Twins need more from their offense, not their pitching

[Muppet]

As everyone continues to boil and simmer over the inability of ownership to pick up a top line starter or a left handed reliever, I posit that the biggest area of need is offense. Of course there have occasionally been times when the Okerts, Funderburks, or Thielbars of the team have given up large masses of runs in an inning blowing a game. I'd also note that Duran's ERA is unreasonably high for a closer. But when scoring 3 or more runs, the Twins fare better than all of the top 9 teams in the AL. 

I had a little fun with spreadsheets and looked at the teams in the AL with the most wins.

	Gu2	Lu2	wu2	wO2	w	l	T	G3+	W%3+
mn	30	30	0	59	59	48	107	77	0.766
sea	40	35	5	52	57	53	110	70	0.743
cle	30	28	2	64	66	52	118	88	0.727
bal	26	22	4	61	65	45	110	84	0.726
hou	31	30	1	55	56	52	108	77	0.714
bos	31	28	3	54	57	50	107	76	0.711
kcr	31	26	5	56	61	49	110	79	0.709
tbr	40	33	7	48	55	53	108	68	0.706
nyy	26	20	6	59	65	45	110	84	0.702

(Gu2 = games under 2 runs; Lu2 Losses with under 2 runs; wu2 wins under 2 runs; w02 wins over 2 runs; w wins; l losses; t total games; G3+ games over 3 runs w%3+ win pct over 3 runs)

First, the Twins are unique among the group in that they have zero wins when scoring 2 runs or fewer. Conversely, they have the highest win percentage when scoring more than 3 runs at 76.6% of games won. To me that suggests that, despite the numbers (and without spending another hour looking into the stats more deeply), the Twins really have been holding it together on the mound. Yes a left handed reliever that can get 1-2 extra wins over the remainder of the season would be great, but having fewer games with anemic offense would win more games. 

So here's to getting past the boring trade deadline and hoping for offensive surges, improvements from the bottom of the barrel, and healthful and continued returns from the likes of Correa, Miranda, and Lewis, etc... 

IF they make it to the playoffs, anything is possible. If they continue to lay offensive eggs, we'll just have to move on.... pick up a new hobby, or get into hockey or something.  Who knows, maybe if Pablo gets his old mojo back, they'll even win a couple of 2-1 games. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Twins are 9th in runs scored, and 19th in era......

[Muppet]

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins are 9th in runs scored, and 19th in era......

And yet they have the highest win percentage than other AL teams when they score more than 2 runs in a game. Which is exactly why you have to look deeper into the numbers to figure out what is going on. When they beat the Rockies 20-2 for example, it only counts as one win.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Muppet said:

And yet they have the highest win percentage than other AL teams when they score more than 2 runs in a game. Which is exactly why you have to look deeper into the numbers to figure out what is going on. When they beat the Rockies 20-2 for example, it only counts as one win.

It's irrelevant at this point, I guess. The deadline is passed. Have a great day!

[August J Gloop]

On 8/2/2024 at 5:52 PM, Muppet said:

And yet they have the highest win percentage than other AL teams when they score more than 2 runs in a game. Which is exactly why you have to look deeper into the numbers to figure out what is going on. When they beat the Rockies 20-2 for example, it only counts as one win.

And when they lost to the Mets 2-1,000 it was only 1 loss. Their strand percentage is lower than league average this year on d and higher on o. As they creeps back toward average, their ERA will trickle down, and the run scoring up. They're a Top 5 pitching team by SIERA, XFIP, FIP, K/9 and hitting team by WRC+, OPS, Run expectancy, so on etc. Heck their fielding metrics are surprisingly top 10.

But that's why they play the games. The random outcomes are where the fun hangs out. 

[Possumlad]

On 8/2/2024 at 5:52 PM, Muppet said:

And yet they have the highest win percentage than other AL teams when they score more than 2 runs in a game. Which is exactly why you have to look deeper into the numbers to figure out what is going on. When they beat the Rockies 20-2 for example, it only counts as one win.

I appreciate the work, but I believe this is a misunderstanding of statistics & averages. The overall results & long-term reversion to the mean would suggest the opposite of what you are. Relative to the rest of the league, better pitching going forward would help the Twins more than better hitting (assuming you can only choose one or the other). 

[Craig Arko]

How about both?

[Muppet]

21 hours ago, Possumlad said:

I appreciate the work, but I believe this is a misunderstanding of statistics & averages. The overall results & long-term reversion to the mean would suggest the opposite of what you are. Relative to the rest of the league, better pitching going forward would help the Twins more than better hitting (assuming you can only choose one or the other). 

Well thanks for your willingness to let me experiment with parsing the numbers in ways that help me tell stories to myself. I'd suggest that with 83 games where the Twins have scored more than 3 runs that this IS the mean and further variance should be expected to remain close to 76% (of games won with 3+ runs). 

I am having issues with the league this year because it seems to me that there are far more awful teams than normal and fewer really good teams than normal. So when we look at the numbers as stated in baseball reference they aren't telling the full story. The Twins are doing great against some teams and racking up huge runs in many games. But when they play the above average teams they are more likely to not be able to push those runs through. 

Yes I realize pitching numbers are bad, but when you are blowing a team out, you are more free to use your Funderburks, Sands, Okerts, etc.. and can withstand giving up more runs. 

My whole point is that while they could definitely use better pithing (who couldn't), when they are actually losing games it is more often because the opposing team has figured out a way to make batter after batter sit down. 

Ultimately, I don't think that adding one marginally better pitcher or hitter to the team would make too much a difference if they don't first figure out how other teams are able to exploit their hitting weaknesses and make the necessary adjustments. If they can do THAT, they'll be able to get far into the playoffs. 

[jaimedude]

The Twins need to start having better at bat's with runners in scoring position. Just to many guys are tryng to do too much and chase everything the pitcher is throwing. Work the count and drive the baseball on a pitch you know you can hit. The strikeouts and failing to at least advance runners especially by the rookies is telling, but even a guys  like Castro, Buxton,  Jeffers strikes out a lot in these run scoring opportunities. 

 

[nicksaviking]

On 8/2/2024 at 1:39 PM, Muppet said:

IF they make it to the playoffs, anything is possible. If they continue to lay offensive eggs, we'll just have to move on.... pick up a new hobby, or get into hockey or something.  Who knows, maybe if Pablo gets his old mojo back, they'll even win a couple of 2-1 games. 

 

Here's the problem with your argument though. Sure, the Twins offense needs to pick it up, but in the playoffs, you basically scrap the back of your rotation. Doesn't matter if it's Chris Paddock, Michael Lorenzen or Walter Johnson; they're a reliever at best in the post season. 

Always improve the front of the rotation. Top end starters have a shot at making up for bats who may take a day off.