2024 MLB Draft Preview: Midwest Highlights

[Jeremy Nygaard]

2024 MLB draft coverage is kicking off with positional previews. This update comes with a slight deviation as it’s not a specific position group, but instead a geographical group. Who are the players from the Midwest region drawing the interest of professional scouts?

We’re excited to ratchet up 2024 MLB Draft content in the coming weeks. We’ll start with a series of articles detailing each positional demographic. These pieces aren’t meant to be an exhaustive list, rather, an overview of the caliber of talent at the position (or, in this case, region).. For each player, we'll run down some basic information, in addition to some strengths and weaknesses. You’ll also find their current position on the Consensus MLB Draft Board in parentheses next to their name. 

This “local” group has a couple of players who should hear their name called on Day One, plus more who could be drafted on the second day. One of the caveats here, though, is that many midwest prep players make their way to college campuses. 

Brody Brecht RHP, Iowa (18)
A former two-sport college athlete at Iowa (baseball and football), Brody Brecht dropped football (WR) to concentrate on pitching full-time ahead of his junior season in 2024. At 6'4, 235 pounds, Brecht has some of the most dominant stuff in the history of college baseball.

Brecht is an exceptional athlete with an incredibly quick arm who has added some deception to his delivery by shortening his arm stroke in his time at Iowa.

The stuff is 'Skenesian', headlined by a fastball that averaged 97.5 mph in 2023. He runs it up to 101mph, but it sits in the high 90s in games, with plenty of run. Brecht's best secondary offering is a diabolical slider that he throws, leveraging two different shapes, one with more bite, and the other with more sweep. It has the potential to be a double-plus pitch and generates a ton of whiffs. Brecht has also added a splitter, which is newer in his arsenal, and thrown a curve, although less frequently than the FB/SL one-two punch.

Entering 2024, Brecht's Achilles heal was control and command and he didn’t do much this season to qualm those concerns. In 78 1/3 innings, he walked 49, threw 10 wild pitches and hit 12 batters. It’s easy to see top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s just as easy to see giant reliever risk. Some team, though, will look past the risk and add an elite arm to their organization.

Caleb Bonemer R/R SS/3B, Okemos HS, MI (38)
Bonemer was one of the biggest board risers on the prep side this winter after a great summer in 2023. He is one of the better athletic profiles and potentially one of the most exciting power/speed combinations in the 2024 class. The prep is committed to Virginia, which has been able to sway a number of players to skip the draft in the last handful of years.

A quiet, efficient, short swing produces good bat speed and Bonemer is already showing above-average in-game power (typically to the pull side) that may eventually become plus power.
Defensively, he's a solid mover with an above average arm at shortstop who can make all the throws. He may eventually grow off shortstop to third base, but it'd be potentially plus defense there with the offensive profile to make it not matter. Bonemer has also posted plus run times, making him a threat on the base paths and in the run game.

One area of opportunity is refining his approach some at the plate, as there's some swing and miss and a bit too much chase in the profile currently. If he can work through those needs and get the hit tool to average, it's going to be a strong overall profile and one of the first prep names to go in July.

Joey Oakie RHP, Ankeny Centennial HS, IA (40)
Throwing from a low launch and lower three-quarter slot, prep righty Joey Oakie has some of the best stuff of any high school pitcher in the 2024 class. A long athletic frame with projection left and a quick, whippy arm is indicative that there is likely more in the tank for Oakie, velocity-wise.

On the mound, he throws a fastball that's been up to 97 mph with a ton of run. It's one of the most movement-heavy fastballs in the class. One wonders, given his release, if he might add a four-seamer to play up in the zone further down his development path.

For secondaries, Oakie has a nasty slider. It has downward bite and a ton of sweep and has generated upwards of 20 inches of horizontal movement, with gaudy spin rates to match. Oakie also has a changeup, that is a fringy, developmental pitch (that he hasn't needed much). Oakie has the athleticism and actions to have at least average control. Add that to the excellent fastball/slider package and there's excellent clay to mold.

Oakie is committed to Iowa, but given his projection to be drafted on the first day, there’s little reason to believe he will ever pitch for the Hawkeyes.

