Twins Daily Debate: Why the Twins Should Prefer to Face the Orioles in the Playoffs

[Matthew Taylor]

It might seem odd to talk about whom the Twins should prefer to face in the playoffs, when their own chances of making it are far from certain. But if we're considering the scenario where they do make it, the decision boils down to two opponents: the Baltimore Orioles or the Houston Astros. And the choice is clear.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

[Ed. note: If you missed it earlier this morning, check out the counterpoint to this piece, from our Eric Blonigen, arguing that the Twins would be better off facing the Astros. Here's Matt making the case for taking on Walltimore.]

For much of the season, fans have been eyeing the AL West champion as the better matchup in an eventual playoff showdown. At the time, the AL East runner-up would have likely meant heading to Yankee Stadium, or dealing with the surging Orioles. But now, with the regular season winding down, I'd argue that the Twins should hope for a matchup against Baltimore, as they appear to be the more vulnerable team right now.

At the start of the year, Baltimore looked like a potential juggernaut, jumping out to a 49-25 record. They were in the conversation for the best team in baseball. But since Jul. 1, things have fallen apart for them. They’ve gone 33-39 over that stretch—one of the seven worst records in baseball. Think about how frustrated we’ve been with the Twins' showing since July began (34-38), and yet, the Orioles have been even worse.

Since Sept. 1, things haven’t gotten any better for Baltimore. They're 8-11, and have completely taken themselves out of the running for the AL East title. It’s been a rough go for them, across the board. Since the start of July, they rank 21st in OPS (.710), 19th in starting pitching ERA (4.36), and their bullpen has fallen to 26th in the majors, with a 4.78 ERA. They’re not hitting well, their starting pitching is shaky, and their bullpen—which was once a strength—is now a glaring weakness. They're not getting it done in any phase of the game.

One of the bigger concerns for Baltimore is their lack of playoff experience. They’re loaded with young talent, but they don’t have many players who have performed under the bright lights of October. Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Colton Cowser are incredibly talented, but they’ve only been in the postseason once, and that was last year, when they got swept by the Texas Rangers. It’s hard to bank on unproven players in a playoff series when the pressure ramps up.

Compare that to the Houston Astros. This is a team that has been through everything—deep playoff runs, World Series wins, and the ups and downs that come with postseason baseball. Players like José Altuve and Alex Bregman have delivered in the biggest moments. There’s a certain comfort level Houston brings to the playoffs that Baltimore just doesn’t have. One side last saw the ALCS in 2014. The other has been there in each of the last seven years.

That’s not to say facing the Orioles wouldn’t be challenging. Their ace, Corbin Burnes, is lined up to start Game 1. Burnes is a top-five pitcher in baseball, and he can shut down any lineup on his day. The Twins would have their work cut out for them in that matchup. But if they can survive Game 1, the rest of the series could tilt in Minnesota’s favor. After Burnes, the Twins have a clear advantage in starting pitching. And if they can get into Baltimore’s bullpen, which has been shaky for months, they could take control of the series.

This weekend’s series against Baltimore will give the Twins an opportunity to size up the Orioles, but it’s worth noting that Baltimore might not be playing their top guys with their playoff spot already locked in. Still, it’s a good chance to see how they match up. It will also be a radically different setting than what the two teams would shift to for the playoff series, if it came to that, so the visitors wouldn't be able to extrapolate overmuch from whatever the Twins show. Target Field and Camden Yards play very, very differently.

All in all, if the Twins make the playoffs, their best chance at advancing is probably through Baltimore. The Orioles’ recent struggles, combined with their lack of postseason experience, make them a beatable team. If the Twins can handle Burnes and get to Baltimore’s vulnerable bullpen, they could find themselves moving on in October.

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Would you rather the Twins get matched up against the Orioles or Astros? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[BH67]

I'd take the August 15 Twins against either. Now I'm content simply if they get a dance ticket.

[LambchoP]

I'll be happy if they find a way to sneak in, but it looks like no matter who we play will easily not only sweep us, but probably shut us out both games as well.

[bean5302]

The biggest obstacle in the playoffs is scoring runs against tough starting pitchers. The Astros' rotation absolutely dominates the Twins.
Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi. They're all as good or better than Twins "Ace" Pablo Lopez right now.

Baltimore's rotation isn't quite as smothering with their ace, Kyle Bradish out for the year, and their #3 Grayson Rodriguez out for the year (rotation). Corbin Burnes has looked vulnerable. Suarez is up and down. The Orioles' ownership had the foresight to acquire Zach Eflin at the deadline, and though the oft injured pitcher spent a couple weeks on the IL, he's been pretty dominant, and he's arguably their best pitcher atm. The 4th starter role is a toss up, but I think the Orioles might turn to Cade Povich, who has overwhelmed MLB hitters over his past few starts.

Since 8/1 (QS2 = 5.0+ IP, ERA under 4.00)
Eflin = 2.01 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, QS2 86%
Burnes = 4.26 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.97 xFIP, QS2 56% (100% last 5 starts)
Suarez = 3.91 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, QS2 60%
Povich = 4.91 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.72 xFIP QS2 57%

Povich is the wildcard.
His last 4 starts? 3.27 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 2.91 xFIP 12.27 K/9 (34.5%), 2.86 BB/9 (8.0%)

So yeah... the Twins' lineup needs some help, and Baltimore's rotation isn't absolutely stifling.

[Aerodeliria]

I thought this was a post from RandBall's...ooops

[CRF]

The only thing they're gonna face...is their own faces in the mirror, and the look of failure. They ain't making the playoffs. 

[Otaknam]

Playoffs! Playoffs! This team is dead in the water! No offense, bad pitching, especially the bullpens and rookie starters 3-5, and defense. Add to that Baldelli’s inability to manage his starters and ownership back to their old Pohlad penny pinching, and the season has become a disaster! They don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. Detroit has earned that right, given their surge for the last two months. Go Tigers! 

[Mark G]

According to Matthew, we are playing the Orioles in the playoffs this weekend,  🤭

[IndyTwinsFan]

On 9/25/2024 at 10:13 AM, Mark G said:

According to Matthew, we are playing the Orioles in the playoffs this weekend,  🤭

Because it's not happening next week.