Early Returns on the Borris Four.

[Trov]

After Otani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the top four free agents last year were all Borris clients and called the Borris Four.  Two pitchers entering age 31 seasons, and two position players, a gold glove 3rd baseman with average offense, but had prior above average offense seasons, he would be entering his age 31 season as well.  Then a former MVP average defending OF coming off a big bounce back season, entering age 28 season.

All four wanted big pay days.  The pitchers were coming off big seasons, Snell winning his second Cy Young, and Montgomery coming off a huge run leading to WS win for Texas.  Bellinger had huge second half for Cubs and many thought he might be back to his former MVP form after having several injury filled years.  Chapman was always top defender and had a great April that helped keep his offense stats average over the year. 

Some on here wanted the Twins to target some of them, not Chapman, but the other three were mentioned, and talks heated up as spring training started and all four remained unsigned.  The 7 year deals they were looking for clearly were not coming.  Many thought the "pillow" contract similar to what Correa signed with Twins would be coming.  All four signed the "pillow" contract.  A "pillow" contract is a shorter term contract, with player options each year to opt out if they perform to a level they feel will warrant a better long term contract, but allows the safety of a life changing payday if injuries or performance is poor.  

I was not big on any of the four because of the cost expected and their big red flags in their careers.  Not going to go deep into each players red flags, but there was a reason no team was willing to go the 7 year high value reportedly being asked for. 

Lets look at the pitchers first.  I have said the tactic of a pitch holding out into spring training has generally not paid off because the pitcher is behind and generally has worse season.  This has been no different.  Blake Snell, the 2 time Cy Young winner, but his only 2 great seasons, signed with the Giants.  He has made 6 starts, a bWAR of -1.1 with ERA of 9.51 FIP 4.63(career worst) was injured for a month, not uncommon for Snell, and has not pitched 5 innings in a start yet.  He signed a 2 year deal with opt out after first year, similar to Rondon did for Giants.  So far, not looking good for Giants as he is making 32 mil this year and on hook for 30 next year, and unless he makes huge turn around, Snell will not opt out of the 30 mil next year.

Montgomery, the lessor of the two pitchers, was hoping to cash in on a hot run in his contract season.  He has been a little better than Snell, but still having career lows in ERA and FIP.  He has 10 starts, but still has bWAR -1.0.  His K-rate is 5.5 compared to career 8.2.  His walk rate is up too.  His contract was for 1 year, but with vesting options, which he hit and as season goes on the cost goes up.  Another contract not looking good for the team.  

Matt Chapman signed with the Giants on a possibly four year deal, but really three year deal with player options on each year.  The forth is a mutual option, which are almost never picked up. Each year is for about 19 mil on average.  His defense has remained good, and his offense has been league average.  Really, he has been what he has for years. Good defender with average offense.  Giants got what they expected, but for Chapman it will be interesting to see what he decides to do if rest of the year plays out the same. 

Cody Bellinger, the top of the four by most assessments, resigned with Cubs, after his prove it contract.  His contract is a three year deal averaging 27 mil with player options each year.  He was a former rookie of the year, and MVP as a young future super star.  Then things turned to almost unplayable for years, in part due to injuries.  He signed a 1 year prove it deal that injuries were behind him.  He had hot start, then injuries in May and June slowed him down, but his July was things of legend, and he rode that into a great second half, but faded late.  This year he is putting up above average offense, nothing amazing.  His defense is slightly below average. It will be interesting to see if he has a second half surge similar to last year.  If not, and he rides out this year as he is, he will be in a tough call in opting in or not. 

Overall, the pitchers are failing and barring huge turn around will be opting in next year.  Chapman is doing what he does, that mean he opts in or hopes for better?  He has new agent now too.  Bellinger is doing less than his peak years but better than his injury years.  Is this the Bellinger going forward, and is he worth more than 27 a year?  

[Doctor Gast]

I was with you Trov. Too much money & too many red flags. They got lot less than they asked & deserved much less than that.

[Trov]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was with you Trov. Too much money & too many red flags. They got lot less than they asked & deserved much less than that.

Chapman was not much of a red flag, no need for him with Twins, but he was asking was much more than what someone in his position deserves.  It was more of seeking pay for what he did for his 2018 2019 seasons, his two best.  Also, those 2 he was not much above league average, but above league average.  He is a good player that is great on defense, not the best, and slightly above average on offense. 

