I'm very much starting to get worried about Duran...

[Alex]

I posted this is the Game Thread from yesterday but I think it merits its own discussion:

If MLB Gameday is right at identifying pitches, Duran's gotta be hurt or something is off.  His fastballs today  in order were:

99.1, 99.2, 100.7, 100, 99.9, 97.5, 97.3, 98.1, 99.8, 98.2, 98.9

People in the thread were saying he was 99-101 on the broadcast, but those numbers look rounded up.  I didn't list them but his spliiter/splinker was below 96 the couple of times he threw it.   Assuming these pitches were correctly identified and he's not throwing them differently on purpose, there definitely seems to be more wrong than just losing a couple MPH due to being a year older.

Specifically, this was on two days' rest, he topped 100 just twice and then velocity jumped all over after that (3.5 mph difference), including pitches that were 97MPH, getting it over 99 just once in his last six fastballs.   The 97 MPH came on his 7th pitch, so it's not like he had thrown a ton of pitches (or was like a starter that had gone multiple innings).   His overall fastball is down to 100.3, but it won't be there long if his outings like this continue.   Obviously, we'd love all of our relievers to average that, but it's the inconsistency within the outing after two days of rest that seems a bit worrisome.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with your concern Alex.  He's certainly not throwing as hard as he did last year.  At his current age though, I don't think that matters at all.  When you can throw 99-100 mph that's still pretty impressive.  Not as impressive as 103-104 mph but that's still a LOT to work with.

The more concerning thing to me is not velocity, but command and confidence.  There are clearly pitches he doesn't seem to have the confidence in, or the command of, to throw, regardless of the count.  His "splinker" was hammered yesterday by Meneses and before that it was his curve or slider (whatever Duran is calling it).  

I also think that Duran is frustrated by the way Rocco is using him.  To me, it seems like Duran wants to CLOSE games and is miffed at being called on in the 7th or 8th inning to get "meat of the order" hitters out in a non-save situation.  I just don't understand how a guy like Jax can come in, throw 6 pitches in the 7th and then be sent to the showers rather than coming out and taking the 8th inning.  Six pitches is barely an appearance.  After a guy has warmed up and only needs a handful of pitches to finish an inning I think it makes more sense to send him out there again.  This is one of my bigger gripes with "analytics."  

[Linus]

The reduced velocity could be rusty mechanics. He is really far behind everyone else because of his IL stint. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I might be naive or just overly optimistic, but I would think if his arm or shoulder were bothering him, the Twins would shut him down. But, yes. The performance thus far is worrisome. Could be mechanics, could be confidence or a combination of the two. Whatever it is, he doesn't look right. Hopefully nothing injury related and he starts to round into form. The Twins can't win the division or wildcard spot without Duran being himself.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree with your concern Alex.  He's certainly not throwing as hard as he did last year.  At his current age though, I don't think that matters at all.  When you can throw 99-100 mph that's still pretty impressive.  Not as impressive as 103-104 mph but that's still a LOT to work with.

The more concerning thing to me is not velocity, but command and confidence.  There are clearly pitches he doesn't seem to have the confidence in, or the command of, to throw, regardless of the count.  His "splinker" was hammered yesterday by Meneses and before that it was his curve or slider (whatever Duran is calling it).  

I also think that Duran is frustrated by the way Rocco is using him.  To me, it seems like Duran wants to CLOSE games and is miffed at being called on in the 7th or 8th inning to get "meat of the order" hitters out in a non-save situation.  I just don't understand how a guy like Jax can come in, throw 6 pitches in the 7th and then be sent to the showers rather than coming out and taking the 8th inning.  Six pitches is barely an appearance.  After a guy has warmed up and only needs a handful of pitches to finish an inning I think it makes more sense to send him out there again.  This is one of my bigger gripes with "analytics."  

Can be frustrating to see an effective guy leave the game - Jax - agreed.

I think, as weak as it may seem, guys get used to lathering up and coming in and pitching - getting outs - then done. It’s not within a routine to sit for some unknown length of time and stay mentally on edge and focused - also, because of the short stints, guys go 110% for 3-5 batters and then drop way off on stuff.

Probably the most significant reason is that if they go two innings one day they typically have to sit next 2 days………..have half-dozen other guys getting paid out there, other than Duran, gotta use guys in right spots. Sometimes they give up runs - no perfect in the bullpen or anywhere else in the game.