What does Joe Mauer's strikeout rate this year mean?

[Scheherezade]

20.8% is quite a bit higher than his 9.9% career average.

 

He's walking just as much, so he's replacing ground/line/fly outs with strike outs.

 

Is it possible that these first two months will even out over the next four? Or, has something changed in his game? He's obviously still a tremendously valuable hitter.

[COtwin]

He is on pace to nearly double his strikeout number of last year 88 vs 150ish. It seems to me he is driving the ball with much more authority this year. His Slugging % is up around 30 points and he is on pace crush his doubles number from last year. I take all of these as positives that outweigh another 70 or so strikeouts. Especially as he has only grounded into 2 double plays as opposed to 23 all of last year. He is getting out at roughly the same rate and he isn't taking anyone else with him.

[Oxtung]

I don't know if Joe's strike outs are a statistical anomaly or a sign of bad things to come but if they continue he will come back to Earth and quickly. Right now his stats are being held up by a .405 babip. That is clearly unsustainable. When that drops so will his BA, OBP and Slg.

 

To put this in some context here are some stats from his two best seasons and this year:

 

2009 .373 babip leading to a .365 batting average

2003 .364 babip leading to a .347 batting average

 

In the following seasons his babip dropped and subsequently so did his batting average.

 

2013 .405 babip with a .323 batting average.

 

So even with an absurdly high babip his batting average is just average for Joe. Clearly his strike outs are hurting his hitting. Now think about where that batting average will be when that babip normalizes towards his career .348 mark. I wouldn't be surprised if Joe has a .270 batting average for several months.

[Badsmerf]

I wouldn't be surprised if Joe has a .270 batting average for several months.

 

I would. Mauer will never be that low for consecutive months. He just simply hits the ball too well.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins should be concerned. The sample is large enough when looking at strikeout rate. Hopefully somebody is studying the tapes and pitch sequencing. Something has changed on Joe's part or the pitcher's part.

[launchingthrees]

The Twins should be concerned. The sample is large enough when looking at strikeout rate.

 

Take a statistics course. The sample isn't large enough.

 

What's the theory here? He totally changed his approach despite being the best contact hitter in baseball? He aged months and can't see the ball as well? Seriously?

[silverslugger]

Warning: You are about to read the opinions of a lifelong baseball/Twins fan with absolutely no statistical evidence to back up those opinions. Proceed at your own risk.

 

To me, Joe seems to have made a conscious effort this year to drive the ball more by increasing his swing speed. In other words, he's trying to crush the ball. Bad result; the swing is not as compact this year which is leading to more strike outs. Good result; the weak grounders we saw so much of last year have been considerably fewer.

[jorgenswest]

Take a statistics course. The sample isn't large enough.

 

What's the theory here? He totally changed his approach despite being the best contact hitter in baseball? He aged months and can't see the ball as well? Seriously?

 

support for my assertion

 

Sample Size | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

 

support for yours?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Warning: You are about to read the opinions of a lifelong baseball/Twins fan with absolutely no statistical evidence to back up those opinions. Proceed at your own risk.

 

To me, Joe seems to have made a conscious effort this year to drive the ball more by increasing his swing speed. In other words, he's trying to crush the ball. Bad result; the swing is not as compact this year which is leading to more strike outs. Good result; the weak grounders we saw so much of last year have been considerably fewer.

 

I think this makes sense. His HRs are up a bit too. He's not going to hit 30, but double digits is pretty attainable. The question at hand is whether it's sustainable. Joe is good enough that he might be able to pull off a freakish BABIP...

[Scheherezade]

If Joe Mauer sustained his .405 BABIP for the season, it would rank as the 2nd highest single season BABIP since 1945 (only to Rod Carew's 1977 season): The Ten Highest BABIPs Since 1945 | Community ? FanGraphs Baseball

 

I'm guessing it's headed down a bit. I do like that he tends to strikeout now where he used to ground into a 4-6-3 double play.

