guys like Lee and Julien and Martin get full seasons under their belts and start to figure things out a bit, then they could come back really strong in the next few years or so.  I found it amazing that the Oakland A's signed Severino to darn near 70 mil?

[Doctor Gast]

You are basically bringing back the same team that Falvey put together in '24 that was so bad. But I see you didn't bring back Margot & you replaced him with Keirsey which is a vast improvement, especially in defense which MN was so bad in. You also kept Vazquez to stabilize the catching which I agree with. If we trade away Julien our defense at 2B would vastly improve our defense so we wouldn't need to waste our money on an expensive low-productive GG 1Bman which would cost more than $5M. We need a much more productive & cheaper Miranda. W/o Julien we might have to trade for a RH platoon 1B backup if Keaschal wouldn't be ready. I wouldn't trade Castro because he'd be more difficult to replace & affect our depth. We'd save more money on Paddack & he'd be easier to replace.

Congratulations Brett, you did improve the team but I'd personally do it differently.