Tale of the Tape: 2023 AL Division Series (#3 Twins vs #2 Astros)

[Ted Schwerzler]

Having taken out the Toronto Blue Jays and advancing through the wild card round, the Minnesota Twins are headed to Texas for a series with the Houston Astros. Having already won the season series, Minnesota could be in position to advance beyond the Best-of-Five-Game round.

 

Image courtesy of Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Houston was among the teams that Rocco Baldelli’s club could have faced during the wild card round, but after the Astros caught up to Texas and won the AL West, they earned a first round bye. Now welcoming Minnesota with a home field advantage, Dusty Baker’s club will need to lose a home game if the Twins are going to emerge victorious.

Having not only slayed the 0-18 dragon against the Blue Jays, but also earning the first postseason sweep in franchise history, Minnesota is riding a high. They’ll need a new arm to start them off on the right foot.

Records
Houston Astros 90-72 (93-69 pythag) 1st AL West
Minnesota Twins 87-75 (93-69 pythag) 1st AL Central

Although plenty has been made about the AL Central being weak in 2023, the Twins found themselves knocking off an AL East foe in the first round. The AL West saw Texas knock off the Tampa Bay Rays, and Houston was sitting idle as they earned themselves a first round bye. Both Minnesota and Houston finished with identical pythagorean records, and their win totals were separated by just three games.

Winning on the road is a must for the Twins at this point, and they owned a near .500 record away from Target Field. With a 40-41 record, the Twins also took two of three in Houston. Coming in hot, Minnesota went 42-29 in the second half, and is coming off a pair of wins against the Blue Jays.

On the flip side, Houston was a better road team than they were at home this season. The Astros went 51-30 on the road while playing to just a 39-42 record at home. In both the first and second halves, Houston played to records nine games over .500. Though the Twins won the season series by a 4-2 tally, the teams were split by just four runs in Minnesota’s favor.

Rotation
With at least three games guaranteed in the Division Series, Minnesota will again turn to Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray for at least one game apiece. Joe Ryan was lined up to start the final game of the wild card round, and could be the presumed Game 1 starter. Bailey Ober will also join the 26-man roster, and sets up to be the arm used in Game 4. Kenta Maeda went unused in the wild card round, and could be an option as well.

Ryan comes in with the most gaudy ERA of the Twins starters. His 4.51 mark is largely inflated due to an inability to keep the baseball in the yard. Allowing a career worst 1.8 HR/9, Ryan has given up seven dingers across his last seven starts. 

Conversely, Ober has been rolling since returning in mid-September. Overlooked to start the year and sent back to Triple-A, he has been great each time his number has been called. He owns a 2.08 ERA across his past four outings, and the only loss in those contests was the Colorado Rockies game to end the season.

For the Astros, pitching is largely a two-headed monster. Justin Verlander is the future Hall of Famer acquired from the New York Mets at the deadline, and he’s coming off a Cy Young win while grabbing a World Series ring with the Astros last season. He’s not the same arm he was a few years ago, but he owns a 3.31 ERA for Houston this season, and dominated a Seattle Mariners lineup looking to make the playoffs his last time out.

Dusty Baker will definitely go with lefty Framber Valdez at some point, and Minnesota has struggled against southpaws this season. Valdez owns a 3.45 ERA and is among the best arms in baseball. He’s a strikeout guy that also significantly limits traffic on the bases.

Cristian Javier should be expected to pitch in Game 3, and he may be the weakest link of the arms to pitch for Houston. Owning a 4.56 ERA this season, the strikeout numbers aren’t substantial, and he does give up the longball. Hunter Brown made plenty of starts in his rookie year, but the hard-throwing righty is probably not in line to take a turn. The Astros can send J.P. France to the bump for a game, and the rookie brings a 3.83 ERA with muted strikeout numbers.

Bullpen
Minnesota’s bullpen didn’t need to do much heavy lifting during the wild card round, but they definitely held serve when called upon. Louie Varland was asked to get some big outs following both starters, and Caleb Thielbar worked around potential damage as well. Despite scuffles during the season, Griffin Jax worked well as the setup man, and Jhoan Duran earned saves in both contests.

The Astros closer is familiar to Twins fans as Ryan Pressly emerged as one of the game’s best relievers while in Minnesota. Being dealt to Houston, Pressly netted both Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala in return. It’s not just Pressly for Baker’s squad though. Kendall Graveman was added at the deadline, and rejoined a team he has familiarity with. Bryan Abreu has become one of the best setup arms in baseball, and Hector Neris has previously worked as a closer.

Houston has veteran options in the form of Phil Maton and Rafael Montero, but the latter has really struggled this season. Former starter Jose Urquidy has transitioned to a relief role, and Ryne Stanek is out there as well. The lone lefty in relief for the Astros is Bennett Sousa, and he has thrown just 6 1/3 innings this season.

Hitters
Royce Lewis obviously takes the cake as the Twins most prolific performer from the wild card round. His pair of homers against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is something that Twins fans won’t soon forget. Carlos Correa had his moment with an RBI single to kick off the scoring in Game 2, but his defense has been more notable thus far. Both the play to nail Bo Bichette at home, and the pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., were game-altering events.

Baldelli’s other rookies will continue looking to make their mark. We haven’t seen much from either Edouard Julien or Matt Wallner to this point, and veterans like Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler will want to make some noise. Alex Kirilloff made his major-league debut back in 2020 against the Astros during the postseason, and him stepping up in this series could be a fun narrative to see.