Montgomery his issue was he was seeking an Aaron Nola level contract, as reported, which on the face seemed to line up, similar age at contract, similar ERA and FIP, but the innings per start was less, and K rate much lower.  No one never looked at Montgomery and said there is an ace to carry us, but he wanted that money. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Boras is a dinosaur. This isn't 2003 when you have the Yankees handing out silly money. The market is set early on in the off-season. Very difficult to re-set that market when its only a handful of players that are looking for mega contracts - and in some cases, those players don't deserve that kind of money.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Boras is a dinosaur. This isn't 2003 when you have the Yankees handing out silly money. The market is set early on in the off-season. Very difficult to re-set that market when its only a handful of players that are looking for mega contracts - and in some cases, those players don't deserve that kind of money.

Feel free to look at the MLB payrolls real quick. There's plenty of "silly money" being handed out across the league. 9 teams are over the luxury tax threshold this year.

The issue in this past season's case, and previous under Boras, is teams weren't willing to buy in on one year wonders or ignore a bunch of red flags like they didn't even exist.  We also saw this the year prior with Correa's deal dropping from 13/350 with SF to 6/200 with MN. Boras has been pushing the market to ignore red flags, and it seems like he's found the limit after the players seemed to massively overplay their hands. Contracts had been getting longer and longer, but I think that trend is cutting back.

[bean5302]

Jordan Montgomery wasn't a guy I wanted to target since I just didn't feel like he was elite. At the price points pitchers went, Sonny Gray was a no brainer. Just another round of Derek Falvey and the shiny things distracting him.

I also thought Snell/Boras were absolutely out of their minds seeking $200MM, but I'd have been interested in him on a pillow deal, just not as late as he finally signed or for the money in the current year because he'd have missed at least the first month for a reasonable team. The Giants decided to toss Snell out there without any Spring Training, and... imagine this now... it didn't work out.

Snell's only making $15MM this year, FWIW, it's that $17MM signing bonus payable in 2026 that gets nuts.

In regard to their performances:

• Chapman is exactly what you'd expect. On pace for a 4 WAR season with a bit better than an average bat and good defense. Scorching good deal for SF at just 1/$18MM (3/54 total with player options)
• Bellinger is good. wRC+ 117, playing solid CF. His value is down because the Cubs are DH'ing him, but he'd be a 5 WAR pace guy playing CF full time. He's on a one year deal, and he'll be opting out. Good deal, even at 1/30MM.
• Snell was allowed to pitch right out of the gate and he clearly wasn't ready. Plenty of time for him to rebound, and quite frankly, I don't think the Twins would have been on board with him pitching MLB without an extended ramp up in the minors. I think he'll opt in, but that opt in could actually be a bonus for SF next year. There's also plenty of time left this year for Snell to right the ship as the K's are there, he's just missing too often. I don't think declaring this a bad/good deal is possible yet.
• Montgomery is the tough one. His velocity is down, which turned some K's into BB's and HRs. He'll be opting in for next year almost certainly as his vesting option has vested.

So one great deal, one good deal, one questionable deal and one bad one.

 

[DocBauer]

IMO, one of the biggest issues with these kinds of deals is you only have the player in question for a single season guaranteed, barring them performing poorly and opting to stick around. And while I don't want to generalize too much, it just seems every time a pitcher signs late he's behind everyone else and either has a bad season, or at least a bad start to the year.

Payrolls have been steadily increasing and more than a handful of teams are over the tax threshold from what bean5302 states. A  lot of teams have lost their big TV deals, or are about to. I think we're going to see a lot of craziness over the next few years!

With all due respect to a 2 time Cy Young winner, I've never been a big Snell fan. He's just had too m any injuries and too many mediocre years mixed in with his 2 great ones that I just wasn't interested in a deal for him.

I would have absolutely been in on Montgomery...for 1 year at least...had the payroll situation been different. I don't think he was worth what he was asking, but I liked what he ultimately ended up signing for, for this season. Good thing we didn't get him, I guess.

No real fit for Chapman.

Bellinger would have been nice. But man, I understand 2 just bad years due to injuries, but no way I would have done anything close to a 7 year deal for the $ based on a 1 year bounce back. But his 3 year deal is much more palatable, even at $27M per. Going to be interesting to see if he opts in with the fluctuation in the market I'm expecting this offseason. Even without a payroll cut, I don't think the Twins would have grabbed Bellinger for $27M per.

 

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Jordan Montgomery wasn't a guy I wanted to target since I just didn't feel like he was elite. At the price points pitchers went, Sonny Gray was a no brainer. Just another round of Derek Falvey and the shiny things distracting him.

I also thought Snell/Boras were absolutely out of their minds seeking $200MM, but I'd have been interested in him on a pillow deal, just not as late as he finally signed or for the money in the current year because he'd have missed at least the first month for a reasonable team. The Giants decided to toss Snell out there without any Spring Training, and... imagine this now... it didn't work out.

