Veterans trending up.............and down

[stringer bell]

A couple of weeks ago, the critics were all over the Twins for their second-rate acquisitions in the off season along with the decisions to keep veteran part-time players on the payroll.  Four players were singled out--Carlos Santana, Cristian Vázquez, Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot. 

It seems all of these guys are on the upswing. Santana is getting regular at-bats as the Twins first baseman and with a good game yesterday got his OPS+ over 100. He's second on the club in homers and RBI and would project to come in with something like 25 homers and 80 RBI for a full season. For the last four weeks, his OPS is .814, for the last two weeks, the OPS is .998 and in the last week his OPS is .943. He's improved his OPS versus right hand pitching to .678, which is below average, but not severely so.

Vázquez has improved lately as well. In the last seven days, he's put up an OPS of 1.345, his two-week OPS is .970 and in the last four weeks, he has on OPS of .623, not great, but totally acceptable for a defense-first catcher.

Farmer also has trended up in the last month after a terrible start. His last seven day OPS is .733, two week interval is .844 and for the last four weeks, he has an OPS of .751.

Finally, Margot has started to hit a little as well. His last seven days OPS is 1.433, two weeks--1.066 and four weeks--.912 OPS.

What does this mean? Well, I think regression to the mean is a thing. All four of these guys started out cold as ice and it only figured that they would return to some sort of decent level. Secondly, perhaps patience is a good thing for a manager and front office to display. Finally, I don't think we should be saying that this warm streak for all four players vindicates the front office. Vázquez, Margot and Farmer still have negative WAR because of their brutal starts and Santana logs in at +.6, not exactly All-Star quality. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

None of this is regression to the mean.....it's insanely above their mean. But, it is good news for these games for sure. Very good news. I hope no one expects this to continue (I'd expect them to do what they did last year, give or take). 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Well put. The recent hot streaks from these four have been great but we shouldn't expect them to continue. All 4 look like serviceable vets, Santana maybe a little better than that. We can win with guys like this; it's just you don't win because of guys like this. I'd like to see a little more Miranda at 1B this year with a little less Santana to set us up for next year.  Other than that, they do provide some back of the roster value and Rocco is using them the right way. 

Let's be honest, it's not like any of these 4 are holding back another Royce Lewis or even another Jose Miranda from getting a shot. The only AAA guys who look like they've earned that shot are Martin (now back up) and maybe Helman. Until we have a viable replacement who can perform at least as well, I see no reason not to keep these guys around. 

[stringer bell]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

None of this is regression to the mean.....it's insanely above their mean. But, it is good news for these games for sure. Very good news. I hope no one expects this to continue (I'd expect them to do what they did last year, give or take). 

Over the course of the season it is regression to the mean. I’m not predicting anything close to sustaining their hot spells for any of these guys. As I said, three of the four have negative WAR. All four would project to being better than a replacement player over the course of a season. 

[DocBauer]

I don't know that Santana can keep up what he's generally being doing since the first couple of weeks, but he's encouraging. 

Margot is hot, and I'm willing to accept the fact that he will settle down and just be the AVERAGE career producer he's been in his career. But I need more than a couple of weeks before I think he's part of the equation for the remainder of this season. Unfortunately, I still have questions about Martin. People fall in love with his OB% and SB potential, and fail to realize his power...except for a solid 1/2 of a season in 2023...is pretty bad. I can still a scenario where Margot just bottoms out, and Martin isn't the answer, and a journeyman like Helman gets a shot.

I love Farmer as a clubhouse guy and a gamer. He's been better. But can he climb out of this hole? What if July 1st Julien and Lee are BOTH doing well? Potentially, there might be room for both depending on injuries and the such.

I don't believe Vazquez is going anywhere NOW. I feel Santana might stick the whole season if his body doesn't wear out. But Margot and Farmer are still major question marks.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I suspect you're right and would go even a step father - Vasquez and Santana are here for the year. I would hope that the catching is more 60/40 or even 65/35 Jeffers come August and September, and that Miranda is playing 75% of the time and at least in a 50/50 time share at 1B with Santana by then. I see a slow transition to next year where Jeffers is the starting Catcher 2/3 of the time and Miranda the primary 1B.   

Margot and Farmer are Wild Cards whose status almost entirely depends on the play of others. If Lee and Julien are both ready to play regularly at the MLB level in July, there is no room for Farmer on the roster. If only one or neither is, or if there is a significant injury to Correa or Lewis (God forbid), Farmer is here for the rest of the year. If Martin hits and either Wallner shows he can return to what he was in the good items of 2023 or Keirsey forces his way up, there is no place for Margot.  People complain about Martin's lack of power but Margot has no power either. Both Farmer and Margot's situation is also complicated by their salaries for 2025 - both are likely FA but probably expect to be in the same range as this year - Margot at $10m (2025 mutual $12m option with a $2m buyout), and Farmer at $6.3m (2025 $6.25m mutual option, 250K buyout). There is an almost Zero chance either will be back at anything close to that kind of a number. I suspect the plan is to ease them out IF we have someone who deserves a look as their replacements, particularly since is far from given that Kepler will be back next year. 

Bottom line is that absent injury I expect Santana and Vasquez to be here for the rest of 2023, with their playing time decreasing as the season wears on. Margot and Farmer are much more at risk but likely to be here all year unless someone really forces the FO's hand. We have 6 weeks or so to make these decisions so now is the time if you're any of the AAA guys. 

[stringer bell]

I didn't mention veterans trending down and I'm glad I didn't mention Max Kepler. 🙃

Veteran pitcher Caleb Thielbar has had a very rough go so far. I don't know how far the leash extends. Okert has been up and down, but lately has pitched better.

[DocBauer]

20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I didn't mention veterans trending down and I'm glad I didn't mention Max Kepler. 🙃

Veteran pitcher Caleb Thielbar has had a very rough go so far. I don't know how far the leash extends. Okert has been up and down, but lately has pitched better.

I wish I had a clue what's up with Thielbar and whether or not he was going to rebound. I'm sure he and the Twins feel the same way.

I've watched his curve look just as good as ever. And I've seen him throwing 94 just like he did last season. But SOMETHING is missing. Did missing all of ST just throw off his schedule and he's going to get ironed out for the 2nd half and be a quality and important part of the pen again? Or is this just the year where his stuff doesn't bite like it used to and everyone feels comfortable sitting back and waiting for a pitch?

I'm sure hoping it's mechanical and he can turn it around. I've seen other LH pen arms pitch decently in to their late 30's.

I generally like Okert. Unfortunately, he leaves a pitch up once in a while that gets crushed. Not sure that makes him different than most any other reliever though. I'd say he's pretty good 80% of the time? Mediocre about 10% of the time, and bad about 10%? I can take that.

I love Funderburk's stuff and ability to get batters from both sides out. I don't like that he battles control about every other game and has to get two guys on base before settling down and looking nasty. 

I think Okert and Funderburk are solid, but the pen's even deeper if the veteran Thielbar still has life left. But it's why I think a pen arm might be a trade target this season.