Final: Mariners 3, Twins 2: Minnesota Misplays Cost A Victory

[USAFChief]

55 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I have a slightly different lineup in mind -

Castro LF

Correa SS

Miranda/Lewis 3B/1B/DH (whoever is hotter, right now Miranda)

Santana 3B/1B/DH 

Buxton CF

Lewis/Miranda 3B/1B/DH

Lee 2B (up for Martin or Larnach, Castro goes to LF) 

Jeffers C

Kepler/Margot platoon RF

 

I don't think Larnach is going anywhere, nor should he. League average OPS, been hitting a lot of line drives lately.

[IndianaTwin]

11 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

...   The '27 Yankees could not win with Vasquez in the lineup.

Only because they are dead.

However, I would take my chances with the '27 version of Coombs, Koenig, Ruth, Gehrig, Meusel, Lazzeri, Dugan, Vasquez (2024 version), pitcher.  

[IndianaTwin]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

One more question - the short video clip makes me think the error could have gone to Santana as much as Miranda.  Does Santana's reputation protect him?

The throw was in the dirt. Virtually any throw that hits the dirt is going to be charged to the thrower, even though I'm sure Santana would say he should have (and probably has) made the play. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think Larnach is going anywhere, nor should he. League average OPS, been hitting a lot of line drives lately.

Me either, and Austin Martin is batting .400 since his callup.

[bean5302]

23 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think Larnach is going anywhere, nor should he. League average OPS, been hitting a lot of line drives lately.

 

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Me either, and Austin Martin is batting .400 since his callup.

I don't know about Larnach. He's pumpkin-izing back to his old self in terms of production.
 

Pitch Type	Pitch %	Exp. Pitches	2021	2022	2023	2024
Fastball	28%	448	4	2	0	18
Slider	18%	288	-4	7	2	-5
Changeup	18%	288	-8	-7	-2	-10
Curveball	11%	176	1	-4	-3	-3
Sinker	9%	144	-3	4	2	-3
Cutter	6%	96	-4	-4	5	5
Splitter	5%	80	0	-6	4	-3
Other	5%	80	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	1600

Haven't posted an update on his pitch weakness in a bit, but it's clear the offspeed and breaking stuff is starting to give him near universal fits again.
Last 20 games
72 PA .224/.264/.388 OPS .652 wRC+ 83, 5.6% BB, 15.3% K
Last 30 games
109 PA .200/.257/.370 OPS .627 wRC+ 77, 7.3% BB, 16.5% K

He's not the same hitter as he was in year past. He's more aggressive at the plate and it did pay dividends during a searing 11 game hot streak 4/22-5/8, but outside that, his production has been pretty poor. It seems Larnach likely truly cannot identify non-fastballs like I had assumed for a years now. Comments about a shortened swing to help him make adjustments as the reason he was turning a corner made sense, but it just seems more likely he's at his limits.

xwOBA suggests Larnach has been victimized by bad luck, but most of his Statcast data has been average to above average over the past few weeks.

Statcast's rolling 100 plate appearances suggests Larnach's xwOBA is well above average, but I don't see much which would tie to that.
5/17-6/29 = 101 PA
17.3% Line Drive (poor), 48.1% Ground Ball (poor), 14.3% HR:FB rate (good), 90.9mph (avg), 9.9% barrel (above average), 37.0% hard hit (below average).

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

 

I don't know about Larnach. He's pumpkin-izing back to his old self in terms of production.
 

Pitch Type	Pitch %	Exp. Pitches	2021	2022	2023	2024
Fastball	28%	448	4	2	0	18
Slider	18%	288	-4	7	2	-5
Changeup	18%	288	-8	-7	-2	-10
Curveball	11%	176	1	-4	-3	-3
Sinker	9%	144	-3	4	2	-3
Cutter	6%	96	-4	-4	5	5
Splitter	5%	80	0	-6	4	-3
Other	5%	80	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	1600

Haven't posted an update on his pitch weakness in a bit, but it's clear the offspeed and breaking stuff is starting to give him near universal fits again.
Last 20 games
72 PA .224/.264/.388 OPS .652 wRC+ 83, 5.6% BB, 15.3% K
Last 30 games
109 PA .200/.257/.370 OPS .627 wRC+ 77, 7.3% BB, 16.5% K

He's not the same hitter as he was in year past. He's more aggressive at the plate and it did pay dividends during a searing 11 game hot streak 4/22-5/8, but outside that, his production has been pretty poor. It seems Larnach likely truly cannot identify non-fastballs like I had assumed for a years now. Comments about a shortened swing to help him make adjustments as the reason he was turning a corner made sense, but it just seems more likely he's at his limits.

xwOBA suggests Larnach has been victimized by bad luck, but most of his Statcast data has been average to above average over the past few weeks.

Statcast's rolling 100 plate appearances suggests Larnach's xwOBA is well above average, but I don't see much which would tie to that.
5/17-6/29 = 101 PA
17.3% Line Drive (poor), 48.1% Ground Ball (poor), 14.3% HR:FB rate (good), 90.9mph (avg), 9.9% barrel (above average), 37.0% hard hit (below average).

 

Heh

[KirbyDome89]

On 6/29/2024 at 2:57 PM, DJL44 said:

The other teams get to face bad pitching too. It isn't like the Twins are the only teams who get to play the White Sox and Rockies.

There are complaints that the best pitchers shut down the Twins lineup. That's what the best pitchers do - they shut down other teams. That's why they're the best pitchers.

They're not the murderer's row Yankees but in a year where offense has been difficult to find for most teams the Twins are doing pretty well.

They do, but assessing any team after 15-20 consecutive games against the dregs of MLB pitching is no doubt going to alter how they're viewed offensively. 

That can't constantly be the excuse, at least if we're going to argue for the Twins as a top tier offensive team. They can't go into their shell every time a good pitcher takes the mound.