[Oxtung]

If Joe were to end the year tied with his career high babip of .373 he would have to have a babip of .357 going forward. If he were to match his career average of .348 he would have to have a .320 babip for the rest of the season. Right now his batting average is .080 lower than his babip, which is a career worst for him. In 2011 Mauer had a babip of .319 with a batting average of .287. That difference is .032. I think it is entirely possible, given how much Mauer is striking out and his high babip combined with his career high difference in babip and BA (which I think is mostly driven by the strike outs) that he will have a month or two of .270ish batting average.

 

Of course that is predicated on Mauer's strike outs being more than just a function of randomization.

[Old Twins Cap]

This is no funk or freak occurrence. Mauer is striking out at a higher rate. In high school, Joe was famous for striking out only once in his career. But now, there's a lot of pelts being taken. This has all the signs of an aging player. Question is: can Maurer make an adjustment and maintain excellence by becoming a different kind of hitter? And what would that be in his case?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is no funk or freak occurrence. Mauer is striking out at a higher rate. In high school, Joe was famous for striking out only once in his career. But now, there's a lot of pelts being taken. This has all the signs of an aging player. Question is: can Maurer make an adjustment and maintain excellence by becoming a different kind of hitter? And what would that be in his case?

 

I disagree. I think this might be a conscious decision by Joe.

 

Comparing 2013 to 2012, here are some differences in Joe's peripherals:

 

GB%: -8.0

LD%: +2.4

FB%: +5.4

 

I don't think that's a coincidence.

[jorgenswest]

I disagree. I think this might be a conscious decision by Joe.

 

Comparing 2013 to 2012, here are some differences in Joe's peripherals:

 

GB%: -8.0

LD%: +2.4

FB%: +5.4

 

I don't think that's a coincidence.

 

good point

 

I think all of those fall in the large enough sample umbrella. Could this be a change in approach with the goal of increasing power? The side effect being increased strike outs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

good point

 

I think all of those fall in the large enough sample umbrella. Could this be a change in approach with the goal of increasing power? The side effect being increased strike outs.

 

The interesting part is that those numbers are a return (a small improvement, even) to his 2008/9 peripherals, only with more strikeouts.

 

I don't think this has to do with aging.

[jm3319]

I think it's pretty obvious he is taking some healthy hacks and trying to generate some more power his year which is resulting in some more K's. It's nothing more than that, nothing less.

[Benchwarmerjim]

what is the breakdown between Mauer swing and miss for a K and caught looking? Is is different from what his career norms? Is that stat even available anywhere?

[Brock Beauchamp]

what is the breakdown between Mauer swing and miss for a K and caught looking? Is is different from what his career norms? Is that stat even available anywhere?

 

I don't know those exact stats but Joe is swinging at 4.6% more pitches overall and about 6.5% more pitches in the strike zone.

 

His swings at pitches out of the zone is virtually unchanged and is only .9% higher than last season.

 

Joe is swinging at more good pitches and he's probably swinging a little harder. But he's not swinging at bad pitches.

[Oxtung]

what is the breakdown between Mauer swing and miss for a K and caught looking? Is is different from what his career norms? Is that stat even available anywhere?

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]Looking

Swinging

This year

17%

83%

Career Avg.

22%

78%

Lowest Looking (2009)

16%

84%

[/TABLE]

 

You can find it from baseball-reference.com under the more stats tab. Scroll down to the Pitch Summary -- Batting section. It is near the far right of the table.

[Willihammer]

I think it boils down to geometry. The cutter seems to be gaining popularity and Mauer with his flat swing will roll over on them. This year it looks like he's pulling in and angling the bathead down a bit more, and that's causing more fly ball contact and whiffs against 4 seamers and 2 seamers, but the cutters he aren't rolling over on as much.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Personally, I'm starting to tire of the sabermetric approach that says that BABIP is only a function of luck. If that was the case, you could throw me out there and be a 5th starter. The reality is that if that happened, I'd get hit around... hard.

 

What you are seeing is that when all the top end talent consolidates in one place (MLB) that BABIP for hitters tends to distribute much more randomly. The stats don't catch the fact that people make adjustments all the time, and this thread is a perfect example of that. One of the big criticisms of Mauer is the fact that he hits into DPs and is not aggressive enough, letting very good pitches go by. That's exactly what he's attempted to change this year, and it's resulted in more Ks, less DPs, more power, and a higher BABIP.