Dante Nori L/L OF, Northville HS, MI (78)
Nori is an intriguing prospect. One of the oldest prepsters in the draft class, he'll turn 20 a few months after the draft and is likely maxed out in terms of physical projection. Despite those minor dings, he has an explosive and intriguing skillset for a drafting organization.

The Mississippi State commit has a stocky, muscular frame, with an incredible amount of strength for an undersized player. At the plate it's a quiet operation, with a short, compact, and direct swing. There's currently mostly line drive present power there, but Nori pulls the ball in the air to good effect and maybe projects for average power when he's had some pro instruction.

Nori has easy plus speed and may be the fastest player in the draft class, making him a menace on the base paths.  Defensively, there's an above-average arm to go with elite speed that makes him a great bet to stick in centerfield long-term for his defensive home.

Nori's draft stock will be interesting to monitor to see how teams ding his age and lack of projection, but this is an above-average to plus hit tool with elite speed at a premium defensive position.

Also of note, Dante is the son of Timberwolves assistant coach Micah Nori. Micah played collegiately at Indiana.

Blake Larson LHP, IMG Academy (96)
What’s local about Bradenton, Florida? Well, not much. But Larson was born in Iowa before finishing his prep career at IMG Academy. Larson is a left-handed pitcher with a projectable frame, loud stuff, and tough to pick up arm slot.

There's a lot going on in Larson's delivery, it's pretty high effort with plenty of moving parts. It's undoubtedly a quick arm though, and Larson's release and angle generate plenty of horizontal movement on his pitches.

His fastball sits in the low 90s but has been as high as 97mph in shorter outings with run. Larson also has an excellent sweeper, which generates a ton of horizontal movement and is extremely tough for hitters to pick up. As with many prep arms, Larson has a changeup, but it's more of an emerging pitch for him.

Larson's profile is a great mix of present velocity and stuff from the left side. I'd anticipate quietening down the operation on the mound and finding a consistent third pitch will be key if he's to stick as a starter long-term.

Honorable Mentions: Drew Rerick, RHP (140), J.D Dix, SS (144), 

Who excites you from the Midwest region in 2024? Who are you higher on than other prospects? Jump into the draft conversation in the comments below.

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Find more draft coverage here:

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Third Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Shortstops

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Catcher

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[Dman]

I kind of hate pitchers with control problems.  Just not reliable in critical situations.  Still I can see going for it if they drop to right spot.

I am pretty high on Nori, but I am a sucker for the hit\speed profile.  I get that power\hit is hard to find and the most coveted, but guys that can play up the middle defense and get on base are pretty important too IMO.  I think if his hit tool is solid he will be taken in the first round but hard to say given the competition in the top 30.

[Dman]

I am wondering what the Twins draft strategy might be for this upcoming draft.  They have an extra 1^st and 2^nd round pick this year so they could go bat, arm, bat, arm and keep things even or they could go bat, bat, arm, arm or perhaps bat, bat, bat, arm?  I recently looked at where guys on the Twins MLB team were drafted and it seems like if you want legit bats you need to draft them in the 1^st or 2^nd round.

Let me first say that I am someone who always wanted the Twins to take pitching in the first round.  My question is should the Twins take bats with their first two picks and also use one of their two second round picks on a hitter?

Hear me out.  When you look at the bats who have made it out of the Twins system to MLB.  They are all primarily first or second round picks. 1^st round picks are Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin.  2nd round picks are Jeffers, Miranda, and the rest are international free agents like Kepler, Castro, Santana, Margot, Rodriguez and Camargo. 

Jullien was taken late but interestingly he was supposed to be a late 1^st round to second round pick but had a poor season and dropped.  Vasquez and Farmer were later picks but are in more support roles than starting roles. My point is that for bats if you go out of the second round the chances of them making it to MLB and making a difference appears to be minute.

Now look at the Twins rotation and there isn’t a single arm taken in the first round.  Ryan (7), Paddack (8), Ober (12), Varland (15) and Pablo was an International Free agent that worked out.  If Festa (13) makes it he would be another late round pick to make the rotation.  Only SWR who was taken in the second round but given first round money I believe can make a case for being selected early.

