Tale of the Tape: 2023 AL Division Series (#3 Twins vs #2 Astros)

Houston was among the teams that Rocco Baldelli’s club could have faced during the wild card round, but after the Astros caught up to Texas and won the AL West, they earned a first round bye. Now welcoming Minnesota with a home field advantage, Dusty Baker’s club will need to lose a home game if the Twins are going to emerge victorious.

Having not only slayed the 0-18 dragon against the Blue Jays, but also earning the first postseason sweep in franchise history, Minnesota is riding a high. They’ll need a new arm to start them off on the right foot.

Records
Houston Astros 90-72 (93-69 pythag) 1st AL West
Minnesota Twins 87-75 (93-69 pythag) 1st AL Central

Although plenty has been made about the AL Central being weak in 2023, the Twins found themselves knocking off an AL East foe in the first round. The AL West saw Texas knock off the Tampa Bay Rays, and Houston was sitting idle as they earned themselves a first round bye. Both Minnesota and Houston finished with identical pythagorean records, and their win totals were separated by just three games.

Winning on the road is a must for the Twins at this point, and they owned a near .500 record away from Target Field. With a 40-41 record, the Twins also took two of three in Houston. Coming in hot, Minnesota went 42-29 in the second half, and is coming off a pair of wins against the Blue Jays.

On the flip side, Houston was a better road team than they were at home this season. The Astros went 51-30 on the road while playing to just a 39-42 record at home. In both the first and second halves, Houston played to records nine games over .500. Though the Twins won the season series by a 4-2 tally, the teams were split by just four runs in Minnesota’s favor.

Rotation
With at least three games guaranteed in the Division Series, Minnesota will again turn to Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray for at least one game apiece. Joe Ryan was lined up to start the final game of the wild card round, and could be the presumed Game 1 starter. Bailey Ober will also join the 26-man roster, and sets up to be the arm used in Game 4. Kenta Maeda went unused in the wild card round, and could be an option as well.

Ryan comes in with the most gaudy ERA of the Twins starters. His 4.51 mark is largely inflated due to an inability to keep the baseball in the yard. Allowing a career worst 1.8 HR/9, Ryan has given up seven dingers across his last seven starts. 

Conversely, Ober has been rolling since returning in mid-September. Overlooked to start the year and sent back to Triple-A, he has been great each time his number has been called. He owns a 2.08 ERA across his past four outings, and the only loss in those contests was the Colorado Rockies game to end the season.

For the Astros, pitching is largely a two-headed monster. Justin Verlander is the future Hall of Famer acquired from the New York Mets at the deadline, and he’s coming off a Cy Young win while grabbing a World Series ring with the Astros last season. He’s not the same arm he was a few years ago, but he owns a 3.31 ERA for Houston this season, and dominated a Seattle Mariners lineup looking to make the playoffs his last time out.

Dusty Baker will definitely go with lefty Framber Valdez at some point, and Minnesota has struggled against southpaws this season. Valdez owns a 3.45 ERA and is among the best arms in baseball. He’s a strikeout guy that also significantly limits traffic on the bases.

Cristian Javier should be expected to pitch in Game 3, and he may be the weakest link of the arms to pitch for Houston. Owning a 4.56 ERA this season, the strikeout numbers aren’t substantial, and he does give up the longball. Hunter Brown made plenty of starts in his rookie year, but the hard-throwing righty is probably not in line to take a turn. The Astros can send J.P. France to the bump for a game, and the rookie brings a 3.83 ERA with muted strikeout numbers.

Bullpen
Minnesota’s bullpen didn’t need to do much heavy lifting during the wild card round, but they definitely held serve when called upon. Louie Varland was asked to get some big outs following both starters, and Caleb Thielbar worked around potential damage as well. Despite scuffles during the season, Griffin Jax worked well as the setup man, and Jhoan Duran earned saves in both contests.

The Astros closer is familiar to Twins fans as Ryan Pressly emerged as one of the game’s best relievers while in Minnesota. Being dealt to Houston, Pressly netted both Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala in return. It’s not just Pressly for Baker’s squad though. Kendall Graveman was added at the deadline, and rejoined a team he has familiarity with. Bryan Abreu has become one of the best setup arms in baseball, and Hector Neris has previously worked as a closer.

Houston has veteran options in the form of Phil Maton and Rafael Montero, but the latter has really struggled this season. Former starter Jose Urquidy has transitioned to a relief role, and Ryne Stanek is out there as well. The lone lefty in relief for the Astros is Bennett Sousa, and he has thrown just 6 1/3 innings this season.

Hitters
Royce Lewis obviously takes the cake as the Twins most prolific performer from the wild card round. His pair of homers against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is something that Twins fans won’t soon forget. Carlos Correa had his moment with an RBI single to kick off the scoring in Game 2, but his defense has been more notable thus far. Both the play to nail Bo Bichette at home, and the pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., were game-altering events.

Baldelli’s other rookies will continue looking to make their mark. We haven’t seen much from either Edouard Julien or Matt Wallner to this point, and veterans like Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler will want to make some noise. Alex Kirilloff made his major-league debut back in 2020 against the Astros during the postseason, and him stepping up in this series could be a fun narrative to see.

Houston’s lineup might not be seen as good as the Blue Jays, but they have plenty of talent throughout. Jose Altuve is an elite player in the box, and Alex Bregman has played at a star level this season. Minnesota is familiar with Jose Abreu from his time with the White Sox, and while he has had a down season, there’s always reason to be careful with him.

The Astros outfield leaves something to be desired when they step into the box, but Kyle Tucker separates from that group. Neither Jake Meyers or Mauricio Dubon are anything to write home about. Baker has picked his spots with Chas McCormick, and he's had a very nice year. Tucker is a legitimate superstar, and his lefty swing has produced 29 dingers in 2023.

Playing 40 games in left field this season, Yordan Alvarez can hack it in the grass, but is much more scary as the designated hitter. He’s got serious power, and although the home runs were down a bit due to games played this year, he was the 2021 ALCS MVP and has plenty of big moments tied to his name already.

Managers
Having gotten off the schneid, Baldelli now has two postseason wins to his credit. His third trip to the postseason has been much more fun, and he’ll look to keep it going against a future Hall of Famer in Dusty Baker. Baldelli pulled lots of right levers during the wild card round, and he’ll need to replicate that in Houston.

Baker is a 26-year veteran and has a whopping 2,183-1,862 record to his name. The three-time Manager of the Year winner won his first World Series last season with Houston. He will hit 100 postseason games managed during this series, and brings a 51-46 record with him.

In our look at the postseason managers, this was noted about Houston’s tendencies this season under Baker. “While not a significant stealing team, the Astros are running at a clip 15% higher than league average, which is the most Baker has led outside of his 2016 Washington Nationals team. Baker has utilized sacrifice bunts right around league average, but he has not turned to his bench in the form of pinch hitters or runners all too often.”

With a guaranteed game taking place at Target Field, Minnesota will hope to take one in Houston and give themselves a chance to advance into the American League Championship Series. What are your thoughts about the Astros as an opponent? What are you most looking forward to from this series?