Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?

[Hunter McCall]

On 12/1/2023 at 11:03 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

This is an interesting proposition.  I'm in the camp that says "Keep Lee."  I think he'll be very good.  But let me play devils advocate here for a moment.

This post rightfully points out that while Lee has been "solid" at every level of the minors he's been in he has not had a season where he just "popped."  A Miranda type St. Paul season as an example.  This is a valid point.

As always it depends what's coming back in the deal.  So let's look at a possible deal I just posted on BBTV.  The trade site just updated all their rankings and it's interesting.  There was one rating that blew me away:  The Marlins saw the value for their 28 y/o former Cy Young Ace Sandy Alcantara fall from 15.3 to a NEGATIVE 39.1.  I'm stunned.  It has to be due to his poor performance in 2023 after his Cy Young 2022.  His contract is also $56 million for the next 5 years with 2024 being $9.3 million.  Luzardo, Perez and Braxton Garrett each rocketed past him in the Marlins rotation pecking order and they still have Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera under contract for peanuts.  Not to mention Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers.  

But the trade I proposed on BBTV is this:

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Bryce Miller	25	Majors	SP			6	56.5	30.5	25.9	20.7	25.9	31.1
Bryan Woo	23	Majors	SP			6	53.4	25.1	28.2	22.6	28.2	33.9

Total Value:

54.10

Mariners

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Trevor Larnach	27	Majors	OF		Low	4	9.2	5.6	3.6	2.9	3.6	4.3
Caleb Thielbar	36	Majors	RP		Medium	1	6.6	3	3.6	2.8	3.6	4.3
Brooks Lee	22	Minors	SS			0	0	0	48.1	38.5	48.1	57.7

Total Value:

55.30

 

In this trade Lee is the centerpiece with a couple of extra pieces of value to a team like the Mariners.  The Mariners have enough depth in their rotation to give up BOTH of these young pitchers.  They would install Lee at 2B right away.  The other option is you include Polanco and keep Larnach and Thielbar.  But the Twins, in a deal like this ride with Julien at 2B and have a rotation that now boasts:  Lopez, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack.  Varland is now the master of the 8th inning and the Twins have ZERO rotation worries for the next 5-years which is their window.  

This illustrates what the Twins could accomplish with a bold trade where they sell high on an asset but get 2 outstanding, young pitchers back.  the Values of Woo and Miller actually ticked up from the last time I was on BBTV.  

 

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Twins & Mariners: Baseball Trade Values

 

Thank you for sharing this!

This is exactly my point. The Twins shouldn't be looking to give Lee away, but there are options out there where they can turn this team into a real contender if they use his as a trade package headliner. For me, when you have an opportunity to do that it should be heavily considered.

The Twins could pull off a large return and experience a fairly minimal negative impact. Yes they would lose one of their top prospects but they have young guys all around the infield to help offset that loss. For me it just makes sense.

[Hunter McCall]

On 12/1/2023 at 11:06 AM, Major League Ready said:

Lee really does not hit well enough from the right side for his switch hitting to matter much.  The guy who can hit from both sides is Severino but he gets no love.  Lee had a wRC+ of 100 at aa and 78 at AAA.  Severino was 139 at AA and 100 at AAA.  Of course, there is no comparison defensively.  Just saying Lee's bat has not screamed elite.  I also wonder if Severino is not a better trade chip than we think.

Exactly! I've said from the beginning that Severino is a much more likely second base platoon than Brooks Lee. The Twins have the pieces to offset the loss of Lee, so they really should consider cashing in on his value.

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Exactly! I've said from the beginning that Severino is a much more likely second base platoon than Brooks Lee. The Twins have the pieces to offset the loss of Lee, so they really should consider cashing in on his value.

I would guess that the FO views Lee as a considerably better prospect.  I was just pointing out we might not be giving Severino  his due.  I think the only way they trade Lee is for a young / cost controller SP with 4+ years of control as would be the case with one of Seattle's young pitchers.  No way should they trade him for 2 years of control.  See Tyler Mahle.

[Hunter McCall]

On 12/1/2023 at 1:18 PM, Fatbat said:

Obviously polo and farmer don’t get you Pablo but neither does Lee on his own. It took a batting champ and a willing team with a need for a 2B to trade away Pablo. As of right now, would Miami trade Pablo for Lee today if Arraez /Pablo didn’t happen last year? 100% no way.  They would still be asking for arraez. 

By almost every trading metric Brooks Lee has more value now than Luis Arraez did last year.

[Hunter McCall]

On 12/1/2023 at 2:27 PM, tony&rodney said:

Great post Hunter. 

After some discussions yesterday about my opposition to strict adherence to BTV (an interesting site to use with a grain of salt), I noticed that were several huge leaps or depreciations in the values. This got me to thinking about writing up a post about Royce Lewis. Reading this stream, I've decided to put that rough draft post in the trash because everything here applies to Lewis pretty much. 

This post and the discussions are the entire crux of a situation the Twins face this offseason. The AL Central should be in hand barring a collapse, but small tweaks can be made to move the Twins into the top ten teams in baseball. We all like Lee, Lewis, etc. Not all of the players fit. Pitching is always the main currency to winning. I like the rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack, but a clear upgrade would make a difference. I disagree that Seattle will never consider trading Kirby or Gilbert, but either will cost. BTW, for those who love BTV, Lewis is worth quite a bit more than Gilbert. 