Even if you look at the top 30 prospect list, the bats are mostly taken in the first or second rounds. Jenkins, Lee, Schobel, Keaschall, Martin, (could make the case for Winokur who got first round money but taken in the 3^rd) with mainly international free agents like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, De Andrade, Mercedes, Olivar and Rodriguez in the top 20 to 25.  There are a few exceptions in Rosario, Cossetti, Cardenas and Ross, but none of them are top 10 system guys.

So, for as much grief as I give the Twins it would seem to make the most sense to grab bats as much as possible in the first few rounds and go pitching the rest of the way as the odds seem to be in your favor with that strategy. I’m not saying you can never go pitcher in the first round or that it would never makes sense.  I really liked the 2021 draft where they grabbed Petty number one and went pitchers in the 2^nd , 3^rd and 5^th round. Other teams liked those picks too as we traded away the top 5 picks in that draft.  Still it looks like they will get no hitting out of that draft either unless Cardenas can make it.

OK so that’s my rant.  If you don’t grab bats early the odds are extremely thin that they make it, but you can find arms in the later rounds. So, should the Twins focus on just bats early this year? Or are the bats just not good enough deeper into the draft for that to make sense?

[Gamblerssoftball]

I agree with you, DMann. Pitching is harder to predict future results than hitting, I believe.  Take what amounts to a better chance at hitting the jackpot with the best bats in the draft first, then work on the diamonds in the rough on the pitching side in later rounds.

[SaberNerd]

I'm in agreement with going hitting over pitching, as the FO has shown an ability to find pitchers later in the draft that they haven't for hitters.  I would like to get a day 1 pitcher, as it's hard to find an elite pitcher later in the draft (looking at MLBPipeline, the top 50 prospects has 0 IntFA pitchers, and the latest a pitcher was taken was #91).  

 

Appreciate the writeups.  If Brecht is on the board, he is the guy I'd want.  The upside is just too much to pass up, even with the major command concerns and preferring offense early.

[Jamie Cameron]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I am wondering what the Twins draft strategy might be for this upcoming draft.  They have an extra 1^st and 2^nd round pick this year so they could go bat, arm, bat, arm and keep things even or they could go bat, bat, arm, arm or perhaps bat, bat, bat, arm?  I recently looked at where guys on the Twins MLB team were drafted and it seems like if you want legit bats you need to draft them in the 1^st or 2^nd round.

Let me first say that I am someone who always wanted the Twins to take pitching in the first round.  My question is should the Twins take bats with their first two picks and also use one of their two second round picks on a hitter?

Hear me out.  When you look at the bats who have made it out of the Twins system to MLB.  They are all primarily first or second round picks. 1^st round picks are Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin.  2nd round picks are Jeffers, Miranda, and the rest are international free agents like Kepler, Castro, Santana, Margot, Rodriguez and Camargo. 

Jullien was taken late but interestingly he was supposed to be a late 1^st round to second round pick but had a poor season and dropped.  Vasquez and Farmer were later picks but are in more support roles than starting roles. My point is that for bats if you go out of the second round the chances of them making it to MLB and making a difference appears to be minute.

Now look at the Twins rotation and there isn’t a single arm taken in the first round.  Ryan (7), Paddack (8), Ober (12), Varland (15) and Pablo was an International Free agent that worked out.  If Festa (13) makes it he would be another late round pick to make the rotation.  Only SWR who was taken in the second round but given first round money I believe can make a case for being selected early.

Even if you look at the top 30 prospect list, the bats are mostly taken in the first or second rounds. Jenkins, Lee, Schobel, Keaschall, Martin, (could make the case for Winokur who got first round money but taken in the 3^rd) with mainly international free agents like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, De Andrade, Mercedes, Olivar and Rodriguez in the top 20 to 25.  There are a few exceptions in Rosario, Cossetti, Cardenas and Ross, but none of them are top 10 system guys.

So, for as much grief as I give the Twins it would seem to make the most sense to grab bats as much as possible in the first few rounds and go pitching the rest of the way as the odds seem to be in your favor with that strategy. I’m not saying you can never go pitcher in the first round or that it would never makes sense.  I really liked the 2021 draft where they grabbed Petty number one and went pitchers in the 2^nd , 3^rd and 5^th round. Other teams liked those picks too as we traded away the top 5 picks in that draft.  Still it looks like they will get no hitting out of that draft either unless Cardenas can make it.

