What Do the Twins Have in Reliever Justin Topa?

[Otaknam]

The trade makes sense  given the Twins desire to move 
Polanco’s salary. Topa provides a proven arm in a BP that should be very solid. It looks like the addition of DiSclafani pushes Varland to the BP, where he could be electric like he was at the end of last year. Hopefully Canterino, Balazovic, Winder or someone else also emerges to provide a high 90’s arm to the BP. Still the loss of Gray and Maeda has weakened the starting pitching, and DiSclafani is unlikely to make up for that. Right now the plan appears to be to have back end starters pitch 4-5 innings and count on the bullpen to win the game, similar to what KC did in 2014-15 in their World Series run. That would require a constant flow of arms from AAA to keep everyone fresh.

[Linus]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Flora has been a useful reliever. When with the Dodgers he made their World Series roster in two seasons and pitched in 5 of those games.

We didn't see the best of Floro and our defense behind him let him down a few times. A groundball pitcher counts on the defense. His FIP and xFIP with the Twins was in the 3s. His career ERA is 3.42

If Topa gives the Twins innings and an ERA below 4 he will be a useful middle inning reliever. This is something they could have found in free agency but save a million or two compared to what they might have spent on the free agent market.

Yep. I was just kidding. I am disappointed in the deal but do like adding to the pen with something other than waiver wire pickups. 

[harmony55]

Baseball Trade Values provides notorious volatility in its player valuations as evidenced by its Justin Topa valuations that fell from $18.5 million on November 29 to the current $7 million the following day.

BTV gave the Twins the clear edge in ultimate trade even with the lower valuation on Topa.

Seattle was likely to trade from its bullpen surplus this offseason. Topa was a top trade-high candidate after his breakout in his age 32 season.

The Mariners flip relievers, such as Paul Sewald, the way real estate speculators flip houses. The M's acquired Topa (BTV value 0.0) last offseason for the modest price of prospect righthander Joseph Hernandez. The Mariners then polished up Topa before flipping the reliever at the far higher value.

Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto has a reputation as a prolific trader but another club needed to agree to each of his trades. One could argue that Dipoto finds trade partners because he offers value, often excessive value, according to Baseball Trade Value. 

Hoping the trade will prove to be a win-win for the Twins and Mariners.

[saviking]

On 1/30/2024 at 9:40 AM, arby58 said:

Nice analysis - I had the same general belief that he would fill a Pagan-like role. in fact, both Pagan and Topa threw 69 innings last year. Griffin Jax threw 65 and Duran 62, so they effectively replaced their relief 'innings eater.' One difference is Topa had a 2.61 ERA, while Pagan's was a slightly higher 2.99 (admittedly inflated a bit by one really bad outing).

It will be interesting following both Topa and Pagan who was also a late bloomer over the course of this year ..

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I looked for a reliever that had similar ground ball rates, strike out rates and walk rates. These are numbers I know stabilize in the sample of a relief season.

Justin Topa 

19.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 56.7 GB%

Dylan Floro

23.4% K%, 6.9 BB%, 54.4 BG%

Topa’s ERA estimators (xERA, FIP, xFIP) ranged from 2.93 to 3.55. Floro’s ranged from 2.96 to 3.38. ZIPs projects both for 0.1 WAR. Steamer projects Topa for 0.2 and Floro for 0.3 WAR

Topa will make 1.25 million. Floro 2.25 million.

They are both entering their age 33 seasons.

 

 

Can’t get to an ERA of 2.61 over 69 appearances & 75 innings with smoke & mirrors. Floro could get knocked around - not sure how these stats accurately compare the two?

[jorgenswest]

18 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Can’t get to an ERA of 2.61 over 69 appearances & 75 innings with smoke & mirrors. Floro could get knocked around - not sure how these stats accurately compare the two?

You absolutely can get to a 2.61 ERA in 75 innings with smoke and mirrors. I chose the other stats for their low stabilization rates. ERA is pretty useless for assessing relievers because it takes so many innings for it to stabilize. A starter doesn’t throw enough innings in a single season. People see ERAs of relievers vary significantly from year to year and come to the conclusion that relievers are volatile in their performance. It is really random variation due to sample. Strikeout rates, walk rates and groundball rates stay pretty consistent because they don’t need a large sample to stabilize. 

[arby58]

22 hours ago, hitterscount said:

What does it say about Varland if he cannot beat out DeSclafani? DeSclafani has been nothing more than a #5 starter for several years., maybe a step above Archer, Bundy... maybe. 

Wasn't thrilled with the trade, but Topa does help the BP.  Will be waiting for another trade that helps the SP.   

I think it's that the Twins want him to get more experience. DeSclafini has started 169 games in MLB, Varland 15. He'll get his opportunities in time, and they are both in some ways an insurance policy - we know the Twins are not going to use 5 starting pitchers the entire season (not 6, either).

[Fatbat]

Has anyone considered that paddack and/or Varland will be used as 4 inning openers and we will have 2 guys piggy back their starts?