 

The question at hand will be how pitchers adjust.

[Benchwarmerjim]

You can find it from baseball-reference.com under the more stats tab. Scroll down to the Pitch Summary -- Batting section. It is near the far right of the table.

 

oooh neat. thanks

[Brock Beauchamp]

Personally, I'm starting to tire of the sabermetric approach that says that BABIP is only a function of luck. If that was the case, you could throw me out there and be a 5th starter. The reality is that if that happened, I'd get hit around... hard.

 

Well, BABIP is weird. Pitchers all tend to end up at the same place but anyone who claims all hitters end up with the same BABIP is just wrong. Mauer is a good example and Delmon Young has always had a high BABIP as well.

 

Where BABIP comes in handy is comparing the same player to himself. After compiling a few years of stats as a baseline, you can generally tell if a hitter is getting lucky or unlucky compared to his previous seasons. It's rare, but not impossible, for a player to drastically change his approach enough to permanently change his BABIP going forward.

[snepp]

Personally, I'm starting to tire of the sabermetric approach that says that BABIP is only a function of luck.

 

Personally, I'm beyond tired of this strawman getting pummeled.

 

 

There isn't any "sabermetric approach" that says this.

[Oxtung]

Personally, I'm beyond tired of this strawman getting pummeled.

 

 

There isn't any "sabermetric approach" that says this.

 

In addition I don't think anybody made that claim in this thread either. What has been said, I think, is that his current .405 babip is unsustainable over a full season. When his babip falls it will probably settle somewhere between his career average rate and his highest season rate. In order for it to settle into that range some combination of his June, July, August, September rates will have to be significantly less than his current rate. When that happens, because of his high strike out rate, his batting average is likely to fall below his career norms as well.

[launchingthrees]

. When that happens, because of his high strike out rate, his batting average is likely to fall below his career norms as well.

 

Or ya know his babip will fall as will his strikeout rate given that we have thousands of previous ABs to compare to this 60 game sample. I guess it's more fun to find trends and attach a narrative to them.

[JB_Iowa]

Has anybody looked at a spray chart of his hits (or can you tell me where to look)?

 

While I remember a HR to right, it seems to me most of his HRs have just made it over the left field fence. Has he been focusing on driving the ball to left to try to take advantage of TF?

 

I am relieved to see his GDP rate down significantly (yes, I know part of this has to do with location in the batting order but there were a lot of times last year when I wanted to scream).

 

Based upon the looking/swinging % above, it appears as though Mauer is taken a somewhat more aggressive approach at the plate. One thing that caught my eye is that he is currently at a 2.05 TB per game rate. His rate was 2.22 TB/game in his MVP year but otherwise it is generally around 1.7.

 

At least for now, that more aggressive approach appears to be paying off in terms of his contribution to the team (perhaps at the expense of his personal statistics). And, despite the fact that I'm not a big Joe Mauer fan, I have total faith that he will continue to make adjustments to try to take advantage of his renewed health and of Target Field. I would also guess that if he takes a look back after the season and is unhappy with results, he'll make other adjustments.

[Siehbiscuit]

I believe it was approximately 3 weeks to a month ago a reporter asked this same question to Gardy during post-game stuff on FSN, regarding the increase in strikeouts for Mauer. His response (paraphrasing) was it was an organizational decision for Mauer to be more aggressive driving the ball. He said that this team needs Joe to have more XBH to be successful. He also mentioned that Mauer is going to be more aggressive on the first pitch.

 

Hopefully one of TD's statheads can look into the first pitch swinging frequency to support Gardy's claim.

[Oxtung]

Or ya know his babip will fall as will his strikeout rate given that we have thousands of previous ABs to compare to this 60 game sample. I guess it's more fun to find trends and attach a narrative to them.

 

Perhaps instead of offering snark you should read and better understand the points being made by posters. Here are few of my other points from this thread:

 

I don't know if Joe's strike outs are a statistical anomaly or a sign of bad things to come but if they continue he will come back to Earth and quickly.

 

Of course that is predicated on Mauer's strike outs being more than just a function of randomization.

 

It would be great if you would argue your point without trying to divine fellow posters motivations.