OK so that’s my rant.  If you don’t grab bats early the odds are extremely thin that they make it, but you can find arms in the later rounds. So, should the Twins focus on just bats early this year? Or are the bats just not good enough deeper into the draft for that to make sense?

I think there's a solid chance three of the first four picks are bats (same as last year) and they leverage extra capital to take a prep they like somewhere that makes sense. Something like two college bats, prep bat, prep pitcher (in no particular order) through the end of Comp B

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I think there's a solid chance three of the first four picks are bats (same as last year) and they leverage extra capital to take a prep they like somewhere that makes sense. Something like two college bats, prep bat, prep pitcher (in no particular order) through the end of Comp B

How do you feel the board stacks up for that Comp A pick?  There should be some good arms left at that spot.  For the First round would you do Bat/Arm or Arm/Bat or would you be tempted to go Bat/Bat based on the fairly short supply of quality hitters this year and hope one of those arms you like falls to round 2.

[tony&rodney]

I'm hoping the Twins stay away from guys who look like good softball players and are potential DHs.

[saviking]

Didn't realize we had so many high picks. Nice!

[Jamie Cameron]

On 5/31/2024 at 2:11 PM, Dman said:

How do you feel the board stacks up for that Comp A pick?  There should be some good arms left at that spot.  For the First round would you do Bat/Arm or Arm/Bat or would you be tempted to go Bat/Bat based on the fairly short supply of quality hitters this year and hope one of those arms you like falls to round 2.

This is pure conjecture but I think bat/arm or bat/bat/arm is most likely for the reasoning you point out. There's been plenty of talk about how the talent falls off after pick 11 or so (true). I think (from my composite rankings) there's a bit of a drop after pick 40 or so.

As for how the board falls. After the top 12 or so I'm expecting TOTAL chaos. Of the prep arms in their comp pick range I like Braylon Doughty and Joey Oakie the best (doing some projection on who might be available still), There's another group in the 40-65 range in terms of ranking (Levonas, Meccage, Sterling), who are going to get paid Comp A type money.

Bottom line, I DO think the prep pitching in this class is pretty good, I'd be looking to tap into it in the first four picks.

[Mike Sixel]

No early HS pitchers, please ...

One reason they don't have pitchers taken early high in their rankings is they don't take pitchers early..... Can't have them ranked if you almost never take them. 

[Dman]

25 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

This is pure conjecture but I think bat/arm or bat/bat/arm is most likely for the reasoning you point out. There's been plenty of talk about how the talent falls off after pick 11 or so (true). I think (from my composite rankings) there's a bit of a drop after pick 40 or so.

As for how the board falls. After the top 12 or so I'm expecting TOTAL chaos. Of the prep arms in their comp pick range I like Braylon Doughty and Joey Oakie the best (doing some projection on who might be available still), There's another group in the 40-65 range in terms of ranking (Levonas, Meccage, Sterling), who are going to get paid Comp A type money.

Bottom line, I DO think the prep pitching in this class is pretty good, I'd be looking to tap into it in the first four picks.

Thanks for giving me a feel for what you think! I agree it is going to be a crazy draft after pick 12 or so.  Could see some HS bats go higher than expected.  Could see a run on pitchers.  Could see the power guys go on a run. Impossible to know what will be there at 21 and 33, but there will be very good players in that range. I think they might just go bat, arm bat arm and keep it even, but I do feel the overall system could use more elite bats so bat, bat probably makes more sense.  Likely depends on what is available at 33.

I saw the drop off more at top 50 but I will defer to you with that top 40 number that separates the next tier.  Which is a bit of a bummer as it comes just before our second round picks.  Still I think that might be a good range to go high school pitcher if they don't all get swooped up before we pick.

I would like to see them go bats with 3 of the first four picks and then go pitcher heavy the rest of the way. The Yankees have found some really good arms in the 4 through 7 round range and I think the Twins should try for more arms in that range.  Then do their thing on day three.  I think with 3 top round bats they can fill out the A ball roster with those three and the International free agents and then grab some day three hitters or Free agents to fill out the rest if needed.

They should go arm heavy as their MiLB bullpen arms have been pretty bad and arms are going to get hurt at a higher rate than hitters so it makes sense to have more available.  Will be interesting to see what they do.