Snell's only making $15MM this year, FWIW, it's that $17MM signing bonus payable in 2026 that gets nuts.

In regard to their performances:

• Chapman is exactly what you'd expect. On pace for a 4 WAR season with a bit better than an average bat and good defense. Scorching good deal for SF at just 1/$18MM (3/54 total with player options)
• Bellinger is good. wRC+ 117, playing solid CF. His value is down because the Cubs are DH'ing him, but he'd be a 5 WAR pace guy playing CF full time. He's on a one year deal, and he'll be opting out. Good deal, even at 1/30MM.
• Snell was allowed to pitch right out of the gate and he clearly wasn't ready. Plenty of time for him to rebound, and quite frankly, I don't think the Twins would have been on board with him pitching MLB without an extended ramp up in the minors. I think he'll opt in, but that opt in could actually be a bonus for SF next year. There's also plenty of time left this year for Snell to right the ship as the K's are there, he's just missing too often. I don't think declaring this a bad/good deal is possible yet.
• Montgomery is the tough one. His velocity is down, which turned some K's into BB's and HRs. He'll be opting in for next year almost certainly as his vesting option has vested.

So one great deal, one good deal, one questionable deal and one bad one.

 

Chapman and Bellinger are good...not great...

And for what they are getting paid pretty bad. Not sure where you are getting "scorching," "great," and even "good."

I'd be pissed if Twins signed that production for that money.

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Chapman and Bellinger are good...not great...

And for what they are getting paid pretty bad. Not sure where you are getting "scorching," "great," and even "good."

I'd be pissed if Twins signed that production for that money.

No team in baseball wouldn't want to add a 4 WAR (All Star level) player. Guess All Stars are "good" not "great" Both Bellinger and Chapman are on pace to perform at about that level. Btw, no Twins position player on the team put up 4 WAR last year.

Being angry about a team spending $3.5MM-7.5MM per WAR for a one year contract on a well known, veteran player who isn't in the twilight of their career in free agency is highly unusual to say the least.

[Vanimal46]

I wanted Bellinger last winter and I’ll want him again this winter. He’s the perfect CF/1B insurance for this roster. 

[cmoss84]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No team in baseball wouldn't want to add a 4 WAR (All Star level) player. Guess All Stars are "good" not "great" Both Bellinger and Chapman are on pace to perform at about that level. Btw, no Twins position player on the team put up 4 WAR last year.

Being angry about a team spending $3.5MM-7.5MM per WAR for a one year contract on a well known, veteran player who isn't in the twilight of their career in free agency is highly unusual to say the least.

Chapman .236 average and barely above .700 OPS. Still probably worth that contract if he stays healthy...but scorching deal??? Guess we disagree.

Bellinger is on pace to be about 2.3 WAR. Worth 27.5m? Again, I guess we just disagree. All good.

[cmoss84]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I wanted Bellinger last winter and I’ll want him again this winter. He’s the perfect CF/1B insurance for this roster. 

You want him for $30/yr?

Instead of an ace or someone else?

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

You want him for $30/yr?

Instead of an ace or someone else?

Probably if he continues to produce like 2023. Falvey won’t spend big money for a pitcher. That’s not bashing him, I agree with the logic. We won’t be in the running for Soto and I highly doubt Goldschmidt is going to be a real free agent. So Bellinger is the best option if he opts our. 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Probably if he continues to produce like 2023. Falvey won’t spend big money for a pitcher. That’s not bashing him, I agree with the logic. We won’t be in the running for Soto and I highly doubt Goldschmidt is going to be a real free agent. So Bellinger is the best option if he opts our. 

I don't think there's any likelihood Bellinger commands $30MM AAV on a multi-year deal at this point, and he'll definitely be looking for a long term contract. If he finishes the year at a wRC+ of 117, I'd think he'll get something around 5-6yrs $100-150MM or so.

The Twins don't have the pockets for it, IMHO, though. I was hoping they'd pry Jarren Duran away from the Red Sox this past offseason.

[Vanimal46]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think there's any likelihood Bellinger commands $30MM AAV on a multi-year deal at this point, and he'll definitely be looking for a long term contract. If he finishes the year at a wRC+ of 117, I'd think he'll get something around 5-6yrs $100-150MM or so.

The Twins don't have the pockets for it, IMHO, though. I was hoping they'd pry Jarren Duran away from the Red Sox this past offseason.

I’m with you and agree that’s a good estimate for his next contract. It’s a long shot just like it’s been the previous 2 offseasons he’s been available. He’s the guy I want in an ideal world.