Houston’s lineup might not be seen as good as the Blue Jays, but they have plenty of talent throughout. Jose Altuve is an elite player in the box, and Alex Bregman has played at a star level this season. Minnesota is familiar with Jose Abreu from his time with the White Sox, and while he has had a down season, there’s always reason to be careful with him.

The Astros outfield leaves something to be desired when they step into the box, but Kyle Tucker separates from that group. Neither Jake Meyers or Mauricio Dubon are anything to write home about. Baker has picked his spots with Chas McCormick, and he's had a very nice year. Tucker is a legitimate superstar, and his lefty swing has produced 29 dingers in 2023.

Playing 40 games in left field this season, Yordan Alvarez can hack it in the grass, but is much more scary as the designated hitter. He’s got serious power, and although the home runs were down a bit due to games played this year, he was the 2021 ALCS MVP and has plenty of big moments tied to his name already.

Managers
Having gotten off the schneid, Baldelli now has two postseason wins to his credit. His third trip to the postseason has been much more fun, and he’ll look to keep it going against a future Hall of Famer in Dusty Baker. Baldelli pulled lots of right levers during the wild card round, and he’ll need to replicate that in Houston.

Baker is a 26-year veteran and has a whopping 2,183-1,862 record to his name. The three-time Manager of the Year winner won his first World Series last season with Houston. He will hit 100 postseason games managed during this series, and brings a 51-46 record with him.

In our look at the postseason managers, this was noted about Houston’s tendencies this season under Baker. “While not a significant stealing team, the Astros are running at a clip 15% higher than league average, which is the most Baker has led outside of his 2016 Washington Nationals team. Baker has utilized sacrifice bunts right around league average, but he has not turned to his bench in the form of pinch hitters or runners all too often.”

With a guaranteed game taking place at Target Field, Minnesota will hope to take one in Houston and give themselves a chance to advance into the American League Championship Series. What are your thoughts about the Astros as an opponent? What are you most looking forward to from this series?

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[MN_ExPat]

I think they match up well against Hoosten (yes, that's on purpose ).  The Stros have a very good team still, but are not invincible and I see our boys pulling it out in 4. 

SKOL Twins!  LET'S GOOOOOOOO!

Edit:  Math is not my forte. Stoopid numbers 🤨. Oooh, look a kitty!!!

[minman1982]

I think it is a fairly even matchup. The Astros offense may be a little worse than the Blue Jays but their pitching is a little better. I think this is going to come down to the Twins offense. Can they score a few runs early to put the pressure on the Astros? I will go out on a limb and say the Twins win the series in 4.

[JD-TWINS]

41 minutes ago, minman1982 said:

I think it is a fairly even matchup. The Astros offense may be a little worse than the Blue Jays but their pitching is a little better. I think this is going to come down to the Twins offense. Can they score a few runs early to put the pressure on the Astros? I will go out on a limb and say the Twins win the series in 4.

Altuve - Bregman - Alvarez - Tucker - McCormack - Peña - Abreu - etc. …………..not sure where the holes are in their line-up?

4/5 veteran relievers & Verlander - Valdez - Brown - Javier are all ready to go!!

We stack up OK - won both series with Houston this year, 2 of 3.

Ober’s composure early & our ability to stay patient at the plate will dictate our success on Saturday.

[Karbo]

I think it will all come down to the hitters. Can the Twins with their 3 rookies keep putting up runs? Time will tell!

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

I think they match up well against Hoosten (yes, that's on purpose ).  The Stros have a very good team still, but are not invincible and I see our boys pulling it out in 6. 

SKOL Twins!  LET'S GOOOOOOOO!

It's a 5 game series, fyi. So hopefully they're pulling it out in 5 or less!

[Markdumont25]

Genuine question, why is Louie Varland pitching ahead of Stewart (in game 1), Pagan and even someone like Paddack or Maeda? From my understanding he's got a lot of potential but he's more of a work in progress and his season stats/ performance in the wild card series would seem to back that up. I would think he'd be at the back of the line but he got tossed into a couple high leverage spots already...was surprised by that and wondering what I'm missing.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Markdumont25 said:

Genuine question, why is Louie Varland pitching ahead of Stewart (in game 1), Pagan and even someone like Paddack or Maeda? From my understanding he's got a lot of potential but he's more of a work in progress and his season stats/ performance in the wild card series would seem to back that up. I would think he'd be at the back of the line but he got tossed into a couple high leverage spots already...was surprised by that and wondering what I'm missing.

Varland is throwing 100mph smoke with multiple offspeed pitches. whenever he matches up well against the next couple guys in the lineup, he will be called on just like every other bullpen arm. 

[Fatbat]

Somehow, some way, we may just steal game #1 and that will make the stros gamble too much in game #2. That leads to mistakes and all of a sudden, we are coming home up 2-0. Pablo May pitch into the 8th…. Chasing a no no. 

[MN_ExPat]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It's a 5 game series, fyi. So hopefully they're pulling it out in 5 or less!

Yup. Series is going to be that close. 🤣
 

Edit: Post updated to reflect the public shaming and bring into the light that I was passed through elementary school out of pity. Thank you… all now know my dark secret 🥹. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

Yup. Series is going to be that close. 🤣
 

Edit: Post updated to reflect the public shaming and bring into the light that I was passed through elementary school out of pity. Thank you… all now know my dark secret 🥹. 

I do apologize, I was just trying to be helpful! I figured you just like baseball so much you wanted an extra game.