These are the conversations being hashed out in a conference room at Target Field. Can Lewis play 2B? Lee is a little slow and has always been seen as a third baseman. I saw a few comments that suggested that Lee will be better than Correa by as early as next year and surely by 2025. Look at Correa's career and it is crazy to expect that. I'm very high on all of Lewis, Lee, and Julien. Unlike some, I can see any one of the three having a clearly better career than the other two without eliminating or favoring one.

Falvey makes the big bucks and gets to make these calls and then speak promotionally afterwards. I'm leaving all worries to him and just hope the Twins are a better team and more exciting to watch in 2024. 

Thank you for your thoughts! I appreciate it!

I agree that these things need to be discussed!

[Hunter McCall]

On 12/1/2023 at 4:36 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'd deal Lee for a number 2 starter (that player is up to the FO to find and believe in) with 3+ years of control, but why would anyone deal that type of pitcher? 100% not for a rental, and likely not for 2 years of a player either. 

I understand the logjam, and the doubts about his bat (all 1 year of pro ball to judge him....), but he's a consensus top 10-20 player. That's not a player to deal w/o an insane return back (even if you have to bundle him to get it).

The Twins got Pablo just last offseason so there's one instance of a high level starter getting traded. The Marlins did that trade because of the depth in their rotation. The Mariners currently have rotational depth to deal a high level guy to the Twins in order to improve elsewhere. This is just one potential option the Twins could explore but to say no team would trade a number 2 starter is not entirely true.

[Fatbat]

26 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

By almost every trading metric Brooks Lee has more value now than Luis Arraez did last year.

But in the real world, if you need a 2nd baseman to play opening day ‘24. would you trade for Arraez or Lee?

[Hunter McCall]

30 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would guess that the FO views Lee as a considerably better prospect.  I was just pointing out we might not be giving Severino  his due.  I think the only way they trade Lee is for a young / cost controller SP with 4+ years of control as would be the case with one of Seattle's young pitchers.  No way should they trade him for 2 years of control.  See Tyler Mahle.

Agreed, as I stated, they shouldn't be looking to just give him away. The return must be worthy of the trade. I think that part got lost somewhere. I was never suggesting they move Lee for Zack Greinke. However, I think packaging him to add star power to our rotation would be a no-brainer. Yunior Severino helps offset that loss.

[Hunter McCall]

5 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

But in the real world, if you need a 2nd baseman to play opening day ‘24. would you trade for Arraez or Lee?

You're correct, Arraez was an MLB ready player. For what it's worth though in the packages I suggested I included Polanco in there as well to appeal to teams who need a starter for opening day as well as the top 20 prospect.

[Fatbat]

Totally understand that combo and I’m just playing devils advocate. I think this years market is going to be super tough to find a Pablo type and if we have to give up Lee to do it. We better be getting more than just the one guy because Lee’s future value could be much more than his current value.  As a fan, I don’t want to watch him in the all star game with a different cap on in a few years from now.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

The Twins got Pablo just last offseason so there's one instance of a high level starter getting traded. The Marlins did that trade because of the depth in their rotation. The Mariners currently have rotational depth to deal a high level guy to the Twins in order to improve elsewhere. This is just one potential option the Twins could explore but to say no team would trade a number 2 starter is not entirely true.

He didn't have 3+ years of control left......but he did have 2, so close. 

Seattle just cleared another 20 million from its budget, so that could be a good sign.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

On 12/1/2023 at 7:59 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

Who is the pitcher you trade Lee for? It had better be someone with more than 3 years team control who would immediately step ahead of pre-injury Joe Ryan of 2023. The list of guys is pretty short right?

I guess I’ve started to focus more on the guys who are good NOW, and would be a free agent sooner. 

Peralta. Fits in behind Pablo. Nasty stuff and maybe the best contract in baseball for a top starter. Insane value. 

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

I'd only trade Lee for a guy like Peralta or one of Miami or Seattle's young starters. But the idea he doesn't have a home because of Julien and Lewis is really stupid. He plays second over Julien in a heart beat. Julien can DH and spot start at 2b and maybe 1b or corner OF down the road.

I personally don't like trading Lee when you could probably deal Kepler or Polanco along with some guys in the 6-15 prospect range and achieve the same results. Not a Peralta, because his contract is unreal. But plenty of others. I wonder if Cleveland would deal Bieber within the division?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

I'd only trade Lee for a guy like Peralta or one of Miami or Seattle's young starters. But the idea he doesn't have a home because of Julien and Lewis is really stupid. He plays second over Julien in a heart beat. Julien can DH and spot start at 2b and maybe 1b or corner OF down the road.

I personally don't like trading Lee when you could probably deal Kepler or Polanco along with some guys in the 6-15 prospect range and achieve the same results. Not a Peralta, because his contract is unreal. But plenty of others. I wonder if Cleveland would deal Bieber within the division?

Cleveland isn't dealing for a veteran like Polanco or Kepler. 

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cleveland isn't dealing for a veteran like Polanco or Kepler. 

Their history certainly supports your point.  Their standard practice is to trade established vets for guys in the high minors or players that have started their major league careers but have not established themselves to any great degree.  I would hope Falvey learned from his tenure in Cleveland to not trade good assets for guys with one year of control.   I am very helpful Seattle loves Polanco and/or Kepler as part of a package for one of their young SPs.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cleveland isn't dealing for a veteran like Polanco or Kepler. 

Didn't say they would. Only wondering if they'd deal within the division.